Prospect Info: 2014-15 Colorado Avalanche Junior Prospects Thread (CHL & Europe)

[Bender]

HOW is this a "Newport Nightmare"? That's a pretty big judgment to take.

What if the kid signs an ATO and gets injured before the season is over? Will the Avs still sign him to an ELC? Most likely not. An ELC can still set someone up, financially, for life in the event of a career-ending injury.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with wanting an ELC first, and then an ATO. That IS the business side, and one I support 100% for the player.

Absolutely agreed! Not sure how anyone can see it any other way.

It seems reasonable to me to want an ELC before reporting to an AHL team. He's played well enough to earn one and I can't imagine Avs feel he has to earn one on a ATO for a couple of weeks. If that is the case, their director of player development has done a terrible job. The guy has played 135 games in the WHL since he was drafted.

Agreed again! I think people are getting caught up in a 'nothing to see here' type of situation. This will get resolved...it has to. It's even surprising that there are any hiccups at all, considering the overall state of the Avs prospects base.

Any possible snags I blame 100% on management. You have no problem giving Guenin and Cliche multi-year, one-way NHL contracts after proving for short stretches they can be "passable" fringe NHL players but now you have a young 4th round pick that has in all-likelihood shown to have potential beyond that of an average 4th liner and you're going to make a fuss? Get him signed!

Between the Avs and Newport right now, it seems like they are two young teenage boys giving each other light punches on the arm. Neither wants to be the last one to have received a shot.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Isn't the ATO just so we don't burn a year on Geertsen's contract? In that sense I fully support it, a handful of games from Mason isn't worth a whole year of his ELC to the Avs. If he wants the ELC, I'd just shut him down for the rest of the year. If he wants to keep playing some, assure him the ELC and put him on the ATO.

It's that simple to me. I agree he has the right to push for the ELC, but I think he needs to realize that the Avs can't lose a year of that ELC just so he can have contract/financial stability.

 

[R S]

Have to agree with several above, just as I posted on Twitter last night, I fully respect where Geertsen is coming from. He just wants the security of a full contract before risking potential injury with the Monsters. He's on the starting line of his pro career and a severe injury would be flushing bucket loads of cash down the toilet. Nothing wrong with wanting something as a backup.

Especially when it's earned.

People can say "yeah, well lots of other players take PTO's without an ELC". Yeah, well those those players haven't earned a full ELC like Geertsen has. He has gone ahead and not just turned out to be a decent value pick relative to his draft position, he's greatly elevated his stock.

Avs, give the kid what he wants. Get him an ELC, let it slide to next year, and sign him to a PTO and get him in some AHL games already.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Isn't the ATO just so we don't burn a year on Geertsen's contract? In that sense I fully support it, a handful of games from Mason isn't worth a whole year of his ELC to the Avs. If he wants the ELC, I'd just shut him down for the rest of the year. If he wants to keep playing some, assure him the ELC and put him on the ATO.

It's that simple to me. I agree he has the right to push for the ELC, but I think he needs to realize that the Avs can't lose a year of that ELC just so he can have contract/financial stability.

That's likely not the issue. The burning a year off is the NCAA guys who want NHL time. Any ELC Geertsen signs is for next year, that's not a problem. I have no problems that he wants the contract, hell I wanted him signed a long time ago. I'm just expressing unease until it's done.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Isn't the ATO just so we don't burn a year on Geertsen's contract? In that sense I fully support it, a handful of games from Mason isn't worth a whole year of his ELC to the Avs. If he wants the ELC, I'd just shut him down for the rest of the year. If he wants to keep playing some, assure him the ELC and put him on the ATO.

It's that simple to me. I agree he has the right to push for the ELC, but I think he needs to realize that the Avs can't lose a year of that ELC just so he can have contract/financial stability.

I think they are willing to do the ATO for this year, but they want the ELC already signed and kicking in for for next season before agreeing to a ATO for this year.

 

[S E P H]

As he should, he's had a relatively impressive year and improved on his draft stock. Hopefully it won't be too big a hold up, if the Avs aren't pinching pennies anymore like it seems.

