Speculation: 2014 (Larkin) ReDraft thread (And debate)

[BinCookin]

Our Rasmussen thread unfortunetly got off topic discussing a 2014 redraft and where Larkin would appear.
Hopefully we can move that discussion here.

Here is the redraft i performed for the Drafting thread.

1	David Pastrnak
2	Leon Draisaitl
3	William Nylander
4	Nikolaj Ehlers
5	Brayden Point
6	Aaron Ekblad
7	Viktor Arvidsson
8	Dylan Larkin
9	Brandon Montour
10	Sam Reinhart
11	Robby Fabbri
12	Kevin Fiala
13	Nick Schmaltz
14	Christian Dvorak
15	Ondrej Kase
16	Kevin Labanc
17	Danton Heinen
18	Alex Tuch
19	Nick Ritchie
20	Sam Bennett
21	Brendan Perlini
22	Jared McCann
23	Adrian Kempe
24	Jakub Vrana
25	Anthony DeAngelo
26	Ivan Barbashev
27	Gustav Forsling
28	Julius Honka
29	Nikita Tryamkin
30	Haydn Fleury

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Click to read more...

 

[Dotter]

If Wings can draft Larkin where they did, imagine what they are going to get this year with their 6th-10th pick! Future looking bright, folks.

 

[Orthodox Caveman]

I remember seeing a debate about Larkin vs Point in another thread. I don’t know much about Point other than his point totals. I think he’s closer to Point than he is to Reinhart.

Can Larkin possibly reach #5 in a redraft with a better supporting cast?

 

[Tatar Shots]

While I wouldn't take everyone listed above Larkin before him, I think everyone besides Arvidsson at least has a case to go before him in a redraft. There is no way I take a 25 year old winger who put up 61 points on a fantastic team over the 21 year old center who put up 63 points on a garbage team

 

[Orthodox Caveman]

All in favor of moving Larkin up to #7 say aye

 

[Hen Kolland]

Is this a true redraft considering the teams selecting at the time, is it an overall personal ranking, is it a specific ranking based specifically on the Wings?

 

[kliq]

Damn Bruins, they essentially got a lottery pick at #25. Hate them, but have to give them props.

 

[TheMule93]

1. Pastrnak
2. Draisaitl
3. Nylander
4. Ekblad
5. Larkin
6. Point
7. Ehlers
8. Arvidsson
9. Reinhart
10. Montour

i have Larkin above Point because 1) im a biased red wings fan 2) point had only 3 more points on a significantly better team. Theyre pretty much equal in reality.

Im not a fan of Ehlers, i don't get the hype for him. He's got speed and a shot, thats it. His IQ is pretty low, cant cycle, i think hes already at his potential while someone like Nylander who plays a much smarter game can improve much more.

im almost tempted to put Draisaitl above pastrnak, ill have to think on that more.

 

[BinCookin]

Is this a true redraft considering the teams selecting at the time, is it an overall personal ranking, is it a specific ranking based specifically on the Wings?

to answer your question. this redraft is my own invention, no polls, no team preference, nothing to do with wings.

Just my own invention of BPA for each pick.

I had wanted to do polls for each redraft in the NHL talk polls section... but it was taking much much too long. (I redrafted all of 2001-2015) So I was mostly looking for "approximate" redrafting position.

As we know any redraft could involve recency bias, and many other factors. So my listing above is simply BinCookin' 2018 Opinion on a redraft.

Hope that clarifies.

 

[BinCookin]

...
i have Larkin above Point because 1) im a biased red wings fan ....

ill have to think on that more.

1)Ya the bias part is of course hard, if anything i probably over-compensate and put red wings players lower than i'd like. In my polls regarding the 2015 draft, random posters insisted i undervalued Mantha.

2) Ya its a really hard task to do the redrafts "right". I would argue thy cant be done "right" as everyone has their own opinions.

 

[SuperScript29]

This draft is hard to re-rank at this point, I would say outside of Pastrnak, Draisaitl, and possibly Ekblad, anyone of Larkin/Nylander/Ehlers/Point can be at #4. The point is Larkin is in the top-7 at this point, and there's no right or wrong in shuffling those 4 guys around the 4-7 positions.

Arvidsson is good, but considering that potential plays a role in young players, he's 25 and being compared to a bunch of 21/22 year olds. We need to give it a few more years until we move him up with these guys.

 

[Redder Winger]

If Wings can draft Larkin where they did, imagine what they are going to get this year with their 6th-10th pick! Future looking bright, folks.

Or Svechnikov.

 

[Flowah]

2) Ya its a really hard task to do the redrafts "right". I would argue thy cant be done "right" as everyone has their own opinions.

