Line Combos: 2017-2018 Sens

[God Says No]

Admittedly, I expected the PP to improve (how could it not, I said to myself). I also didn't anticipate Ryan and Brassard to be snake bitten, or Boucher to go into a defensive shell every time he got a 1 goal lead midway through the 2nd.

There's a lot of guesswork when projecting results with a new coach and a new system. Not nearly as much when those variables are static.

Ryan seems to have figure out his role in the new system, and Brassard should benefit from that, but as you said he likely misses the start of the season. Since I said my projections were based on healthy seasons, that 50 pts for Brass is just that, an 82 game projection, if he misses the first 10, shave off about 5-6 pts. I hadn't taken into account the rust factor though, so that's a perfectly fair observation.

Wrt Burrows, imo he's gone to a much better situation than he had in Vancouver. Went from the 2nd lowest scoring team in the league to a team that scored 30 more goals, and that same team (Ottawa) went through an adjustment period for the first 25 or so games where they scored at a much lower clip. Not sure why people think he's going to produce less than his pace with Vancouver, I think 30 pts from him would be the conservative estimate.

Time will tell, but I also think with Chabot instead of Methot, we have a more offensive backend.

This is eerily similar to the projections that I mentioned. You are overtly positive. Even though Ryan has "figured it out", I'm not sure he can translate the playoff Ryan into the regular season Ryan. Brassard will not hit 50. He'll be around 40. Chabot will be around what Methot scored, which is in the teens. I don't see Burrows hitting 30.

Basically I see the Sens slightly better offensively, but not much.

Oh you meant Burrows, in what I quoted from you it said Brassard then 20-25 so I thought thats who you were referring to. No way Brass is that low unless he misses a lot of games.

Oops. Typed Brassard, but meant Burrows.

 

[Sensinitis]

^ @GSN

You think Chabot will hit mid teens with how many GP?

 

[Micklebot]

This is eerily similar to the projections that I mentioned. You are overtly positive. Even though Ryan has "figured it out", I'm not sure he can translate the playoff Ryan into the regular season Ryan. Brassard will not hit 50. He'll be around 40. Chabot will be around what Methot scored, which is in the teens. I don't see Burrows hitting 30.

Basically I see the Sens slightly better offensively, but not much.



Oops. Typed Brassard, but meant Burrows.

My projections for Ryan are based on 3 year prior to this on pacing at 57 pts, and the expectation that he won't play with a broken hand for 2/3 of the season. This season was a very clear outlier in terms of his production, and we saw in the playoffs that it isn't a case of him no longer be physically capable due to age so my suspicion is his lack of production was due to both learning a new system and the well documented injuries.

Chabot getting in the mid teens would be pretty disappointing, compared him similar caliber prospects at the same age (he will be 20), provorov, werenski, Carlson, Hamilton Meszaros, Maata, heck even Ceci cracked 20 pts as a 20 year old. So long as Chabot plays the games, Chabot will be in a very good spot to put up points because he will get PP time, likely with Karlsson. You projecting him to produce Wideman's numbers but unlike Wideman, Chabot will not be blocked from the PP by Karlsson.

Burrows goes from scoring at a 30 point pace playing on the 2nd lowest scoring team in the league to playing for a team that score 30 more goals than his previous team. Bouchard has shown a willingness to give him 2nd unit PP time (which he wasn't getting in vancouver) and mins in the top 6. Age is often listed as a concern, but Burrows still skates well, so I don't foresee a drop-off because of that.

I also suspect that attention will be paid to the PP this offseason. Training camp will be devoted to refining things like that instead of implementing a brand new system. We might be able to drag our PP u up to average

Like I said, time will tell. I won't be right about everything, but I doubt I will be wrong about everything either.

