2013-14 Qualitative +/- Ratings

[tarheelhockey]

Here's where we are as of the most recent update. Also updated in post #2.

Forwards | Plus | Minus | Total | Margin Of Error
Drayson Bowman | 5 | 2 | +3 | -
Patrick Dwyer | 4 | 2 | +2 | -
Radek Dvorak | 10 | 3 | +7 | -
Nathan Gerbe | 6 | - | +6 | -
Elias Lindholm | 2 | 4 | -2 | -1
Manny Malhotra | 7 | 3 | +4 | -
Riley Nash | 5 | 2 | +3 | -
Tuomo Ruutu | 6 | 2 | +4 | -
Alex Semin | 6 | 2 | +4 | -
Jeff Skinner | 7 | 4 | +3 | -
Eric Staal | 11 | 9 | +2 | -
Jordan Staal | 6 | 1 | +5 | -
Brett Sutter | - | 2 | -2 | -
Jiri Tlusty | 7 | 4 | +3 | -

Defensemen | Plus | Minus | Total | Margin of Error
Brett Bellemore | 1 | 3 | -2 | -
Justin Faulk | 8 | 5 | +3 | -
Tim Gleason | - | 2 | -2 | -
Ron Hainsey | 5 | 2 | +3 | -
Jay Harrison | 4 | 3 | +1 | -
Mike Komisarek | - | 1 | -1 | -
Ryan Murphy | 5 | 6 | -1 | -
Andrej Sekera | 6 | 7 | -1 | -

Goaltender Errors

Player | Errors
Anton Khudobin | 1
Justin Peters | 3
Cam Ward | -

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 29 @ Nashville Predators
12/5/2013
5-2 Win



ES GOALS FOR

1st 0:23 Faulk (unassisted)
+1 Eric Staal - I'm not sure how this ended up being logged as unassisted, since it sure looked like Eric was the last one to touch it before Faulk. In any case, he was in rare form bullying the Preds on the forecheck.
+1 Faulk - Weird little knuckler, but a good shot to take against a rookie goalie only seconds into a game.

2nd 6:11 Skinner (Murphy, Ruutu)
+1 Skinner - He's really been showcasing his wrister during this hot streak.
+1 Murphy - Navigated traffic getting out of his own zone, and made a nice feathery pass to spring Skinner.
+1 Ruutu - A small role behind the action, but he made a deceptively risky play in getting the puck forward and out of his zone.

2nd 11:51 Nash (Dwyer, Hainsey)
+1 Hainsey - Things worked out perfectly for him on this play -- stepped out of the penalty box and directly into the path of a Preds pass.
+1 Dwyer - Nice little semi-saucer pass across the slot.
+1 Nash - Even he looked a little surprised at scoring a pretty goal...

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 0:50 Fisher (Bartley, Jones)
-1 Skinner - More of his defensive-zone antics, this time getting pickpocketed and having no clue what to do in recovery.
-1 Ruutu - In a tough position due to Skinner's abrupt turnover, but he still recovered poorly and left Bartley alone at the point.
-1 Faulk - Was doing fine until he failed to put any kind of stick or body on Fisher.

2nd 2:41 Stalberg (Spaling)
-1 Harrison - I have half a mind to just give Peters an error on this goofy sequence, but at the end of the day Harrison gifted the Preds a 2-on-1 and even managed to take himself out of the play during recovery.

Totals
+1 Dwyer
+1 Hainsey
+1 Murphy
+1 Nash
+1 Eric Staal
-1 Harrison

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 30 vs San Jose Sharks
12/6/2013
5-3 Win



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 11:36 Harrison (Boychuk, Nash)
+1 Nash - Clean faceoff win to the point, plus a role in screening the goalie.
+1 Boychuk - Have to think he was the primary reason this ended up in the net, just from being right on top of the goalie while the shot was coming through.
+1 Tlusty - Looks like he might have actually jumped over the puck as it passed by? In any case, he was yet another part of that 3-man screen.
+1 Harrison - Nice job dragging the puck a little before releasing. Allowed for the lanes and timing to work properly and avoid a blocked shot.

3rd 4:54 Nash (Harrison, Lindholm)
+1 Lindholm - Nice use of physicality to generate a scoring chance. Hope we see a lot more of that from him.
+1 Tlusty - Once again, contesting loose pucks, tying up defenders, creating traffic in front of the net. All of the so-called little things that have made him successful in the past.
+1 Harrison - Another case of hesitating with the puck, just long enough to open a lane for an easily deflected shot.
+1 Nash - Good hands in front.