Yes, but he still has some faults. His skating is still below average at best. One good offensive year for shutdown defenseman also shouldn't rise his money to a 2nd round pick.

I think a lot of his points this year are junior points like Siemens got with Elliott. Trust me, I am not trying to downplay his career year because he has definitely improved in all regards IMO. He also screams like a player who is not a late bloomer, but like wine, he gets better with age. There is a chance he could even develop into Hjalmarsson type of player due to his willpower attitude and taking the points from Adam Foote to heart during TC.

But I hope he's not going over his head for his extremes when it comes to money. I have no problem paying him the same ELC as a middle to later 3rd round, but if he wants 2nd round money (including bonuses), that is something I cannot agree with.


@Newport discussion: I totally understand both points of view. First, Geertsen wants a contract to protect himself, I am very sure if certain posters or tweeters thinking he is a money *****, were in the position he was, they would do the same thing (so there are hypocrites). But I also understand the fan's point of view, of "Newport Again?" "Seriously?!". Avs have had the most trouble with Newport dealing with O'Reilly's situation and Tyson Barrie's delaying processes. Geertsen himself is delaying the process of signing a ATO with Lake Erie until his contract is done. Avs fans who actually have a little bit of decent knowledge concerning prospects and contracts, know how much crap the Avs organization has had to deal with when arranging no contracts with Newport.

 

[Bender]

Yes, but he still has some faults. His skating is still below average at best. One good offensive year for shutdown defenseman also shouldn't rise his money to a 2nd round pick.

I think a lot of his points this year are junior points like Siemens got with Elliott. Trust me, I am not trying to downplay his career year because he has definitely improved in all regards IMO. He also screams like a player who is not a late bloomer, but like wine, he gets better with age. There is a chance he could even develop into Hjalmarsson type of player due to his willpower attitude and taking the points from Adam Foote to heart during TC.

But I hope he's not going over his head for his extremes when it comes to money. I have no problem paying him the same ELC as a middle to later 3rd round, but if he wants 2nd round money (including bonuses), that is something I cannot agree with.


@Newport discussion: I totally understand both points of view. First, Geertsen wants a contract to protect himself, I am very sure if certain posters or tweeters thinking he is a money *****, were in the position he was, they would do the same thing (so there are hypocrites). But I also understand the fan's point of view, of "Newport Again?" "Seriously?!". Avs have had the most trouble with Newport dealing with O'Reilly's situation and Tyson Barrie's delaying processes. Geertsen himself is delaying the process of signing a ATO with Lake Erie until his contract is done. Avs fans who actually have a little bit of decent knowledge concerning prospects and contracts, know how much crap the Avs organization has had to deal with when arranging no contracts with Newport.

Lol...why not? What's the difference? 100k- 200K? And that's if and when he reaches the NHL which is, in my estimation, not before 2017-18 at the earliest. Meanwhile, the Avs are giving journeymen NHLers like Guenin and Cliche guaranteed 1-way deals when they probably would have agreed to 2-way deals for the minimum.

 

[S E P H]

Lol...why not? What's the difference? 100k- 200K? And that's if and when he reaches the NHL which is, in my estimation, not before 2017-18 at the earliest. Meanwhile, the Avs are giving journeymen NHLers like Guenin and Cliche guaranteed 1-way deals when they probably would have agreed to 2-way deals for the minimum.

The difference is big enough that Geertsen has not signed yet. So, it clearly matters to him...

 

[Avs_19]

We don't know what the hold up is but if they're arguing over the draft position and how the ELC should be structured based on that, then I think this is an Avs issue rather a Newport issue. To me that makes it seem like the Avs are being difficult for no apparent reason. You have a good prospect who has put the work in and really improved his game, it won't kill you to give him a bit more than the typical 4th rounder.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Not sure if I'd say "hold up" yet. Contracts don't happen in an instant. We'll have a better idea in a few days. It scares me because of what Newport could ask for. The money should be negligible especially since AHL salary is 10% of NHL salary.

 

[Gabe the Babe]

Yes, but he still has some faults. His skating is still below average at best. One good offensive year for shutdown defenseman also shouldn't rise his money to a 2nd round pick.

