2014 - 2015 Coyotes Roster Part 7

[CC96]

Last thread was pretty much full.

Click to read more...

 

[IPreferPi]

I agree with the need to find and develop lower-round gems. But irrespective of scouting budget, the raw probabilities of drafting even NHL regulars outside the 1st simply pale in comparison to how often a top 5 draft pick is a hit.

To attempt to illustrate this point, top 5 draft picks from 2006-2010

2006:

E. Johnson
J. Staal
J Toews
N. Backstrom
P. Kessel

2007:
P. Kane
J. Van Reimsdyk
K. Turris
T. Hickey
K. Alzner

2008:

S. Stamkos
D. Doughty
Z. Bogosian
A. Pietrangelo
L. Schenn

2009:

J. Tavares
V. Hedman
M. Duchene
E. Kane
B. Schenn

2010:

T. Hall
T. Seguin
E. Gudbrandson
R. Johansen
N. Niedereitter

Pretty much everyone on this list is an NHL regular, and almost all of the forwards have been impact players. You have to pretty much go back to Nikolay Zherdev in 2003 to find a top 5 drafted forward who didn't last long in the league, but there was the KHL factor with him and even then he did have a 60 point season for the Blue Jackets.

 

[MIGs Dog]

To attempt to illustrate this point, top 5 draft picks from 2006-2010

2006:

E. Johnson
J. Staal
J Toews
N. Backstrom
P. Kessel

2007:
P. Kane
J. Van Reimsdyk
K. Turris
T. Hickey
K. Alzner

2008:

S. Stamkos
D. Doughty
Z. Bogosian
A. Pietrangelo
L. Schenn

2009:

J. Tavares
V. Hedman
M. Duchene
E. Kane
B. Schenn

2010:

T. Hall
T. Seguin
E. Gudbrandson
R. Johansen
N. Niedereitter

Pretty much everyone on this list is an NHL regular, and almost all of the forwards have been impact players. You have to pretty much go back to Nikolay Zherdev in 2003 to find a top 5 drafted forward who didn't last long in the league, but there was the KHL factor with him and even then he did have a 60 point season for the Blue Jackets.

you just had to include Turris.

 

[MIGs Dog]

To attempt to illustrate this point, top 5 draft picks from 2006-2010

2006:

E. Johnson
J. Staal
J Toews
N. Backstrom
P. Kessel

2007:
P. Kane
J. Van Reimsdyk
K. Turris
T. Hickey
K. Alzner

2008:

S. Stamkos
D. Doughty
Z. Bogosian
A. Pietrangelo
L. Schenn

2009:

J. Tavares
V. Hedman
M. Duchene
E. Kane
B. Schenn

2010:

T. Hall
T. Seguin
E. Gudbrandson
R. Johansen
N. Niedereitter

Pretty much everyone on this list is an NHL regular, and almost all of the forwards have been impact players. You have to pretty much go back to Nikolay Zherdev in 2003 to find a top 5 drafted forward who didn't last long in the league, but there was the KHL factor with him and even then he did have a 60 point season for the Blue Jackets.

My other point would be still doesn't guarantee a cup, or even the playoffs. Ain't that right Edmonton?

 

[IPreferPi]

My other point would be still doesn't guarantee a cup, or even the playoffs. Ain't that right Edmonton?

Edmonton has dysfunctional coaching and management and lacked a solid veteran core to surround their young talent. A total non sequitur.

 

[ck26]

Of those players, Tavares, Stamkos, Seguin, Duchene, Doughty, Pietrangelo, Toews, Johansson, Hall and P Kane are "franchise savior"-level players. Maybe Alzner, E Kane and Kessel go on that list too. And a couple (Hickey, L Schenn, Johnson) aren't any good.

10-13 of the 25. Even this is a coin flip.

 

[KG]

It annoys me that people bring up EDM without also bringing up successful rebuilds

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Edmonton has dysfunctional coaching and management and lacked a solid veteran core to surround their young talent. A total non sequitur.

Actually, it's a really good point, in that even top talent is not going to turn a franchise around if the coaching and management is suspect. For proof, look at that list of top-5 draft picks and count how many of them have won a Stanley Cup or, indeed, have advanced past the first round of the playoffs.

 

[indczn]

My other point would be still doesn't guarantee a cup, or even the playoffs. Ain't that right Edmonton?

Which cup contender doesn't have one of those guys? They have top 5 picks pretty much book-ending your choice of years.

 

[MIGs Dog]

Which cup contender doesn't have one of those guys?

The Coyotes

 

[IPreferPi]

Of those players, Tavares, Stamkos, Seguin, Duchene, Doughty, Pietrangelo, Toews, Johansson, Hall and P Kane are "franchise savior"-level players. Maybe Alzner, E Kane and Kessel go on that list too. And a couple (Hickey, L Schenn, Johnson) aren't any good.

