Prospect Info: 2015 Leafs Pick #155 - Stephen Desrocher - Defense - Oshawa OHL - 6' 3"/198

[Martin Skoula]

is there a difference between drafting a huge guy or small guy in the 3th+ rounds?

There's a difference between drafting a guy who scores points and one who doesn't in the "3th+ rounds".

Even shutdown D don't make it to the NHL if they're under a certain PPG threshhold in Jr. Almost all of Hunter's fridges were under that threshhold

 

[Mr Hockey]

There's a difference between drafting a guy who scores points and one who doesn't in the "3th+ rounds".

Even shutdown D don't make it to the NHL if they're under a certain PPG threshhold in Jr. Almost all of Hunter's fridges were under that threshhold

I'm realistic and use common sense, a 3rd pick is a 3rd pick regardless of size and skill, its crapshoot, Hunter understands that, you don't.

 

[Its not your fault]

I'm realistic and use common sense, a 3rd pick is a 3rd pick regardless of size and skill, its crapshoot, Hunter understands that, you don't.

Wouldn't common sense then be that the stay at home defensemen with the most points is picked first. Not the ones averaging less points.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Wouldn't common sense then be that the stay at home defensemen with the most points is picked first. Not the ones averaging less points.

Player has to be scouted and his potential upside will be determined by scouts.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I'm realistic and use common sense, a 3rd pick is a 3rd pick regardless of size and skill, its crapshoot, Hunter understands that, you don't.

We have literally thousands of 3rd to 7th round picks to look at. Defensemen who score more than X PPG (don't have the numbers on hand) make the NHL something like 10-20% of the time, defensemen who score less than X PPG make the NHL something like 1 or 2% of the time. It's like buying a lottery ticket you know has a worse payout because it looks prettier than the other ones. Yeah they're both lottery tickets, but one of them is an obviously better value.

I understand basic math, do you?

 

[93LEAFS]

There's a difference between drafting a guy who scores points and one who doesn't in the "3th+ rounds".

Even shutdown D don't make it to the NHL if they're under a certain PPG threshhold in Jr. Almost all of Hunter's fridges were under that threshhold

It applies to CHL guys. Rasanen (the one that gets bashed the most), was above it. The Middleton pick was questionable. Mattinen was a gamble on a guy who didn't play on a stacked team. Without ice-time to figure out who isn't getting an opportunity it's hard to tell. Guys like Letang and Weber were below that threshold, mainly because they didn't get to play, then exploded later on. Or even guys who play but can't, such as Vlasic.

The moral of that threshold is to absolutely avoid highly hyped guys who fall below it (Luke Schenn, Zadorov, Ellerby, Mueller, McIlrath, Tinordi, etc), and probably guys who just break it (G. Reinhart, Duncan Siemens, Gudbranson). Not to completely avoid long-shots in the late rounds, considering how low the odds of getting an impact player in those rounds is.

 

[Martin Skoula]

It applies to CHL guys. Rasanen (the one that gets bashed the most), was above it. The Middleton pick was questionable. Mattinen was a gamble on a guy who didn't play on a stacked team. Without ice-time to figure out who isn't getting an opportunity it's hard to tell. Guys like Letang and Weber were below that threshold, mainly because they didn't get to play, then exploded later on. Or even guys who play but can't, such as Vlasic.

The moral of that threshold is to absolutely avoid highly hyped guys who fall below it (Luke Schenn, Zadorov, Ellerby, Mueller, McIlrath, Tinordi, etc), and probably guys who just break it (G. Reinhart, Duncan Siemens, Gudbranson). Not to completely avoid long-shots in the late rounds, considering how low the odds of getting an impact player in those rounds is.

I understand the argument if there are external stressors driving PPG down or rapid development curves (dominating uncommon leagues, switching to defense late, late growth spurts etc), but it's not worth putting consistent year-to-year value into those picks, especially if its clear that they don't have NHL level skating. A scout favorite that happens to be below that threshhold once in a while is fine, taking 2-3 of them in the 3rd-5th round every year is not worth it.

Also re: Vlasic, Weber, and Letang, they don't really apply to the Fridge argument considering they had strong skillsets that weren't limited to "is 6'6".

 

[93LEAFS]

I understand the argument if there are external stressors driving PPG down or rapid development curves (dominating uncommon leagues, switching to defense late, late growth spurts etc), but it's not worth putting consistent year-to-year value into those picks, especially if its clear that they don't have NHL level skating. A scout favorite that happens to be below that threshhold once in a while is fine, taking 2-3 of them in the 3rd-5th round every year is not worth it.

Also re: Vlasic, Weber, and Letang, they don't really apply to the Fridge argument considering they had strong skillsets that weren't limited to "is 6'6".

It applies to Shea Weber who was a raw 6'4 bean pole when drafted.

I think the only people this argument applies to is Nielsen, Middleton, Desrocher, Gordeev, and Mattinen (although, Mattinen had raw tools but didn't play, where rapid growth was expected when he got an opportunity). Nielsen exploded in his D+1, removing the production knock. Rasanen breaks the threshold you are talking of. JD Greenway absolutely had skill and tools but has been derailed by what appear to be off-ice issues.

