Speculation: 2016 Coyotes Off-Season Roster Discussion - Part 5

[SniperHF]

So are we done?

Click to read more...

 

[rt]

I hope not.

 

[Mosby]

I think we're done, though I'd still like to add a top-4 RD. Also, if we're keeping Hanzal, I'd prefer to extend him now than wait.

 

[rt]

With Hanzal I'm more willing to risk waiting to the deadline to trade him than I am willing to risk a long-term extension. I feel like the risk of missing out on trade deadline assets is less scary than the risk of ending up with a new fat contract ending up on the IR season after season.

With Pittsburgh signing Matt Cullen, I'm hoping we are all over Jim Rutherford about acquiring Eric Fehr. Very nice insurance policy. If Hanzal is healthy, and Strome and Dvorak are both ready for prime-time, than Fehr can simply slide to wing and push White down to 13th forward. If Strome and/or Dvorak aren't ready for prime time and/or Hanzal can't stay healthy, than we have another veteran guy who can fill in at center if needed. Doesn't hurt that he was a top PKer on a top PK team, either.

 

[Mosby]

Domi - Hanzal - Duclair
McGinn - Strome - Vrbata
Rieder - Dvorak - Doan
Nook - Richardson - Fehr
White

Could work. Fehr's contract is a little concerning. Cash doesn't matter (2 mil) just the fact that he's signed this year and next.

Also - General Fanager shows the Pens as 3M+ over the cap. That gets sorted out once they put Dupuis (3.75) on LTIR. Still, they're dangerously close to the cap after that. Like 500k. I'm sure they'd be happy to shed Fehr's 2M for dirt cheap.

 

[Jakey53]

With Hanzal I'm more willing to risk waiting to the deadline to trade him than I am willing to risk a long-term extension. I feel like the risk of missing out on trade deadline assets is less scary than the risk of ending up with a new fat contract ending up on the IR season after season.

With Pittsburgh signing Matt Cullen, I'm hoping we are all over Jim Rutherford about acquiring Eric Fehr. Very nice insurance policy. If Hanzal is healthy, and Strome and Dvorak are both ready for prime-time, than Fehr can simply slide to wing and push White down to 13th forward. If Strome and/or Dvorak aren't ready for prime time and/or Hanzal can't stay healthy, than we have another veteran guy who can fill in at center if needed. Doesn't hurt that he was a top PKer on a top PK team, either.

Domi - Hanzal - Duclair
McGinn - Strome - Vrbata
Rieder - Dvorak - Doan
Nook - Richardson - Fehr
White

Could work. Fehr's contract is a little concerning. Cash doesn't matter (2 mil) just the fact that he's signed this year and next.

Also - General Fanager shows the Pens as 3M+ over the cap. That gets sorted out once they put Dupuis (3.75) on LTIR. Still, they're dangerously close to the cap after that. Like 500k. I'm sure they'd be happy to shed Fehr's 2M for dirt cheap.

I know we are always concerned about health with Hanzal, but I feel this year if he goes down, we have White, and Gaudet in the AHL. Like most have been saying it is a throw away year, so it would be a could time to bring in a kid or two when Hanzal is down. I see the reasoning behind getting another C but for twenty games or so when Hanzal goes down, I think we can cover it.

 

[rt]

Hanzal healthy:
Domi-Hanzal-Duclair
McGinn-Strome-Vrbata
Rieder-Dvorak-Doan
Martinook-Richardson-White

Hanzal not healthy:
Domi-Strome-Duclair
McGinn-Dvorak-Vrbata
Rieder-Richardson-Doan
Martinook-White-Samuelsson

or
Hanzal not healthy:
Domi-Strome-Duclair
McGinn-Dvorak-Vrbata
Rieder-Richardson-Doan
Martinook-Guadet/Dauphin-White

Yeah. I guess that's fine. Richardson is a more capable 3C than Torrey Mitchell, anyway. I just worry about one of Strome or Dvorak not being ready. I HATE just gifting them a job like this. In the interest of true competition, I want to add Torrey Mitchell. So that they know if they don't land that 3C job, Richardson will. And Torrey Mitchell will be there to be the 4C, and we won't have to move White over.

