Speculation: 2017-18 Roster Discussion - Part 6

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The Gongshow

Fire JBB
Jul 17, 2014
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Yes, we keep sheltering he will never develop fully. And how long is a bit? We bring in McDonagh and resign him then it's 5 years before he gets off the 3rd pair. We keep him protected too long and he turns into Koekkoek who never becomes anything close to what we hoped.

Hedman was playing top minutes at 19, he was getting tough assignments. Look at McAvoy who was drafted a few spots after Sergachev, he's getting top minutes and thriving. If we give Sergachev some actual responsibility he may show us we don't need McDonagh. I'm all for giving our guys a chance till it's apparent we need to find someone else. I want to see Sergachev and Koekkoek playing more and not McDonagh. I think we can win with them and we don't need a LD. On the right Dotchin sucks and Sustr is ok as a 6/7, I'm all for a fix on that side.

Thats very true, they could pan out, the might not. Maybe take McD for the 1.4 years and go all in with Serg, he'll be about 21 and maybe ready to roll.

I agree that we need help on the RD as well, We definitely need a top 4 RD, besides Stralman we don't have one. Karlsson would be nice but to expensive, if he rally wants to be in Tampa we'll try when he's a UFA.
 

Sky04

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Jan 8, 2009
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This Killorn guy is about to blow his career high out this year but apparently he hasn't been seen since Oct? Not worth his contract? Move him for a bag of pucks?
 

DFC

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That depends. The "all in teams" don't always win but it helps their chances. Off the top of my head

Pens dealt for Hossa and got to the SCF -and I cannot argue they'd have made it that far without him
NYR dealt for Nash and sustained incredible success through his tenure
Lightning dealt for Sydor and won in 2004 -I cannot argue we'd have won it without him
You mentioned Gaborik to LA -I cannot argue they'd have won without him
The Oilers traded for Pronger and although he wasn't a TDL player they made the SCF - No way they make it that far without him
The Penguins traded for Kessel and he CERTAINLY helped them win 2 Cups

I'm not trying to say we "need" to make a move but to be perfectly blunt I put our odds as follows

Round 1 vs wild card or Toronto 75% confident we win
Round 2 vs Boston - I'm about 50% confident we win
Round 3 vs Metro winner- I'm about 40% confident we win if it's a pain in the ass team like New Jersey or if it's Pittsburgh. I'm confident in 50/50 if we play the Caps
Round 4 vs West winner - 65% sure we win it all because we've historically matched up very well against the West and depending on who we face it could be over in 5 and I really do think we can catch a lucky break this year unless it's Nashville or Winnipeg

It's not that I don't think we can win. It's that I'm not even sure we're making it out of the East.

Going all in helps the odds and if we don't win it this year it's fine. We don't have to panic. It just means we come back next year with a huge chip on our shoulder and WITH an improved defense.

Most of the deals you're talking about weren't TDL deals.

I'm just saying. Teams who "go all in" at the TDL don't tend to win cups. But they do lose a ton of assets. Not saying we shouldn't do what we can to improve the team, but we should be cautious about it.
 

These Are The Days

Oh no! We suck again!!
May 17, 2014
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Most of the deals you're talking about weren't TDL deals.

I'm just saying. Teams who "go all in" at the TDL don't tend to win cups. But they do lose a ton of assets. Not saying we shouldn't do what we can to improve the team, but we should be cautious about it.

No not all of them were TDL but they were "all in" moves that helped their team. I made a different post about our odds and depending on what stage of the playoffs there's stretches where I don't think we have a shot any better than 50/50 depending on the opponent. I agree we should be cautious but I'm not the type of person who gets sentimental about trading a developing 19 year old who doesn't kill penalties, doesn't make regular defensive zone starts, has been sheltered by Stralman all year AND is hitting the wall along with late round draft choices and a prospect who might end up getting the Richard Panik treatment. The kid has so far to go that I feel like a top 15 (possibly 10) defenseman in the game is more than a fair return.

Sergachev vs McDonagh is like having dollar versus an uncommon coin from another country that's worth less but you hope will be worth more than a dollar some day.
 

These Are The Days

Oh no! We suck again!!
May 17, 2014
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Tampa Bay
And for what it's worth, I think it's overlooked here that should we win a Cup this year and next year, those pesky Killorn and Callahan contracts are probably more easily moved because they won their Cups already.
 

