Prospect Info: 2014 Draft Discussion II (June 27-28 in Philadelphia)

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Jul 30, 2005
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I mean, what is location, really
He had 3.3P/60 which put him at 16th best. Not that is crazy or anything but he has a great shot and is a great skater. Like the poster above states there are a ton of factors/reasons that are unknown.

Source:
http://www.extraskater.com/chl/players?age=17&sort=points_all_per60
Looks like McCann did most of his damage on the PP, as well. We can infer this by his fairly brutal ES P/60 numbers, I think. But, really, that is pretty much what we'd expect to see if a promising prospect got buried on the 3rd line.

It's interesting to note that McCann's overall P/60 is better than lots of prospects, including some promising older guys like Reway, Poirier, Hudon, Lazar, and so on. It's also the same P/60 as Michael Dal Colle and .1 better than Nick Ritchie. Also behind McCann: Barbashev, Goldobin, and Brayden Point, also known for their offensive games.

(Note: Dal Colle and Goldobin were both also worse at ES P/60, although the shortfall is made up for by the sheer volume of ES minutes and no doubt some superior PP ability.)

P/60 is by no means a perfect measure, but it shows me that McCann can get it done when he's allowed to. and SSM wasn't some great team where McCann rode a star player's coattails, either. He was a key guy on their first unit.
 
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Tatar Shots

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When I read about McCann I see Jarret Stoll. So you tell me, would you draft Stoll at 15?

Watch, don't read. When people read about Mantha prior to last years draft they thought of a lazier Franzen. When I watch Jared McCann I see a two-way forward who is a fantastic skater with an excellent shot. I would say McCann's ceiling is a Bergeron type 2C, likely won't be nearly as good as Bergeron defensively though, but could match his offense. Does that sound better than Jarret Stoll?

Edit:
Looks like McCann did most of his damage on the PP

That is from his fantastic slapshot, sets up by the right dot and lets it go.
 

newfy

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When I read about McCann I see Jarret Stoll. So you tell me, would you draft Stoll at 15?

I sure would. Stoll had almost 70 points one year, is always right around 20 goals as well and on a contender that has won twice in three years he is a third line anchor.

I think Mccann sounds similar to Sheahan except he seems to have more offense to me. Everyone who just watches stats thought Sheahan was a bust three years ago and now he looks like hell be a very good NHLer for a while. Mccanns numbers are pretty good if you consider his ice time that has been mentinoed in here already.

He sounds like a guy who once he gets into a top role he'll take off. I woulndt absolutely love the pick but I wont be disappointed if hes there at 15
 

silkyjohnson50

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When I read about McCann I see Jarret Stoll. So you tell me, would you draft Stoll at 15?

When you look at the #15's selected between 2000-2010 (way too early to determine those drafted since), you almost want to say yes, give me Stoll.

Ottawa hit the jackpot with Karlsson and Radulov is obviously a real good player (although not benefiting his drafting team much), but other than those 2 you have a bunch of nobodies.

But with Detroit's developing system, I'd rather take a chance on a high ceiling player and hope that we could allow him to reach that ceiling with a little bit of patience.
 
Jul 30, 2005
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I mean, what is location, really
When you look at the #15's selected between 2000-2010 (way too early to determine those drafted since), you almost want to say yes, give me Stoll.

Ottawa hit the jackpot with Karlsson and Radulov is obviously a real good player (although not benefiting his drafting team much), but other than those 2 you have a bunch of nobodies.

But with Detroit's developing system, I'd rather take a chance on a high ceiling player and hope that we could allow him to reach that ceiling with a little bit of patience.
I think McCann is a high ceiling player. Everybody certainly believed that at the beginning of this year. Unless you think McCann has changed, I don't see why the judgment changes so radically.

People seem to value numbers when determining upside, so how about this one: McCann was 70th in P/60 across all 3 CHL leagues and all age brackets. Considering there are 60 teams in all, that's a very impressive number—tied with Ho-Sang and Dal Colle.

If you believe that he played less minutes than he should have (and this is a highly reasonable conclusion, IMO), then McCann likely would have had a bunch more points with even average icetime. Because people seem to associate points with offensive contribution, with normal icetime he would have appeared to be a much more offensive player.

But here's where it gets interesting: if McCann scored more points, he probably wouldn't be around for the Wings to draft. Given his overall offensive contribution, it's not implausible that McCann has untapped offensive upside. He could actually be steal material, especially for teams who haven't done their homework and just think he's a plug for their 3rd line.

Now, sure, I'm using hypotheticals, but they're reasonable ones. McCann really should have had more icetime, and McCann really probably would have had more points because of it. and god knows people really do like to judge offensive ability based on point totals.

edit:

and if anybody cares, McCann has the (estimated) 18th worst quality of teammates of draft eligible OHL forwards at ES. The only major prospect with worse linemates was Brendan Lemieux, whose number was just .1 lower.

But correspondingly, McCann has a low quality of competition as well (18th amongst draft eligible OHL forwards at ES). However, it looks like a number of prospects do: particularly the same guys whose offensive stats tend to resemble McCann's, such as Dal Colle and Ritchie.

