2017-18 Official Hollywood Top 35

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  1. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    THE OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35

    It is not yet time for an official ranking, but that day is coming soon. Time to start a thread just to put out the scores thus far. Funny thing, almost every game has been won by the higher seeded team from last year.

    THE SCORES:

    Aug 24 Keio University 0 Toronto 5 Japan/OUA
    Aug 26 Manitoba 6 Belfast Giants 4 CW/EIHL
    Aug 27 Manitoba 6 Belfast Giants 7 (ot) CW/EIHL
    Aug 29 Manitoba 2 Edinburgh Capitals 1 CW/EIHL
    Aug 31 Manitoba 7 Braehead Clan 1 CW/EIHL
    Sep 08 Concordia 1 U.Q.T.R. 6
    Sep 08 Lethbridge 4 Calgary 7
    Sep 08 N.A.I.T. 3 Alberta 4 (ot) ACAC/CW
    Sep 09 Calgary 1 Lethbridge 5
    Sep 09 R.M.C. 0 McGill 8
    Sep 09 U.Q.T.R. 1 Concordia 4
    Sep 10 Alberta 7 Augustana 4 ACAC/CW

    Sep 12 Brock 3 W. Ontario 7
    Sep 14 Saskatchewan 3 Regina 4
    Sep 15 Calgary 7 Regina 0
    Sep 15 Guelph 5 Brock 3
    Sep 15 Lethbridge 5 W. Ontario 3 CW/OUA
    Sep 15 Manitoba 2 Saskatchewan 5
    Sep 15 McGill 3 U.Q.T.R. 2 (so)
    Sep 15 Moncton 2 St. F.X. 5
    Sep 15 Ottawa 5 Nipissing 4
    Sep 15 Simon Fraser 3 U.B.C. 8 BCIHL/CW
    Sep 15 U.O.I.T. 2 Ryerson 6
    Sep 15 U.P.E.I. 1 New Brunswick 2
    Sep 16 Laurier 0 Windsor 2
    Sep 16 Lethbridge 2 W. Ontario 3 CW/OUA
    Sep 16 Manitoba 5 Calgary 6
    Sep 16 Ottawa 4 Laurentian 3
    Sep 16 Queen's 0 R.M.C. 4
    Sep 16 Saint Mary's 4 Dalhousie 0
    Sep 16 U.Q.T.R. 3 McGill 2


    THE TABLE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams


    [​IMG]
    This is NOT a ranking. The teams are listed alphabetically by conference/division.

    RECORDS BY CONFERENCE

    [​IMG]

    OUA INTERLOCK

    EAST 0
    WEST 0
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2017
  2. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    OHT35 - Sept 24

    THE OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 - Sept 24/17

    While still too early for a ranking, there were a load of games this past week and we are getting some hints as to what may be in store. One thing which stands out is the number of split two-game series. Here are the scores from the week that was.

    THE SCORES:

    Sep 19 Nipissing 4 Laurentian 3 (so)
    Sep 19 R.M.C. 3 Ryerson 4 (ot)
    Sep 20 Saint Mary's 4 Acadia 1
    Sep 21 Mount Royal 4 Calgary 7
    Sep 22 Carleton 1 W. Ontario 2
    Sep 22 Concordia 2 Moncton 4 OUA/AUS
    Sep 22 Dalhousie 0 New Brunswick 6
    Sep 22 Laurier 3 U.O.I.T. 4 (OT)
    Sep 22 McGill 3 York 2
    Sep 22 Queen's 2 U.B.C. 0 OUA/CW
    Sep 22 Red Deer College 1 Lethbridge 5 ACAC/CW
    Sep 22 Regina 2 Manitoba 3
    Sep 22 Saskatchewan 2 Alberta 4
    Sep 22 U.P.E.I. 4 Acadia 7
    Sep 22 U.Q.T.R. 2 St. F.X. 1 OUA/AUS
    Sep 22 Windsor 6 Waterloo 4
    Sep 23 Calgary 2 Alberta 3 (OT)
    Sep 23 Concordia 5 Moncton 3 OUA/AUS
    Sep 23 Laurentian at Nipissing MISSING
    Sep 23 McGill 3 Ryerson 4
    Sep 23 Queen's 1 U.B.C. 2 OUA/CW
    Sep 23 Red Deer College 2 Lethbridge 3 ACAC/CW
    Sep 23 Regina 4 Manitoba 2
    Sep 23 Saint Mary's 7 U.P.E.I. 2
    Sep 23 Saskatchewan 2 Mount Royal 3
    Sep 23 Toronto 1 York 5
    Sep 23 U.Q.T.R. 1 St. F.X. 6 OUA/AUS
    Sep 23 Waterloo 4 Carleton 0
    Sep 23 Windsor 3 W. Ontario 5


    THE TABLE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams


    [​IMG]
    Once again, this is NOT a ranking. The teams are listed alphabetically by conference/division. One unique thing is that there have been eight 2-game series played between CIS teams so far and all series have been split. The match-ups have been:

    Calgary - Lethbridge
    Lethbridge - W. Ontario
    Regina - Manitoba
    Queen's - U.B.C.
    Concordia - U.Q.T.R.
    Concordia - Moncton
    U.Q.T.R. - McGill
    U.Q.T.R. - St. F.X.

    RECORDS BY CONFERENCE

    [​IMG]

    OUA INTERLOCK

    EAST 0
    WEST 0
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2017
  3. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    THE OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 – Oct 2/17

    The pre-season is over in the CW and AUS. The OUA is messing things up with a staggered start. Some teams start the regular season this coming weekend, and others still have exhibitions the next two weeks. Some results missing from last week have been added here.

    THE SCORES:

    Sep 22 Belleville 3 Ottawa 1
    Sep 23 Laurentian 3 Nipissing 1
    Sep 26 Dalhousie 0 Acadia 5
    Sep 26 Ryerson 0 York 4
    Sep 27 Calgary 4 Mount Royal 1
    Sep 28 U.P.E.I. 8 Moncton 5
    Sep 29 Calgary 3 SAIT 2
    Sep 29 Guelph 2 Toronto 6
    Sep 29 U.O.I.T. 0 Lakehead 2
    Sep 30 Acadia 2 Mass-Lowell 4
    Sep 30 Alberta 4 Minnesota-Duluth 3
    Sep 30 Carleton 5 Holy Cross 4 (ot)
    Sep 30 R.M.C. 2 Concordia 7
    Sep 30 Laurier 2 Western Michigan 8
    Sep 30 Lethbridge 1 Colorado College 4
    Sep 30 Manitoba 2 North Dakota 6
    Sep 30 McGill 3 St. Lawrence 2
    Sep 30 New Brunswick 2 Boston College 4
    Sep 30 Ottawa 1 Robert Morris 5
    Sep 30 Queen's 0 Mass-Amherst 1
    Sep 30 Regina 0 St. Cloud State 8
    Sep 30 Ryerson 7 Ohio State 4
    Sep 30 St. F.X. 1 Connecticut 2
    Sep 30 St. Mary's 2 Rennselaer 1
    Sep 30 Toronto 4 Nipissing 1
    Sep 30 Trinity Western 1 U.B.C. 3
    Sep 30 U.O.I.T. 3 Lakehead 1
    Sep 30 U.P.E.I. 1 Northeastern 9
    Sep 30 U.Q.T.R. 3 Clarkson 3 (ot tie)
    Sep 30 W. Ontario 1 Michigan 10
    Oct 01 Acadia 1 Maine 3
    Oct 01 Alberta 2 Minnesota 6
    Oct 01 Carleton 5 Sacred Heart 2
    Oct 01 Guelph 2 Windsor 1
    Oct 01 Laurentian 2 Lake Superior State 3
    Oct 01 Laurier 1 Bowling Green 3
    Oct 01 Lethbridge 1 Denver 3
    Oct 01 Ottawa 4 Penn State 3 (ot)
    Oct 01 Regina 0 Minnesota State 8
    Oct 01 St. F.X. 3 New Hampshire 3 (ot tie)
    Oct 01 St. Mary's 2 Quinnipiac 3
    Oct 01 U.P.E.I. 5 Boston Univ. 5 (ot tie)
    Oct 01 Waterloo 1 Vermont 6
    Oct 02 Lethbridge 0 Air Force 3

