2017-18 stats and underlying metrics thread [Mod: updated season]

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garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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www.hockey-graphs.com
Thought it was time to move on to the next year.

For those new to the board, I run a stats thread like this each year in order to not spam those who do not want to see certain things.

Here you will find things like:
* random numbers I find interesting that are not being written in an article
* me brainstorming ideas for articles
* links to statistical articles I (or others) have found around the in
* questions you have of things you want me to research, and my answers
* any stats work YOU have done

WINNIPEG JETS DEPTHCHART

G Ondrej Pavelec
Michael Hutchinson
* Click the links to see an analytical focused write up on each player
* These are not lines so do not get stuck up on the order at any position... they are not even in order of my opinion of good to bad

INTRODUCTION TO SHOT METRICS
* Underlying metrics are stupid.... stupid easy
* Limits of Corsi: What can and can't it do
* Importance and misconceptions of hockey analytics
* Some of the most important pieces in hockey analytics

STATISTICAL BASED WEBSITES:

Arctic Ice Hockey - Winnipeg Jets blog that commonly dips into shot metrics (by yours truly) but not limited to
Extra Skater - the most in-depth
Behind The Net - the original website for gaining shot metrics on players and teams
Nice Time on Ice - another raw data site (but different) like Behind the Net
Hockey Analysis - third raw data site I (and others) commonly use, has advantages and disadvantages compared to BTN
Some Kind of Ninja - player usage charts and super shot tracker
Hockey Abstract - place to get GVT, player usage charts and quality starts (amongst other things), by Rob Volman of HP and ESPN
 
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YWGinYYZ

Registered User
Jul 3, 2011
28,480
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Toronto

Cool. Here's an idea: you wrote an article (or was it truck - same-same :sarcasm:) about how LLF is a very good 1st line, and showed how they placed in the league based on RelCorsi and GF% - would be interesting (or perhaps depressing ;)) to see how the other lines that we think will get put together would stack up, at least in the Central.

If I wasn't so lazy, I'd use the template from the published article to do it myself. :dunce:
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
Cool. Here's an idea: you wrote an article (or was it truck - same-same :sarcasm:) about how LLF is a very good 1st line, and showed how they placed in the league based on RelCorsi and GF% - would be interesting (or perhaps depressing ;)) to see how the other lines that we think will get put together would stack up, at least in the Central.

If I wasn't so lazy, I'd use the template from the published article to do it myself. :dunce:

I did do an series on the lines that Maurice was hinting at:

Ladd-Little-Frolik
Byfuglien-Schiefele-Wheeler
Kane-Perreault-O`Dell

But ya... Some ideas like what you are saying may be done this summer.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
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Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
Tyler Dellow (mc79hockey) => NHL team per Bob Mckenzie
Sunny Mehta (Battle of Alberta) => NJD
Eric Tulsky (Outnumbered and NHL Numbers) => NHL team per himself
Kyle Dubas (not blogger but was always interacting with us) => Toronto Maple Leafs


Summer of bloggers.
 

truck

Registered User
Jun 27, 2012
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www.arcticicehockey.com
Tyler Dellow (mc79hockey) => NHL team per Bob Mckenzie
Sunny Mehta (Battle of Alberta) => NJD
Eric Tulsky (Outnumbered and NHL Numbers) => NHL team per himself
Kyle Dubas (not blogger but was always interacting with us) => Toronto Maple Leafs


Summer of bloggers.

Bobby Mac says Dellow to the Oilers.
 

Aavco Cup

"I can make you cry in this room"
Sep 5, 2013
37,630
10,440
@TSNBobMcKenzie: BTW, in shameless plug department, my new book @HkyConfidential, out Oct. 14, has a chapter devoted to #fancystats. Some fascinating stuff.
 

ps241

The Ballad of Ville Bobby
Sponsor
Mar 10, 2010
34,831
30,981
Tyler Dellow (mc79hockey) => NHL team per Bob Mckenzie
Sunny Mehta (Battle of Alberta) => NJD
Eric Tulsky (Outnumbered and NHL Numbers) => NHL team per himself
Kyle Dubas (not blogger but was always interacting with us) => Toronto Maple Leafs


Summer of bloggers.

Waiting for the Jets announcement ;)
 

jamiebez

Registered User
Apr 5, 2005
4,025
327
Ottawa
Wasn't sure where to put this.... this thread seems to be a good a spot as any. Another thought-provoking read by Elliotte Friedman

http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/hockey/opinion/2014/08/in-search-of-vic-ferrari.html

If you were to give me five hockey analytics versus five GMs or vice-presidents of hockey operations or five coaches -- five coaches especially -- to weigh a player, I'd take [the latters'] opinion ... A lot of analytics would have very young teams that won't win.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
21,738
4,380
Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com

ps241

The Ballad of Ville Bobby
Sponsor
Mar 10, 2010
34,831
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Eakins on Hustler and Lawless talking about Tyler Dellow, stats, and video:
http://audioboo.fm/boos/2380985-tsn-1290-hustler-and-lawless-dallas-eakins-augst-7-2014

Interesting interview. Funny how the little he did give up was exactly what got me into the analytics. In short when your eyes match up with what the stats say then it's perfect. When your eyes and gut are telling you one thing and the stats say something else about a player either positively or negatively "it starts a conversation" . That is the essence of self improvement in life IMO. I learned tw0 key things. Firstly, I had sold Eakins short which is never a smart thing. secondly, adding Dellow was Eakins idea so maybe there is hope for the Jets to add a similar resource.

Another comment from the interview that resonated for me was when Dallas said Roger Neilson use to get mocked for using video before the other teams used it and everyone felt it was a passing phase and he feels that is the same path analytics is on now.
 
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YWGinYYZ

Registered User
Jul 3, 2011
28,480
7,117
Toronto
Ugly haha

I think it was more than fine - you started out really well, and had them hooked initially, with the simple explanation.

If I can offer a word of advice: stay away from the more esoteric bits of the 'advanced stats'. When you explained Corsi / Fenwick initially as (paraphrasing here):

Corsi is basically shots for vs. shots against. Good teams and players are over 50%. Can be considered a proxy for possession, and trends show that a strong Corsi team will win more often than a poor Corsi team.

... you had them hooked. They responded with something that showed they got the basic concept. I think it started to unravel a bit when you undermined their basic understanding by going deeper into some of the peculiarities of the stats themselves.

Perhaps present one of your 'advanced stats for dummies' links for further reading, and stick to helping them understand the very basics of Corsi/Fenwick and how it's useful. Possibly compare it to +/-, as that's one that all media seems to latch on to as being 'important', when really it's not at all reliable.

I enjoyed the interview - just thought I'd mention a few things I'd try. When I teach courses, I try to get people 'hooked' and get them involved in the conversation - it tends to stick with them better when I'm able to reel them in, and make them think about it. If I offer up too much, it's counter productive, as they can't retain and absorb it.
 

EastRiver

Registered User
Jul 1, 2012
1,314
68
Canada
Garret, can you include your Introduction to Advanced Statistic article your wrote this summer in the OP?

EDIT: Nevermind.
 
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