Amongst all draft-eligible CHL forwards, McCann had the 40th worst teammates and the 32nd worst competition.

Note that both stats were calculated through time on ice. So what we can say, essentially, is McCann played with role players and didn't spend a ton of time facing big-minute defensemen this is pretty consistent with the idea of McCann playing 3rd line at ES. This doesn't count the power play, where he no doubt faced shutdown pairings and forwards and played with his team's better offensive players.
 
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Brandel*

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Mckenzie on TSN the other day was saying how McCann was puzzling a lot of scouts. He was drafted 4th overall into the OHL as a pure offensive player (just look at those Midget #s) and he said when scouts went to watch him they'd see that he has high end offensive tools and ability so they don't understand why his numbers continue to be as low as they are. Said it was very difficult for them to get a read on him, looks like he has the tools but is 30-40 pts short of what would be expected over a draft eligible season.
 
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GBFP

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McCann seems to hold back/play too safe in that he wants to be the two way center rather than just going offensive juggernaut. It's like he's too mature for his own good.
 

InjuredChoker

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there is big flaw in that guru:

it's estimated toi. not calculated, estimated. and if i'm not mistaken, they are based a lot on player and team scoring. so playing on a low scoring team and not scoring at high rate with lower ice, leads to underestimation of time on ice.
 

InjuredChoker

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Positional need has jack crap to do with BPA.

BPA means you take the highest rated player on your board regardless of position.

It means you take talent over positional need.

So you don't take Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan because you need a center

talent is more important consideration that positional need but it's absolutely part of it.

no one said it should be the only thing that matters.

your example isn't good one as michael jordan's talent is way higher. it trumps positional need.

if you draft all D or players who are less than 5'11 (or whatever) you're not going to build a good team. BPA is relative. BPA for some team is not the same as it is for others. LA would probably take doughty over stamkos at in 2008 re-draft (if they had #1 pick). they don't win those cups without him and won't get player like him unless they draft him. and tampa takes stamkos in same position.

many teams would be (are) in bad shape if they had totally ignored positional needs. you are trying to build a team, not a group of best individual picks.. paraphrasing.

how do you quantify who is the most talented at particular pick? that may not be the case 5 years down the road. that may not be the case if you draft winger on a team that is only strong on the wing and weak on the others. lot of players drafted 5+ years ago aren't viewed the same now re: talent level than they were back then.

some players are so hard to find that you have to draft them or you won't get them. we should know this by now, considering how the past few years have gone.

talent is obviously the most important factor, but making it the only factor, is a mistake.
 

mindfly

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Red Wings' new scouting director seeking 'passionate, hard-working players' at entry draft

"We just got to get good players. We want passionate, hard-working players who won't stop at anything to get into the National Hockey League. Passion and character are big to me."

http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2014/06/red_wings_new_scouting_directo.html


Sounds like there will be a lot of Nastasiuks'ish picks in this draft?
 

InjuredChoker

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Corey Pronman ‏@coreypronman 4 t
Ya, but not as of now. Mantha developed well. RT @SWonderballs: @coreypronman Is Perlini a better prospect than Mantha was last year?

Craig Button ‏@CraigJButton 3 t
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Playmaker 1.Reinhart 2.Nylander 3.Draisaitl 4.McCann 5. Schmaltz @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button ‏@CraigJButton 23 min
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Most Exciting 1.Nylander 2.Ehlers 3.Ho-Sang 4.Tkachev 5.Pastrnak @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 34 min
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Body Checker 1.Ekblad 2.Lemieux 3.Ritchie 4.Fleury 5. Tuch @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 1 t
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Poise 1.DeAngelo 2.Honka 3.Reinhart 4.Ekblad 5. Milano @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 19 t
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Goal Scorer 1.Dal Colle 2.Perlini 3.Fabbri 4.Ehlers 5.Ritchie @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 19 t
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Best Skater 1.Perlini 2.Nylander 3.Fleury 4.Sanheim 5. Kapanen @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 24. kesäkuuta
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Competitive 1.Bennett 2.Larkin 3.Point 4.Lemieux 5.Fiala @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 24. kesäkuuta
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Stickhandler 1.Milano 2.Nylander 3.Ehlers 4.Goldobin 5.Ho-Sang @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 24. kesäkuuta
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Fastest skater 1.Virtanen 2.Ehlers 3.Larkin 4.Kempe 5.Fabbri @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 23. kesäkuuta
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Leaders 1. Reinhart 2. Barbashev 3. Masin 4. Bleackley 5. Ekblad @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 23. kesäkuuta
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Hardest shot 1.Ritchie 2.Virtanen 3.Ekblad 4.Dal Colle 5.Perlini @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 23. kesäkuuta
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Smartest 1. Reinhart 2. Ekblad 3.Point 4.Draisaitl 5. Bennett @TSN_Sports #2014nhldraft
 
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Ennui

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we are going to take reid gardiner over goldobin.

