2016 NHL Entry Draft (Part IV)

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Aavco Cup

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It wouldn't be some kind of bonanza. Maybe a 3rd at best. The difference between Laine and Pulju is small.

That deal would never be made by any team in any draft. That's no premium paid at all. There has to be a reason for the Jets to do it and a 3rd rd pick is not even close. An offer that bad would be considerred insulting.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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That deal would never be made by any team in any draft. That's no premium paid at all. There has to be a reason for the Jets to do it and a 3rd rd pick is not even close. An offer that bad would be considerred insulting.

Where did I indicate it was likely? Laine may be quite clearly the consensus #2 pick but that does not mean the gap between him and Puljujarvi is large. I think it is an extremely unlikely proposition. Extremely isn't a big enough word. It just ain't happening.
 

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Where did I indicate it was likely? Laine may be quite clearly the consensus #2 pick but that does not mean the gap between him and Puljujarvi is large. I think it is an extremely unlikely proposition. Extremely isn't a big enough word. It just ain't happening.

It would never happen, not in any draft. A team has to pay a premium to move up. You severely understated what the cost would be to Columbus.

IMO the premium needed to move up from 3 to #2 is larger than the one people here are proposing for the Jets to move from 22 to #15.
 

truck

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It would never happen, not in any draft. A team has to pay a premium to move up. You severely understated what the cost would be to Columbus.

IMO the premium needed to move up from 3 to #2 is larger than the one people here are proposing for the Jets to move from 22 to #15.
There is no premium in moving up if the CBJ believe the Jets will take JP regardless of where they pick.

There is only a premium is if:
  • CBJ is far higher on Laine that JP (and the Jets are not)
  • CBJ thinks the Jets will take Laine at two or trade the pick elsewhere (and the trading team will take Laine).
Otherwise there is no inherent value in moving up that one spot.
 

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There is no premium in moving up if the CBJ believe the Jets will take JP regardless of where they pick.

There is only a premium is if:
  • CBJ is far higher on Laine that JP (and the Jets are not)
  • CBJ thinks the Jets will take Laine at two or trade the pick elsewhere (and the trading team will take Laine).
Otherwise there is no inherent value in moving up that one spot.

I was really just talking generically about what the premium is to move from 3 to 2. It wasn't specific to this draft. Obviously it doesn't happen if the team at 3 is unwilling to pay the price.

In 2012 it was reported that the NYI offered CBJ all 7 of their draft picks including #4 for the #2 pick. CBJ said no.
 

Jeti

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I was really just talking generically about what the premium is to move from 3 to 2. It wasn't specific to this draft. Obviously it doesn't happen if the team at 3 is unwilling to pay the price.

In 2012 it was reported that the NYI offered CBJ all 7 of their draft picks including #4 for the #2 pick. CBJ said no.

Considering the Islanders took Reinhart at #4, that could have been a great trade for them. Or they could have just drafted better at #4 :laugh:
 

kcin94

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I was really just talking generically about what the premium is to move from 3 to 2. It wasn't specific to this draft. Obviously it doesn't happen if the team at 3 is unwilling to pay the price.

In 2012 it was reported that the NYI offered CBJ all 7 of their draft picks including #4 for the #2 pick. CBJ said no.

Generically that makes sense. However, in this draft if the Jets called Columbus and asked for a trade down, Columbus would know they would prefer Pulju over Laine. Hence as Columbus's GM I would say no thank you and get Laine for free. Worst case scenario, they get Pulju.

Now if Columbus made the call and the Jet preferred Pulju anyways... :)
 

truck

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I was really just talking generically about what the premium is to move from 3 to 2. It wasn't specific to this draft. Obviously it doesn't happen if the team at 3 is unwilling to pay the price.

In 2012 it was reported that the NYI offered CBJ all 7 of their draft picks including #4 for the #2 pick. CBJ said no.
Moving up two spots is very different than moving up one. Moving up one requires that the higher ranked team trick the lower ranked team about who they value or their intentions with the pick. It also requires the two teams to value the higher ranked player very differently.

It is rare for a reason.
 

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Generically that makes sense. However, in this draft if the Jets called Columbus and asked for a trade down, Columbus would know they would prefer Pulju over Laine. Hence as Columbus's GM I would say no thank you and get Laine for free. Worst case scenario, they get Pulju.