Bolt 45

Registered User
Oct 19, 2015
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To be honest, the success rate on that "all-in" list isn't great. It's also missing Caps-Shattenkirk, and Rags-Yandle, more recently. Basically, it's a crap shoot in terms of Cups netted. It might work, it might not.

We haven't run around circles enough yet, so I'll champion the minor play for a guy like Hjalmarsson yet again. I think he shores up our defense just enough. I'm only okay with McD if it involves some Yzermagic.

Also, part of me can't help but wonder what happens with the Kings in the offseason if they fall short. Yes, I'm thinking about the unthinkable. If we're gonna break the bank, why not just wait and go all-in on a single, glorious rental year of Doughty?
 

HoseEmDown

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Mar 25, 2012
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No not all of them were TDL but they were "all in" moves that helped their team. I made a different post about our odds and depending on what stage of the playoffs there's stretches where I don't think we have a shot any better than 50/50 depending on the opponent. I agree we should be cautious but I'm not the type of person who gets sentimental about trading a developing 19 year old who doesn't kill penalties, doesn't make regular defensive zone starts, has been sheltered by Stralman all year AND is hitting the wall along with late round draft choices and a prospect who might end up getting the Richard Panik treatment. The kid has so far to go that I feel like a top 15 (possibly 10) defenseman in the game is more than a fair return.

Sergachev vs McDonagh is like having dollar versus an uncommon coin from another country that's worth less but you hope will be worth more than a dollar some day.

Please tell me how they were "all in" moves? Trading the equivalent of Namestnikov + Erne + 1st + Bournival is going for It? If that's all it takes I make that move every time, I'd even add a Joseph or Cirelli to it. The problem is that's not the ask so those trades aren't similar.
 

AndreRoy

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Jan 3, 2018
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Also, part of me can't help but wonder what happens with the Kings in the offseason if they fall short. Yes, I'm thinking about the unthinkable. If we're gonna break the bank, why not just wait and go all-in on a single, glorious rental year of Doughty?

It’d be fun to watch but I’m still championing the idea of Alec Martinez. Three more years left on his deal, can play either side and on the PK...he’d give us a lot of flexibility and could probably be had for a reasonable price.
 

VoluntaryDom

Formerly DominicBoltsFan / Ⓐ / ✞
Oct 31, 2016
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It’d be fun to watch but I’m still championing the idea of Alec Martinez. Three more years left on his deal, can play either side and on the PK...he’d give us a lot of flexibility and could probably be had for a reasonable price.
Don't see LA trading him sadly. He would be a great fit here.
 

HoseEmDown

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There's a reason LA went out and got Phaneuf, Martinez hasn't been good enough this year.
 

AndreRoy

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There's a reason LA went out and got Phaneuf, Martinez hasn't been good enough this year.

I haven’t seen much of LA this season so you may well be right (or it could be simply that they traded a bad contract that was useless to them for a bad contract that they can at least get some use out of - I don’t know.) But if he at least looks like a solid bottom pairing defenseman and could maintain that standard for another few years I’d still do it, as he would be an immediate upgrade on Coburn for 3LD and our PK and would give us some flexibility in terms of what to do with Girardi after next season. Alternatively he’d probably still be an upgrade on Dotchin even if his level of play has fallen somewhat. But if he looks like he’s about to take a serious turn for the worse and end up in Coburn Country then I agree we shouldn’t pursue him.
 

HoseEmDown

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Mar 25, 2012
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I haven’t seen much of LA this season so you may well be right (or it could be simply that they traded a bad contract that was useless to them for a bad contract that they can at least get some use out of - I don’t know.) But if he at least looks like a solid bottom pairing defenseman and could maintain that standard for another few years I’d still do it, as he would be an immediate upgrade on Coburn for 3LD and our PK and would give us some flexibility in terms of what to do with Girardi after next season. Alternatively he’d probably still be an upgrade on Dotchin even if his level of play has fallen somewhat. But if he looks like he’s about to take a serious turn for the worse and end up in Coburn Country then I agree we shouldn’t pursue him.

He's better than Coburn but we aren't getting him for Coburn + so he's not an option or a need if we can't get rid of Coburn.
 