Like Dvo don't make it (with Mitchell):

Domi-Hanzal-Duclair
McGinn-Strome-Vrbata
Rieder-Richardson-Doan
Martinook-Mitchell-White

If Hanzal gets hurt, Dvo gets the call-up.

I feel like we're gift wrapping top NHL positions to totally unproven junior players, right now, and I hate it. I want to trade a 3rd round pick for Torrey Mitchell. If the kids do force their way onto the roster based on merit than we get:

Domi-Hanzal-Duclair
McGinn-Strome-Vrbata
Rieder-Dvorak-Doan
Martinook-Richardson-Mitchell
White

Which is just fine and dandy from a depth stand-point. Much more so that the thin roster that we have to project now.

Trade a 3rd for Torrey Mitchell and I'm a happy man. Off-season done.

 

[SniperHF]

Kinda rambly post:

I have very serious doubts that Richardson ever sees anything close to what amounts to traditional 4rd line minutes despite that being his obvious place from a theoretical offensive capability standpoint. In addition to being a Tippett guy he's also just flat out better than an 4C under normal circumstances.

That also leaves us without a front line penalty killing center unless Gaudet makes the roster; Richardson plays the PK but traditionally isn't the first option. Hanzal has transitioned more to an offensive role and I think it's pretty clear they prefer that. All this poses an interesting problem for the Dvorak/Strome situation.

Do they each have a spot to lose as is mostly looked at here and the Vermette dumping would indicate? Or are they competing for the same spot and the team is fully willing to ship Strome to Erie or Dvorak to the AHL?

I like Torrey Mitchell a lot as a player and wouldn't mind him bring brought in at all. That complicates the situation further though.

Unlike the "we're gonna be the Oilers" fear of playing too many rookies, I don't necessarily fear playing as many of the rookies/2nd years players as they have now based on the depth chart. The reason is the defense should be improved and that should help insulate the young players despite not being their forward linemates. So If they keep Dvorak/Strome up or even put in a Dauphin and Gaudet in there instead I think there's adequate insulation elsewhere from a development perspective.

I continue to worry about the PK but I think at this point that problem is unsolvable with current assets so from a net-gain perspective the team might be better off trying an offensive 4th line that plays more minutes. Instead of having a traditional 4th line that plays a good deal less minutes, right now it looks to me like we'll see a team that doesn't have an obvious first line. Even last year this was somewhat the case already but the 4th line had no talent. This year there's actually enough scoring talent to spread around and give that line more time.

So what we might see is no line that averages in excess of 17min ATOI and a 4th line that plays 13 instead of 10.

At least one thing can be said about this offseason compared to the last couple. It's not very predictable so at least it's interesting

 

[rt]

Kinda rambly post:

I have very serious doubts that Richardson ever sees anything close to what amounts to traditional 4rd line minutes despite that being his obvious place from a theoretical offensive capability standpoint. In addition to being a Tippett guy he's also just flat out better than an 4C under normal circumstances.

That also leaves us without a front line penalty killing center unless Gaudet makes the roster; Richardson plays the PK but traditionally isn't the first option. Hanzal has transitioned more to an offensive role and I think it's pretty clear they prefer that. All this poses an interesting problem for the Dvorak/Strome situation.

Do they each have a spot to lose as is mostly looked at here and the Vermette dumping would indicate? Or are they competing for the same spot and the team is fully willing to ship Strome to Erie or Dvorak to the AHL?

I like Torrey Mitchell a lot as a player and wouldn't mind him bring brought in at all. That complicates the situation further though.

Unlike the "we're gonna be the Oilers" fear of playing too many rookies, I don't necessarily fear playing as many of the rookies/2nd years players as they have now based on the depth chart. The reason is the defense should be improved and that should help insulate the young players despite not being their forward linemates. So If they keep Dvorak/Strome up or even put in a Dauphin and Gaudet in there instead I think there's adequate insulation elsewhere from a development perspective.

