2011 draft Ranking of Rankings

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by rycky182, May 24, 2011.

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  1. rycky182

    rycky182 Registered User

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    Hi all,
    I've made a draft ranking for 2011 prospect. It's made from ranking of : TSN, THN, ISS, THW, CBC, FC, TSR, HockeyProspectus and Craig Button.
    So basically, it is a ranking of rankings.

    For example: Ryan Strome is ranked from 3rd to 10th within tops hockey website wich mean a average of 6 if we add all 9 predictions divided by 9. By the same standard, Ryan Murphy is ranked from 4th to 8th but get an average of 6.56. Or Jonathan Huberdeau is ranked from 2nd to 14th with an average of 5.78. So Huberdeau gets rank 5th, Strome 6th and Murphy 7th.

    No player have less than 4 predictions.

    Unfortunately, I don't have rankings of RLR or McKeen's, but still. I don't have top 100 prospects of them all neither, some are top 65 (TSN...) or top 30 (ISS...) for example.

    Well, tell me what you think...


    RK Player POS
    1 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C
    2 Adam Larsson D
    3 Sean Couturier C
    4 Gabriel Landeskog LW
    5 Jonathan Huberdeau C
    6 Ryan Strome C
    7 Ryan Murphy D
    8 Dougie Hamilton D
    9 Mika Zibanejad C
    10 Sven Bartschi LW
    11 Nathan Beaulieu D
    12 Joel Armia RW
    13 Brandon Saad LW
    14 Jamieson Oleksiak D
    15 Duncan Siemens D
    16 Mark McNeill C
    17 Matthew Puempel LW
    18 Mark Scheifele C
    19 Scott Mayfield D
    20 Jonas Brodin D
    21 Rocco Grimaldi C
    22 Ty Rattie RW
    23 David Musil D
    24 Zack Phillips C
    25 Nicklas Jensen RW
    26 Alexander Khokhlachev C
    27 Tyler Biggs RW
    28 Vladislav Namestnikov C
    29 Boone Jenner C
    30 Joseph Morrow D

    31 Tomas Jurco RW
    32 Victor Rask C
    33 Daniel Catenacci C
    34 Jonathan Miller C
    35 Oscar Klefbom D
    36 Dmitri Jaskin RW
    37 Rickard Rakell C
    38 Connor Murphy D
    39 Adam Clendening D
    40 Brett Ritchie RW
    41 Mario Lucia LW
    42 Shane Prince LW
    43 Robbie Russo D
    44 Seth Ambroz RW
    45 Michael St. Croix C
    46 Stefan Noesen LW
    47 Lucas Lessio LW
    48 Phillip Danault C
    49 Matthew Nieto LW
    50 Nicholas Shore RW
    51 Stuart Percy D
    52 Colin Jacobs C
    53 John Gibson G
    54 Vincent Trocheck C
    55 Myles Bell D
    56 Reece Scarlett D
    57 Xavier Ouellet D
    58 Joseph LaBate C
    59 Marcus Granlund C
    60 Shane McColgan RW

    61 Max Friberg LW
    62 Nikita Kucherov RW
    63 Maxim Shalunov RW
    64 Michael Paliotta D
    65 Scott Harrington D
    66 Ryan Sproul D
    67 Miikka Salomaki C
    68 Tyler Wotherspoon D
    69 Philippe Hudon C
    70 Samu Perhonen G
    71 Christopher Gibson G
    72 Adam Lowry LW
    73 Gregory Hofmann C
    74 Reid Boucher LW
    75 Joel Edmundson D
    76 Albert Yarullin D
    77 Tobias Rieder C
    78 Rasmus Bengtsson D
    79 Zakhar Arzamastsev D
    80 Jeremy Boyce Rotevall LW
    81 Joachim Nermark C
    82 Jesse Forsberg D
    83 Dillon Simpson D
    84 Alan Quine C
    85 Travis Ewanyk LW
    86 Max Everson D
    87 Marcel Noebels LW
    88 Austen Brassard RW
    89 Alexei Marchenko D
    90 Patrick Koudys D