    THE TABLE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams


    [​IMG]
    The OUA has done very well against the NCAA. Otherwise, very few teams stood out with either an extremely good or extremely bad pre-season. The teams are not ranked. The teams are sorted by conference/division and listed by record.

    RECORDS BY CONFERENCE

    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2017
  4. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    THE OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 – Oct 8/17

    The regular season is fully underway in the CW and AUS, and the OUA is still in a staggered start. So the first tentative steps towards a ranking can now be attempted. Expect many changes in the coming weeks.

    THE SCORES:

    Oct 04 Moncton 2 New Brunswick 6
    Oct 05 McGill 7 R.M.C. 1
    Oct 05 Laurier 5 Waterloo 2 (Exh)
    Oct 05 York 5 U.O.I.T. 1 (Exh)
    Oct 06 Lethbridge 1 Calgary 4
    Oct 06 Mount Royal 0 Alberta 7
    Oct 06 Saskatchewan 8 Regina 2
    Oct 06 Dalhousie 1 Saint Mary's 4
    Oct 06 New Brunswick 5 U.P.E.I. 3
    Oct 06 St. F.X. 5 Acadia 4 (so)
    Oct 06 Nipissing 2 Nebraska-Omaha 5 (NCAA)
    Oct 06 Ryerson 3 Canisius College 2 (NCAA)
    Oct 06 Concordia 4 Lakehead 3 (Exh)
    Oct 06 Queen's 3 Ottawa 0 (Exh)
    Oct 07 Alberta 5 Mount Royal 1
    Oct 07 Calgary 1 Lethbridge 2 (ot)
    Oct 07 Regina 0 Saskatchewan 6
    Oct 07 U.B.C. 6 Manitoba 4
    Oct 07 Acadia 5 Dalhousie 3
    Oct 07 Saint Mary's 1 St. F.X. 3
    Oct 07 U.P.E.I. 7 Moncton 6 (ot)
    Oct 07 U.Q.T.R. 0 McGill 3
    Oct 07 Brock 1 R.I.T. 3 (NCAA)
    Oct 07 Concordia 2 Lakehead 3 (ot) (Exh)
    Oct 07 Laurier 1 Brampton Beast 2 (ot) (ECHL)
    Oct 07 Ryerson 7 Mercyhurst 6 (ot) (NCAA)
    Oct 07 Toronto 0 Michigan State 3 (NCAA)
    Oct 07 Windsor 2 Harvard 7 (NCAA)
    Oct 08 U.B.C. 2 Manitoba 3
    Oct 08 Windsor 1 Dartmouth 2 (NCAA)

    THE TABLE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams


    [​IMG]
    Since there have been only 2 games in the OUA, this is very much a preliminary ranking. Hence, no numbers have been assigned. Right now the focus should be on the letter grade for each team.

    RECORDS BY CONFERENCE

    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2017
  5. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    THE OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 #2
    to Oct 15/17​

    The OUA's staggered start is now done. All teams have now started their regular seasons, but some NCAA games remained. So this is the first real ranking.

    THE SCORES:

    Oct 11 Acadia 4 St. F.X. 5
    Oct 11 New Brunswick 2 Moncton 0
    Oct 11 Brock 2 Guelph 3
    Oct 11 W. Ontario 3 Waterloo 9
    Oct 12 Ottawa 5 Carleton 6 (ot)
    Oct 12 Ryerson 5 Guelph 4 (ot)
    Oct 13 Calgary 6 U.B.C. 1
    Oct 13 Lethbridge 3 Saskatchewan 4 (ot)
    Oct 13 Manitoba 2 Alberta 5
    Oct 13 Regina 7 Mount Royal 6 (so)
    Oct 13 Dalhousie 2 Acadia 3 (so)
    Oct 13 Moncton 2 U.P.E.I. 8
    Oct 13 St. F.X. 4 Saint Mary's 3 (ot)
    Oct 13 Concordia 3 McGill 2
    Oct 13 Lakehead 3 Laurier 8
    Oct 13 Laurentian 2 Queen's 5
    Oct 13 Nipissing 3 U.Q.T.R. 4 (ot)
    Oct 13 R.M.C. 4 U.O.I.T. 5
    Oct 13 Toronto 3 Waterloo 1
    Oct 13 Windsor 2 York 3

    Oct 13 W. Ontario 4 Yale 6 NCAA-x
    Oct 14 Calgary 7 U.B.C. 0
    Oct 14 Lethbridge 2 Saskatchewan 5
    Oct 14 Manitoba 4 Alberta 1
    Oct 14 Regina 4 Mount Royal 5 (so)
    Oct 14 Saint Mary's 4 Dalhousie 2
    Oct 14 U.P.E.I. 2 New Brunswick 6
    Oct 14 Concordia 4 Ottawa 5 (ot)
    Oct 14 Lakehead 1 Laurier 2 (so)
    Oct 14 Laurentian 2 R.M.C. 1
    Oct 14 McGill 2 Carleton 1 (ot)
    Oct 14 Nipissing 1 U.Q.T.R. 5
    Oct 14 U.O.I.T. 0 Queen's 4
    Oct 14 York 4 Brock 3 (so)

    Oct 14 Guelph 1 Cornell 7 NCAA-x
    Oct 14 W. Ontario 4 Princeton 6 NCAA-x

    Oct 15 Windsor 3 Ryerson 4 (ot)
    Oct 15 Ottawa 2 Cornell 2 (ot tie) NCAA-x


    THE TABLE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams


    [​IMG]
    We might be one week away from a growth in the A level. If that happens, there could be a shuffling throughout. Remember – It's still early. The pre-season games don't have too much bearing already, which is unusual. I expect lots of shifting from C- to C, to C+.

    RECORDS BY CONFERENCE

    [​IMG]

    * indicates total includes tie games

    OUA INTERLOCK

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    THE OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 #3
    to Oct 22/17

    This was the first week without non-conference games. Last year's finalists both suffered their first losses, UNB to Acadia and Sask to Manitoba.