3rd 6:42 Jordan Staal (Gerbe, Lindholm)
+1 Lindholm - Heads-up play to salvage a flubbed shot, preventing a turnover.
+1 Gerbe - Maybe not the greatest pass you'll ever see, but he put it where it needed to be.
+1 Jordan Staal - Simply outmuscled the defense to the net.

3rd 14:00 Lindholm (Sekera, Jordan Staal)
+1 Lindholm - Rewarding to see him take such abuse in front, then hang in there and get the key deflection that wins the game. Hopefully he takes that lesson to heart.
+1 Sekera - Did a nice job of moving the puck on his own, waiting for his teammates to set up. You can tell he was reading that screen the whole way.
+1 Jordan Staal - Gained the blue line through sheer physical inertia.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 7:09 Wingels (Demers)
-1 Harrison - Senselessly trying to be cute in the defensive zone, and gets the puck pounded right back into the net.

1st 16:31 Vlasic (Thornton, Hertl)
-1 Ruutu - Got caught being a passenger on defense, failing to cover his point, and ended up deflecting the puck into his own net.

3rd 9:35 Braun (Marleau, Pavelski)
Goalie Error - Ward - For the life of me I can't figure out why he misplayed this. Lucky it wasn't a back-breaker.

Totals
+3 Lindholm
+2 Nash
+2 Jordan Staal
+2 Tlusty
+1 Boychuk
+1 Gerbe
+1 Harrison
+1 Sekera
-1 Ruutu
Error - Ward

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 31 @ Vancouver Canucks
12/9/2013
2-0 Loss



ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 3:35 Tanev (Hamhuis, Higgins)
-1 Eric Staal - This whole sequence was a bit of a fire drill, but the main problem was Staal being burnt to the inside by Higgins. That threw everyone else into chaos.
-1 Skinner - Continues his habit of freelancing around the defensive zone. This time he was floating around in the neutral zone at the same time Higgins was in the slot with the puck. When he finally got back, he abandoned his post and (with the best of intentions) made it a priority to give Sekera his stick, with no regard to what was happening elsewhere. Not only did this leave Tanev wide open for a shot, and completely confuse Eric Staal on his assignment, it also forced Sekera to stand right there in the shooting lane and receive Skinner's stick -- screening Peters in the process. None of this happens if young Jeffrey is in position to begin with.
-1 Ruutu - For passing to the stick-less Sekera, as discussed below. This one will include a Margin of Error point.

Totals
-1 Ruutu
-1 Skinner
-1 Eric Staal

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 32 @ Edmonton Oilers
12/10/2013
5-4 OT Loss



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 9:37 Jordan Staal (Gerbe, Sekera)
+1 Sekera - Nice pinch to keep the puck low.
+1 Gerbe - I don't know how he managed to get that puck to the net, but it worked for him.
+1 Westgarth - IT'S A PLUS FOR WESTGARTH! He sandwiched a couple of Oilers down into the crease, preventing them from covering that loose puck.
+1 Jordan Staal - Well positioned to snap that rebound right back into the net.

3rd 14:46 Skinner (Lindholm)
+1 Skinner - No way he actually expected this to go straight in, but he showed some great awareness of the screen that was forming behind him.
+1 Lindholm - Continues to do the gritty work necessary to create goals. Good to see.
+1 Malhotra - Provided the screen that turned an innocent blind shot into a critical goal.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 1:33 Hall (Gagner, Yakupov)
-1 Jordan Staal - The Canes have had some issues with plays like this, where the center gets beaten along the boards on the breakout and everyone gets caught flat-footed going the wrong way. This is the latest edition.
-1 Murphy - Nothing wrong with wanting to go up that lane, but he overcommitted at the wrong moment.

1st 11:04 Yakupov (Hall, Ference)
-1 Hainsey - Got mesmerized by the puck and ended up defending an imaginary Oiler RW instead of Yakupov loading up right behind him.

1st 18:14 Nugent-Hopkins (Eberle, Ference)
-1 Sekera - I have no idea what he was doing here. Stepped up on a dump-in on the wrong side of the ice, tried to run the puck down on the other side, who knows. Faulk and Ward looked as confused as anyone as to why Sekera had suddenly gone rover.

2nd 1:40 Joensuu (Arcobello, Belov)
-1 Murphy - Some frighteningly poor defensive instincts on display here. Also an indication that he and Hainsey shouldn't be paired.
-1 Jordan Staal - He was trying to do a bit too much at this point, jumping up on Oilers in the neutral zone and lunging at Arcobello beside the net.