 

[trentmccleary]

Boucher seems capable of managing 4-5 x 50+ point players.
Tampa Bay had the big 3 during his tenure (SS, MSL, VL) and guys like Malone, Purcell and Downie filled out the rest:
1year = 4x 50+ and between 31-40
2year = 5x 48+ and next highest being 28.
3year = 5x on pace for 50+, next highest on pace for over 40+

And that was with 3 players dominating the offensive ice time... not essentially two 1B lines.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Boucher seems capable of managing 4-5 x 50+ point players.
Tampa Bay had the big 3 during his tenure (SS, MSL, VL) and guys like Malone, Purcell and Downie filled out the rest:
1year = 4x 50+ and between 31-40
2year = 5x 48+ and next highest being 28.
3year = 5x on pace for 50+, next highest on pace for over 40+

And that was with 3 players dominating the offensive ice time... not essentially two 1B lines.

Was this in doubt? Why is this a question?

 

[trentmccleary]

Was this in doubt? Why is this a question?

Because:
The PP was bad
Guy was quick to shorten his bench in all situations
Guy was very defensive minded
Brassard and Ryan had terrible seasons
People are posting projections expecting those players to continue to struggle

 

[Micklebot]

Because:
The PP was bad
Guy was quick to shorten his bench in all situations
Guy was very defensive minded
Brassard and Ryan had terrible seasons
People are posting projections expecting those players to continue to struggle

Last year the team spent the first quarter (and all of training camp) learning a system. Practice throughout the season focused on fixing issues with our defensive play.

This year, it will be interesting to see why issues the coaching staff looks to correct early on. (crosses fingers whispering Power play over and over)

Our 4th line looks as though it will have Boucher's trust defensively, with Thompson and Pyatt, two guys Boucher very much liked from his TBay days, likely playing together. Interestingly, they were linemates back then at times used in defensive roles.

If we can have a 4th line that eats the tough deployment without bleeding goals, it will pay dividends for the top three lines. Will be nice not having Chris Neil and Kelly eat up a chunk of the soft deployment.

Dorion also mentioned in an interview that early this past season, in training camp, Boucher told him that there's no way Boro and Wideman could play together. We all know that they ended up playing together, but I don't think Boucher ever trusted the tandem, which can be seen in their butter soft deployment. I'm hopeful that some combination of Harpur, Jaros, Claesson and Chabot can form a new bottom pair that will earn Boucher's trust, and take on some more difficult deployment that last years bottom pair couldn't. Once again, if that happens, everyone will benefit, even if it means the bottom pair won't have shinny fancy stats.

The last thing I'm hopeful for is that we won't go into the defensive shell quite as early on this coming season; no more extreme trap halfway through the second period with a 1 goal lead.

 

[aragorn]

This could give us an idea as to how many pts each player could achieve as well as each line for next season. Obviously, everyone has different lineups & lines but calculating the players could help in understanding how the overall team could do. I specifically lowballed every player's production & it still seems that the team could still do well so IMO we should expect better results from last season offensively. Obviously some players will reach or exceed the pt totals while others will fall short for whatever reasons most likely injuries & their replacements may or may not produce similar numbers, most likely not.

Smith (25) - Turris (50) - Stone (50) - 125 - 150 pt
MacArthur (25) - Brassard (40) - Ryan (45) - 100 - 125 pts
Hoffman (40) - Pageau (35) - Dzingel (25) - 75 - 100 pts
Burrows (20) - Thompson (20) - Pyatt (20) - 50 - 75 pts

Forwards total - 395 pts (prospects & injury replacements could also add some pts)

Boroweicki (5) - Karlsson (70) - 75 - 100 pts
Phaneuf (30) - Ceci (20) - 50 - 75 pts
Claesson (10) - Wideman (15) - 25 -50 pts

Defence totals - 150 pts

Total team production - 545 pts - they could produce more or less than this, we'll see.

- is that a playoff team? Yes, based on these pt totals alone, IF all goes well.
- is that a regular season divisional leader or conference leader. Maybe.

Of course, we have to have at the least the same goaltending as last yr but hopefully, it will be even better with Condon playing more games this season.