Maybe it's just me, but those qualities that he listed sound more applicable to Scherbak than any of the North American draft prospects around where we'd be drafting; that kid will bring it every night, is a big-time character player, and has shown through his actions that he wants more than anything to play in the NHL.

For those of us who want a slick skilled Russian, this is one of the opportunities where Babs might be in the same frame of mind. It might also help that he plays a North American game, and isn't afraid to get his nose dirty.
 
Jul 30, 2005
17,660
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I mean, what is location, really
there is big flaw in that guru:

it's estimated toi. not calculated, estimated. and if i'm not mistaken, they are based a lot on player and team scoring. so playing on a low scoring team and not scoring at high rate with lower ice, leads to underestimation of time on ice.
Right. I knew that going in. But the odd thing is it's very intricately estimated—not in large blocks, but in quite small ones. I took that to hopefully mean that there's some real basis for their estimates.

One of the things somebody said is that teams always get real icetimes after games, so it could be that some team sources helped them put the information together.
 

Kyleftlx

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Gosh, I'd love to have Ekblad. The fact that he's a Red Wings fan and a Lidstrom fan makes me want him in Detroit that much more! Curse you Ken Holland for not letting this team be the Oilers all these years!
 

SirloinUB

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Aug 20, 2010
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Corey Pronman ‏@coreypronman 4 t
Ya, but not as of now. Mantha developed well. RT @SWonderballs: @coreypronman Is Perlini a better prospect than Mantha was last year?

Craig Button ‏@CraigJButton 3 t
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Playmaker 1.Reinhart 2.Nylander 3.Draisaitl 4.McCann 5. Schmaltz @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button ‏@CraigJButton 23 min
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Most Exciting 1.Nylander 2.Ehlers 3.Ho-Sang 4.Tkachev 5.Pastrnak @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 34 min
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Body Checker 1.Ekblad 2.Lemieux 3.Ritchie 4.Fleury 5. Tuch @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 1 t
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Poise 1.DeAngelo 2.Honka 3.Reinhart 4.Ekblad 5. Milano @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 19 t
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Goal Scorer 1.Dal Colle 2.Perlini 3.Fabbri 4.Ehlers 5.Ritchie @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 19 t
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Best Skater 1.Perlini 2.Nylander 3.Fleury 4.Sanheim 5. Kapanen @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 24. kesäkuuta
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Competitive 1.Bennett 2.Larkin 3.Point 4.Lemieux 5.Fiala @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 24. kesäkuuta
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Stickhandler 1.Milano 2.Nylander 3.Ehlers 4.Goldobin 5.Ho-Sang @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 24. kesäkuuta
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Fastest skater 1.Virtanen 2.Ehlers 3.Larkin 4.Kempe 5.Fabbri @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 23. kesäkuuta
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Leaders 1. Reinhart 2. Barbashev 3. Masin 4. Bleackley 5. Ekblad @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 23. kesäkuuta
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Hardest shot 1.Ritchie 2.Virtanen 3.Ekblad 4.Dal Colle 5.Perlini @TSN_Sports #2014NHLDraft

Craig Button @CraigJButton · 23. kesäkuuta
'Scout's Honour' best in 2014 @NHL Draft class. Smartest 1. Reinhart 2. Ekblad 3.Point 4.Draisaitl 5. Bennett @TSN_Sports #2014nhldraft

Its confusing to me that Virtanen can out score Perline, Ritchie, Dal Colle and Fabbri, with a harder shot yet still be considered the "weaker" goal scorer.
 

Rzombo4 prez

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May 17, 2012
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Its confusing to me that Virtanen can out score Perline, Ritchie, Dal Colle and Fabbri, with a harder shot yet still be considered the "weaker" goal scorer.

Why? Do you think having a hard shot is what makes someone a good goal scorer?
 

SirloinUB

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Why? Do you think having a hard shot is what makes someone a good goal scorer?

No. I think scoring 45 goals (which is more than 4 of the 5 guys he listed) as a 17 year old makes you a good goal scorer...






The kid can fly, has a very hard shot, will go to the dirty areas and has a great release with pinpoint accuracy; these are all things that make him good at scoring goals.
 

Boomhower

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Its confusing to me that Virtanen can out score Perline, Ritchie, Dal Colle and Fabbri, with a harder shot yet still be considered the "weaker" goal scorer.

It's confusing to me where you got your numbers? Are you talking entire junior careers? Because these are last years totals...

Fabbri - 58 Goals in 74
Ehlers - 60 goals in 79
Dal Colle- 47 goals in 79
Virtanen- 46 Goals in 77

I'm not saying he was slighted or wasn't... just wondering what stats you are going by?
I'd be happy with any of the above.
 
Jul 30, 2005
17,660
4,588
I mean, what is location, really
No. I think scoring 45 goals (which is more than 4 of the 5 guys he listed) as a 17 year old makes you a good goal scorer...






The kid can fly, has a very hard shot, will go to the dirty areas and has a great release with pinpoint accuracy; these are all things that make him good at scoring goals.
The worry is that the kid has absolutely no hockey sense. He's all tools. You can just destroy a CHL goalie with a rocket shot, but you're not fooling many NHL starters that way.
 
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