I continue to worry about the PK but I think at this point that problem is unsolvable with current assets so from a net-gain perspective the team might be better off trying an offensive 4th line that plays more minutes. Instead of having a traditional 4th line that plays a good deal less minutes, right now it looks to me like we'll see a team that doesn't have an obvious first line. Even last year this was somewhat the case already but the 4th line had no talent. This year there's actually enough scoring talent to spread around and give that line more time.

So what we might see is no line that averages in excess of 17min ATOI and a 4th line that plays 13 instead of 10.

At least one thing can be said about this offseason compared to the last couple. It's not very predictable so at least it's interesting

im confused?

 

[SniperHF]

im confused?

I'm confused too , normally I'm pretty well hardened in my opinions but right now I'm mostly


I lean toward thinking one Torrey Mitchell doesn't improve the PK enough to justify the loss of potential minutes to developing players. So I think I'd like to see them just try using those normally defensive oriented minutes differently and avoid the PK as much as possible.

 

[rt]

I'm confused too , normally I'm pretty well hardened in my opinions but right now I'm mostly


I lean toward thinking one Torrey Mitchell doesn't improve the PK enough to justify the loss of potential minutes to developing players. So I think I'd like to see them just try using those normally defensive oriented minutes differently and avoid the PK as much as possible.

Adding Mitchell doesn't cost Strome or Dvorak an everyday spot. It costs White an everyday spot. Unless Strome or Dvorak can't beat White for a spot. If that's true, they shouldn't be in the league. I think we can all agree on that.

Unless you mean Dauphin or Gaudet. Those two haven't been able to do anything but put up statistically depressing outputs in the minors. Neither have approached earning an NHL spot and both should prove to be at least passable minor leaguers before we worry about them losing NHL spots.

 

[SniperHF]

Adding Mitchell doesn't cost Strome or Dvorak an everyday spot.

But if it doesn't, then trading for Mitchell also doesn't really help your concern about handing spots to Jr players? If they're willing to put him at wing it's impossible for me to imagine a scenario where Dvorak and Strome aren't 2 of the top 4Cs.

I also don't think they'd trade for Mitchell just to put him at wing 9 minutes a game. The Fehr idea makes more sense in that regard.

For Gaudet and Dauphin, Dauphin I agree with but I think Gaudet could make the team as essentially a faster Gordon so he wouldn't really need to have proved anything on offensive level in the minors. They already auditioned him in that role last season at times.

 

[Mosby]

I'd be curious to see our PK % and league rank across these different situations:

1) Good Mike Smith
2) Bad Mike Smith
3) Louie Domingue

That sounds like a pain to dredge up all those numbers, but my guess is that the PK looks decent for 1 and 3, and terrible for 2. If you're goalie can't stop the puck, the rest of the PK unit doesn't matter.

 

[rt]

But if it doesn't, then trading for Mitchell also doesn't really help your concern about handing spots to Jr players? If they're willing to put him at wing it's impossible for me to imagine a scenario where Dvorak and Strome aren't 2 of the top 4Cs..

If Dvo/Strome can't hack it:

Domi-Hanzal-Duclair
McGinn-Strome/Dvo-Vrbata
Rieder-Richardson-Doan
Martinook-Mitchell-White

If you don't pick up Mitchell, it's White in that spot. Which I guess is okay but White's not really a center. Mitchell is a bonafide 4C and Richardson can be a 3C in a pinch.

 

[Mosby]

I feel like we're gift wrapping top NHL positions to totally unproven junior players, right now, and I hate it.

Ron Hextall agrees with you:

"I've said this over and over," Hextall said. "If you look at the history of the League, the biggest danger is putting a player in the National Hockey League too early rather than sending a guy back to junior that the public believes is too good for junior or he's going to stagnate in his development."