    THE SCORES:

    Oct 18 Moncton 3 Dalhousie 4 (so)
    Oct 20 Alberta 7 Calgary 5
    Oct 20 Mount Royal 6 Lethbridge 2
    Oct 20 Regina 2 U.B.C. 4
    Oct 20 Saskatchewan 3 Manitoba 4 (ot)
    Oct 20 Dalhousie 1 St. F.X. 4
    Oct 20 U.P.E.I. 0 Saint Mary's 6
    Oct 20 New Brunswick 2 Acadia 3 (ot)
    Oct 20 Brock 3 Concordia 5
    Oct 20 Carleton 4 W. Ontario 3
    Oct 20 Guelph 4 McGill 7
    Oct 20 Laurier 1 Nipissing 2
    Oct 20 Ottawa 3 Windsor 2
    Oct 20 Queen's 1 Toronto 2 (ot)
    Oct 20 R.M.C. 0 Ryerson 7
    Oct 20 U.O.I.T. 1 York 3
    Oct 20 U.Q.T.R. 3 Lakehead 1
    Oct 20 Waterloo 6 Laurentian 3
    Oct 21 Calgary 2 Alberta 3 (ot)
    Oct 21 Lethbridge 1 Mount Royal 4
    Oct 21 Regina 2 U.B.C. 3
    Oct 21 Saskatchewan 6 Manitoba 0
    Oct 21 New Brunswick 4 Saint Mary's 2
    Oct 21 St. F.X. 4 Moncton 2
    Oct 21 U.P.E.I. 2 Acadia 8
    Oct 21 Brock 2 McGill 3
    Oct 21 Carleton 1 Windsor 2
    Oct 21 Guelph 2 Concordia 4
    Oct 21 Laurier 5 Laurentian 3
    Oct 21 Ottawa 3 W. Ontario 7
    Oct 21 Queen's 4 Ryerson 3
    Oct 21 R.M.C. 1 York 4
    Oct 21 U.O.I.T. 3 Toronto 2
    Oct 21 U.Q.T.R. 4 Lakehead 1
    Oct 21 Waterloo 4 Nipissing 2


    THE TABLE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams


    [​IMG]
    So St. FX gets a promotion. The teams most likely to get a boost next time are C teams Waterloo and Laurier.

    RECORDS BY CONFERENCE

    [​IMG]
     
  7. cishockeyfan

    cishockeyfan Registered User

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    Too much credit being giving to the Canada West Conference, way too much

    Can't argue with Alberta at #1 at all now, but an argument can be made prior to UNB's shootout loss to Acadia as to why they were ranked behind Alberta than.

    after this you have Saskatchewan and Calgary Ranked as the 2 top "B+" teams, than of course the highest ranked team with a losing record is to no surprise "Manitoba" who are just behind the top ranked team with a .500 record Mount Royal. Manitoba is followed directly by UBC (who has a better record than Manitoba) and Lethbridge who has a terrible overall record somehow is the 15th Best team in the Country? ahead of the TOP team in the OUA so far York at # 16 unbeaten at 5-0-0 and a 8-1-0 overall record. Last but not least we have Regina the worst team in the Canada West and one of the worst in the Country ranked at #27 ahead of Multiple teams in the OUA and AUS.

    Im not trying to be an @SS as I appreciate the effort you put into these rankings, but its clearly steered in the Canada West and Manitoba's favor. You cant really give argument for records vs A, B+, B, C+ competition, because with almost every CW team being ranked too high, their being credited with wins versus better competition for that very reason.

    The AUS and CW have shown to be 2 very similar strength conferences from top to bottom over the years. And the OUA has closed the gap a lot
     
  8. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    The skew of the CW compared to the AUS is like this:
    CW: A1 B2 C+4 C1
    AUS: A2 B2 C+1 C2

    That skew would imply that the AUS is the strongest.

    As for Lethbridge, they started with 3 points in 4 games against Calgary and Sask. Since then they are 0-3 against MRU and UBC. After tonight they could be sliding. If they were to fall to C that would affect everything. The more likely change is Waterloo and/or Laurier moving from C to C+. We'll see what happens tonight.
     
  9. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    THE OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 #4
    to Oct 29/17​

    York and Laurier moved up this week, and Lethbridge went down. Combine this with the usual wins and losses, and we have a lot of shuffling. This was also a very balanced week where every team in Canada played two games exactly.

    THE SCORES:

    Oct 25 Dalhousie 4 Moncton 1
    Oct 25 Laurier 3 Ryerson 4 (so)
    Oct 26 W. Ontario 4 Guelph 5
    Oct 27 Alberta 4 Regina 3
    Oct 27 Mount Royal 1 Manitoba 4
    Oct 27 Saskatchewan 2 Calgary 1 (so)
    Oct 27 U.B.C. 5 Lethbridge 0
    Oct 27 Acadia 2 New Brunswick 7
    Oct 27 Moncton 2 St. F.X. 4
    Oct 27 Saint Mary's 4 U.P.E.I. 3 (ot)
    Oct 27 Carleton 6 Concordia 3
    Oct 27 Lakehead 5 Waterloo 1
    Oct 27 McGill 3 Queen's 2 (ot)
    Oct 27 Nipissing 2 U.O.I.T. 1 (ot)
    Oct 27 Ottawa 4 R.M.C. 0
    Oct 27 U.Q.T.R. 7 Laurentian 3
    Oct 27 Windsor 0 Brock 4
    Oct 27 York 4 Toronto 1
    Oct 28 Alberta 4 Regina 1
    Oct 28 Mount Royal 2 Manitoba 3
    Oct 28 Saskatchewan 2 Calgary 4
    Oct 28 U.B.C. 6 Lethbridge 4
    Oct 28 Acadia 7 U.P.E.I. 5
    Oct 28 St. F.X. 5 Dalhousie 1
    Oct 28 Saint Mary's 1 New Brunswick 5
    Oct 28 Concordia 4 Queen's 3 (ot)
    Oct 28 Lakehead 3 Waterloo 2 (so)
    Oct 28 Laurier 3 Toronto 1
    Oct 28 McGill 3 Ottawa 6
    Oct 28 Nipissing 5 R.M.C. 4 (ot)
    Oct 28 Ryerson 1 York 4
    Oct 28 U.O.I.T. 1 Carleton 3
    Oct 28 U.Q.T.R. 2 Laurentian 0
    Oct 28 W. Ontario 2 Brock 5
    Oct 28 Windsor 5 Guelph 3

    THE TABLE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams


    [​IMG]
    McGill, Ryerson, Toronto, and Guelph are all on a relegation alert. They hang on where they are (B and C+), but just barely.

    The AUS seems to be dividing into a top tier and a bottom tier. The "norm" has been for UNB to dominate but face stiff opposition (and often playoff defeat) at the hands of the next three national-level contenders (Acadia, St. FX, and St. Mary's). In turn, Moncton and UPEI were often capable of moving into the sphere of contenders themselves. Dalhousie, and formerly the Pids, would perhaps have made the playoffs elsewhere. But now it seems that an OUA-East type of gap is coming into play.

    The CW has turned back the clock. It looks like the old "Big Four" is coming back into play. Though capable of upsets and tough battles, UBC and MRU seem to be OK but not able to sustain themselves in the upper echelons. And Lethbridge and Regina right now would dream of being where UBC and MRU presently are.

    In the OUA, East and West are quite different every year. The OUA West has one nice feature: competitiveness. York is tough to rank because of their predominantly C-level list of opponents. Their win over Ryerson gives a basis to include them at B-level. It is not hard to imagine the bottom 8 teams in the division moving between C and C+ all year.

