Discussion in 'Calgary Flames' started by Method Man, Jul 13, 2017.
Really? How do you figure?
Mangiapane is putting up over a PPG in a professional league. If Gawdin comes in and puts up even close to a PPG in the AHL next year I'll be amazed. Most overagers that break the 100 point barrier never even become NHL players. Look at the WHL's top scorers from each year, look at how old they are, and which ones actually became NHL players.
Kylington I'm not even remotely as high on as most Flames fans, so I'm not touching that one.
You can't really compare numbers like that given that one guy is much older and has significantly more experience than the other. I think Gawdin's year-to-year progression suggests he should be capable of doing what Mangiapane is doing by the time he's played two years of pro hockey.
Gawdin is only 11 months younger then Mangiapane. Mangiapane is showing lots of promise this year imo.
But Mangiapane has also played two years of pro hockey now. Age doesn't matter nearly as much as experience at a given level imo
Gawdin ahead of Mangiapane? I've never been a huge Mangiapane fan, but my god what an absolutely terrible opinion.
One hundred percent of the hesitancy re: Gawdin has to do with the fact that he's playing in the WHL as opposed to the AHL. Had he been signed, like he clearly should have been, there would be very different opinions in this thread.
Yes, because then a lot of the uncertainty would be removed, one way or another.
That's fair. Like I've said, he certainly still has a long way left to go.
I really don't even have Gawdin ahead of Phillips or Tuulola. He's a nice prospect to have but from what I've seen he's closer to a Spencer Foo than a Mangiapane in terms of skill. Phillips is doing what he's doing at age 19 and with way more filling out left, and Tuulola has a certain ability that I think will translate to the NHL level seamlessly.
I’m still kinda optimistic about Tuulola. I feel like he’s a guy, that if he figures out could be a topline player. Compare a guy like Poirier, if he figures out might be a 3rd liner.
The fact he wasn't signed should be more telling. He also was then not re-drafted. Nor was he immediately signed by another team.
The fact though is that in retrospect all of those moves (not being signed, not being re-drafted, etc) seem puzzling because he was taking big strides in every WHL season, and at a certain point saying "well, this this and this didn't happen in the past therefore he is probably not a good player" becomes less and less of an argument based on what he's done thus far. You wouldn't say the same things about Mangiapane, for insance, even though he was an overager, because he's proven now that he can play pro hockey. His junior career means very little.
I don't necessarily expect Gawdin to become a monster offensive force in the NHL, but he can clearly play hockey and I think he has an excellent shot at reaching his ceiling. We'll see what happens when he plays for Stockton but he's done a pretty good job of proving the other 30 teams wrong up to this point. I don't really know what else he could do.
Because the strides he took are not that uncommon in overage players?
There are almost literally guys that do what he did this year every year as overagers that don't even become half decent AHL forwards, let alone NHL forwards.
I'd love for him to prove me wrong, but I've seen so many Hitman overagers alone light it up and then fail to do anything as a pro.
I think you misunderstood what I meant when I said he'd taken big strides; I'm referring to both his D+1 and D+2 years in addition to this one. For a fourth-round pick, both those were solid years where he improved each showing - St Louis really had nothing to lose by signing him. There's been a marked improvement this year in his overage season of course, but nothing indicated that he wasn't worth signing.
To go on, I do think Gawdin's ceiling is low compared to most of the other guys I have in our top five, but I think he has the best chance of any of our prospects (Ruzicka is the only other guy I put nearby) to reach his ceiling based on the fact that he can dominate a league and isn't underperforming as an overager. It's a tradeoff between having a "for sure" hockey player vs the "mystery box" of someone like Parsons or Kylington.
"For sure" hockey player? Nope. Can't agree. Not even remotely close. Parsons and Kylington we at least have some idea of how they look in a professional setting.
Brett Sonne, Brandon Kozun, Linden Vey, Brendan Shinnimin, Ty Rattie, Adam Hughesman, Emerson Etem, Michael St. Croix, Colin Smith, Justin Feser, Mitch Holmberg, Trevor Cox, Adam Brooks, Dryden Hunt, Brayden Burke, Jace Hawyrluk.
Recognize many? Those are the players that broke 100 points since 2008-09 season to the 15-16 season in the WHL as overagers. The best NHL careers out of the bunch have been Vey and Etem, and neither are anything to write home about.
Adam Brooks is a good recent comparison, and look how well he translated.