 

[Liver King]

Hoffman-Turris-Dzingel
Smith-Pageau-Stone
Macarthur-Brass-Ryan
Pyatt-Thompson-Burrows

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

This id how I'd like to see the lines shake out. Probably the best forward depth this team has ever had.

Hoffman-Turris-Stone
Macarthur-Brassard-Ryan
Smith-Pageau-Burrows
Pyatt-Thompson-Dzingel

 

[Agent Zub]

This id how I'd like to see the lines shake out. Probably the best forward depth this team has ever had.

Hoffman-Turris-Stone
Macarthur-Brassard-Ryan
Smith-Pageau-Burrows
Pyatt-Thompson-Dzingel

uhhh

Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson
Schaefer-Smolinksi-Havlat
Vermette-Fisher-Eaves
Varada-Kelly-Neil

???

not to mention the pre-lockout teams

 

[trentmccleary]

Total team production - 545 pts - they could produce more or less than this, we'll see.

- is that a playoff team? Yes, based on these pt totals alone, IF all goes well.
- is that a regular season divisional leader or conference leader. Maybe.
.

545 points is roughly 218 goals (2.5 points per goal), that was 20th in thhe NHL last year.

 

[Cosmix]

545 points is roughly 218 goals (2.5 points per goal), that was 20th in thhe NHL last year.

Yes, and I hope they score more than 218 goals next year.

The Sens scored 206 and gave up 210 goals last year. If they score 218 by improving The PP, and play better defensively to reduce GA, they might make the playoffs again.

 

[Xspyrit]

My projections for Ryan are based on 3 year prior to this on pacing at 57 pts, and the expectation that he won't play with a broken hand for 2/3 of the season. This season was a very clear outlier in terms of his production, and we saw in the playoffs that it isn't a case of him no longer be physically capable due to age so my suspicion is his lack of production was due to both learning a new system and the well documented injuries.

I haven't been participating much since the end of the ECF and as I randomly read this post I was wondering why do we have to repeat simple facts like this? It should be a given by now.

This id how I'd like to see the lines shake out. Probably the best forward depth this team has ever had.

Hoffman-Turris-Stone
MacArthur-Brassard-Ryan
Smith-Pageau-Burrows
Pyatt-Thompson-Dzingel

This is exactly how I think it will go (maybe switch Pyatt and Dzingel). It makes the most sense as well based on strengths and chemistry. White and Paul will make their way on the team and eventually graduate but it might take an injury or two.

What we know is that Ryan and MacArthur have to be healthy and make Brassard produce and that HTS has to be dominant like they could. 4th line is actually a strength now. Burrows and Dzingel might share offensive opportunities.

 

[Viletho]

To start to season if Brassard isn't ready to start.

Hoffman-Turris-Dzingle
Smith-Pageau-Stone
Mac-White-Ryan
Burrows-Thompson-Pyatt.

Our 3 first line have offensive potential. I think you give the defensive assignment to Pageau's line.

White is greatly support by Ryan and Mac.

Turris has played well with Dzingle and Hoffman is in an offensive role.

Than the 4th line is very solid imo.

When Brassard come back. Than you look who perform well or not so well.

I put White because I think he will come and have a strong camp.

 

[aragorn]

545 points is roughly 218 goals (2.5 points per goal), that was 20th in thhe NHL last year.

Without checking I initially had them at 595 pts & thought it was too high, should have kept it there but I also low balled every player & a few of them I assume will produce more while a couple could produce less due to injury.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

To start to season if Brassard isn't ready to start.

Hoffman-Turris-Dzingle
Smith-Pageau-Stone
Mac-White-Ryan
Burrows-Thompson-Pyatt.

Our 3 first line have offensive potential. I think you give the defensive assignment to Pageau's line.

White is greatly support by Ryan and Mac.

Turris has played well with Dzingle and Hoffman is in an offensive role.

Than the 4th line is very solid imo.

When Brassard come back. Than you look who perform well or not so well.