    In the OUA East, there is normally a wide gap between national contenders at the top and teams that couldn't come close to the playoffs elsewhere at the bottom. Lately the conference depth has improved, such that the East now usually leads the West in interlocking play. (They lead 11-9 so far this year.) The hard thing this year is ranking UQTR. They had a .500 preseason and in the regular season they have a 6-0-0 record against C teams but lost their only game outside the lowest category. I believe they are likely a B-level team but cannot put them there based on their schedule.

    My special charts for non-conference interlocking play and OUA East v West can be omitted for now, because no new games have been played. Instead, I bring another one to show the rankings skew for each conference.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    THE OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 #5
    to Nov 6/17

    This was a conference bye in the CW. Very little movement between categories this week, just Acadia going up and Toronto going down. Other than Acadia, other teams with notable positive weeks were Guelph, Lakehead, Western Ontario, and U.N.B. On the down side there was Brock, York, and Ottawa. Here's what happened.

    THE SCORES:

    Nov 01 Dalhousie 0 Acadia 5
    Nov 01 Saint Mary's 5 St. F.X. 4 (so)
    Nov 01 U.P.E.I. 4 Moncton 6
    Nov 02 Toronto 1 Guelph 4
    Nov 02 York 2 Laurier 6
    Nov 03 Moncton 1 New Brunswick 6
    Nov 03 St. F.X. 5 Acadia 6 (ot)
    Nov 03 Brock 2 Lakehead 3 (ot)
    Nov 03 Laurentian 4 Ottawa 3
    Nov 03 Nipissing 1 Carleton 4
    Nov 03 Queen's 3 U.Q.T.R. 6
    Nov 03 R.M.C. 0 McGill 6
    Nov 03 Ryerson 3 Waterloo 2 (ot)
    Nov 03 U.O.I.T. 2 Concordia 6
    Nov 03 W. Ontario 4 Windsor 2
    Nov 04 New Brunswick 3 U.P.E.I. 2
    Nov 04 Brock 0 Lakehead 3
    Nov 04 Laurentian 0 Carleton 6
    Nov 04 Laurier 2 W. Ontario 3
    Nov 04 Nipissing 3 Ottawa 2
    Nov 04 Queen's 2 U.Q.T.R. 1 (ot)
    Nov 04 R.M.C. 3 Concordia 5
    Nov 04 Toronto 0 Windsor 2
    Nov 04 U.O.I.T. 2 McGill 4
    Nov 04 Waterloo 0 York 2
    Nov 05 Guelph 4 York 1
    Nov 06 Saint Mary's 4 Dalhousie 1

    THE TABLE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams


    [​IMG]
    I included the Monday night game because it is the AUS's 7th game which gave all the teams a 2nd game of the extended weekend.

    McGill, Ryerson, and Guelph answered their relegation alerts with recovery wins. Toronto did not, and they slide from C+ to C.

    At the other end, Acadia is .500 against the A level and unbeaten against the rest, so up they go. St. F.X. always confounds the rankings it seems. They get a promotion to A level and they get 2 losses, albeit in extra time.

    The top three teams from the OUA are barely clinging to the B level. McGill is 4-2-0 against C+ teams, and York and Ryerson are worse. They can all stick in B level for now. The teams at the top of C+ are tightly bunched, so one cannot say that some stand out as inevitable promotion candidates.

    Ottawa is only 2-3-0 against C level teams now. But they are 2-0-1 against B and C+ teams. So does this make them a C or a C+ team? Very borderline, hence the alert. They are just a tick ahead of the ascendant northern teams from Nipissing and Lakehead.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    THE OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 #6
    to Nov 12/17
    It gets late early in Usports/CIS hockey. Remembrance Day is considered early in the hockey season. But in two more weeks we will hit the mid-point of the schedule. This was an extremely “by-the-book” week. MRU split with Calgary, which is not a huge surprise, and RMC swept UQTR, which is amazing. While UQTR was a Top Ten team in offical rankings, they were only 14th in the OHT35 due to their weak schedule to date.

    This week I had completed a ranking and then on further review saw the need for a major shift. First, the A level had to be expanded, because two teams of Huskies were in a dead heat with Acadia. This would have left the B level fairly sparse. However, Carleton, Concordia, and Manitoba had comparable records to the remaining B teams.

    I also expanded the C- level, which does not affect the rankings. (The “-” teams remain in the same level on the tables.)

    THE SCORES:

    Nov 06 Saint Mary's 4 Dalhousie 1 (this was included last week)
    Nov 08 Saint Mary's 4 Acadia 3
    Nov 08 Ryerson 3 Brock 4
    Nov 08 Toronto 4 W. Ontario 1
    Nov 10 Lethbridge 2 Alberta 7
    Nov 10 Manitoba 6 Regina 1
    Nov 10 Mount Royal 3 Calgary 2
    Nov 10 U.B.C. 3 Saskatchewan 4 (ot)
    Nov 10 Dalhousie 4 U.P.E.I. 5
    Nov 10 Moncton 1 Acadia 6
    Nov 10 St. F.X. 3 New Brunswick 5
    Nov 10 Brock 4 Laurier 5
    Nov 10 Carleton 4 Ottawa 2
    Nov 10 Concordia 4 Nipissing 1
    Nov 10 Lakehead 1 Guelph 3
    Nov 10 McGill 8 Laurentian 3
    Nov 10 Queen's 2 U.O.I.T. 4
    Nov 10 Ryerson 5 Toronto 2
    Nov 10 U.Q.T.R. 1 R.M.C. 2
    Nov 10 Windsor 1 Waterloo 2
    Nov 10 York 5 W. Ontario 4
    Nov 11 Calgary 5 Mount Royal 1
    Nov 11 Lethbridge 1 Alberta 6
    Nov 11 Manitoba 6 Regina 5 (2ot)
    Nov 11 U.B.C. 2 Saskatchewan 5
    Nov 11 Dalhousie 1 New Brunswick 3
    Nov 11 Moncton 1 Saint Mary's 7
    Nov 11 St. F.X. 4 U.P.E.I. 2
    Nov 11 Carleton 4 Queen's 1
    Nov 11 Concordia 6 Laurentian 1
    Nov 11 Lakehead 2 York 4
    Nov 11 McGill 4 Nipissing 1
    Nov 11 Ottawa 4 U.O.I.T. 5
    Nov 11 U.Q.T.R. 1 R.M.C. 4
    Nov 11 Waterloo 3 Guelph 6
    Nov 11 W. Ontario 2 Toronto 4
    Nov 11 Windsor 1 Laurier 2
    Nov 12 Lakehead 2 Ryerson 4

    THE TABLE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams


    [​IMG]

    Starting at the top, there is no doubt about Alberta and UNB taking the top two spots, although one could argue which is #1 and which is #2. SFX is clearly the bronze team.

    The expanded A level includes the 3 A- teams. Acadia was newly promoted a week ago, and both teams of Huskies have approximately equivalent records to them.

    Concordia, Carleton, and Manitoba have now jumped to the B level. Ryerson is clinging on, but the other teams are closely ranked.

