Whileee
Registered User
- May 29, 2010
- 46,061
- 33,043
I love how people want to destroy +/- as having any usefulness at all. That is simply hogwash but the fancy stats movement didn't invent it so it sucks.
Plus minus is flawed. Corsi is flawed, fenwick is flawed WAR is flawed, eye test is flawed.
If hockey was an easy sport to measure, someone would have invented effective measurement of it.
Hockey is a wonderful beast, magical and hard to measure. The key I think is to use all the different methods possible to get an overall view and FORM your own opinon.
I use myself as a measure in my 'hockey career'
I have always been a defensive defenseman. I pride myself in shutting down the other team's best players.
I feel like I am decent at transitioning the puck out of my zone and very good at recovering it.
I always measure my plus minus, because it matters to me. I want to be on the ice for more goals for than against (honestly, I just don't want to be on the ice for goals against). I believe in preventing first, and then creating.
If a player demonstrated a plus rating year over year, on different teams, in different scenarios or with different partners, it's safe to assume that he is driving wins for that team. I know plus minus depends on circumstance and who you play with, and SOME people either benefit or suffer from that, but at the end of the day the stat still has value and THAT is why the NHL still uses it.
JMHO
There's an easy improvement to the +/- stat. It's the 5v5 GF%. This is essentially a plus/minus but eliminates special teams and extra man situations (like pluses for short-handed goals or empty-net goals). It's still a bit of an unstable stat because there is still "luck" involved, though I think it has too often been overstated because I don't think a lot of "advanced" stats accurately track the danger level of shots again and the factors that lead to goals against. As an example, I think the Jets have been much better at preventing those top-end chances that led to so many goals last season. So, some of the reduced goals against is better goaltending, but I also think that they are better at systematically protecting the danger areas in front of the net and bang-bang plays. They are also pretty good at generating good shots from the slot area. This is illustrated in the following two graphics.
Now look at the Jets shot generation by location in the previous season. It's clear that they are better this season in generating shots from the slot area than they were last season.