I think a lot of his points this year are junior points like Siemens got with Elliott. Trust me, I am not trying to downplay his career year because he has definitely improved in all regards IMO. He also screams like a player who is not a late bloomer, but like wine, he gets better with age. There is a chance he could even develop into Hjalmarsson type of player due to his willpower attitude and taking the points from Adam Foote to heart during TC.

But I hope he's not going over his head for his extremes when it comes to money. I have no problem paying him the same ELC as a middle to later 3rd round, but if he wants 2nd round money (including bonuses), that is something I cannot agree with.


@Newport discussion: I totally understand both points of view. First, Geertsen wants a contract to protect himself, I am very sure if certain posters or tweeters thinking he is a money *****, were in the position he was, they would do the same thing (so there are hypocrites). But I also understand the fan's point of view, of "Newport Again?" "Seriously?!". Avs have had the most trouble with Newport dealing with O'Reilly's situation and Tyson Barrie's delaying processes. Geertsen himself is delaying the process of signing a ATO with Lake Erie until his contract is done. Avs fans who actually have a little bit of decent knowledge concerning prospects and contracts, know how much crap the Avs organization has had to deal with when arranging no contracts with Newport.

Is his skating actually still below average? That's been a big question of mine.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Yes, but he still has some faults. His skating is still below average at best. One good offensive year for shutdown defenseman also shouldn't rise his money to a 2nd round pick.

I think a lot of his points this year are junior points like Siemens got with Elliott. Trust me, I am not trying to downplay his career year because he has definitely improved in all regards IMO. He also screams like a player who is not a late bloomer, but like wine, he gets better with age. There is a chance he could even develop into Hjalmarsson type of player due to his willpower attitude and taking the points from Adam Foote to heart during TC.

But I hope he's not going over his head for his extremes when it comes to money. I have no problem paying him the same ELC as a middle to later 3rd round, but if he wants 2nd round money (including bonuses), that is something I cannot agree with.


@Newport discussion: I totally understand both points of view. First, Geertsen wants a contract to protect himself, I am very sure if certain posters or tweeters thinking he is a money *****, were in the position he was, they would do the same thing (so there are hypocrites). But I also understand the fan's point of view, of "Newport Again?" "Seriously?!". Avs have had the most trouble with Newport dealing with O'Reilly's situation and Tyson Barrie's delaying processes. Geertsen himself is delaying the process of signing a ATO with Lake Erie until his contract is done. Avs fans who actually have a little bit of decent knowledge concerning prospects and contracts, know how much crap the Avs organization has had to deal with when arranging no contracts with Newport.

It shouldn't be about how many good years someone has. It's about the skills they develop and their future expectations. It's not like those new skills are just going to go away, as long as the player has a good work ethic. Take his shot and skating for example. I highly doubt he jumped up to double digit goals with luck. And his skating might not be a strength, but it was a liability before. And his expectations have sky rocketed since the draft. He went from a good sized, physical project to a guy who has serious potential.

How is Geersten similar to Siemens playing with Elliott? I only caught one game, but he didn't seem to be paired with someone like Elliott. And looking at their team stats, Geertsen leads all Dmen by quite a bit. Nobody is close to Elliott's production. Didn't Siemens and Elliott play on better and more productive teams as well? I don't see how Geertsen is in a similar situation at all.

 

[S E P H]

Geertsen is a very smooth skater in his style of skating, but his top end speed is like Erik Johnson without his multiple offseasons of power skating. Or picture JS Giguere's lateral mobility in his final season in terms of speed.

I think Geertsen is very powerful with west to east strides, but his straight line speed is definitely below-average at best, worst than Ryan O'Byrne IMO. Thankfully Geertsen has the ability to compensate for this weakness in terms of hockey IQ and where to be on the ice, except on the PP, which certain forwards take advantage of. Though he is a great passer so when one of the opponent forwards is overly aggressive, he makes space for the recipient of the pass.

One area I love that Geertsen has improved in, is his shot. It's not at Morris's level, but it has that level of heaviness. It definitely has the potential to be around that leve of lethal-ness.