 

[4thline]

Just gonna throw out there that Keaton Middleton currently (at 20) has the same AHL statline as Josh Manson had at 23 coming out of college

 

[Kiwi]

Just gonna throw out there that Keaton Middleton currently (at 20) has the same AHL statline as Josh Manson had at 23 coming out of college

I liked him

He was really strong defensively and had a strong physical element, I thought he skated pretty well to

I wanted to give him an AHL deal at the very least, might not have been a bad idea if you look at his stat line

 

[Mr Hockey]

Just gonna throw out there that Keaton Middleton currently (at 20) has the same AHL statline as Josh Manson had at 23 coming out of college

I have been watching his stats this season in the AHL, he has 5 goals already, he has more goals than Liljgren. I dunno what to think but will keep an eye on him. I mentioned this before and got abused by 93Leafs the Hfboard super scout in the Marlie thread even though he apparently has me on ignore and wants everyone to do the same lol

 

[Mr Hockey]

I liked him

He was really strong defensively and had a strong physical element, I thought he skated pretty well to

I wanted to give him an AHL deal at the very least, might not have been a bad idea if you look at his stat line

I thought the same.

 

[Duke16]

Just gonna throw out there that Keaton Middleton currently (at 20) has the same AHL statline as Josh Manson had at 23 coming out of college

Don't love him, but I kind of wanted him on an AHL deal atleast. Defends well, tough as nails, and he actually skates quite well. Gordeev has better raw offensive tools, but even Middleton was a better prospect imo.

 

[WillNy29]

is there a difference between drafting a huge guy or small guy in the 3th+ rounds?

Lol probably...

considering when I say fridge I literally mean built like a fridge is his only real transferable skill?

I don't mind the leafs taking a fridge every now and then. If it pans out maybe you'll have another Hal Gill. How come teams get Brayden Points, Nikita Kucherovs, Johnny Gaudreaus, Brad Marchands later on in the draft (common theme here)or even Anthony Cirellis hell zach hyman would be a better pick than any fridge? Shouldn't we aspire to draft players like this in our "crapshoot" ? (because players like that provide tangible value to the organization). Those picks have value the way you make it sound ("crapshoot") its like he just said ok lets pick all these tall guys f*** it.

Also what are the odds a player with projectably limited upside makes an impact vs a guy with questionable size with high upside makes an impact? Since we are playing craps? Its like rolling a dice that has 2 faces with fridges and 4 faces with with higher upside. Then why are we limiting ourselves? We should swing for the fences now and again.

A top 5 most profitable team in the sport backed by the largest telecom organizations in Canada should be able to foot the bill to look for every single advantage in the draft and not be looking mediocre. Tampa should never draft better than us.

 

[Its not your fault]

Player has to be scouted and his potential upside will be determined by scouts.

Right and they picked wrong this time did they not?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Playing for Western.

 

[Menzinger]

It applies to CHL guys. Rasanen (the one that gets bashed the most), was above it. The Middleton pick was questionable. Mattinen was a gamble on a guy who didn't play on a stacked team. Without ice-time to figure out who isn't getting an opportunity it's hard to tell. Guys like Letang and Weber were below that threshold, mainly because they didn't get to play, then exploded later on. Or even guys who play but can't, such as Vlasic.

The moral of that threshold is to absolutely avoid highly hyped guys who fall below it (Luke Schenn, Zadorov, Ellerby, Mueller, McIlrath, Tinordi, etc), and probably guys who just break it (G. Reinhart, Duncan Siemens, Gudbranson). Not to completely avoid long-shots in the late rounds, considering how low the odds of getting an impact player in those rounds is.

I don’t necessarily completely disagree with the sentiment regarding later round picks on long shots, in right circumstances it can make sense

But At the moment it seems as if none of Hunters bigger boys in rounds 2-7 are going to pan out.... and considering they opted to take so many of them in ‘16 and ‘17, not exactly a good look for the Leafs scouting

 

[Mr Hockey]

I don’t necessarily completely disagree with the sentiment regarding later round picks on long shots, in right circumstances it can make sense

But At the moment it seems as if none of Hunters bigger boys in rounds 2-7 are going to pan out.... and considering they opted to take so many of them in ‘16 and ‘17, not exactly a good look for the Leafs scouting

can you name the players you're talking about?

 

[Menzinger]

can you name the players you're talking about?

Guys like korshkov, greenway, Middleton, Bobylev, Martinez, rasanen, ect. Some of these guys are obviously mid to late round picks so odds were always low, but considering these last two Hunter draft classes seemed to be guided by the same philosophy it makes it look worse.

Not to mention some of the better picks from those classes (Will and Scott) are goalies so the whole “big and gritty” thing never applied to them.

