Speculation: 2016-17 Oilers vs. 2019-20 Oilers ... How do they compare?

[JordanGalhanth]

This discussion has popped up in "Around the League", and I wondered if it warranted its own thread.




Oilers record on February 14, 2017:

30-19-8 =68 out of 114 possible points

Oilers record on February 14, 2020:

30-20-6 = 66 out of 112 possible points




Perhaps we aren't that far off from 2016-17 as we thought we were.

Posts about this topic from "Around the League"...

2016-2017 was a much more consistent team.

not really
Oilers started out 7-1 in October, then had a 5-8-1 November which included losing 5 in a row
then finished on a 12-2 tear

I would argue that at the time we had a better top six but I don't know if that is the case anymore, maybe if we had one more top six forward.

Click to read more...

 

[oXo Cube]

16-17 was notably stronger IMO. 2 consistent scoring lines and much better goaltending.

The 19-20 team is largely being carried by it's elite powerplay, but I'll take it.

 

[fuswald]

16-17 was notably stronger IMO. 2 consistent scoring lines and much better goaltending.

The 19-20 team is largely being carried by it's elite powerplay, but I'll take it.

I actually prefer the current team. Couple of weak spots but it seems many are improving as the season plays on. One good winger and we are not only playoff worthy but may win 2 rounds or better.

 

[Dynamic]

I remember that 16-17 team and expecting them to crumble down the stretch but they just went to work and killed it down the stretch.

I agree with the 16-17 team being more consistent with two scoring lines. But having Drai and Mcdavid at an absolute elite level gives this team a bit more quick strike capability. I think another top six winger and at least up front I would give the current team a slight edge.

 

[Canovin]

RNH was no show in 16-17 playoffs. I actually have faith in him this time around.

 

[ghostnights]

Nuge has been on another level recently. I'm really impressed with his play all over the ice.

 

[CupofOil]

16-17 was notably stronger IMO. 2 consistent scoring lines and much better goaltending.

The 19-20 team is largely being carried by it's elite powerplay, but I'll take it.

The 2nd line was far from consistent. Lucic was poor at even strength, RNH and Eberle were ghosts most of the season until the last month or so when they revved it up then ghosted again in the playoffs. McDavid and whoever is a much better 2nd line.
This top line now is better than the McDroon line if they keep pacing like this.
I also think Sheahan and Archibald are better than any bottom 6ers from that team.
The '16-'17 defense was a little better mainly due to the dip in Klefbom and Larsson now compared to then. Nurse has taken the Sekera role and Bear the Russell role.

The big advantage the '16-'17 team had was Talbot. He stole a whole bunch of games that year whereas I don't feel like the goalies stole many games this year. Talbot was a top 5 goalie that year. Huge advantage.

 

[Oil Dood]

RNH was no show in 16-17 playoffs. I actually have faith in him this time around.

I would attribute that to Eberle more then I would anyone on the ice during that time. I have never seen a high end forward make that many mistakes and he was so afraid of contact.

 

[Oil Dood]

The 2nd line was far from consistent. Lucic was poor at even strength, RNH and Eberle were ghosts most of the season until the last month or so when they revved it up then ghosted again in the playoffs. McDavid and whoever is a much better 2nd line.
This top line now is better than the McDroon line if they keep pacing like this.
I also think Sheahan and Archibald are better than any bottom 6ers from that team.
The '16-'17 defense was a little better mainly due to the dip in Klefbom and Larsson now compared to then. Nurse has taken the Sekera role and Bear the Russell role.

The big advantage the '16-'17 team had was Talbot. He stole a whole bunch of games that year whereas I don't feel like the goalies stole many games this year. Talbot was a top 5 goalie that year. Huge advantage.

Nail on the head here.
Talbot was the bigger difference, and now that you point it out we might actually be a better team this year because we do not have the goaltending we had that year. Talbot covered up a lot of mistakes made by our team, occasionally Smith or Kosk will do that , just not consitantly.

 

[Canovin]

I would attribute that to Eberle more then I would anyone on the ice during that time. I have never seen a high end forward make that many mistakes and he was so afraid of contact.

I didn't mention Ebs because he's no longer part of the team. But both were non factors in the playoffs.

Lots of things are more known on this current teams. We know that if RNH-Drai-Yamamoto cools off, we can move Drai or RNH with McDavid. We also have more room to grow after the deadline. One top 6 LW(for McDavid) away from making the Oilers lethal.

