2007-10 ISS Final Rankings vs. Reality...

[AmericanDream]

I just wanted to throw this thread together to kind of show the reality of ISS and how close they are to getting the top 30 correct, or how far off they are in this regards.

It seems many posters on here feel that when ISS or Central Scouting put out there lists that it is close to fact when it comes to these kids getting drafted. Many on here follow these lists and its rankings like sheep. When you bring up a player not currently in either top 30 lists, you are out of your mind for doing so, or when the opposite happens and you dont like a player currently in the top 30 you are mad again.

Now this isnt every poster on here, some actually do try and venture from the herd, but many times I just see people posting the same mock drafts because it is what they have seen from these services, and then the people who post different get the "LOL!, WTF!, YOUR CRAZY! THIS PLAYER SUCKS BECAUSE ISS DOESNT HAVE HIM IN THE TOP 30, ETC..).

So I have posted below a final top 30 ranking from ISS over the past 4 years, and then have posted the actual NHL draft top 30 below it. This will show how close it actually was to being accurate. Now ofcourse some years it is a crap shoot with so many players being tossed around from #15-40, but at least this gives us an idea as to how close ISS is when it comes to their FINAL rankings.


2010 ISS FINAL RANKING : JUNE

1 Hall, Taylor LW 11/14/1991 L *6.00.5 185 Windsor OHL
2 Seguin, Tyler C 1/31/1992 R *6.01 172 Plymouth OHL
3 Gormley, Brandon D 2/18/1992 L *6.02 185 Moncton QMJHL
4 Tarasenko, Vladimir RW 12/13/1991 L 5.11 202 Novosibirsk KHL
5 Fowler, Cam D 12/5/1991 L *6.01.25 190 Windsor OHL
6 Niederreiter, Nino LW 9/8/1992 L *6.01.5 201 Portland WHL
7 Gudbranson, Erik D 1/7/1992 R *6.03.75 195 Kingston OHL
8 Johansen, Ryan C 7/31/1992 R *6.02 192 Portland WHL
9 Skinner, Jeffrey C 5/16/1992 L *5.10 187 Kitchener OHL
10 Forbort, Derek D 3/4/1992 L *6.04.5 198 Under 18 USHL
11 Merrill, Jonathan D 2/3/1992 L *6.03.25 198 Under 18 USHL
12 Watson, Austin RW 1/13/1992 R *6.03.25 185 Peterborough OHL
13 Connolly, Brett LW 5/2/1992 R 6.02 181 Prince George WHL
14 Burmistrov, Alexander C 10/21/1991 L *5.11.25 157 Barrie OHL
15 Granlund, Mikael C 2/26/1992 L 5.10 180 HIFK Helsinki FinE
16 Howden, Quinton LW 1/12/1992 L *6.02 182 Moose Jaw WHL
17 Pysyk, Mark D 1/11/1992 R *6.01.25 174 Edmonton WHL
18 Etem, Emerson C 6/16/1992 L *6.00.25 190 Medicine Hat WHL
19 Kuznetsov, Evgeny C 5/19/1992 L 6.00 172 Chelyabinsk KHL
20 Pitlick, Tyler C 11/1/1991 R 6.01.5 194 Mankato WCHA
21 Bjugstad, Nick C 7/17/1992 R *6.03.75 188 Blaine MN-HS
22 Sheahan, Riley C 12/7/1991 L 6.01.5 202 Notre Dame CCHA
23 Schwartz, Jaden C 6/25/1992 L *5.10 180 Tri-City USHL
24 Galiev, Stanislav C 1/17/1992 R *6.00.75 178 Saint John QMJHL
25 Tinordi, Jarred D 2/20/1992 L *6.05.5 205 Under 18 USHL
26 Nelson, Brock C 10/15/1991 L *6.02.5 205 Warroad MN-HS
27 Rensfeldt, Ludvig LW 1/29/1992 L *6.02.75 192 Brynas SJ18A
28 Coyle, Charlie RW 3/2/1992 R *6.01.5 202 South Shore EJHL
29 Larsson, Johan LW 7/25/1992 L *5.10 200 Brynas SJ18A
30 Zucker, Jason LW 1/16/1992 L *5.10.5 174 Under 18 USHL

