Prospect Info: 2016 Maple Leafs Draft Pick - 92nd Overall - Adam Brooks - C - Regina Pats [5-10/171]

[bigdirty]

So if we drafted Brooks 2 years ago (Nylander's draft) and he put up 120 points this year as a 4th round pick we would call him a steal, no?

Now we know what he did and he will go to the Marlies. Good pick imo.

And if we had drafted him two years ago people would've looked at his stats and freaked out because we drafted an undersized guy who had 11 points in his draft year.

Very interesting pick. Going to be fun to watch with the Marlies.

 

[RoadWarrior]

I had Borgstrom, Korshkov, Brooks, and Pitlick as the best OA players in this draft.

2 out of 4 aint bad.

 

[Garthinater]

Kinda weird but I was thinking this morning that the leafs should choose this guy

 

[Mess]

Scouting report

Brooks is a smaller forward who took huge strides forward as a ‘96 this year. He has great offensive smarts, and the hands and vision to exploit opportunities. He gets to the right spots in the offensive zone for both shooting opportunities as well as to take the pressure off his teammates by making himself available for a pass. He’s not a flashy guy, but more of the calm, calculated offensive force. Brooks is blessed with high-end vision and the ability to get pucks through the smallest of lanes. He uses his quick feet in tandem with his quick hands to explode through the tightest of lanes and generate separation to make a play. He will go into the gritty traffic areas, but is by no means a rough and tough player. Brooks is not a guy who just gives effort in the offensive zone as he has developed his defensive awareness over the past couple seasons. He is a player we have liked in the last two years, despite him struggling to stay in Regina’s top nine. But after being given a top-line role, he has really picked up his scoring. He was the WHL’s leading scorer and he plays a relentless two-way game. If he was a little bit bigger, we would have no doubts about him going inside the top three rounds, but for now, he is a later project guy.
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[SprDaVE]

Hunter seemed very excited for him. They'll evaluate him at the camp next week and see where he fits in terms of AHL or whatever.

 

[teebanas]

Went to high school with Adam and have been friends with him for quite some time, you guys got a good one here . Obviously I'm biased haha, but he's a very hard worker and was always very driven and vocal about improving. He has a good head on his shoulders . I know he's an overager but give him some time and I'm sure you'll all be very happy with this pick!

I'll have to keep one eye quietly on the leafs now that he's part of your organization !

 

[Jeypic]

Much more excited about this pick than I was before entering this thread look forward to watching him with the marlies.

 

[67Cup]

http://prospect-stats.com/blog/Overage_Prospects.html

This article was linked earlier but seems to have been a bit overlooked. The argument of the piece is that overagers are seriously undervalued and Brooks is named as the prime example of this phenomenon in the 2016 draft. It argues that Brooks' performance should make him a player considered from 28-33 overall, ie a late 1st, early 2nd rounder.

Worth reading. If near true (think Tanner Pearson) Brooks is a bargoon in the 4th.

I note that it does not speak about the value of Euro overagers.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Well he's over the moon.

http://reginapats.com/video-channels/all-videos/adam-brooks-reacts-to-being-drafted

 

[ChrisCall]

Article from prospectstats on how overagers are underrated:

http://prospect-stats.com/blog/Overage_Prospects.html

Adam Brooks is called out by name as a guy who's should go early.

This.
What i'm reading here is a player whom, from an analytics standpoint, is a late 1st / early second rounder, with a 1 in 3 chance of being an NHLer and a projected PPG of 0.56 ... drafted 92nd overall.

 

[SprDaVE]

Article from prospectstats on how overagers are underrated:

http://prospect-stats.com/blog/Overage_Prospects.html

Adam Brooks is called out by name as a guy who's should go early.

Damn dude...

Looking forward to the 2016 NHL draft, I ran the DEV numbers for all draft eligible overage players. One player in particular that I want to discuss is Adam Brooks. Brooks is relatively undersized at 5’10, but in his 3rd year of draft eligibility DEV suggests he’s worth selecting with a pick from 28 – 33 overall. Brooks was valued as a pick from 55 - 82 last year, demonstrating two things: 30 NHL teams passed over a prospect worth selecting in the 3rd round with their late round picks last year, and Brooks has improved considerably since last year. Some of Brooks’ successful comparables include players like Claude Giroux, Derek Roy, Ondrej Palat, Patrick O’Sullivan, Martin Erat & Jordan Eberle. I suspect he will not be selected as high as DEV values him, but if he’s available in the mid-rounds, Brooks seems like the obvious candidate to draft if a team is looking for a value selection. Obviously Brooks is not a lock to be a successful NHL player, but DEV indicates that he’s just as likely to be an impact NHL player as any other player who is optimally selected in the top of the 2nd round.

 

[Liminality]

http://prospect-stats.com/blog/Overage_Prospects.html

This article was linked earlier but seems to have been a bit overlooked. The argument of the piece is that overagers are seriously undervalued and Brooks is named as the prime example of this phenomenon in the 2016 draft. It argues that Brooks' performance should make him a player considered from 28-33 overall, ie a late 1st, early 2nd rounder.