10-13 of the 25. Even this is a coin flip.

You don't count Backstrom, JVR, and Hedman as star players or at least stars in the making? That bumps it up to 15-16 (60%)

I did also make the specific point of focusing on the forwards rather than the defensemen (as defensemen take longer to develop). Pretty much the only forward on that list who's still unproven is Nino, but he was mishandled by the Isles and he's looked decent on the Wild.

60% is a heck of a lot better than expecting to draft a star player outside the Top 10 much less drafting an NHL regular outside of Round 1.

 

[ck26]

You don't count Backstrom, JVR, and Hedman as star players or at least stars in the making? That bumps it up to 15-16 (60%)

I did also make the specific point of focusing on the forwards rather than the defensemen (as defensemen take longer to develop). Pretty much the only forward on that list who's still unproven is Nino, but he was mishandled by the Isles and he's looked decent on the Wild.

60% is a heck of a lot better than expecting to draft a star player outside the Top 10 much less drafting an NHL regular outside of Round 1.

They're all really good, but if we draft 3rd-5th this year and the guy grows into a JVR by 2016-2017, that'll be nice but nothing more. JVR would be our best scoring winger, but not a franchise-changer. The Tavares / Stamkos / Toews list is a list of franchise-changers.

Edit: mis-read your post ... those 3 belong on that second list, with Kessel and E Kane.

 

[MIGs Dog]

sure you can build through he draft, but you also need to spend the money to bring in additional talent.

The Hawks drafted Kane and Toews, but also brought in Hossa and Sharp.

Kings drafted Kopitar and Doughty, but acquired Carter, Williams and Richards.

The Yotes need to be willing to spend to acquire the talent needed. They gave it a go last year with Ribeiro, but it didn't work out...we all know why.

We didn't however want to bump up Vrbata to the salary level he was worth to retain him.

Until this team is ready to spend a little more it will be tough to build a consistent contender through high draft picks.

 

[Grimes]

Just read the Vermette article.

I don't think it really states anything. Of course Maloney is going to want to keep him. Why woudn't he. But there is still plenty of talk about uncertainty in the article. Maloney also wouldn't want to say he is open to trading Vermette because then it makes it sound like he would be easy to pry away. This is more a response to all the rumors right now and the position management is right now. All of this can change in a month or two.

 

[MIGs Dog]

Maloney also wouldn't want to say he is open to trading Vermette

No GM worth a nickel would ever say this about any player during a season.

 

[XX]

My other point would be still doesn't guarantee a cup, or even the playoffs. Ain't that right Edmonton?

Please stop using this organization as an example of anything beyond totally incompetent management. They're in purgatory with that many high picks for a reason. It's the TGO/Barnett show for them.

And you can complain about not spending enough all you want. Fact is, teams in our division (and this league) routinely churn out more homegrown talent than the Coyotes do. And they use this talent not only do flesh out rosters under budgets, but they also use it to acquire players in trade. The Kings alone have seven homegrown forwards on their roster and have traded guys like Wayne Simmonds and Brayden Schenn.

It's not as simple as cramming money into the GM machine. UFAs are the worst deals out there.

 

[IPreferPi]

Until this team is ready to spend a little more it will be tough to build a consistent contender through high draft picks.

You have to spend a little on secondary players to compliment a young core, but the fact of the matter is that that's is a far more sustainable and ultimately less expensive model to success than primarily relying on UFA signings to compete. The primary reason why the Kings were able to trade for (not sign, trade) Carter and Richards was because they were able to draft blue-chippers like Simmonds and Brayden Schenn and then flip em for pieces to compliments Doughty and Kopitar.

We need more payroll, obviously. But that's not mutually exclusive with obtaining potential stars w/ high draft picks.

 

[ibroce]

Please stop using this organization as an example of anything beyond totally incompetent management. They're in purgatory with that many high picks for a reason. It's the TGO/Barnett show for them.

And you can complain about not spending enough all you want. Fact is, teams in our division (and this league) routinely churn out more homegrown talent than the Coyotes do. And they use this talent not only do flesh out rosters under budgets, but they also use it to acquire players in trade. The Kings alone have seven homegrown forwards on their roster and have traded guys like Wayne Simmonds and Brayden Schenn.

It's not as simple as cramming money into the GM machine. UFAs are the worst deals out there.