 

[bohlmeister]

I have no idea what you are talking about with his strides. If his strides were east to west he would do the splits and pull his groin. Do you mean his first few strides are good? Or his edgework? Like he can pivot and crossover really well but doesn't have top speed?

 

[Hordichuk_24]

Have to agree with several above, just as I posted on Twitter last night, I fully respect where Geertsen is coming from. He just wants the security of a full contract before risking potential injury with the Monsters. He's on the starting line of his pro career and a severe injury would be flushing bucket loads of cash down the toilet. Nothing wrong with wanting something as a backup.

Especially when it's earned.

People can say "yeah, well lots of other players take PTO's without an ELC". Yeah, well those those players haven't earned a full ELC like Geertsen has. He has gone ahead and not just turned out to be a decent value pick relative to his draft position, he's greatly elevated his stock.

Avs, give the kid what he wants. Get him an ELC, let it slide to next year, and sign him to a PTO and get him in some AHL games already.

To touch on this a bit further Geertsen's camp was arguing that if he wasn't on such a bad team and had more exposure in the playoffs they believe he wouldn't have slipped to the 4th round. Hence the dispute about money and bonuses. And they probably have a point. On the other side of the coin he played a ton because he was on a bad team. And I'm sure that improved his overall game a ton.

I have no issue with what he and his agent are demanding. It isn't unreasonable at all.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Couldn't just about half of the kids in the league make that argument that if they were on a better team they would have better stats and get drafted higher blah blah? Weren't you saying some in the Avs org weren't sure about him and now the agent wants to use leverage? I'm sure they are not asking a lot but we have history with Newport that goes deep, the Avs aren't going to get worked over by them even if it's insignificant. That's my concern.

 

[FoppaForsberg*]

I have no idea what you are talking about with his strides. If his strides were east to west he would do the splits and pull his groin. Do you mean his first few strides are good? Or his edgework? Like he can pivot and crossover really well but doesn't have top speed?

I'm assuming he means his edge work, pivots, side steps, etc.

 

[Hordichuk_24]

Couldn't just about half of the kids in the league make that argument that if they were on a better team they would have better stats and get drafted higher blah blah?

Definitely. Don't shoot the messenger I'm just passing along extra info I received yesterday. That was some of the leverage or reasoning they were using to justify Geersten earning more money on his ELC.

Weren't you saying some in the Avs org weren't sure about him and now the agent wants to use leverage?

There was some internal debate. But the key people as far as decision making were on board with his progression. I find it very difficult to understand why anybody would argue or question signing him after his current season. He improved quite drastically. Even at the end of last season I didn't expect this much improvement. He far exceeded my expectations and I have watched him pretty consistently since he entered the league. Very consistently since Vancouver acquired him.

Lastly I wouldn't worry about the contract not getting done. I'm sure it'll get finalized.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I appreciate the info and thanks for stopping by. As I said there is a long history between the Avs and Newport so things that seem simple and will get accomplished are not something I take for granted with those parties involved. But if there is no reason to worry I will try not to.

 

[Hordichuk_24]

I appreciate the info and thanks for stopping by. As I said there is a long history between the Avs and Newport so things that seem simple and will get accomplished are not something I take for granted with those parties involved. But if there is no reason to worry I will try not to.

I must admit I am not familiar with the Newport issues at all. But I can vouch that Geertsen wants the deal to get done and I was told by a person close to the situation that they are confident it will be finalized sooner rather than later. They expressed zero concern about the possibility of it not happening. So I wouldn't worry about it not getting done.

 

[tigervixxxen]

The long saga that has been Ryan O'Reilly that has gone on for three years now, I'm sure you are familiar with that or no? Maybe it's just isolated to that one very special case but anything Newport freaks the heck out of Avs fans because they can devolve quickly. I'm glad to hear there is interest from both sides in getting it done, then those situations tend to work out. Thanks again.

 

[Hordichuk_24]

The long saga that has been Ryan O'Reilly that has gone on for three years now, I'm sure you are familiar with that or no? Maybe it's just isolated to that one very special case but anything Newport freaks the heck out of Avs fans because they can devolve quickly. I'm glad to hear there is interest from both sides in getting it done, then those situations tend to work out. Thanks again.