Worth reading. If near true (think Tanner Pearson) Brooks is a bargoon in the 4th.

I note that it does not speak about the value of Euro overagers.

Great article, this was definitely a value draft.

 

[nuck]

Tyler Johnson clone, which I'm okay with.

Or a Mitch Holmberg clone. These two showed their difference pretty early in their first pro seasons though. There should be a good opportunity for a top 6 center with the Marlies next year to find out if he is one of the rare late bloomers.

 

[xMOHAWKx98]

you guys will like this kid. saw about 15 games last year. always the best player on the ice. very noticeable. not afraid to go into the corners. smart. was the best player on the Pats IMO

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Great article, this was definitely a value draft.

It's certainly interesting. It reminds me of the the college vs high school route in the mlb draft. They're much different drafts but the point remains the same in that there's nothing wrong with taking the more polished player or late bloomer if you like them enough. They made a conscious effort in this draft to go after overagers. It's a weird strategy in the nhl draft and frankly, one I've never really seen too much. To do it once or twice in a class is one thing, to do it as many times as Hunter did, it's clearly a strategy they're trying.

 

[RyanOhReally]

http://prospect-stats.com/blog/Overage_Prospects.html

This article was linked earlier but seems to have been a bit overlooked. The argument of the piece is that overagers are seriously undervalued and Brooks is named as the prime example of this phenomenon in the 2016 draft. It argues that Brooks' performance should make him a player considered from 28-33 overall, ie a late 1st, early 2nd rounder.

Worth reading. If near true (think Tanner Pearson) Brooks is a bargoon in the 4th.

I note that it does not speak about the value of Euro overagers.

Love this

 

[ChrisCall]

It's certainly interesting. It reminds me of the the college vs high school route in the mlb draft. They're much different drafts but the point remains the same in that there's nothing wrong with taking the more polished player or late bloomer if you like them enough. They made a conscious effort in this draft to go after overagers. It's a weird strategy in the nhl draft and frankly, one I've never really seen too much. To do it once or twice in a class is one thing, to do it as many times as Hunter did, it's clearly a strategy they're trying.

I'd like to see some real statistics on how many quality NHL players out of the whole were passed over or went unsigned. It feels like there's a lot of them. Certainly at least a couple on every team. Which suggests that there really is an untapped potential behind it.

I suspect, with regards to the article posted in this thread ... that in all those papers covering the Leafs desk, similar figure sets had been put together for hundreds of draft eligible players. This truly feels like a heavily analytics driven group of players.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Usually when you see a jump in points like his you can attribute it to a super skilled younger, draft eligible player inflating their point totals and that other player will usually have around the same number of points.

Last year he had 120pts in 72 games. The second highest on his team? Sam Steel, with 70pts in 72gp. FIFTY more points than #2 on his team. That is bonkers

 

[ULF_55]

I think we have to be clear on the overage category, and acknowledge overage in this reference is in regards to drafting, not playing.

Brooks was 19 this season, so a draft overage pick, but he was not an overage player with regards to the CHL.

 

[WilliamNylander]

Damn dude...

Insane.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall and see exactly why they were making each pick.

 

[p.l.f.]

marlies could use a number 1 center

seems like a good fit

 

[Pi]

He's an exciting prospect. We should see what he can do in the AHL next year. Anything above .75PPG and we have cause to be very excited about this guy.

 

[AppsSyl]

What I find interesting is the love and hype Dvorak got (being the same age) this year playing on a line with Marner and Tkachuk. Don't get me wrong Dvorak is good (and also ranked in the prospect watch as the #10 prospect). This kid playing for Regina in the WHL (which is the hardest of the 3 CHL leagues to rack up points in) had 120 points (90 primary I believe which was most in the CHL) and 50 more points than the next highest scorer on his team. I think we have a good one here.
The more I look at these picks, the more I like them. Clearly Hunter and team had a game plan and executed it.

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

What I find interesting is the love and hype Dvorak got (being the same age) this year playing on a line with Marner and Tkachuk. Don't get me wrong Dvorak is good (and also ranked in the prospect watch as the #10 prospect). This kid playing for Regina in the WHL (which is the hardest of the 3 CHL leagues to rack up points in) had 120 points (90 primary I believe which was most in the CHL) and 50 more points than the next highest scorer on his team. I think we have a good one here.
The more I look at these picks, the more I like them. Clearly Hunter and team had a game plan and executed it.

That's the same I see this draft pick. Or compare it to a guy like Connor Brown, who had about 120 points as well in his draft+2 season, but was on a team with McDavid and Fox. Of course Brown has been successful in the AHL since then, and looks like someone who could eventually settle in as a 2nd line winger, but this was a pretty clever pick for Hunter and co.

 

[RyanOhReally]

I'm excited to see him at Development Camp in 2 weeks. He finished 50 points ahead of Sam Steel, the next leading scorer. That's insane. I feel he's a guarantee to play on the Marlies, even as the 2C.

The argument to take Brooks is the same I had going into the draft with Brayden Burke. Had he been in our system during last year, we'd be SUPER excited. I agree with the Brown comparisons. Let's hope he hits the same stride in the AHL.