Prospect Info: 2015 NHL Entry Draft Talk

[Unspecified]

http://www.tsn.ca/mcdavid-tops-mckenzie-s-final-draft-ranking-1.296839

Timo Meier sounds just like the player we need.

 

[BigG44]

Bob McKenzie's rankings are out.

11. Werenski
12. Meier
13. Conner
14. Zboril

The reports on Zboril seem to be all over the place, but he's a guy that when I read about him made me thing he could be a surprise pick. I've seen him in the 20's lately though, but then seeing him back high on McKenzie's list makes me wonder.

It'll be interesting to see how it all goes, but I think most would hope he's behind several forwards. Like I've previously mentioned, he's an interesting name if they could get a 2nd 1st rounder after their pick. Not quite sure Daley or any one they might trade has the value to pull that off though.

 

[LT]

Samsonov at #19 on that list was rather surprising for me.

 

[Satan]

Cirelli at 71 lmfao

 

[BigG44]

If you don't want to dig through all the Bob McKenzie twitter questions, mashing a few of them together ....

There's a third tier of players from 6 to 11 on his list, and the only two players he sees as a threat to break that up are Meier and Conner. He also said that group from 6 to 11 is razor thin so there's a real chance any one of those players could go early or late in that range.

So if you go off of McKenzie's belief based on talking to scouts, Dallas will have a choice between two of Zacha, Crouse, Provorov, Barzal, Rantanen, Werenski, Meier, or Conner ... and more than likely it will be between Meier or Conner. That said, there is the smallest of chances one of those bigger names is on the table.

Hopefully Bob is right. I think you'd have to be pretty happy to end up with any of those names.

 

[Timani]

Would love any of those guys really. I also really like the Russian goalie and Jeremy Roy. It would be nice to have more picks for sure.

Roy just seems like a Nill kind of pick. High end hockey IQ and great compete level, plus the elusive RHD.

 

[LT]

Supposedly three teams interested in moving up to #3, Arizona is taking offers on the pick.

I wonder if Nichushkin + 12th for 3rd could work. We probably lose that deal, though.

 

[Satan]

Some draft rankings of mine in the OHL are here

Had a pretty busy week last week. Birthday, convocation, job interview & offer.


Back at the writing grind for a bit. Not sure if I'll be able to keep it up as a hired man. Haven't written for my own site in a bit either.


Anyway, #6 on that list was between Konecny and Zacha. I see-sawed hard. Took Zacha as my #5.

With that being said, I'd be pretty pissed off if we took Konecny at #12. He fits our team but I don't see him becoming a top 6 player on our team.

 

[Michael Farkas]

I wonder if Nichushkin + 12th for 3rd could work. We probably lose that deal, though.

I love Marner. Don't do that though.

 

[Loui21Eriksson]

There is no way I use Nuke to move up in the draft unless it's a top 2 pick.

 

[Michael Farkas]

For what it's worth (which is whatever change you guys throw into my hat), my draft rankings at the top are pretty much done (barring me stumbling upon someone that I'm absolutely in love with that I wasn't previously aware of)...I can't imagine anyone else breaks the top 12 at this point...

1. McDavid
2. Eichel
3. Marner
4. Provorov
5. Hanifin
6. Strome
7. Barzal
8. Werenski
9. Rantanen
10. Zacha
11. Crouse
12. Connor

 

[Satan]

Nick Merkley is in my 12.

1. McDavid
2. Eichel
3. Marner
4. Barzal
5. Provorov
6. Strome
7. Crouse
8. Hanifin
9. Rantanen
10. Werenski
11. Connor
12. Merkley
---------------
13. Zacha
14. Meier
15. Zboril
16. Svechnikov
17. Konecny
18. Eriksson-Ek
19. White
20. Chabot

 

[Michael Farkas]

Actually, come to think of it, I don't have Merkley ranked anywhere yet. He's in the TBD pile still...so I guess I lied, there could be a change to my top 12, I don't know...

My next group looks somewhat similar. But no Meier. Meier is probably going to be a mid-late 20's rank for me...

 

[Satan]

I may have been really spoiled when watching Meier but he seems like such a flexible player.

Out of curiosity, how do you rate Meier versus Paul Bittner or Jake DeBrusk?

 

[LT]

Mike, would you mind explaining Provorov at 4?

 

[Satan]

 

[BigG44]

I'd like to see that source material. You'd be able to take that data and evaluate each team's draft and the strength of a draft.

For example, you could look at a given season with that data and see if Dallas scouts performed better or not against the averages.

You could also look at the entire 2003 draft and see how much better it was than average.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

The chart seems to have switched Dallas and the Sharks draft picks....either he really knows something, or maybe he is a bit shoddy.....