    91 Nick Cousins C
    92 TJ Tynan C
    93 Logan Shaw RW
    94 William Karlsson C
    95 Jean-Francois Leblanc C
    96 Johan Sundstrom C
    97 Andrey Pedan D
    98 Sam Grist D
    99 Zach Yuen D
    100 Kale Kessy C
     
  2. Future

    Future Registered User

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    Assuming the Bruins make it to the finals, I'd be ecstatic as a Leaf fan to pick up both Jensen and Jenner. Two Oshawa Generals, both big power-forwards with good potential, epecially Jensen.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2011
  3. rycky182

    rycky182 Registered User

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    Yeah, after sending Wheeler to Atlanta for Peverley, they will need that kind of player.
     
  4. jukon

    jukon NHL Point Leader

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    I like Klefbom at 35 :nod:
     
  5. Future

    Future Registered User

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    I was talking about the Leafs picks :)
     
  6. DJB

    DJB #MELNYKOUT

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    Nice work!!!! :)

    Are you planning on updating once all the scouting bureau's update their lists and make them final? I think that would be pretty cool.

    The one thing that has always intruiged me is to see which scouting service does the best job of predicting players in terms of their NHL careers.

    Like (although pretty early since it was 2010), I think it was RLR that had Skinner raned the highest of the major scouting services at 7th I beleive. TSN had him 10th.

    Although thought to be way too high, Skinner appears so far to be the best player in the draft.


    I've always wondered which scouting serive does the best of that...
     
  7. rycky182

    rycky182 Registered User

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    yeah for sure because I only have January ranking for TSR for example. But most are from May and April.

    As for Skinner, he was ranked only 25th by THN and 18th by TSR but 9th by RLR and ISS (I did the same kind of ranking last year).

    Maxim Kitsyn was the most overrated by scouting services who all ranked him between 43rd and 59th but was draft 158th. Same thing for Teemu Pulkkinen, Konrad Abeltshauser, Troy Rutkowski, Mark Stone and Stanislav Galiev.

    Or maybe they're going to be very good sleepers.
     
  8. The Old Master

    The Old Master Registered User

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    great job! I'm looking forward to your finale rankings
     
  9. YNWA14

    YNWA14 You'll Never Walk Alone

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    Interesting. I wouldn't be upset at grabbing Strome at 6, but I doubt that Jensen makes it to 25th as I'd expect Ottawa to pick him up.
     
  10. hawksfan50

    hawksfan50 Registered User

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    Some observations---No Central Scouting Rankings? (I know they use separate lists for NA's and euros and separate goalie lists for NA's and euros too -but still somehow
    it should affect the overall consensus too).

    ALSO -we do not yet have Bob Mckenzie's Final Rankings which always seem so close on the top 30 to actual drafting ..

    ALSO you say you don't use RLR or MCKEENs in this --so again some big misses from conensus..



    It is also interesting as to WHEN the rankings were done...For instance THE HOCKEY NEWS DRAFT GUIDE put out their rankings before the World u-18's ....THey boast that they use the input of 12 actual NHL team' s scouts --that SHOULD provide some better insight as tohow the actual nHL teams consensus forms to likely draft results -but again THIS WAS BEFORE te world u-18's-so maybe some opinions drastically changed.



    From consensus we also must account for certain preferances which appear cemented by some orgs whereas these appearway off base when looking at otherorgs rankings..


    Case Study: JT MILLER ...

    The "consensus" from the above "ranking of the rankings" shows him only at #34
    ...THN Draft Guide has him at #59 but also reports an earlier (before World u-18)
    ISS ranking of 40 for Miller...SO the above "conensus" now likes MILLER by a "gap" of 25 above what THN has him --whereas the ISS improved its view of MILLER from that earlier 40 to 16 (a gap improvement of 24)...IT seems the change in ISS ranking really influenced the overall "conensus" per ranking of the rankings...
    ON the other hand --if THN had published later (after the World U-18) then its terrible ranking of Miller would never be so way off UNLESS the 12 NHL team scouts it relied on did not themselves move as much off their prior views of Miller..

    Left out of all this was Central Scouting...IT had MILLER at #13 all the way back
    in its mid-term rankings of JUST NA skaters and he avctually fell to #23 on their Final rankings !!! BUT thise were ALSO before the world u-18's...