    The strange thing is the AUS has separated into extremes. They have 4 teams at A level, one at C+ and two at C. Conversely, the CW has 2 teams at each level. I decided to once again include the skew table.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2017
  12. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    THE OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 #7
    to Nov 19/17​

    For the first time in a long time, no teams switched categories. Lethbridge and Regina lose their “-” but that does not affect their status for rankings purposes. The AUS teams have reached their mid-point, after next week the CW teams will have reached their midpoint, and the OUA teams will reach their midpoint sometime between now and then. Here's the week that was.

    THE SCORES:

    Nov 15 Acadia 2 Saint Mary's 3
    Nov 15 Waterloo 4 Ryerson 6
    Nov 17 Alberta 6 Saskatchewan 1
    Nov 17 Manitoba 3 Lethbridge 4 (ot)
    Nov 17 Mount Royal 4 U.B.C. 1
    Nov 17 Regina 3 Calgary 2
    Nov 17 Acadia 9 Moncton 1
    Nov 17 New Brunswick 2 St. F.X. 3 (ot)
    Nov 17 U.P.E.I. 4 Dalhousie 2
    Nov 17 Concordia 1 McGill 2
    Nov 17 Guelph 6 W. Ontario 4
    Nov 17 Laurier 2 Brock 3 (ot)
    Nov 17 Ottawa 4 Carleton 3
    Nov 17 Queen's 8 Laurentian 2
    Nov 17 R.M.C. 2 U.Q.T.R. 1 (so)
    Nov 17 Ryerson 2 Windsor 7
    Nov 17 Toronto 2 Lakehead 3 (ot)
    Nov 17 U.O.I.T. 4 Nipissing 3 (so)
    Nov 17 York 4 Waterloo 6
    Nov 18 Alberta 0 Saskatchewan 4
    Nov 18 Manitoba 3 Lethbridge 4 (ot)
    Nov 18 Mount Royal 3 U.B.C. 1
    Nov 18 Regina 2 Calgary 3
    Nov 18 New Brunswick 4 Dalhousie 3
    Nov 18 Saint Mary's 7 Moncton 2
    Nov 18 U.P.E.I. 1 St. F.X. 6
    Nov 18 Carleton 2 U.Q.T.R. 4
    Nov 18 Guelph 4 Brock 2
    Nov 18 McGill 3 Concordia 2 (ot)
    Nov 18 Queen's 4 Nipissing 3 (ot)
    Nov 18 R.M.C. 1 Ottawa 2 (ot)
    Nov 18 Toronto 1 Lakehead 3
    Nov 18 U.O.I.T. 5 Laurentian 3
    Nov 18 W. Ontario 2 Laurier 3
    Nov 18 York 3 Windsor 5


    THE TABLE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams


    [​IMG]

    This was a tough week for the B level. McGill swept Concordia (4-1 on points), Calgary split with Regina (2-2 against a C team), Manitoba had two OTLs against Lethbridge (a C team), Carleton went 0-2-0 aginst C+ teams, York went 0-2-0 against C teams, and Ryerson went 1-1-0 against C teams. So Manitoba had a bad weekend and moved up. Very peculiar, and goes to prove that adage that “it's all relative”.

    For now, all teams stand pat within their level. That may change. There are a lot of C+ teams just a shade behind the B teams.

    The OUA West is hard to figure. How is it that Laurier and Guelph have yet to play? And how do you explain Windsor's record? (3-1-1 against B teams and 1-4-0 against C teams.) Are York and Ryerson really B level teams? They are staying put for now but they really are now no better than Guelph and Laurier.

    Due to the blurring between B and C+, I have not really distunguished between results against those teams this week. To see how close the C+ teams are, see that MRU and UBC have played almost identical schedules and are 1 game apart in the standings, yet they are 14th and 20th.

    @USPORTS_Hockey
    @USPORTSca
    @CanadaWest
    @umbisons
     
  13. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    THE OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 #8
    to Nov 26/17​

    This was a big shake-up. Last week, for rankings purposes, I lumped B and C+ together but kept all teams where they were. This time I did the same thing but allowed teams to shift. And there were many shifts. Let's look.

    THE SCORES:

    Nov 21 Laurentian 2 Nipissing 6
    Nov 22 Moncton 8 U.P.E.I. 5
    Nov 22 St. F.X. 4 Saint Mary's 2
    Nov 24 Calgary 2 Manitoba 3
    Nov 24 Lethbridge 6 Regina 2
    Nov 24 Saskatchewan 3 Mount Royal 2
    Nov 24 U.B.C. 0 Alberta 4
    Nov 24 Acadia 1 St. F.X. 2
    Nov 24 Dalhousie 1 Saint Mary's 3
    Nov 24 U.P.E.I. 1 New Brunswick 8
    Nov 24 Concordia 3 Laurier 1
    Nov 24 Lakehead 1 U.O.I.T. 3
    Nov 24 Laurentian 5 Guelph 9
    Nov 24 McGill 6 Waterloo 3
    Nov 24 Nipissing 1 Brock 2
    Nov 24 Ryerson 3 Ottawa 4 (so)
    Nov 24 Toronto 1 U.Q.T.R. 8
    Nov 24 W. Ontario 4 R.M.C. 5 (ot)
    Nov 24 Windsor 2 Queen's 4
    Nov 24 York 3 Carleton 2 (so)
    Nov 25 Calgary 4 Manitoba 0
    Nov 25 Lethbridge 2 Regina 5
    Nov 25 Saskatchewan 4 Mount Royal 1
    Nov 25 U.B.C. 1 Alberta 5
    Nov 25 Acadia 3 Dalhousie 1
    Nov 25 New Brunswick 5 Moncton 3
    Nov 25 Concordia 6 Waterloo 1
    Nov 25 Lakehead 1 U.O.I.T. 3
    Nov 25 Laurentian 1 Brock 4
    Nov 25 McGill 2 Laurier 5
    Nov 25 Nipissing 4 Guelph 8
    Nov 25 Ryerson 5 Carleton 3
    Nov 25 Toronto 2 U.Q.T.R. 5
    Nov 25 W. Ontario 4 Queen's 1
    Nov 25 Windsor 3 R.M.C. 4 (so)
    Nov 25 York 3 Ottawa 4 (so)

    THE TABLE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams


    [​IMG]

    Since this was the second weekend of OUA interlocking games, I have updated their table.

    [​IMG]

    And since many teams shifted about, here is the conference comparative rankings skew:

    [​IMG]

    Starting at the A level, Acadia is barely hanging on. It is rather extreme in the AUS to have 4 of 7 teams at the A level. We'll see.

    The big transition this week was in B and C+. At this stage most every team has enough games at each level so that we can meaningfully compare them based on winning percentages against category. For this week, B and C+ were lumped together. Next week I should be able to “re-split” the levels. In any event, UQTR, MRU, and Laurier deserved a boost, and Ryerson went the other way. The question was where to put Guelph and York. Guelph was ahead of York, but were in C+ whilst York was in B. I chose to move them to B, for now. After one more week that may change.

    Also, UOIT and Ottawa won promotion from C to C+. Ottawa was in C+ earlier. UOIT is on a 6-game winning streak, and Ottawa on a 4-gamer.