It would be iffy, but you could do a poll/aggregate people's opinions on a redraft. Get a good number of fans from each team to submit one for the first round, then see where each player lands overall. That sort of diversification would even out the bias a bit. And I sort of believe in the wisdom of the crowd on this one. If 90% of people consider a player a good player, he's probably a good player.

That'd be a crap ton of work though.

 

[Frk It]

Loved the growth I saw from Larkin this year, would probably have him #5 or #6. He does need to get his shooting % up though, some of these other guys have kind of a big advantage on him in goal scoring. Hopefully he snipes some pucks in the dungeon this summer.

Ekblad has been pretty disappointing for me. His assist totals are pretty staggeringly low for how many minutes he plays, and Florida has some good forwards. I don't really get what is going on there. I think he will put it together, but as of right now he should not go that high in a re-draft.

Pasta is a beast. He's the easy #1 for this draft class IMO.

I think Ehlers gets a little overlooked from this draft class... he's really good.

 

[BinCookin]

...

That'd be a crap ton of work though.

And basically why i abandoned that tact. I wanted my drafting analysis done faster.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

If Wings can draft Larkin where they did, imagine what they are going to get this year with their 6th-10th pick! Future looking bright, folks.

Ehh, you can say this about every team at some point. Ottawa picked Karlsson at 15 and they still suck.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I think Larkin would go even higher than that. We have to remember that Larkin got drafted with this thought that he had somewhat limited offense. So a huge part of his value was compete level, defensive play, IQ, and character. He's still got that stuff, he just also has the offense now. Plus, he can play center at the NHL level now. That's a valuable thing.

If people overvalued Toews for that stuff, I have to think they'd do the same for Larkin.

 

[Redder Winger]

Larkin, after a bad year, rebounded with a good year. But he also had every opportunity because virtually nobody played in front of him.

I'd go like so, as of right now.

1. Draisaitl
2. Pastrnak
3. Ekblad
4. Nylander
5. Larkin
6. Point
7. Montour
8. Reinhart
9. Dvorak
10. Fabbri
11. Heinen
12. Bennett
13. Schmaltz
14. McCann
15. Arvidsson
16. Fleury
17. Fiala
18. Labanc
19. Virtanen
20. Perlini
21. Tuch
22. Kempe
23. DeAngelo
24. Honka
25. Donato

But this can EASILY change. A year ago, Larkin looked anemic. Now he's talked about like the franchise.
For one, I expect a lot of defenseman to rise in the next 2-3 seasons.
Secondly, there are a lot of young guys who played 15-16 minutes. If their coach gives them 19-20 minutes, you could see some of these really step up

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I remember seeing a debate about Larkin vs Point in another thread. I don’t know much about Point other than his point totals. I think he’s closer to Point than he is to Reinhart.

Can Larkin possibly reach #5 in a redraft with a better supporting cast?

I think that's the true debate with Larkin vs. Point. Point obviously was better statistically this year, but also played on a much, much better team.

 

[lidstromiscool]

I'd have Larkin at 4th, 5th at worse behind Nylander but I think they are pretty even

 

[BinCookin]

...
5. Larkin
...

But this can EASILY change.

Oh ya, I am actually only really confident about redrafting 2010 or earlier years. People wanted me to scan up to 2015, but 2013-2015 is very veery hard, too many small sample sizes and unmet potentials.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Damn Bruins, they essentially got a lottery pick #25. Hate them, but have to give them props.

They made up for it the next year by passing on Barzal 3 times lol.

 

[Frk It]

Larkin, after a bad year, rebounded with a good year. But he also had every opportunity because virtually nobody played in front of him.

I'd go like so, as of right now.

1. Draisaitl
2. Pastrnak
3. Ekblad
4. Nylander
5. Larkin
6. Point
7. Montour
8. Reinhart
9. Dvorak
10. Fabbri
11. Heinen
12. Bennett
13. Schmaltz
14. McCann
15. Arvidsson
16. Fleury
17. Fiala
18. Labanc
19. Virtanen
20. Perlini
21. Tuch
22. Kempe
23. DeAngelo
24. Honka
25. Donato

But this can EASILY change. A year ago, Larkin looked anemic. Now he's talked about like the franchise.
For one, I expect a lot of defenseman to rise in the next 2-3 seasons.
Secondly, there are a lot of young guys who played 15-16 minutes. If their coach gives them 19-20 minutes, you could see some of these really step up

You forgot Ehlers.

 

[Pavels Dog]

After Drai and Pasta it comes down to preferences.
I like two-way centers that also score equally or more than wingers, so I rate Larkin and Point ahead of Nylander and Ehlers. Ekblad rounds out the top 5.

 

[Redder Winger]

You forgot Ehlers.

Weird. Must have deleted him. I had him after Larkin though