Prospect Info: 2015 Ranking #4

[Former Ladder]

Voted Meloche, but looks like next time for him.

I am still not getting the Pickard hype here. Not that he isn't a good prospect to have, he just is not this high up. I feel the same when I see people say Hishon should be in our healthy top 9 lineup. I get that we picked them and desperately want them to amount to something but I just do not see the upside with either that others do.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Pickard can help win games at the NHL level right now, that counts for something. I don't see the upside that folks who just saw the .932 sv% do but what's he's capable of doing right now holds some value.

 

[Taak19]

Siemens for me. Once he makes it he is going to be great. (i hope)

 

[BK Avs]

Pickard can help win games at the NHL level right now, that counts for something. I don't see the upside that folks who just saw the .932 sv% do but what's he's capable of doing right now holds some value.

This. It seems pretty strange to me that people are rating players that haven't even come close to whiffing professional action over a guy who has already helped the big club win some games.

 

[Former Ladder]

Pickard can help win games at the NHL level right now, that counts for something. I don't see the upside that folks who just saw the .932 sv% do but what's he's capable of doing right now holds some value.

I'd argue that Siemens, Bigras, Rantanen, Hishon, Elliot and maybe Meloche and Rendulic (if he counts) could all contribute to wins at the NHL level for stretches. Obviously their roles would not be nearly as pivotal of a role but they would help. I just feel that Picks was playing on adrenaline and above his head while the team was trying harder to protect the kid in net. I think he will always have that compete level but will not have any sort of sustained numbers at the level he played or close to it.

 

[Former Ladder]

This. It seems pretty strange to me that people are rating players that haven't even come close to whiffing professional action over a guy who has already helped the big club win some games.

I guess I am seeing it as more of a prospect ranking and based on my expectations of the kind of player they will be when they are past that "prospect" stage (around age 23). As players get older and closer to that point or to the point they can make an impact on the big club, their picture becomes more focused whereas the more recent draft picks still have the luxury of living out some potential. If I feel like a prospect is likely to hit a higher potential than someone who has already shown they can make an impact, then I still think they are the better prospect (not necessarily the better player now).

 

[BK Avs]

I'd argue that Siemens, Bigras, Rantanen, Hishon, Elliot and maybe Meloche and Rendulic (if he counts) could all contribute to wins at the NHL level for stretches. Obviously their roles would not be nearly as pivotal of a role but they would help. I just feel that Picks was playing on adrenaline and above his head while the team was trying harder to protect the kid in net. I think he will always have that compete level but will not have any sort of sustained numbers at the level he played or close to it.

I guess I am seeing it as more of a prospect ranking and based on my expectations of the kind of player they will be when they are past that "prospect" stage (around age 23). As players get older and closer to that point or to the point they can make an impact on the big club, their picture becomes more focused whereas the more recent draft picks still have the luxury of living out some potential. If I feel like a prospect is likely to hit a higher potential than someone who has already shown they can make an impact, then I still think they are the better prospect (not necessarily the better player now).

I get that. But goalies invariably take longer to develop than skaters, especially forwards, so it's not like Pickard is behind his development schedule at this age. He's probably right on schedule if not a touch ahead. I don't think anyone was counting on him to come in and play as many games as well as he did. Elliott, Siemens, and Hishon -- all of whom you mention above -- are definitely behind their development schedule. Meloche is a shiny new toy draft pick (who, from what I read, wasn't even particularly impressive at development camp...not that that matters), and people seem to be vaunting him well over Picks. And Bleakley, who was just rated ahead of Pickard, is certainly not behind his development schedule, but isn't about to make the team and hasn't really shown anything that I'm aware of that he will be the impact forward we want him to be. Pickard, while the sample size is small, has at least shown he has the ability to contribute.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I guess I am seeing it as more of a prospect ranking and based on my expectations of the kind of player they will be when they are past that "prospect" stage (around age 23). As players get older and closer to that point or to the point they can make an impact on the big club, their picture becomes more focused whereas the more recent draft picks still have the luxury of living out some potential. If I feel like a prospect is likely to hit a higher potential than someone who has already shown they can make an impact, then I still think they are the better prospect (not necessarily the better player now).

And that's fair to see it that way, there is no "wrong" way to look at it. For me it's a balance between potential and realized potential. The guys already playing pro do get graded on a harsher curve fair or not but there hasn't truly been a dominant player for us at that level either. I know there is a premium on potential but I see value in what they could contribute literally on the ice tomorrow as well.

 

[Former Ladder]

And that's fair to see it that way, there is no "wrong" way to look at it. For me it's a balance between potential and realized potential. The guys already playing pro do get graded on a harsher curve fair or not but there hasn't truly been a dominant player for us at that level either. I know there is a premium on potential but I see value in what they could contribute literally on the ice tomorrow as well.

That's where I think it would be two different rankings. The value of a prospect to me is a balance between their projected floor and ceiling, weighted more toward the area of this window that they seem to realistically be able to realize. As a prospect ages, their ceiling and floor range shrinks as we get a clearer picture of the type of player they can be. There is definitely merit to a player who can contribute sooner rather than later but my view is that does not make them a better prospect, just a better player in the moment (and a safer bet of knowing what you have in a certain player).

And my view is maybe slightly off for goalies, like Stazz mentioned, because their development curve is irregular. All things equal, I want Picks to get his time in SA and then be able to make the jump to Varly's backup once Berra is out the door. I just don't see him as more than a backup at his peak.

All in all, it depends what a person values in a prospect. I could see where some people value stability and a safe bet that a player can play at the NHL level (like Picks, who has proven he has the capability) over unrealized potential that may or may not actually happen.