    One could argue that the OUA West should not have 6 games in the C level. However, look what those 6 teams have done against B and C+ teams:
    Brock 2-5-1
    Lakehead 0-8-1
    Waterloo 1-5-1
    Windsor 4-4-1 (but are 1-3-1 against C level)
    Toronto 1-7-0
    W. Ontario 2-5-0

    None of those look ready to move to C+ in the near future.

    @USPORTS_Hockey
    @USPORTSca
    @CanadaWest
    @umbisons
     
  14. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    THE OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 #9​

    to Dec 3/17​

    This week leads to the exam and Christmas breaks. I have reviewed all the standings and scores and found that a lot of games first reported as decided in regulation time actually went into overtime. Those results had only a minor impact on the rankings.

    THE SCORES:

    Nov 29 St. F.X. 2 Dalhousie 0
    Nov 29 Queen's 5 R.M.C. 4 (ot)
    Nov 30 Ryerson 5 W. Ontario 2
    Nov 30 Waterloo 0 Laurier 9
    Dec 01 Alberta 3 Mount Royal 1
    Dec 01 Calgary 1 Lethbridge 4
    Dec 01 Manitoba 7 U.B.C. 3
    Dec 01 Regina 2 Saskatchewan 3
    Dec 01 Dalhousie 1 Moncton 6
    Dec 01 New Brunswick 4 Saint Mary's 5 (so)
    Dec 01 U.P.E.I. 3 Acadia 6
    Dec 01 Carleton 7 Ottawa 2
    Dec 01 Guelph 6 Toronto 4
    Dec 01 Laurentian 3 McGill 6
    Dec 01 Laurier 1 York 4
    Dec 01 Nipissing 4 Concordia 6
    Dec 01 U.Q.T.R. 3 U.O.I.T. 4 (ot)
    Dec 01 Waterloo 4 Brock 5 (ot)
    Dec 01 Windsor 3 W. Ontario 7
    Dec 02 Lethbridge 4 Calgary 3 (ot)
    Dec 02 Manitoba 6 U.B.C. 3
    Dec 02 Mount Royal 2 Alberta 4
    Dec 02 Saskatchewan 6 Regina 5
    Dec 02 New Brunswick 3 Acadia 2 (ot)
    Dec 02 St. F.X. 3 Moncton 2
    Dec 02 U.P.E.I. 4 Saint Mary's 5
    Dec 02 Carleton 3 R.M.C. 0
    Dec 02 Guelph 1 Windsor 4
    Dec 02 Laurentian 4 Concordia 9
    Dec 02 Nipissing 3 McGill 4
    Dec 02 Ottawa 2 Queen's 3 (ot)
    Dec 02 Toronto 2 Brock 4
    Dec 02 U.Q.T.R. 2 U.O.I.T. 3
    Dec 02 York 2 Ryerson 5

    THE TABLE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams


    [​IMG]

    Acadia was teetering and have now tipped over into the B level, whilst Lethbridge's two wins over Calgary and elevation into the playoff picture warrants a boost for them. Nobody else shifted a level.

    There are two groups of teams (in blue) which are now teetering between levels. The bottom of the B level (from #13-#16), namely MRU, Laurier, Guelph, and UQTR, could be characterized as C+ level teams. And at the bottom of C+ and top of C (from #22-#25), we have four teams who could interchange in the near future, namely UBC, PEI, Windsor, and Nipissing.

    And since many teams shifted about, here is the conference comparative rankings skew:

    [​IMG]

    The OUA West should probably have a better curve. They have 6 of 10 teams at the C level. Windsor's record makes no sense A decent record against the C level would have them well into C+ level, at least. Brock has had a funny schedule, with just one game against a C+ team.

    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!



    @USPORTS_Hockey
    @USPORTSca
    @CanadaWest
    @umbisons
     
  15. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    Average of Averages - Background Information for OHT35

    This table shows the “average of averages”. Each team's points percentage against each category is shown. Some teams have had no games against a given category. To make the overall number more useful in such situations, those teams were deemed to have the average percentage of the teams in their category. For example, Acadia was deemed to be 50% against the B level. Ottawa was deemed to be 12% against the A level.

    Unlike the main table, the 4 teams clinging to the B level have been re-labelled as B- on this table.

    This method gets most teams to their proper ultimate ranking. There are a few exceptions, which arises due to distortions from teams which have skewed results from a small sample size within some categories. Those are:

    1. Lethbridge is ahead of UBC in the conference ranking, but due to some small sample sizes are behind in the average of averages.

    2. Lakehead is ahead of RMC and UWO for the same reason.

    3. The B- category, where it is hard to have a high confidence level that those teams would win 25% of their points against A level.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  16. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    Mid-Term Report: CW


    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    In this post-Festivus period, it seems like a good time to do a conference-by-division break-down. And I start in the Canada West. First, for ranking purposes I ignore boardroom decisions. This is normally a football thing, but I ignore the changes of Calgary's first 6 games. They were 3-1-2 in those games. Period. In any event, here are the adjusted standings:

    [​IMG]

    For each division, I will show their conference chart, and the average-of-averages calculation as well. Alberta has one game added from the end of the 1st semester, a win in the "other" category against NAIT.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Going bottom to top ...

    Regina is definitely at the bottom of the conference, but considering they get no games against other C teams, are doing fairly well. They are on par with 25% against C+ teams, and a remarkable 50% against B teams. IMO they will claim some wins in the 2nd semester and could be spoilers.

    UBC is 100% against C+ and C teams. But that's over just 4 games. They would have to hold that while making significant strides against the A and B teams to move up. They are the major beneficiaries of a 4-leaf clover. They were whacked twice by Calgary, and now get 4 free points from those poor efforts. They have a decent, but small, team.

    Lethbridge has one demerit on their record, that being the 0-fer against the other C+ team, namely UBC. If that were a split they'd be a B team right now. They are one of the three teams in the country whose conference ranking lifts them above their average of averages ranking. After being just edged from the playoffs at the last second by UBC the last two years, they are set up for another battle to the wire.

    MRU has a deceptive record. They are now done with Alberta. That strength-of-schedule difference allows them to be considered a B team for now, even though at B-. One could see them rising, or falling, in the rankings.

    Calgary is peculiar, being .500 against every level except C+. And there they are 3-1-2, which is a sort-of .500 as well. Their results are unaffected by the calibre of their opponent. Despite their 8 lost points, I would not count them out of the playoffs. 4th place is still quite possible.

    Manitoba's only sub-par weekend was the 0-0-2 one against Lethbridge. Calgary's faux pas means that moving up or down from the #3 slot would be unlikely. Being #3 in the CW would have to be considered a success.

    Sask would normally be a #1 team with their record. Their only black marks are regulation losses to Alberta and Calgary and an OTL to Manitoba. But they share a division with Alberta, which makes them #2 with dim prospects of movement.

    Alberta is ranked #1 in the official USports ranking, and that would normally make great sense for a team 15-1-0 in the CW. But UNB and St. FX are tearing up the AUS. Those three are ahead of the pack, no matter how you sort them. The field would be happy with a 2-point weekend against the Monkeys in the new year.
     