He's talking about Provorov here.

I think Maloney agreed with that stance too. He certainly learned his lesson after Boedker was rushed, Turris was rushed, and Mueller was probably rushed. Who's to say we wouldn't have already ****ed up Max Domi if he was right now about to enter his 4th NHL season?

 

[SniperHF]

I don't think anyone's being rushed here though, gifted a spot or not. Top 25 prospects who have 3 years of junior experience *should* make an NHL roster in the majority of cases.

 

[strizzy16]

If Dvo/Strome can't hack it:

Domi-Hanzal-Duclair
McGinn-Strome/Dvo-Vrbata
Rieder-Richardson-Doan
Martinook-Mitchell-White

If you don't pick up Mitchell, it's White in that spot. Which I guess is okay but White's not really a center. Mitchell is a bonafide 4C and Richardson can be a 3C in a pinch.

Yeah, this scenario scares me a bit. if we want to be a borderline playoff team this year, it is really largely dependent on strome/dvo adjusting quickly to NHL play. And we all know that usually junior players dont exactly crush it in their first year 100% of the time. We are a bit spoiled with how Domi stepped in and contributed a lot of points his first year. I certainly hope Strome/Dvo have good years if they are immediately thrown in to the lineup, but it doesn't seem super realistic.

All that said, if Smith has some sort of renaissance year, you never know with a Tipp team. We've all seen Smith dominate. But there's no really strong evidence to point to this year as his 2nd renaissance-- he's only getting older.

 

[Blubba Jenkins]

I'd be curious to see our PK % and league rank across these different situations:

1) Good Mike Smith
2) Bad Mike Smith
3) Louie Domingue

That sounds like a pain to dredge up all those numbers, but my guess is that the PK looks decent for 1 and 3, and terrible for 2. If you're goalie can't stop the puck, the rest of the PK unit doesn't matter.

I hope this is what you were looking for to some extent:

A couple of weeks ago I was getting a little frustrated with this off-season because it seems like the PK hasn't been significantly addressed in terms of coaching or players. I want to say for the past couple of seasons that DT has used goaltending as a scapegoat for the PK (anecdotely, I'm not suffering through all 82 post-game interviews). That didn't feel quite right to me.

There are 42 goalies that played 30 or more NHL games last season.

Mike Smith Even Strength Save %: .933 (5 of 42)
Mike Smith Save % When Shorthanded: .869 (23 of 42)
Louis Domingue Even Strength Save %: .925 (22 of 42)
Louis Domingue Save % When Shorthanded: .848 (38 of 42)

Unless both goaltenders just happen to have meltdowns when we lose a man, it's pretty alarming how far they drop down the rankings. I think the problem either comes back to who we have on the ice or coaching, maybe even both. I have to imagine our 508:09 minutes of PK time last season (1st in the NHL) doesn't help. I was looking at this stuff shortly before Vermette got bought-out, which made the move really surprising to me. I realize he wasn't as good as he once was, but now who plays center on the PK? Hopefully White can help fill the void. Or pray that Dvorak can kill a penalty in the NHL in his rookie season.

As far as the difference between Good Mike Smith and Bad Mike Smith having a correlation between the team's PK, I don't have data to present, but just by looking through his gamelog, it doesn't seem there is one. There were plenty of his below .900% stinkers where he did and didn't let in goals on the PK. And then there were his over .930 save % games late in the season where either all of the goals he let in that night were all scored even-strength or all on the PK.

Interesting, but not entirely related our 499:45 minutes of PP was also the most in the league. If my math is correct that means roughly 20-25% of the games we played last season were on some variety of special teams.

 

[hbk]

I'm a big fan of Gaudet as our 4C. He's the guy I circle when I look at who we could lose in an expansion draft.

 

[Jakey53]

Ron Hextall agrees with you:

"I've said this over and over," Hextall said. "If you look at the history of the League, the biggest danger is putting a player in the National Hockey League too early rather than sending a guy back to junior that the public believes is too good for junior or he's going to stagnate in his development."