Like 2003-2009, LA and us were pretty much identical in terms of performance. Only difference is that they were drafting well, and we were being run by...yeah.
but it's not like we can just magically have a few good drafts and be a contender immediately. It will probably be 5 years of drafting and developing before we have a big core of homegrown talent. Our top forward prospects just aren't ready yet, and previous firsts under Maloney were mostly Dmen, which have all made their way into the NHL. Our whole D core has been built through the draft except Michalek, but I consider him homegrown too. We will get there, and regardless of everyone's hard ons for saying Maloney and Tippett hate youth, (even as we are playing 4 VERY young, home drafted defensemen!) it's just not true. Salaries and tight financial constraints have dictated this season. They want to win. They have ****ing pride in what they do.
Complaining that we don't have an entire forward core built through the draft right now is worthless, because that takes years to build (years that were all wasted under TGO), and we mostly spent our years under Maloney building the back end, the exception being Boedker and a few busts. Then we had playoff success, and more recently, two misses. Both "miss" years, we have, on the surface, drafted extremely well, and we have heavily focused on skill offensive guys. And now we have a good handful of young offensive players who are a year or two away from being NHL impact players. And a few who will be eased in this year. BUT for now, budget dictates that the 1 way deals have to stay in the NHL.
Can you blame Maloney for trying to replicate what has worked for him? He's spent every dime he has. He tried to bring in a big time skill guy last year, and now we are stuck with that 2 million dollar a year reminder that UFAS are risky business.

 

[MIGs Dog]

You have to spend a little on secondary players to compliment a young core, but the fact of the matter is that that's is a far more sustainable and ultimately less expensive model to success than primarily relying on UFA signings to compete. The primary reason why the Kings were able to trade for (not sign, trade) Carter and Richards was because they were able to draft blue-chippers like Simmonds and Brayden Schenn and then flip em for pieces to compliments Doughty and Kopitar.

We need more payroll, obviously. But that's not mutually exclusive with obtaining potential stars w/ high draft picks.

Simmonds last season with the Kings he put up 30 pts in 80 games, and Schenn was in the AHL when he was traded, a top prospect no doubt, but not with the big club none-the-less. Kings also gave up a second round pick.

What's my point? Coyotes have that type of talent to trade.

The salary the Kings acquired with Richards is more than anyone is making with the Yotes, and that is the biggest reason Arizona can't and will not make a trade for a player of Richards caliber.

 

[ibroce]

I will also add in that Tippett doesn't hate young players at all. As evidenced by his comments on Rieder. He doesn't care if he's 21 or 31. If he is responsible and ready to work in a two way system, he will play. Add in the fact that he's been giving the most minutes the past 3 years to a guy who's been 20, 21 and 22. The average age of defensemen on the ice against Toronto? 24.
We simply haven't had young forwards who were ready to play in Tippett's system. Boedker is the only drafted forward who survived being abused by Gretzky. And after Turris, all of our firsts were pretty much D. And now our D core is set for 10 years, with the most dynamic 1-2 punch of offensive D in the league.
The forwards are getting there. Just be a little patient. We don't have the group that everyone is clamoring for right now.

 

[ibroce]

Simmonds last season with the Kings he put up 30 pts in 80 games, and Schenn was in the AHL when he was traded, a top prospect no doubt, but not with the big club none-the-less. Kings also gave up a second round pick.

What's my point? Coyotes have that type of talent to trade.

The salary the Kings acquired with Richards is more than anyone is making with the Yotes, and that is the biggest reason Arizona can't and will not make a trade for a player of Richards caliber.

The Yotes have that talent to trade. But not enough to trade for pieces and still have a core of homegrown talent. Kings traded those pieces but still had Kipodor and Doty. Among many, many others.

 

[ibroce]

Players also historically develop better in winning cultures. If the team is going to be bad this year, keep our young guys the **** away from it. Look at Pearson and Toffoli. They would be a fraction of where they are now if they had been injected into, say, Buffalos roster.

 

[KG]

yeah!!!!!!!! let's keep doing what we've been doing the last two years where we won back to back Stanley cups!!!!!!!!!!


oh wait we missed the playoffs twice

 

[Dirty Old Man]

On a roster of 23 skaters (discounting goalies), how many homegrown talent players would you consider 'a lot'? Right now we have 12 who've never played 1 game with another franchise:

Doan
Yandle
Hanzal
Boedker
Ekman-Larsson
Schlemko
Stone
Summers
Murphy
Gormley
Hodgman
Rieder

(plus, of the D, only Michalek has ever played a game for another team, and he's even at 75% Coyote)

 

[ibroce]

I'd rather support a team that is competitive every year than one who loses on purpose. McDavid on Buffalo is still not a playoff team for 3 more years.
A handful guys drafted 12th overall surrounded by management who preach winning every year and a stable group of veteran leadership is a playoff team. Be competetive. Create an expectation to compete for the playoffs EVERY YEAR, and develop prospects correctly.
If one franchise player was enough to win a cup alone, the Pens would have won every cup since 06


And yeah. I would love to have McDavid. But it's not reasonably going to happen. So I want the team to win as many fames as possible and I want the young guys who are eased in to recognize that winning is the only thing that matters.