  17. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    Mid-Term Report: OUA West

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Instead of doing the whole OUA, I have broken it down into its two divisions. First up is the OUA West. In the East-West interlock the OUA East holds a 23-17 lead thus far. So as with the CW report, I start with conference chart and the average-of-averages.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    The OUA West is the weakest division in USports, but it is also usually the closest. This year there is a big gap between the top 4 and the rest. The bottom 6 are clearly C level. This means that the top 4 have a schedule heavily skewed towards the low end. Therefore, their rankings are very sensitive to results obtained against B and C+ teams.

    Let's first deal with the top 4.

    York was widely expected to do well. And they kinda have. Altough it would not be too hard to imagine them falling as low as 20th nationally.

    Laurier has more recently moved into the B level. They have only played 1 game against C+ teams (an OTL). They have moved from C to C+ and now to B.

    Guelph, like Laurier, is a B- bubble team. Realistically, they could be re-relegated back to C+. They are 1-2-1 outside the C level.

    Ryerson had been barely hanging on at B level, and finally were relegated. Once relegated, they responded with two wins to wrap up the first semester. So they and Guelph look like teams that will be hard to categorize. Should they both be in B? Or C+?

    Of the bottom 6, Windsor and Brock have a good shot to move up.

    Windsor has a chance to move up if they could start beating the weaklings. They are just 2-5-3 against C+ and C teams so far. If they were legitimately a C+ team they would be 50% against C+ (2-2-0) and 75% against C (4-1-1), or 6-3-1 in total. But they would also be 25% against the B level, and they are actually 75%. Their skew is the strangest in all of USports.

    Brock has a chance to move up if they could win consistently at the B and C+ levels. They have only had 1 game against C+ teams so far. That scheduling quirk reduces the confidence level of their results. They are 0% against C+ level based on one result. If they played two such games, and split, their results would consistent with C+ teams.

    Lakehead is one of 3 teams in USports where their conference ranking moves them ahead of teams who have a better average of averages. (Arguably, the teams from Lakehead down could be viewed as C-.) Lakehead is ahead of UWO because they have 13 points and UWO has 12, and Lakehead has played the more difficult strength of schedule.

    Western Ontario and Waterloo are two peas in a pod. UWO is coming off a non-playoff year and could well make it two-in-a-row. Waterloo is basically the same as UWO, except that they were in the playoffs last year. UWO is a point behind Waterloo, but have played a more difficult strength of schedule.

    Toronto is not as bad as last year. Not a very big deal when one considers just how bad they were last year. They can't win outside the C level, but they at least are .500 against the C level.
     
  18. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    Mid-Term Report: OUA East

    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]

    The OUA East has become the stronger of the two divisions in the OUA in recent years, but is also much more extreme. The division has been dominated by the three teams imported from the RSEQ, and that continues. Here are the charts.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Concordia and McGill are running neck-and-neck at the top. McGill has won 2 of their 3 games, one in OT. Concordia are having their best season in a while. Their average-of-averages just noses out McGill for top spot.

    Carleton is in a good position, and could well be in the nation-wide Top Ten if they could beat some of the stronger teams in the division. However, after being promoted to the B level on Nov 12th, they responded with 4 straight losses.

    UQTR is lucky to be in B level. By a pure ranking, they are 6th in the OUAE. They are precariously perched in the B level, B- actually. They must win early in the 2nd semester to avoid a drop to C+ and, if that happens, they would not necessarily be at the top of the C+ pool.

    Queen's and UOIT are right at the top of C+. However that group of four B- teams is more likely to drop down before C+ teams are promoted. UOIT is currently on an 8-game winning streak. Last year they started strong then faded. This year could be the reverse. To put things in perspective, it is possible for the top 6 teams in the OUA East to surpass the 1st place team in the OUA West.

    Ottawa is one of the strange teams. It is their good record against the B level that gives them a boost. They are only .500 against C+ and C teams.

    Nipissing is right near the top of the C level, so a C+ is not beyond the imagination. They would be there now if they were a touch better against the B level.

    RMC is having their best year in a while. Maybe they could win some national pride and beat Army for a change. Their 3 wins over UQTR changed their perception.

    Laurentian is a huge disappointment. They are last in the nation-wide poll. Is it time for a D level? 'Nuff said.
     
  19. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    Mid-Term Report: AUS

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    So are the leading teams that good or are the lower teams that bad? I don't recall the AUS being quite so extreme. The AUS could use more teams so that we could better gauge where the rest really stand. Here's the charts:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    UNB and St. F.X. are up at the top nation-wide, just ahead of Alberta. The differences between those teams is miniscule.

    SMU is not far off the pace, and are 100% against B level and under.

    Acadia was also in the A level at one time, making for a majority of the conference at A level. That seems extreme. But this is an extreme season in the AUS.

    UPEI gets a C+, for now. Although one does not expect C+ teams to beat A teams, 0-11-1 against them makes one wonder. They are 67% against the C level, which is a shade under par. They could become a C level team in the 2nd semester.

    Moncton have bounced back a bit but are still very much a C team. If they could improve that 0-11-0 record against A and B teams then a boost to C+ could happen.

    Dalhousie ranks as a disappointment thus far. They are 2-1-0 against the only other C team in the AUS, which is OK. But 0-14-1 against the rest is unreal.
     
  20. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    THE OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 #10​

    to Jan 7/18​

    Welcome to the first OHT35 of the new year! Having a semester break allows a chance to look very closely at every team's record. In doing so, and in seeing the glob of teams in the OUA West, after going over the numbers numerous times it became apparent that the categories needed more balance. Hopefully there will be fewer changes between categories going down the stretch. After all was said and done, 6 teams went down, 4 teams went up, and we have a new #1 in the rankings. And that comes after they suffered quite an upset loss.

    THE SCORES:

    Exhibition Games
    Dec 09 N.A.I.T. (ACAC) 0 Alberta 4
    Dec 10 Poland National Team 1 New Brunswick 4
    Dec 13 US All-Stars 3 Team Canada Jr. 0
    Dec 14 US All-Stars 4 Team Canada Jr. 3
    Dec 28 Guelph 3 Lakehead 2 (ot)
    Dec 29 Guelph 2 Lakehead 4
    Dec 29 Ryerson 5 New Brunswick 6
    Dec 30 Calgary 1 Alberta 4
    Dec 30 Ryerson 2 New Brunswick 8
    Dec 30 Windsor 2 Miami of Ohio (NCAA) 8

    Regular Season Games
    Jan 03 Saint Mary's 7 Moncton 1
    Jan 04 Toronto 1 Guelph 3
    Jan 05 Alberta 4 Manitoba 5 (ot)
    Jan 05 Mount Royal 8 Regina 2
    Jan 05 Saskatchewan 3 Lethbridge 2
    Jan 05 U.B.C. 3 Calgary 2 (ot)
    Jan 05 Moncton 4 Acadia 7
    Jan 05 St. F.X. 2 U.P.E.I. 3 (so)
    Jan 05 Brock 4 York 2
    Jan 05 Concordia 4 U.Q.T.R. 5 (ot)
    Jan 05 Ottawa 2 McGill 3
    Jan 05 R.M.C. 2 Carleton 4
    Jan 05 Ryerson 7 Laurier 1
    Jan 05 U.O.I.T. 2 Queen's 3
    Jan 05 Waterloo 1 W. Ontario 5
    Jan 05 Windsor 1 Lakehead 3
    Jan 06 Alberta 1 Manitoba 3
    Jan 06 Mount Royal 4 Regina 2
    Jan 06 Saskatchewan 2 Lethbridge 4
    Jan 06 U.B.C. 2 Calgary 4
    Jan 06 Acadia 4 Saint Mary's 2
    Jan 06 Dalhousie 5 U.P.E.I. 2
    Jan 06 St. F.X. 5 New Brunswick 2
    Jan 06 Guelph 2 Brock 1
    Jan 06 Laurentian 2 Nipissing 1
    Jan 06 Laurier 3 Waterloo 2
    Jan 06 McGill 3 Carleton 2
    Jan 06 Ottawa 0 Concordia 2
    Jan 06 R.M.C. 4 U.Q.T.R. 5
    Jan 06 W. Ontario 4 Ryerson 3 (ot)
    Jan 06 Windsor 4 Lakehead 5 (ot)
    Jan 06 U.O.I.T. 0 Queen's 3
    Jan 07 Dalhousie 0 New Brunswick 3
    Jan 07 York 3 Toronto 4