    WHAT this all says is that it appears NHL teams's actual scouts are WAY OFF conensus of the independent ranking of rankinmg of the various orgs AND that opinions change on a dime --fickleness over true conviction.


    ALL this suggests MILLER could go from #13 (what if Central scouting had aited till the U-18's were over and confirmed its earlier ranking of Miller?) to #34 based on the 'ranking of rankings " conensus...

    ALL that is not very helpful to us draftniks who are trying to figure out true value.

    I think we ought to go back to actual listing of what we like and dislike about a kid's game (WHICH only tells us where he is NOW ) and "adjust" up down or not much based on upside or downside "projection" to the pro game...

    THAT is what scouts SHOULD do in ranking --but instead it seems biases about "gapping" above or below others --in other words ,RELATIVISM --
    seems to determine the rankings and thius the conensus if a rankinmg of rankings is attempted.


    Now in MILLER"s case -this is what EVEN the 12 NHL team scouts (or some of them) seemed to tell THN about MILLER--they all liked his skating and skill --but what really had them excited was his consistent work-effort =tenaciousness ...they indicated he had the tools to play on the top 2 lines but liked him more as a role player on the bottom 2 lines and so the designation of "checking forward" was assigned to his "projection" as a nHL'er and voila THN puts him only at #59 because relatively --others are 'sexier' than a mere "checking forward".


    WEll at the world u-18's MILLER was his usual checking +effort guy as a 2nd line centre but also --like a 2nd line centre should contributed offense...He showed the requisite SPEED to project better than a mere "checking forward" and the skill to be a good 2nd line centre projection for the NHL.
    The tenaciousness and grit was also in evidence...
    IF you asked -who does he compare to the name Ryan Kesler comes to mind -ie. the PERFECT 2nd line centre.
    Would YOU rank Kesler at #59 ? OR even at #34 ? OR was good 'ol Central Scouting more correct -ie. #23NA or even their prior view of #13 NA which if you add in Larsson Zibanejad and Armia as 3 euros who will go in the first 12 picks--then it seems more appropriate to put MILLER at #15 to #26 overall ...the average of that range is 20-21 which means MILLER should not be ranked lower than that..

    BTW --KESLER was drafted at #23 --but seeing how valuable Kesler is today --many would claim he is worth what most top 5 picks are..


    Now i do not suggest MILLER willgo top 5 ..but i think after considering what MILLER brings to the table he probably goes 13-18 for teams wanting to draft centres in that range... The usual centre 'suspects" in this range to also consider are MCNEILL and SCHEIFELE and maybe PHILLIPS (who seems liked by THN and Central Scouting more than theother rankers). The Grimaldi wildcard factor could also affect things .

    HEre is my own view of all this: Grimaldi will not go in the 13-18 slots...



    DAL at #14 takes a D-man (Seimens or Beaulieu -whichever BOS did not take at #9) OR if COL takes RNH 2nd because EDM takes Larson 1st THEN COL will take the
    leftover of Seimens or Beaulieu at #11--that means DAL might take a forward at #14Bartschi ...


    So:
    #9 BOS: BEAULIEU or SEIMENS
    #10 MINN: ZIBANEJAD
    #11 COL : ARMIA or SEIMENS/BEAULIEU leftover
    #12 CAR: BARTSCHI or ARMIA..
    #13 CGY :SCHEIFELE
    #14 DAL: SEIMENS/BEAULIEU leftover if still on the board OR BARTSCHI/ARMIA leftover ..
    #15 NYR: MCNEILL,PHILLIPS or MILLER
    #16 BUFF : OLEKESIAK
    #17 MTL : KLEFBOM ,BRODIN ,or CONNOR MURPHY
    #18: leftover choice from 2 of MCNEILL ,PHILLIPS or MILLER

    NYR probably takes MCNEILL (pro size power centre with projection-HOPE- upside or PHILLIPS who projects to top line playmaking and scoring centre with good defensive habits and good hockey sense but not physical rather than the in-betweener on size and 2-way only 2nd liner upside MILLER ...