CupsOverCash

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Jun 16, 2009
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To be honest, the success rate on that "all-in" list isn't great. It's also missing Caps-Shattenkirk, and Rags-Yandle, more recently. Basically, it's a crap shoot in terms of Cups netted. It might work, it might not.

We haven't run around circles enough yet, so I'll champion the minor play for a guy like Hjalmarsson yet again. I think he shores up our defense just enough. I'm only okay with McD if it involves some Yzermagic.

Also, part of me can't help but wonder what happens with the Kings in the offseason if they fall short. Yes, I'm thinking about the unthinkable. If we're gonna break the bank, why not just wait and go all-in on a single, glorious rental year of Doughty?

SY once in a while seems to work Jedi mind tricks in these trades. Hopefully he can pull one out this trade deadline. It could be the difference between a cup and another disappointing playoff loss.

Doughty would be amazing. I don’t see how any team would be able to compete with us if that happened.
 

Todd1a

Kucherov or prospect
Jun 19, 2014
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orlando, fl
chris Nichols on rangers/ lightning My major reason for writing that, the Nash and McDonagh thing, is because I think Tampa will do something A, and B their prospect and player pool is so deep that there’s probably nobody who can take as big a swing as they can if they want. St. Louis is probably close with the prospects they have, but Tampa is the deepest. And I think teams are wary of Tampa in the sense that Yzerman wouldn’t be afraid of it and B he can do it.
 

CupsOverCash

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chris Nichols on rangers/ lightning My major reason for writing that, the Nash and McDonagh thing, is because I think Tampa will do something A, and B their prospect and player pool is so deep that there’s probably nobody who can take as big a swing as they can if they want. St. Louis is probably close with the prospects they have, but Tampa is the deepest. And I think teams are wary of Tampa in the sense that Yzerman wouldn’t be afraid of it and B he can do it.

This is exactly why I have been saying that I can see him making a big move this year vs years prior. For once we have a majority core locked up and pretty soon the full core will be. That takes a lot of roster spots and positions up and leaves almost none for these kids trying to come up and get a spot. They have to either outplay them or the other guy has to leave. The thing is we have a surplus of them and we can deal some of them for a great piece now. I think SY knows he can and I think he will use it to his benefit in one way or another. He’s in a great position to pull the trigger on something he really thinks is going to help this team now.
 

Todd1a

Kucherov or prospect
Jun 19, 2014
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This is exactly why I have been saying that I can see him making a big move this year vs years prior. For once we have a majority core locked up and pretty soon the full core will be. That takes a lot of roster spots and positions up and leaves almost none for these kids trying to come up and get a spot. They have to either outplay them or the other guy has to leave. The thing is we have a surplus of them and we can deal some of them for a great piece now. I think SY knows he can and I think he will use it to his benefit in one way or another. He’s in a great position to pull the trigger on something he really thinks is going to help this team now.
Ya but Killorn, Johnson and callahan are not going to play out those contracts here in tampa they will move before those terms end
 

CupsOverCash

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Ya but Killorn, Johnson and callahan are not going to play out those contracts here in tampa they will move before those terms end

So that’s three spots. 1 top six and two bottom six players. We have those players even with a big trade. People aren’t appreciating how good our prospect pool is AND how good we are at drafting below the first round. I mean that’s huge for this year and forward. I’m not worried about our future because I trust the people here who make the decisions. If we make a big trade, SY will make moves to make up for the guys we lose. I’m not saying all those moves would be gold, just saying if there is one guy who I trust to handle it, it’s SY.
 

Todd1a

Kucherov or prospect
Jun 19, 2014
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So that’s three spots. 1 top six and two bottom six players. We have those players even with a big trade. People aren’t appreciating how good our prospect pool is AND how good we are at drafting below the first round. I mean that’s huge for this year and forward. I’m not worried about our future because I trust the people here who make the decisions. If we make a big trade, SY will make moves to make up for the guys we lose. I’m not saying all those moves would be gold, just saying if there is one guy who I trust to handle it, it’s SY.
three spots that we pretty much know for sure can they resign gourde ? that was a surprise we didnt see coming if not someone has to replace him after next year as well. plus Vladdy will need a decent raise this coming offseason like 4.0 to 4.5 per year I see coming for him for 4-7 years
 

AndreRoy

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three spots that we pretty much know for sure can they resign gourde ? that was a surprise we didnt see coming if not someone has to replace him after next year as well. plus Vladdy will need a decent raise this coming offseason like 4.0 to 4.5 per year I see coming for him for 4-7 years

It depends on what he’s asking for and how much the cap rises but I think we’ll end up trading Vladdy rather than lock him up longterm.