    THE TABLE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams
    ∞ In the official standings, Calgary were penalized 2 wins against UBC, a win and OTL against Lethbridge, and an OTL against Alberta for use of an ineligible player.


    [​IMG]

    One useful rankings measure at this time of the season is the “average of averages” method. This system becomes more reliable as the number of games played against each category increases. That is, one game can have a dramatic effect on your record against a given category. This time, there were only a few necessary changes to the result of this method:

    1. Lethbridge is ahead of UBC in the CW rankings and therefore jump ahead despite their lower table score.

    2. Same thing in the AUS where Moncton jumps ahead of Dalhousie.

    3. Though not in the same conference, UPEI jumps ahead of Regina due to a better record and a somewhat stronger strength-of-schedule.

    Here's the table:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    I ran the numbers based on the prior rankings and applying the new results. That caused a change to the rankings, which in turn altered the categories, and so on and so on until I wound up here.

    At the end, we arrived at what should closely reflect the final comparative rankings skew:

    [​IMG]

    Since there is just one non-conference game left on the schedule (RMC v Army), here is the inter-conference table:

    [​IMG]


    @USPORTS_Hockey
    @USPORTSca
    @CanadaWest
    @umbisons
     
  21. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    THE OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 #11​

    to Jan 14/18​


    Hey, a week with no teams changing categories!

    The bottom of the B level has been dubbed B- due to a bit of a gap arising. Only one departure from the rankings' calculated by “average of averages” arose here – once again Lethbridge edged out UBC (just barely).

    THE SCORES:

    Jan 10 Moncton 5 Saint Mary's 8
    Jan 10 McGill 4 U.Q.T.R. 5
    Jan 11 Guelph 5 Waterloo 2
    Jan 11 Toronto 5 Ryerson 7
    Jan 12 Calgary 2 Alberta 5
    Jan 12 Lethbridge 3 Mount Royal 5
    Jan 12 Manitoba 2 Saskatchewan 6
    Jan 12 U.B.C. 3 Regina 1
    Jan 12 New Brunswick 6 Dalhousie 3
    Jan 12 Saint Mary's 2 Acadia 6
    Jan 12 U.P.E.I. 2 St. F.X. 5
    Jan 12 Brock 2 Ryerson 1
    Jan 12 Carleton 9 Laurentian 6
    Jan 12 Lakehead 4 York 5 (so)
    Jan 12 Laurier 3 Windsor 2 (ot)
    Jan 12 Ottawa 4 Nipissing 2
    Jan 12 Queen's 0 McGill 3
    Jan 12 U.O.I.T. 3 R.M.C. 2
    Jan 12 U.Q.T.R. 4 Concordia 2
    Jan 13 Alberta 3 Calgary 5
    Jan 13 Manitoba 1 Saskatchewan 4
    Jan 13 Mount Royal 2 Lethbridge 1 (ot)
    Jan 13 U.B.C. 6 Regina 1
    Jan 13 Acadia 4 Moncton 2
    Jan 13 New Brunswick 2 St. F.X. 1 (so)
    Jan 13 U.P.E.I. 1 Dalhousie 4
    Jan 13 Carleton 3 Nipissing 4 (ot)
    Jan 13 Lakehead 1 Guelph 5
    Jan 13 Laurier 7 Windsor 2
    Jan 13 Ottawa 4 Laurentian 3 (ot)
    Jan 13 Queen's 2 Concordia 4
    Jan 13 U.O.I.T. 4 R.M.C. 1
    Jan 13 W. Ontario 3 York 1
    Jan 14 Brock 2 Toronto 3 (ot)

    Jan 12 Waterloo at W. Ontario - ppd

    THE TABLE:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams
    ∞ In the official standings, Calgary were penalized 2 wins against UBC, a win and OTL against Lethbridge, and an OTL against Alberta for use of an ineligible player.


    [​IMG]

    This is the first ranking in a long time where no teams shifted ranking categories. In recent weeks I pointed out the “average of averages” charts. This week there was only one change needed from those rankings, and that was (again) Lethbridge ahead of UBC. There are two areas of “straddling the border”, where teams are marked in blue. Between B and C+ we have Calgary and MRU. They are just .5 rankings apart (53.75 to 53.25) and between C+ and C (Windsor, Lakehead, and Western Ontario are in a dead heat).

    Some might be surprised that St. F.X. held on to #1. In order to balance their strengths-of-schedule, SFX would need to play 2 games aganst C teams whilst UNB plays an A team and a B team. They are 1 point apart and the likelihood is that SFX would at least close that gap in those games. The next AUS shuffle could be SMU dropping from A to B.

    One surprise this year is the success of B teams against A teams. Usually, they go around 25%. But this year is better.

    So with no shifts, and no interlock in the OUA, we don't need the supplementary charts this week.

    @USPORTS_Hockey
    @USPORTSca
    @CanadaWest
    @umbisons
    #OHT35
     
  22. cishockeyfan

    cishockeyfan Registered User

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    Its strange if you go to the official CIS site the Canada West Standings are out of whack, not in the proper point order
     
  23. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    Even in Canada West they have different standings in different places. The front page of their site has the points based on the 3-2-1 system. LeagueStat has no adjustment for the forfeits. Some others have adjusted the points but the order of the teams is mixed up. At first they only adjusted for Calgary's forfeited wins and still had their OTLs. That has now been corrected.

    IMO, Calgary should have been penalized something. But giving 4 points to UBC and 2 points to Lethbridge when they played the same illegal team and are fighting each other for a playoff berth seems wrong.
     
  24. mikeandI

    mikeandI Registered User

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    nobody is talking about it because nobody know what is going on.....rumor has it the player in question wasnt eligible in August, switched schools somehow became eligible
    and then when everyone who knew in August started to ask WTF ín October something was done....and then the player in question who everyone knew was ineligible was deemed eligible on something called a compassionate appeal process with outcomes pending
    i cant confirm his stats but pretty sure he has like 4 - 6 points in first 4 games after xmas....kinda wild if you think about it???
     
  25. Hollywood3

    Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    If you look at Calgary's summaries they deleted him but his stats are across from "45 CGY TEAM".

    I don't know why he was ineligible, unless he was not properly enrolled in Bedrock U. He played a year at NAIT and then a year of senior hockey.
     

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