That said, I have seen similar charts. Would agree it would be interesting to go back and find out if Stars are average, better or worse, given their draft position. A while ago, Hockey News had them as average, but when you have potential busts from 2008-2012, in Glennie, Campbell, Oleksiak and Faksa, it would drag your rating down a bit.

Hopefully Nuke, Honka and the new guy bring it back up.

 

[Satan]

The chart seems to have switched Dallas and the Sharks draft picks....either he really knows something, or maybe he is a bit shoddy.....

That said, I have seen similar charts. Would agree it would be interesting to go back and find out if Stars are average, better or worse, given their draft position. A while ago, Hockey News had them as average, but when you have potential busts from 2008-2012, in Glennie, Campbell, Oleksiak and Faksa, it would drag your rating down a bit.

Hopefully Nuke, Honka and the new guy bring it back up.

I actually think you're wrong.

Example for Round #1
#1 - EDM 1.00
#2 - BUF 0.96
#3 - ARI 0.92
#4 - TOR 0.88
#5 - CAR 0.84
#6 - NJD 0.81
#7 - PHI 0.78
#8 - CBJ 0.75
#9 - SJS 0.72
#10 - COL 0.69
#11 - FLA 0.66
#12 - DAL 0.64
#13 - LAK 0.61
#14 - BOS 0.59

Then on the far right hand column, he takes the sum of all the draft pick probabilities and sorts it to show who has the highest "draft pick value" of playing 200 NHL games.

We don't have a 3rd rounder, so obviously that's a relatively high value pick, thus a couple teams pass us in the rankings.

 

[BigG44]

You're right that he's basically totaled the probability of each pick turning into a 200+ game NHLer, but that sum doesn't tell us anything, especially when teams don't have an equal number of picks. A better way to express that table would be to multiply the probability you won't pick a 200GP player of each pick. That means subtracting each number above from 1 and multiplying across.

That would tell you that Dallas currently has a 17% chance of not picking a 200GP player or in other words the Stars have an 83% chance of selecting at least one 200+ player. You can't just multiply the numbers in the chart because that would actually tell you the chance Dallas has of drafting a 200+ player with every single pick ... would be awesome but it's something less than 0.0002%.

That would give would be one way to express it.

I can't remember how to apply those numbers to determine the chance more than one but less than all of the picks turn into a 200+ player. It would be interesting to see Dallas' chance of landing 2 or say 3. For example in 2010 where they picked both Klingberg and Nemeth. Both stand a good chance to become 200+ players. We'll know in a few years. That's a pretty big win likely on their part they pulled it off.

 

[BigG44]

Interesting note, if Dallas still had that 3rd round pick, they'd have a 21% chance that player was a 200+ game player. That would mean Dallas would have had a 13.4% chance of not picking an NHL player or 86.6% of actually succeeding at taking an NHLer.

Losing that 3rd round pick only hurt their odds by 3.6%

 

[________]

Draft profiles
NHL Draft Profiles 1-10
NHL Draft Profiles 11-20
NHL Draft Profiles 21-30

 

[BigG44]

I guess NBC 5 is about to do a special on a local kid who could go in the 2nd round of the draft.

I've never heard of David Cotton, but this scouting report makes him sound pretty good.

A smart and competitive two-way center with high offensive upside. Exhibits smooth natural skating ability with a top speed that can be hard for the opposition to handle. Soft hands allow him to let his creativity flow free. Possesses a prolific skillset; he can snap the puck to the back of the net, make a seemingly tricky pass look easy, or hold onto the puck and establish a firm forecheck until the right opportunity shows itself. All-in-all, a player who has the ability to dominate offensively and defensively due to his size, speed, individual skills, and intelligence with and without the puck. (Curtis Joe, EP 2014)

A big fast center with two-way ability sounds like a solid addition. The fact that he's going to Boston College is icing on the cake. He's going to a premier school, and Dallas'current developmental logjam at center with Dickinson, Shore, Faksa, and Smith will be out of Texas by the time he's ready to go pro.

If he's not the best option at the 2nd round pick, and you can't get a 3rd ... so be it, but kid seems like a real prospect that would fit in quite well with Nill and Ruff's team.

 

[R S]

12. Dallas Stars – Zach Werenski – A few teams consider selecting Werenski (Florida and Columbus, plus others) before the Stars step up and grab the consensus top-11 guy and 3rd best defender in the draft. Werenski has a bucket full of offensive skill but still projects as a two-way defender at the next level due to good size, skating ability and compete. He gives the Stars a high-end defensive prospect for their system while also filling a big organizational need.

If not Werenski? Timo Meier.

http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/2015/06/final-2015-mock-draft.html

 

[Mr Misty]

http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/2015/06/final-2015-mock-draft.html

A big organizational need? What a joke.