He's talking about Provorov here.

I think Maloney agreed with that stance too. He certainly learned his lesson after Boedker was rushed, Turris was rushed, and Mueller was probably rushed. Who's to say we wouldn't have already ****ed up Max Domi if he was right now about to enter his 4th NHL season?

I wonder what Hextall would have done if he had McDavid, Eichlel or Matthews? Most times what he said is correct though.

 

[Jakey53]

I don't think anyone's being rushed here though, gifted a spot or not. Top 25 prospects who have 3 years of junior experience *should* make an NHL roster in the majority of cases.

I agree. I don't do any trades until I see how training camp shakes out.

 

[Mosby]

Thanks for pulling together all those numbers, Blubba.

The other point on Mike Smith is the injury. How long had the double hernia issue been affecting him? And why did he play through that for more than a month? That's insane. Maybe we need new team doctors.

Speaking of additions, did the idea of adding an assistant GM/senior advisor just die out? I doubt Dallas lets us take Les Jackson in mid-August, or any other team/executive for that matter.

 

[cobra427]

I hope this is what you were looking for to some extent:

A couple of weeks ago I was getting a little frustrated with this off-season because it seems like the PK hasn't been significantly addressed in terms of coaching or players. I want to say for the past couple of seasons that DT has used goaltending as a scapegoat for the PK (anecdotely, I'm not suffering through all 82 post-game interviews). That didn't feel quite right to me.

There are 42 goalies that played 30 or more NHL games last season.

Mike Smith Even Strength Save %: .933 (5 of 42)
Mike Smith Save % When Shorthanded: .869 (23 of 42)
Louis Domingue Even Strength Save %: .925 (22 of 42)
Louis Domingue Save % When Shorthanded: .848 (38 of 42)

Unless both goaltenders just happen to have meltdowns when we lose a man, it's pretty alarming how far they drop down the rankings. I think the problem either comes back to who we have on the ice or coaching, maybe even both. I have to imagine our 508:09 minutes of PK time last season (1st in the NHL) doesn't help. I was looking at this stuff shortly before Vermette got bought-out, which made the move really surprising to me. I realize he wasn't as good as he once was, but now who plays center on the PK? Hopefully White can help fill the void. Or pray that Dvorak can kill a penalty in the NHL in his rookie season.

As far as the difference between Good Mike Smith and Bad Mike Smith having a correlation between the team's PK, I don't have data to present, but just by looking through his gamelog, it doesn't seem there is one. There were plenty of his below .900% stinkers where he did and didn't let in goals on the PK. And then there were his over .930 save % games late in the season where either all of the goals he let in that night were all scored even-strength or all on the PK.

Interesting, but not entirely related our 499:45 minutes of PP was also the most in the league. If my math is correct that means roughly 20-25% of the games we played last season were on some variety of special teams.

Great research, thanks for sharing. The information tells me:

1. Smith is a pretty good goalie.
2. We spend too much time without the puck. That is why we lead the NHL in penalty minutes/PK time. Gogo will help with his puck moving skills.
3. Our PK% is not very good, third worst in the NHL. Again Gogo will help, but we need to improve in this area a lot, not sure I see it as of yet. Staying out of the box will help the most(see #2).
4. We were 20th in PP%. This can get better with Strome/Domi/Duclair and also, our point play has to be better. Maybe Gogo/Stone/Murphy emerge as decent point guys?

If we could be 10th best on the PP and 15th on the PK, it would make a huge difference this year.

 

[Kaizen]

I'm a big fan of Gaudet as our 4C. He's the guy I circle when I look at who we could lose in an expansion draft.

Depending on adds and subtracts prior to the expansion draft Gaudet's gotta be at least even money to be protected.


As I understand it you have to expose players that have played a certain number of games over the last season or two. At this point he does not qualify.

 

[Mosby]

Not allowing 18 shorties (or whatever it ended as) will be a big help too.