While Talbot was hot in 2016-17, we have a better overall tandum in Kosko and Smith than Talbot and Brossoit. Brossoit that year just wasn't good period

 

[oXo Cube]

The 2nd line was far from consistent. Lucic was poor at even strength, RNH and Eberle were ghosts most of the season until the last month or so when they revved it up then ghosted again in the playoffs. McDavid and whoever is a much better 2nd line.

Ok this is fair, consistent is probably the wrong word. Productive would be more accurate. Two 50 point players on the second line is better than we're going to do this year, and 2016-17 was much lower scoring.

This lead to the Oilers being a much better even strength team in 16-17 than they are today. That team finished the season +23 at evens. The Oilers so far this year are -13(This has been improving considerably over the last month or so in fairness).

We are where we are in the standings because of the historically good power play, but like I said I'm not complaining. Those goals still count.

 

[Oil Dood]

I didn't mention Ebs because he's no longer part of the team. But both were non factors in the playoffs.

Lots of things are more known on this current teams. We know that if RNH-Drai-Yamamoto cools off, we can move Drai or RNH with McDavid. We also have more room to grow after the deadline. One top 6 LW(fpr McDavid) away from making the Oilers lethal.

While Talbot was hot in 2016-17, we have a better overall tandum in Kosko and Smith than Talbot and Brossoit. Brossoit that year just wasn't good period

I hope we get Smith from the playoffs last year.
I honestly believe that we are one top six forward away from making some real noise in the playoffs. The West honestly is kind of wide open(a couple of excellent teams but a lot of middle teams).

The 2nd line in the playoffs for us in 2017 vanished, and it was after that playoffs that I wanted Lucic traded as well(Nuge and Ebs notwithstanding), Lucic was supposed to be this big , physical bad ass in the playoffs, instead Kassian and Maroon were. I really wanted to keep Maroon and somehow lose Lucic.

 

[3IR]

Regular season I give it to 16/17 just because we had more scoring depth and Talbot was unreal.

If I had to guess about playoffs, I’d expect this team to go further for 3 reasons:

mcdavid/drai have more experience and are even better than they were at that time.

Larson and Nurse are exactly the kind of dmen who will shine in the playoffs especially with some experience behind them in what to expect, and nurse taking a step forward overall.

mike smiths playoff stats, despite a relatively small sample size are elite.

I really think we’re a top 6 forward away from being a favourite to win the west.

 

[CupofOil]

Ok this is fair, consistent is probably the wrong word. Productive would be more accurate. Two 50 point players on the second line is better than we're going to do this year, and 2016-17 was much lower scoring.

This lead to the Oilers being a much better even strength team in 16-17 than they are today. That team finished the season +23 at evens. The Oilers so far this year are -13(This has been improving considerably over the last month or so in fairness).

We are where we are in the standings because of the historically good power play, but like I said I'm not complaining. Those goals still count.

That team was propped up a lot by the PP too. I think a better comparison would be post-Yamamoto to that team because this is an entirely different team after the Yamamoto call up. The even strength production has shot up drastically because they essentially added a 1st line with his inclusion.

You're right about the production with the two 50 point players but look at it this way, would you take the Lucic-RNH-Eberle line or Neal-McDavid-Kassian? The answer is easy for me because of one player. When you have McDavid on your 2nd line (1A line if you prefer?), you automatically have one of the best 2nd lines in the league. That RNH line in '16-'17 was a chore to watch on most nights.

Then you're looking at Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl vs. RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto. Still early days with the latter line but based on this 15 game sample size, I like the current line better based on production, eye test (they dominate every shift seemingly) and upside.

Ultimately, I look at it this way. I think the teams are fairly equal but I think this team has more growth potential especially if they can get a winger to play with McDavid or a 3rd line center. This team when it's on it's game is better than that team but their lows are lower too.
It's an interesting comparison though and I can see compelling arguments from both sides.

 

[PaPaDee]

Goaltending is the biggest difference IMO.

 

[oXo Cube]

You're right about the production with the two 50 point players but look at it this way, would you take the Lucic-RNH-Eberle line or Neal-McDavid-Kassian? The answer is easy for me because of one player. When you have McDavid on your 2nd line (1A line if you prefer?), you automatically have one of the best 2nd lines in the league. That RNH line in '16-'17 was a chore to watch on most nights.