Totals
+1 Gerbe
+1 Lindholm
+1 Malhotra
+1 Skinner
+1 Westgarth
-1 Hainsey
-1 Jordan Staal
-2 Murphy

 

[tarheelhockey]

All caught up

Ratings are up to date in post #2.

What's really striking to me right now is that Eric Staal isn't all that far ahead of the other forwards in creating offense, but is by far the biggest offender on the defensive side. Those numbers are ugly, especially his cumulative impact only being a +2 at this point in the season.

On the flip side, guys like Dvorak, Gerbe and Nash are quietly producing a steady trickle of offense while making virtually no defensive mistakes. Compare the offensive output of Gerbe with Skinner, and then look at their defensive results. (bearing in mind of course this is only taking ES play into consideration)

Also, until the Oilers game Jordan had a ridiculous 1 minus in a defensive role against top competition.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 33 @ Calgary Flames
12/12/2013
2-1 OT Loss



ES GOALS FOR

3rd 11:10 Skinner (Ruutu, Staal)
+1 Skinner - That middle-distance wrist shot is really working for him lately.
+1 Ruutu - Brilliant bit of playmaking by his standards, lifting that backhand pass over three sticks and right on Skinner's tape.
+1 Eric Staal - It's not captured in the highlight, but he made a nice breakout play to get the puck out of the defensive zone with speed.

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 17:49 McGratton (Bouma, Byron)
-1 Ruutu - Gets utterly outmuscled by Bouma, turning a safely cornered puck into a quick scoring chance.
-1 Eric Staal - Inexplicably reads the play as going up the boards, when it was obviously coming back behind the net. You can see the frustration in Harrison's body language as Staal floats by harmlessly, leaving McGratton AND Byron completely alone in scoring position.
*I don't track +/- for the goalies, but Peters also deserves a minus here for beginning this sequence with a very poor pass behind the net.

OT 4:56 Butler (Byron, Backlund)
-1 Jordan Staal - I went back and forth about whether to call this a goalie error, seeing as Backlund's screen only lasted a split-second and he didn't get a stick on the puck. But at the end of the day, it's Jordan's job to mark his man and open the lane for Peters to see. He was just a little soft on the zone entry and it only took a second for it to bite him.

Totals
+1 Skinner
-1 Jordan Staal

 

[Joe McGrath]

Couple thoughts. In the Vancouver game, didn't the entire sequence start with Ruutu passing the puck to a stick less Sekera in front if his own net? Did you judge that as more of a victim of a crummy situation than an outright minus?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Couple thoughts. In the Vancouver game, didn't the entire sequence start with Ruutu passing the puck to a stick less Sekera in front if his own net? Did you judge that as more of a victim of a crummy situation than an outright minus?

I vaguely remember a GDT comment to that effect, but I didn't see it and can't find any video that includes the entire sequence.

From what you remember, did it seem minus worthy?

 

[Blueline Bomber]

At the time, it definitely seemed minus-worthy. But as time passed, I really can't blame Ruutu for that since he technically made the right move.

He won a board battle and passed it to the open man. It was just pisspoor luck that Sekera was completely stickless.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

^look before you pass always

From what you remember, did it seem minus worthy?

dear god yes the second it happened it was as good as in the back of the net

blind passes like that are brutal

 

[Joe McGrath]

It might be a margin of error thing. Sekera was without his stick for a decent amount of time, Ruutu was close to exiting the zone but got cut off. He then made what would have been a smart play passing it to an uncovered Sekera. Unfortunately, he didn't have a stick and the Canucks regained possesion. The cynic in me says it's a minus because Ruutu needs to be aware enough to know his defenseman has no stick. The other part thinks that he did so much appropriately on that play only to be a victim of circumstance.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Sounds like a perfect time for margin of error. I'll edit the above.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 34 @ Phoenix Coyotes
12/14/2013
3-1 Win



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 8:50 Gerbe (Eric Staal, Gleason)
+1 Gerbe - Scored the goal, which is unforgettably important.
+1 Eric Staal - It's really hard to tell based on the video that's out there, but it looks like Eric put the puck up off the glass and over the defenseman in a way that laid it out on a platter for Gerbe in the neutral zone.
+1 Faulk - Great instincts to jump up and become a forward, giving Gerbe the space to make a move.

3rd 3:00 Skinner (Eric Staal)
+1 Skinner - Absolutely ridiculous to dig the puck out and get that kind of shot in one motion.