Adam Brooks hockey statistics and profile at hockeydb.com
You're intentionally ignoring about half my post every time to try to make the point you want to make. I think it's great that Gawdin is leading the WHL as a 20-year-old, but that's not the reason I think highly of him. I put him in our top prospects because it is logical that he would be leading the WHL in scoring based on what he had done the previous two years. This season has just confirmed that he has the skill to play pro hockey, but he's taken a big step every year. Had he been Flames property last summer, I probably would've included him in our top ten.
I don't know why St Louis chose not to sign him, but teams make dumb decisions all the time. We'll see what he can do in Stockton, but to me it's his complete body of work for Swift Current that makes me think he's better than your typical overager.
Believe it or not, I don't HAVE to address every single point you make. Especially when I feel it ties into the other half you are talking about. I'm not ignoring that you think he's made strides in every season post being drafted. I'm saying professional scouts who know a lot more than us who stat watch. Not to mention his linemates quality this season. You say nothing to show he isn't worth signing, I gave you 17 names that suggest it's not a big deal to not sign him.
You say he has the most likelihood to be an NHL player because he can dominate 16-17 year old kids, and have said he's a better prospect than Mangipane, or what Mangiapane has proven against MEN in a professional league is lesser than what Gawdin has done. I couldn't disagree more that he's a "for sure".
You haven't made an argument that can't be summarized by looking at his stat line yet. If you had said "I like his motor, I think he can carve out an energy role" or "I think he could be a third line scoring option someday because his shot is lethal" I could understand that you like him for a reason, but so far all you've stated is some stuff about how he's progressed since he was drafted.
I can see an argument for him to make our top ten, mostly because our dropoff after the top 5-6 is quite severe. But to say he's top five, proving more than Mangiapane this year, or a safer bet than Kylington (whom I don't think is even remotely a lock to be a career NHL defenseman) and Parsons because he's dominating junior at 20 years old with potential top 10 draft picks playing on his wings isn't something I will argue about.
I'd love for Gawdin to prove me wrong. I said the EXACT same things about Mangipane, that we should be excited but temper our expectations until we see how he does in a professional setting. Saying he's a top 5 prospect for us or a safe bet to make the NHL is a reach at this point and time.
Gawdin reminds me of Nathan Barrett. Except Barrett was better in his draft and draft plus 1 seasons. In his overage season Barrett was 1st in assists and points and 4th in goals. He eventually topped out as a 60 point AHLer, I expect the same from Gawdin.
I will at least concede that while right now I like Gawdin's odds, pretty much every player looks different from year to year. It probably has more to do with the thinness of our prospect pool right now than anything else that I would rank a guy like him as high as I do. Mainly I don't see a lot that differentiates the guy from a typical free agent signing other than that I think he's done pretty well in the years since he's been drafted, so I consider him the same way I'd consider an FA signing who performed really well pre-contract (e.g. Foo).
In regards to your point about me not making any particular arguments about Gawdin's skillset, it was certainly tough to get a beat on him based on his play at Penticton, but I like the fact that his compete was high and he came in and earned a position. It's been about 50/50 with those sorts of guys for us over the years - you have your Van Brabants and Wolfs but also guys like Hathaway and Jooris who elbowed their way into the NHL. I think a willingness to compete and work ethic is a big factor for depth players and mid/late picks. And it's not ideal, but the fact that he's a right shot means he has a better chance at making this roster in a few years than someone like Ruzicka. Clearly Gawdin has skill and intelligence, coaches and Flames staff like his defense, he's also been Swift Current's captain for a few years now. If he's profiting from his linemates, he at least knows how to play with skilled players. He's not overly physical, so he wasn't just signed because truculence. Those are all big reasons I'm excited.
None of these guys are certainties, and way better prospects have failed to make the NHL. I was thrilled with Klimchuk after his junior career, and it's beginning to look like he might never make this team.
I think what most people are basically saying Cyrano, is that producing in the AHL is fairly predictive of NHL success. Guys like Kylington and Mangiapane and Andersson are trending towards the NHL.
While guys like Gawdin, Ruzicka, Phillips, and Joly still have lots to prove at higher levels.
Valimaki is a shot generating machine in the WHL. 155 sog in 37 games that and seeing him play makes me think he's having an unlucky season offensively. He's 19th in shots by a D man and has 30 less games played than almost all of the guys ahead of him.
And although +/- means nothing, he has a better +/- taking tougher comp with worse team mates this season.
This would be excellent news... hopefully Stone is moved over the summer. We need a spot on RD for a young-un
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