I put White because I think he will come and have a strong camp.

With Brassard out, I would expect Thompson to be our 3C to start the season. I'd be very surprised if White is given 3rd line minutes under Boucher over Thompson or switching Smith back to C. I only say that because Boucher seems very adverse to giving minutes to less experienced players.

 

[Brannstorm]

I feel like Chabot is going to score a lot of points next season. (82 games, 53 points?)

The reasons being:

he is so smooth and fast. His hands are smooth, his feet are unreal.

He has an amazing attitude towards always learning. And it has shown every year how he gets better from sens training camp or world juniors whatever it may be. Even in his draft year he came on strong in the second half. I think he just learned throughout the year and it really sinks in with him.

If he doesn't get injured then I feel he is going to go spongebob and soak up all the EK wisdom straight to the Calder Trophy.

And maybe Conn Smythe?? haha #MattMurrayurraybewinningmorecupsthanyearsplayed

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Chabot could definitely clean up with secondary assists on the PP if he gets the left point job next to Karlsson.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

uhhh

Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson
Schaefer-Smolinksi-Havlat
Vermette-Fisher-Eaves
Varada-Kelly-Neil

???

not to mention the pre-lockout teams

Lol alright short memory here but you get my drift, the depth is really strong which is at least a nice change from the last few years.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I haven't been participating much since the end of the ECF and as I randomly read this post I was wondering why do we have to repeat simple facts like this? It should be a given by now.



This is exactly how I think it will go (maybe switch Pyatt and Dzingel). It makes the most sense as well based on strengths and chemistry. White and Paul will make their way on the team and eventually graduate but it might take an injury or two.

What we know is that Ryan and MacArthur have to be healthy and make Brassard produce and that HTS has to be dominant like they could. 4th line is actually a strength now. Burrows and Dzingel might share offensive opportunities.

Yes if Brass Mac and Ryan can have a bounce back year and our D can figure out the loss of Methot, we could find ourselves even better than expected.

 

[Canadian Time]

With Brassard out, I would expect Thompson to be our 3C to start the season. I'd be very surprised if White is given 3rd line minutes under Boucher over Thompson or switching Smith back to C. I only say that because Boucher seems very adverse to giving minutes to less experienced players.

We keep saying that but I don't think it's necessarily his overall MO. None of the younger players exactly kicked down the door when they had the chance under Boucher. As we saw with Harpur at the end of the year, if they show something he'll play them. Thompson would likely start above White at the beginning of the year and during any game, but White will get his shifts during the game and it's up to him to stay.

That's the beauty of depth, the kids aren't automatically handed jobs, they have to earn them.

 

[aragorn]

Let's try something a little different with this lineup.

Hoffman - Turris - Ryan - very skilled trio
Smith - Brassard - Stone - played well before together
MacArthur - Pageau - Burrows - three smart, fast, defensively responsible & offensively opportunistic
Dzingel - Thompson - Pyatt - very fast 4th line who hopefully play with some tenacity

Phaneuf - Karlsson - two best defencemen play together
Boroweicki - Ceci - played well together in the past & specifically in Bingo
Claesson - Wideman - should get the puck out quicker this yr

Anderson - Condon - hopefully play better & Anderson is around more

 

[GWNR]

Boro in the top 4 is so depressing.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Let's try something a little different with this lineup.

Hoffman - Turris - Ryan - very skilled trio
Smith - Brassard - Stone - played well before together
MacArthur - Pageau - Burrows - three smart, fast, defensively responsible & offensively opportunistic
Dzingel - Thompson - Pyatt - very fast 4th line who hopefully play with some tenacity

Phaneuf - Karlsson - two best defencemen play together
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Boroweicki - Ceci - played well together in the past & specifically in Bingo
Claesson - Wideman - should get the puck out quicker this yr

Anderson - Condon - hopefully play better & Anderson is around more

Boro in the top 4 is so depressing.

I was going to say ... you had me right up until --------------------------