3rd 19:54 Eric Staal (Jordan Staal)
Empty netter by Lazy Eric, no changes.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 6:14 Bissonnette (Murphy, Halpern)
-1 Gleason - Ugly turnover in the slot while trying to rag the puck one-handed, leaving everyone flat-footed.

Totals
+1 Faulk
+1 Skinner
+1 Eric Staal
-1 Gleason

 

[Joe McGrath]

Game 34 @ Phoenix Coyotes
12/14/2013
3-1 Win



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 8:50 Gerbe (Eric Staal, Gleason)
+1 Eric Staal - It's really hard to tell based on the video that's out there, but it looks like Eric put the puck up off the glass and over the defenseman in a way that laid it out on a platter for Gerbe in the neutral zone.
+1 Faulk - Great instincts to jump up and become a forward, giving Gerbe the space to make a move.

3rd 3:00 Skinner (Eric Staal)
+1 Skinner - Absolutely ridiculous to dig the puck out and get that kind of shot in one motion.

3rd 19:54 Eric Staal (Jordan Staal)
Empty netter by Lazy Eric, no changes.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 6:14 Bissonnette (Murphy, Halpern)
-1 Gleason - Ugly turnover in the slot while trying to rag the puck one-handed, leaving everyone flat-footed.

Totals
+1 Faulk
+1 Skinner
+1 Eric Staal
-1 Gleason

I think you forgot to give Gerbe a plus on his goal.

On the Skinner goal, this is more of a general clarification, are you giving + for only clean face off wins and - for clean losses?

 

[tarheelhockey]

I think you forgot to give Gerbe a plus on his goal.

Ooops...

On the Skinner goal, this is more of a general clarification, are you giving + for only clean face off wins and - for clean losses?

Not necessarily clean, but decisive enough to be creditable. In that case, Hanzal actually got the better of Eric on the draw but Skinner got in there and picked the puck out first.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Just an observation, but Gerbe has yet to pick up a minus this season. I don't feel like he's been THAT good defensively, so I propose the theory that playing next to Jordan has got to be one of the lowest-pressure defensive assignments on the team. Gerbe probably ends up defending a lot of guys whose linemates are having a hard time.

 

[Lazyking]

I think he's held his own tho.. I love Gerbe. Fearless, hard nosed player with some offensive skill.. Would be great for a deep Stanley cup team.

 

[ONO94]

Game 34 @ Phoenix Coyotes
1st 6:14 Bissonnette (Murphy, Halpern)
-1 Gleason - Ugly turnover in the slot while trying to rag the puck one-handed, leaving everyone flat-footed.

[

How is that only on Gleason? Dvorak turned it over in the corner to begin with, which led to the shot that rebounded out front--Gleason had to reach to even get back to the puck and barely touched it before the Coyotes guy sent it back out to the point. It was Bowman looking at the puck and man that could've stopped the pass and Dvorak who looped and let Bissonette beat him to the goal.

 

[tarheelhockey]

How is that only on Gleason? Dvorak turned it over in the corner to begin with, which led to the shot that rebounded out front--Gleason had to reach to even get back to the puck and barely touched it before the Coyotes guy sent it back out to the point. It was Bowman looking at the puck and man that could've stopped the pass and Dvorak who looped and let Bissonette beat him to the goal.

Can you provide a video with that whole sequence? I'm only going with the truncated version that exists on nhl.com and YouTube.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Can you provide a video with that whole sequence? I'm only going with the truncated version that exists on nhl.com and YouTube.

FWIW when I watched it live I didn't think Gleason turned the puck over either, he just reached to get the puck away from his man. Then he over pursued like hell and no one covered his side of the ice. I'm not sure what happened before but I'm fairly certain the wholw shift was dominated by BizNasty's line which should be grounds to give a minus to everyone on the ice.

 

[ONO94]

Can you provide a video with that whole sequence? I'm only going with the truncated version that exists on nhl.com and YouTube.

This should give you the link to the video recap on the Hurricanes site:

http://video.hurricanes.nhl.com/videocenter/console?hlg=20132014,2,496&lang=en

which gives more context to play

 

[Lucky Lindy]

Bump.

tarheels, do you still have time for it? Because it's a great thread, and would be great if it will continue!

 

[tarheelhockey]

Bump.

tarheels, do you still have time for it? Because it's a great thread, and would be great if it will continue!

Every day I think I'm going to start catching up. Between work, family, Canes games, beer league, mod stuff and the HoH centers project, I just haven't had the spare time. But the next two weeks might be a saving grace... thanks for the bump, it'll get me in gear a bit.

 

[Lazyking]

You got two weeks to get it caught up.. You can doooo it Tarheel!