Edit: I don’t want to seem like I’m necessarily anti Hunter, I thought he was fine for the most part. But I was also relatively unimpressed with his results vs his reputation.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Guys like korshkov, greenway, Middleton, Bobylev, Martinez, rasanen, ect. Some of these guys are obviously mid to late round picks so odds were always low, but considering these last two Hunter draft classes seemed to be guided by the same philosophy it makes it look worse.

Not to mention some of the better picks from those classes (Will and Scott) are goalies so the whole “big and gritty” thing never applied to them.

Edit: I don’t want to seem like I’m necessarily anti Hunter, I thought he was fine for the most part. But I was also relatively unimpressed with his results vs his reputation.

Korshkov and Rasanen are in the KHL right now, Rasanen is still CHL eligible. Greenway is still developing? Middleton is doing well in the AHL, I liked Bobylev, a tough Russian kid with skill.

IMO, i see 8-9 guys eventually making the NHL from the 15/16 draft.


What do you think happens to Bracco, is he a fit for our lineup or do we move him in a deal for a specific type of player?

added: You're are clearly anti- Hunter/Lou, and pro- Dubas, I see your posts

 

[Menzinger]

Korshkov and Rasanen are in the KHL right now, Rasanen is still CHL eligible. Greenway is still developing? Middleton is doing well in the AHL, I liked Bobylev, a tough Russian kid with skill.

IMO, i see 8-9 guys eventually making the NHL from the 15/16 draft.

added: You're are clearly anti- Hunter/Lou, and pro- Dubas, I see your posts

Look, if you think Rasanen, Korshkov, greenway are NHL bound, that’s fine. Personally I’m skeptical until proven otherwise, their development track post draft certainly doesn’t suggest they’re heading in the right direction.

And liking Dubas doesn’t make me anti the other guys (even though I didn’t want either to be GM for this season). I really liked Hunter’s 2015 draft choices, and thought Lou made some very good moves during his first 12 months as Gm. Unfortunately for both guys I felt they made more errors the longer they were on the job.

I thought it would have been interesting to see how Hunter would have worked with Dubas moving forward but it seems as if their personalities clashing wouldn’t allow for it to happen.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Look, if you think Rasanen, Korshkov, greenway are NHL bound, that’s fine. Personally, I’m skeptical until proven otherwise, their development track post draft certainly doesn’t suggest they’re heading in the right direction.

I never said Greenway is NHL bound, he does have a nice skillset though. I am saying there is nothing wrong with targetting bigger players in the draft in the later rounds and hoping one or 2 pans out. Bracco is most likely going to be moved because we don't need his skill set, Grudstrom skillset is needed though.

 

[93LEAFS]

I don’t necessarily completely disagree with the sentiment regarding later round picks on long shots, in right circumstances it can make sense

But At the moment it seems as if none of Hunters bigger boys in rounds 2-7 are going to pan out.... and considering they opted to take so many of them in ‘16 and ‘17, not exactly a good look for the Leafs scouting

I think people who expected him to come in and be a godsend and outdraft the entire NHL were delusional. He had to turn around a pretty sub-par regime. Even the best teams make huge mistakes (Look at Tampa passing on Filip Forsberg for Koekkeok). Hunter's legacy will be determined by Liljegren, Dermott, Woll, Scott, Bracco, Grundstrom, and maybe a wildcard emerging. People underplay the Marner pick, forgetting a bunch of people (including Bob's scouts, would have gone Hanifin). Marner was 3 on our board. Considering how most people had a clear tier of 3 behind Eichel and McDavid, with our most valuable pick in decades we identified the right player out of that group. Dermott is probably our best day 2 pick in a decade if not longer. His main competition is Gunnarsson, Hayes, Komarov, and Connor Brown. I hope and think if Dermott is a long-term 2nd pairing D-man, he is probably more valuable than any of those players.

Right and they picked wrong this time did they not?

I'm just wondering, who do you expect drafted after Desrocher to amount to anything of substantial value. Finding an NHLer above what you can find for cheap on waivers in a longshot that late. The only guy who looks like a sure thing is Nutivara. I'd prefer Niku or Seney, but I'm not really going to lose sleep over it. We also could have taken Nutivara where we took Korostolev, who people loved (because he was ranked higher and fell, and he was an enigmatic Russian with skill), yet we didn't sign him either.

I get going after Hunter's picks like Korshkov (whose career has been decimated by injuries post-draft) and Rasanen. But, nitpicking 6th rounders is pointless.

 

[justafan22]

View attachment 179585

Playing for Western.

Seems like a guy who could make more money overseas

 

[Menzinger]

I never said Greenway is NHL bound, he does have a nice skillset though. I am saying there is nothing wrong with targetting bigger players in the draft in the later rounds and hoping one or 2 pans out. Bracco is most likely going to be moved because we don't need his skill set, Grudstrom skillset is needed though.

I don’t mind drafting bigger players (it’s not as if I’d have a rule against drafting anybody over 6 feet lol), but it’s their skill sets that matter first and foremost. I wouldn’t take a bigger, lesser skilled guy if there were other better options available.