Understood. O'Reilly should have been obvious. I completely overlooked that. I just wondered if it went even deeper than that. That explains all the concern.

Anyway not a problem at all. If you have any particular questions about Geertsen or his game/progression feel free to ask. The only league I avidly follow is the WHL. So that is certainly my comfort zone.

 

[avsfan09]

Understood. O'Reilly should have been obvious. I completely overlooked that. I just wondered if it went even deeper than that. That explains all the concern.

Anyway not a problem at all. If you have any particular questions about Geertsen or his game/progression feel free to ask. The only league I avidly follow is the WHL. So that is certainly my comfort zone.

I'd love a scouting report and your opinion on his NHL upside. Its always nice to hear unbiased opinions on our players. (I assume your unbiased)

 

[R S]

FTR:

I don't share the same skating concerns with Geertsen as SEPH does. I think for a 19 year old kid who is 6'4 and over 200 pounds, he skates very well. Is his skating speed NHL-ready? Not at all. But will it get to that level in a year or two? Definitely, I think so.

 

[Hordichuk_24]

I'd love a scouting report and your opinion on his NHL upside. Its always nice to hear unbiased opinions on our players. (I assume your unbiased)

I suppose the latter could be debated.

I consider Geertsen a solid stay at home defensive defenseman. Defense has always been his strong suit. I think some people are seeing the point increase and starting to jump to conclusions. Now I'm not saying it is meaningless but I am also not convinced that will translate to the pro level. I think what it did show was a certain level of progression that a lot of players don't reach. When Geertsen first got a genuine opportunity to play on the PP I wasn't overly thrilled about it. You would have to be able to relate to previous situations to understand my gripe. Not only did Geertsen look lost most times manning the PP but his shot had absolutely no threat. Zero. Why? Well for starters the lowest he could keep the puck most of the time was shoulder height. Most of his teammates refused to stand in front of the net because the puck would zip by their heads. The velocity was always there but the control was non-existent.

Long story short, after the first coaching change Geertsen really worked on his shot and due to Vancouver struggling and not having a lot of capable offensive minded defensemen Geertsen started to have success. He managed to keep his shot much lower and started to gain confidence. The last thing I said, confidence, that was probably the biggest change in his game. He would carry the puck from behind the net and not question his decision. He would take the extra time and make a better first pass. Last season that didn't happen often at all. He would force a play and usually that ended up bad for the team. Let me clarify that wasn't a problem exclusive to Geersten. Vancouver has had years of awful defense. Geertsen was probably their most reliable defenseman during this period. But those were mistakes he made more frequently.

If you asked me last summer what I expected from Geersten at his ceiling I would say maybe a #5 or #6 defenseman. Depending on how he progressed in the AHL. Now? I think projecting him to be a middle pairing defenseman is a pretty good bet. So #3 or #4. I think #4 is more likely but you never know.

One more thing in regard to his skating. I am not at all concerned with his skating. Not one bit. If you watched him play at 16 you'd realized his skating is already that much better. And to be clear I never thought he was a bad skater for his size. Quite the contrary. For his size he always moved fairly well. People often confuse longer strides for slow skating. Now that being said can there be improvements in his skating? Of course. And they will come. I have no doubt about that. He has the desire and work ethic to get it done. But his skating isn't a legitimate concern at least not in my eyes. His footwork is pretty good and he is usually in good position. The latter is ultimately the most important. Sometimes he makes a bad decision pinching (usually he is trying to step up and make a big hit) and sometimes that creates an odd man rush the other way. But those are mistakes I am fine with. He is trying to make a physical play and most of the time I'll happily that that gamble. It's not as though he's doing that at a crucial time of the game. Timing is extremely important in that regard.

I don't know how much (if any) stock you or any fans put into former NHL coaches opinions but I can tell you Claude Noel absolutely adored Geersten. He constantly raved about him. He only did that for two players. Geersten and Benson. It isn't a coincidence those are the two players you can tell night in and night out cared and gave it their all.