Now if Columbus picked up the phone and the Jet preferred Pulju anyways... :)

I'm not sure why Chevy would be making that call. I would think the onus would be on Jarmo but even if he did. Chevy would indicate his price and Columbus either pays it or stays at #3
 

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Moving up two spots is very different than moving up one. Moving up one requires that the higher ranked team trick the lower ranked team about who they value or their intentions with the pick. It also requires the two teams to value the higher ranked player very differently.

It is rare for a reason.

It's also rare because the price is high. Usually higher than a team is willing to pay. It's certainly would take more than a third round pick.

My prediction is that 1,2 & 3 are not traded. Maybe #4 is in play
 

truck

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It's also rare because the price is high. Usually higher than a team is willing to pay. It's certainly would take more than a third round pick.

My prediction is that 1,2 & 3 are not traded. Maybe #4 is in play

The price is only high if the higher ranked team can convince the lower ranked team that the player they select will be different because of the trade. I'd imagine most GMs would see through this bluff - because it would always be a bluff.
 

Fishy

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I was really just talking generically about what the premium is to move from 3 to 2. It wasn't specific to this draft. Obviously it doesn't happen if the team at 3 is unwilling to pay the price.

In 2012 it was reported that the NYI offered CBJ all 7 of their draft picks including #4 for the #2 pick. CBJ said no.

Now would you take Edmonton up on that offer if they called? PLB / Thachuk...
 

Aavco Cup

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The price is only high if the higher ranked team can convince the lower ranked team that the player they select will be different because of the trade. I'd imagine most GMs would see through this bluff - because it would always be a bluff.

The price is what it is. Not sure what bluffing has to do with it. Whatever the price is, I'm guessing Columbus will not pay it.
 

Fishy

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Lawless article on TSN:

Which Finn is the best fit for Jets?

http://www.tsn.ca/which-finn-is-the-best-fit-for-jets-1.491464

pot.gif~c200
 

truck

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The price is what it is. Not sure what bluffing has to do with it. Whatever the price is, I'm guessing Columbus will not pay it.

The price is nothing - literally zero - unless the lower ranked team actually thinks they will get a different player by moving up.

Scenario:

The Jets wouldn't trade down unless they wanted to draft JP over Laine.

CBJ would know this - because it is common sense.

Why would CBJ trade up to draft Laine if they think the Jets are planing to take JP at #2 - they wouldn't.

Unless the Jets could bluff them into thinking otherwise, there is no inventive for a trade.
 

Puckatron 3000

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The price is only high if the higher ranked team can convince the lower ranked team that the player they select will be different because of the trade. I'd imagine most GMs would see through this bluff - because it would always be a bluff.

I dunno.

Let's imagine CBJ is high on Laine over Pulju. Which is certainly a real possibility. Then they get a call from Chevy saying, "hey listen, we're going to take Laine. But we like Pulju too. So we figured we'd check out what you're willing to offer to swap picks. If it's nothing, we take Laine."

Now, Kekalainen has to make a decision. Is Chevy bluffing? Fine, do nothing and they get Laine for free. Or is Chevy legit? Which is a real possibility. Maybe even the Jets' true stance this year (not just made up for this discussion). By standing pat, Kekalainen passes up on the chance to get his preferred player at the #2 overall pick. This is for sure a game of poker (many hockey trades are), but I don't think it's an obvious bluff one way or the other.

It'd take a lot of balls to call the bluff, if you really wanted Laine. Because it might not be a bluff. And maybe you're walking away from your dream player for a price you'd have been very willing to pay.

Incidentally, this is the exact sort of situation in which you want to have a tight lipped GM. If Chevy had tipped his hand earlier, he screws any potential bluff. You might even want to play some misdirection, by having your scouts or brass fawn over Laine in a few interviews.
 

ps241

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I dunno.

Let's imagine CBJ is high on Laine over Pulju. Which is certainly a real possibility. Then they get a call from Chevy saying, "hey listen, we're going to take Laine. But we like Pulju too. So we figured we'd check out what you're willing to offer to swap picks. If it's nothing, we take Laine."