Then you're looking at Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl vs. RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto. Still early days with the latter line but based on this 15 game sample size, I like the current line better based on production, eye test (they dominate every shift seemingly) and upside.

Ultimately, I look at it this way. I think the teams are fairly equal but I think this team has more growth potential especially if they can get a winger to play with McDavid or a 3rd line center. This team when it's on it's game is better than that team but their lows are lower too.
It's an interesting comparison though and I can see compelling arguments from both sides.

I don't think we're too far apart here so I'll let this discussion go by stating that I think we're 1 top 6 forward away from the teams being pretty much the same.

Doesn't even need to be a particularly good one.

 

[CupofOil]

I don't think we're too far apart here so I'll let this discussion go by stating that I think we're 1 top 6 forward away from the teams being pretty much the same.

Doesn't even need to be a particularly good one.

As I added to my previous post before you quoted it, I think the better comparison is Yamamotoilers vs. '16-'17 Oilers. Yamamotoilers is an entirely different team because they essentially added a 1st line after his call up.
10-3-2 and outscoring opponents 63-46 compared to 20-17-4 being outscored 118-130 so I wouldn't say that they need a top 6 forward just to equal the '16-'17 team. If they get a top 6 forward then this team is definitely better than that one on paper IMO.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I'd rather have Pouliot than Chiasson...

 

[Zenos]

Assuming a healthy MacDavid, I think I prefer the 2020 Oilers' top-6, especially when one takes into consideration the disappearing act of RNH-Eberle-Lucic in 2017. The emergence of Yamo has drastically altered the look of this team.

The rest of the team (on paper) looks worse though. Nurse has certainly improved since then and the arrival of Bear has helped - but Larsson and Russel have kinda regressed and Sekera is obviously gone. And lets not forget about Talbot's heroics that season.

But that's the beauty of the playoffs - they're not played on paper.

 

[Fourier]

McDavid and Draisiatl are significantly better than their 2016-2017 selves. So is Nuge. I think that the bottom six this year could end up being better by the end of the season. The defenses are about the same I think with the edge to 2016-2017 because of Larsson. Goaltending is probably a wash. I think adding Yamamoto makes this the better team. But if they add a legitimate top 6 forward at the deadline this year's team would be my choice.

 

[Stud Muffin]

The 16/17 group was better.

 

[bone]

Player by player

McDavid 2020 > McDavid 2017
Draisaitl 2020 >> Draisaitl 2017
RNH 2020 > RNH 2017
Yamamoto 2020 = Eberle 2017 (Yamamoto may be better, but calling a wash because of sample size)
Kassian/Neal 2020 = Lucic/Maroon 2017 but 2017 more physical
Sheahan/Archibald/Chiasson 2020 ~ Letestu/Kassian/Caggiula maybe slight edge to 2017
Gagner/Haas/Nygard/Khaira/Russell 2020 < Pouliot/Slepyshev/Hendricks/Desharnais/Pakarinen/Lander 2017

So for forwards I'd lean towards this team moreso because the top half is better enough to make up the deficeincy towards the back half.

Defense

Klefbom 2020 = Klefbom 2017 (maybe slight edge to 2017)
Larsson 2020 <Larsson 2017 (but he's slowly improving again)
Nurse 2020 < Sekera 2017 (but I'm sure many could argue the opposite)
Bear 2020 > Russell 2017
Benning 2020 >= Benning 2017
Russell 2020 > Nurse 2017 (but it's close)
Jones 2020 >> Gryba/Fayne/etc (2017)

Overall defense is probably a bit better in 2017 on the top end but a little more deep this year.

Goaltending

Smith/Kosko 2020 << Talbot 2017
Smith/Kosko 2020 >> Gustaffson/Brossoit 2017

Goaltending definitely better in 2017.

Special Teams
PP 2020 > PP 2017 (but 2017 was still good 5th overall and 23%)
PK 2020 >> PK 2017 (5th vs. 17th)

Overall, I'd say pretty even all things considered with the 2017 team maybe built a little better for playoffs with slightly better forward depth, more physical offense, stronger top end defense and stronger goaltending.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

No Kesler and Getzlaf in 2020.

 

[bone]

No Kesler and Getzlaf in 2020.

Good point. Looking at the likely opposition in these playoffs, I don't see any of them getting significant favoritism from refs like the veteran Sharks and Ducks did, though Vancouver does draw a shit ton of penalties.