As far as Gourde is concerned we’re in an interesting spot with him considering this will be his only chance at serious life-changing money; if we wait until he hits free agency I can see him going to the highest bidder rather than giving us a hometown discount for that reason. So maybe we take a bit of a risk and offer him something like $3M for 4-5 years this summer. If he keeps up his current level of play that contract will be an absolute steal, and even if his scoring this season turns out to be a fluke he’ll only be a little overpaid and should still be a useful defensive/energy guy for us. And for him the prospect of sure money might override the desire to try for more in free agency and risk injury or a subpar season. Definitely a gamble but one with a lot of potential upside and if we view his contract as replacing Kunitz’s not all that much risk.
 

Bolt 45

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It’d be fun to watch but I’m still championing the idea of Alec Martinez. Three more years left on his deal, can play either side and on the PK...he’d give us a lot of flexibility and could probably be had for a reasonable price.
Haven't seen much of him this year, but I agree that he's the kind of guy that gets the job done for us. Like Hjalmarsson he has Cup experience, which is a big plus.
 

DFC

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No not all of them were TDL but they were "all in" moves that helped their team. I made a different post about our odds and depending on what stage of the playoffs there's stretches where I don't think we have a shot any better than 50/50 depending on the opponent. I agree we should be cautious but I'm not the type of person who gets sentimental about trading a developing 19 year old who doesn't kill penalties, doesn't make regular defensive zone starts, has been sheltered by Stralman all year AND is hitting the wall along with late round draft choices and a prospect who might end up getting the Richard Panik treatment. The kid has so far to go that I feel like a top 15 (possibly 10) defenseman in the game is more than a fair return.

Sergachev vs McDonagh is like having dollar versus an uncommon coin from another country that's worth less but you hope will be worth more than a dollar some day.

There's still a difference between those moves and TDL moves. TDL moves are all about short-term gain and long-term sacrifices. The Kessel trade, for instance, gave up prospects, but Kessel was signed, and the Pens got Toronto to eat enough of the contract that the deal was relatively safe for them. The only question was about how long Kessel could keep up his level of play.

I just don't think there's a whole lot of evidence to show going "all in" at the TDL actually works.

Keep in mind, I'm not trying to argue against getting McDonagh. I think we should do it if the price is right. All I'm saying is this talk about going "all in" because our time is now just isn't actually what winning teams have done at this time of year. At least not as much as seems to be believed.
 

Bolt 45

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SY once in a while seems to work Jedi mind tricks in these trades. Hopefully he can pull one out this trade deadline. It could be the difference between a cup and another disappointing playoff loss.

Doughty would be amazing. I don’t see how any team would be able to compete with us if that happened.
Doughty and Karlsson are the two guys I'd be okay with going all-in for. Whether or not we won a Cup would almost be irrelevant, because the kind of hockey we'd get to see would be incredible.

And as much as I don't necessarily buy into the idea of going after a guy to keep him from going elsewhere, Doughty's on record as having said he'd love to play in Toronto. I don't want any part of that nonsense.
 
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Sky04

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To be honest, the success rate on that "all-in" list isn't great. It's also missing Caps-Shattenkirk, and Rags-Yandle, more recently. Basically, it's a crap shoot in terms of Cups netted. It might work, it might not.

We haven't run around circles enough yet, so I'll champion the minor play for a guy like Hjalmarsson yet again. I think he shores up our defense just enough. I'm only okay with McD if it involves some Yzermagic.

Also, part of me can't help but wonder what happens with the Kings in the offseason if they fall short. Yes, I'm thinking about the unthinkable. If we're gonna break the bank, why not just wait and go all-in on a single, glorious rental year of Doughty?

How would we get Hjalrmarsson? Coyotes have said they aren't trading him what ever value he has less than McDonagh becomes roughly the same if you have to pry him out of there with a severe overpayment...
 
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