Now, Kekalainen has to make a decision. Is Chevy bluffing? Fine, do nothing and they get Laine for free. Or is Chevy legit? Which is a real possibility. Maybe even the Jets' true stance this year (not just made up for this discussion). By standing pat, Kekalainen passes up on the chance to get his preferred player at the #2 overall pick. This is for sure a game of poker (many hockey trades are), but I don't think it's an obvious bluff one way or the other.

It'd take a lot of balls to call the bluff, if you really wanted Laine. Because it might not be a bluff. And maybe you're walking away from your dream player for a price you'd have been very willing to pay.

Incidentally, this is the exact sort of situation in which you want to have a tight lipped GM. If Chevy had tipped his hand earlier, he screws any potential bluff. You might even want to play some misdirection, by having your scouts or brass fawn over Laine in a few interviews.

I agree with the bolded.
 

Aavco Cup

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The price is nothing - literally zero - unless the lower ranked team actually thinks they will get a different player by moving up.

Scenario:

The Jets wouldn't trade down unless they wanted to draft JP over Laine.

CBJ would know this - because it is common sense.

Why would CBJ trade up to draft Laine if they think the Jets are planing to take JP at #2 - they wouldn't.

Unless the Jets could bluff them into thinking otherwise, there is no inventive for a trade.

I think we are talking about different things.

I'm saying that it would take at least Columbus 2nd + 3rd (as an example) for the Jets to swap picks. I'm not saying either side does that or even wants to. I'm just talking about what the add would have to be. It has nothing to do with the players.
 

Rheged

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The price is nothing - literally zero - unless the lower ranked team actually thinks they will get a different player by moving up.

Scenario:

The Jets wouldn't trade down unless they wanted to draft JP over Laine.

CBJ would know this - because it is common sense.

Why would CBJ trade up to draft Laine if they think the Jets are planing to take JP at #2 - they wouldn't.

Unless the Jets could bluff them into thinking otherwise, there is no inventive for a trade.

I'm on board 100% with this and always thought the trade up a single spot speculation was silly.

It doesn't make sense at all if both teams like the same player. The only potential scenario is if the team is already looking to trade back and the team one spot behind doesn't want to let someone else swoop in and get the guy they like.
 

cbcwpg

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Just wondering....

How likely is it the the Jets approach Columbus, find out who they want, and then tell Columbus... OK, we won't pick so-and-so at number two, but we want you to throw in a later draft pick so we don't.

Sorry, didn't see the discussion above.... just wonder if Columbus would do this.
 

Whileee

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Just wondering....

How likely is it the the Jets approach Columbus, find out who they want, and then tell Columbus... OK, we won't pick so-and-so at number two, but we want you to throw in a later draft pick so we don't.

Sorry, didn't see the discussion above.... just wonder if Columbus would do this.

I think a #2 for #3 swap only works if Columbus likes Laine a lot more than Pulju, and the Jets prefer Laine, but think the gap is close between the two, or they prefer Pulju. Columbus needs to approach the Jets, not the other way around. That's the scenario where the Jets would get the most value.

If Matthews slips to #2, I could see some huge offers coming to the Jets, and I could see them perhaps even entertaining some.
 

truck

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I dunno.

Let's imagine CBJ is high on Laine over Pulju. Which is certainly a real possibility. Then they get a call from Chevy saying, "hey listen, we're going to take Laine. But we like Pulju too. So we figured we'd check out what you're willing to offer to swap picks. If it's nothing, we take Laine."

Now, Kekalainen has to make a decision. Is Chevy bluffing? Fine, do nothing and they get Laine for free. Or is Chevy legit? Which is a real possibility. Maybe even the Jets' true stance this year (not just made up for this discussion). By standing pat, Kekalainen passes up on the chance to get his preferred player at the #2 overall pick. This is for sure a game of poker (many hockey trades are), but I don't think it's an obvious bluff one way or the other.

It'd take a lot of balls to call the bluff, if you really wanted Laine. Because it might not be a bluff. And maybe you're walking away from your dream player for a price you'd have been very willing to pay.

Incidentally, this is the exact sort of situation in which you want to have a tight lipped GM. If Chevy had tipped his hand earlier, he screws any potential bluff. You might even want to play some misdirection, by having your scouts or brass fawn over Laine in a few interviews.

It is possible, but how high would you go in this game of poker? I can't imagine it would be that high - unless the teams value the pair of players very very differently.

This kind of deal is basically just two GMs saying "I'm smarter than you."
 
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