    Whether we rank MILLER or PHILLIPS ahead of MCNEILL or in what rank order they are -all 3 look to be possible candiades to go either 15th or 18th because NYR and CHI would prefer to draft centres at those spots ...if CGY prefers say Brandon Saad instead of Scheifele at #13 then NYR would take Scheifele at #15 leaving CHI the decision among the 3 leftover centres.

    MY own preference for CHI's need is MILLER over Scheifele,MCNeill and Phillips in that scenario or over just the latter two or either of them if only they are inplay with Miller for the selection.

    My reason for that decision is not based on any conensus rankinmg (because all are close in my view) but based on who best fits the job description NEED:


    THE CHI NEED: 2nd line centre ---job descriotion: Ryan Kesler clone.

    So I do not care if that guy is #23 or #13 in rankings --just that he fits the descriotion...NONE of the centres in possible contention fits that better than JT MILLER..

    THEREFORE he should be at the top of CHI's want list-that is all that matters not some BPA bsed on any conensus ranking of rankings or even CHI's own BPA list..
    AT #18 you cannot (except for wildcard risk) say that a BPA winger or D-man is SO MUCH BETTER than these centres who are in the mix near that spot that it justifies following the rank list...AT #18 among close choices the position NEED and job description should prevail..

    SINCE my own personal view is that neither MCNEILL nor PHILLIPS fits the job descriotion for the type of centre I want for CHI -if they are the only choices remaining (Because NYR took Miller and CGY took Scheifele) THEN I would strongly consider going to a swing for the fences on a Non-conensus "wildcard" for that spot.
    (eg. Nikita Kucherov ) -not a need feel and not even close to where conensus appears to rank him -from the 60's to the 90's ) BUT he sure looks to have as good "talent" as any top 5 forward for this draft--albeit with big risks...

    So ranking lists may not be that important as other considerations when you draft #18 ...org position needs and type wanted to fill the need OR a "swing for the fences' decision could prevail over --"let's see --the next guy on our ranking is "X" so we hAVE to take him!" WRONG! Maybe for the top 12 or so --but after that the "other considerations" have to be in the mix on the decision..
     
  11. 17Kurri

    17Kurri Registered User

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    Interesting approach, good effort.

    However, the wider the range in rankings of a player, I think the more likely he'll be picked at closer to one end or the other, rather than near the middle of the range.
     
  12. rycky182

    rycky182 Registered User

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    Thanks for your input all and hawksfan50.

    For your info, JT Miller is ranked:
    TSN(apr) 28
    THN(apr) 59
    ISS(may) 16
    THW(mar) 43
    CBC(may) 16
    FC(may) 30
    TSR(jan) 30
    HP(may) 54
    CB(apr) over 30

    As you say, they are not all up to date yet.
    But you can see that as of May, they ranked him 16-16-30-54. In fact, if I only take May ranking (iss, cbc, fc and hp), he would have been ranked 30th.

    Some Scouting services use a network of scouts to help them make their ranking as of TSN and ISS for example. Others seems to be alone or with few helpers as of THW and HockeyProspectus. This may change the final ranking, but removing THN doesn't make alot of change to this ranking as they are 9 of those.

    A good option would be to put a weight on each depending on how many scouts and how accurate they usually are... but that's kind of hard and subjective.

    Mckeen's only shows top 10 on their website and i'm not going to buy all guides. RLR show nothing. So, if someone is good enough to send me these ranking, I'll be able to put a more complete final ranking of rankings...
     
  13. rycky182

    rycky182 Registered User

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    @17Kurri
    Maybe you're right... I made a quick verification on who got the biggest gap between the best and worse ranking for the same player.
    For exemple:
    Nikita Kucherov is ranked as high as 19 by HP and not even in top 100 for THW. Same thing for Dimitri Jaskin(HP=20, CBC=over 100) and Philip Danault(CB=15, CBC=92)
    Will they be 1st rounder or 4th rounder??

    Option: removing one data (lowest and highest rank) for each player????

    @hawksfan50
    I forgot to say in my last post that CBC ranking are done by Mark Seidel, chief scout for North American Central Scouting So CS is represented in this ranking.
     

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