2010 NHL DRAFT RESULTS

1 1 1 EDM Taylor Hall LW CAN 6' 1" 194 OHL Windsor
1 2 2 BOS Tyler Seguin C CAN 6' 1" 182 OHL Plymouth
1 3 3 FLA Erik Gudbranson D CAN 6' 4" 195 OHL Kingston
1 4 4 CBJ Ryan Johansen C CAN 6' 2" 192 WHL Portland
1 5 5 NYI Nino Niederreiter RW CHE 6' 2" 205 WHL Portland
1 6 6 TBL Brett Connolly RW CAN 6' 2" 181 WHL Prince George
1 7 7 CAR Jeff Skinner C CAN 5' 10" 193 OHL Kitchener
1 8 8 ATL Alexander Burmistrov C RUS 6' 1" 180 OHL Barrie
1 9 9 MIN Mikael Granlund C/W FIN 5' 10" 180 FINLAND HIFK
1 10 10 NYR Dylan McIlrath D CAN 6' 4" 214 WHL Moose Jaw
1 11 11 DAL Jack Campbell G USA 6' 3" 175 USHL USA U-18
1 12 12 ANA Cam Fowler D CAN 6' 1" 190 OHL Windsor
1 13 13 PHX Brandon Gormley D CAN 6' 2" 185 QMJHL Moncton
1 14 14 STL Jaden Schwartz C CAN 5' 10" 180 USHL Tri-City
1 15 15 LAK Derek Forbort D USA 6' 5" 198 USHL USA U-18
1 16 16 STL Vladimir Tarasenko RW RUS 5' 11" 202 RUSSIA Novosibirsk
1 17 17 COL Joey Hishon C CAN 5' 10" 170 OHL Owen Sound
1 18 18 NSH Austin Watson LW USA 6' 3" 185 OHL Peterborough
1 19 19 FLA Nick Bjugstad C USA 6' 4" 188 HIGH-MN Blaine
1 20 20 PIT Beau Bennett RW USA 6' 1" 173 BCHL Penticton
1 21 21 DET Riley Sheahan C CAN 6' 2" 202 CCHA U. of Notre Dame
1 22 22 MTL Jarred Tinordi D USA 6' 6" 205 USHL USA U-18
1 23 23 BUF Mark Pysyk D CAN 6' 1" 174 WHL Edmonton
1 24 24 CHI Kevin Hayes RW USA 6' 2" 201 HIGH-MA Nobles
1 25 25 FLA Quinton Howden C CAN 6' 2" 182 WHL Moose Jaw
1 26 26 WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov C RUS 6' 0" 172 RUSSIA Chelyabinsk
1 27 27 PHX Mark Visentin G CAN 6' 2" 187 OHL Niagara
1 28 28 SJS Charlie Coyle C/RW USA 6' 2" 205 EJHL South Shore
1 29 29 ANA Emerson Etem RW USA 6' 0" 190 WHL Medicine Hat
1 30 30 NYI Brock Nelson C USA 6' 3" 205 HIGH-MN Warroad


2009 ISS FINAL RANKINGS : JUNE

1. JOHN TAVARES C 6'0" 198 L Sep 20/90 London OHL
2. MATT DUCHENE C 5'11" 198 L Jan 16/91 Brampton OHL
3. VICTOR HEDMAN D 6'6" 220 L Dec 18/90 Modo SweE
4. M. PAAJARVI-SVENSSON LW 6'1" 200 L Apr 12/91 Timra SweE
5. EVANDER KANE C 5'11" 160 L Aug 01/91 Vancouver WHL
6. BRAYDEN SCHENN C 6'0" 196 L Aug 22/91 Brandon WHL
7. JARED COWEN D 6'5" 218 L Jan 25/91 Spokane WHL
8. NAZEM KADRI C 6'1" 177 L Oct 06/90 London OHL
9. OLIVER EKMAN-LARSSON D 6'2" 176 L Oct 10/90 Leksands SweAl
10. DMITRI KULIKOV D 6'1" 195 L Oct 29/90 Drummondville QMJHL
11. JACOB JOSEFSON C 6'0" 187 L Mar 02/91 Djurgarden SweE
12. LOUIS LEBLANC C 5'11" 170 R Jan 26/91 Omaha USHL
13. RYAN ELLIS D 5'10" 173 R Jan 03/91 Windsor OHL
14. JORDAN SCHROEDER RW 5'8" 165 R Sep 29/90 U of MN WCHA
15. PETER HOLLAND C 6'2" 190 L Jan 14/91 Guelph OHL
16. JOHN MOORE D 6'2" 189 L Nov 19/90 Chicago USHL
17. LANDON FERRARO RW 6'0" 170 R Aug 08/91 Red Deer WHL
18. DREW SHORE C 6'2" 198 R Jan 29/91 USA18 NTDP
19. SCOTT GLENNIE C 6'1" 180 R Feb 22/91 Brandon WHL
20. ZACK KASSIAN RW 6'3" 205 R Jan 24/91 Peterborough OHL
21. NICK LEDDY D 5'11" 179 L Mar 20/91 Eden Prairie MN-HS
22. DAVID RUNDBLAD R 6'2 189 R Oct 8/90 Skelleftea SweE
23. KYLE PALMIERI C 5'10" 191 R Feb 1/91 USA18 NTDP
24. CHRIS KREIDER LW 6'2" 201 L Apr 30/91 Andover MA-HS
25. JORDAN CARON C 6'2" 200 L Nov 02/90 Rimouski QMJHL
26. ETHAN WEREK C 6'0" 191 L June 7/91 Kingston OHL
27. JEREMY MORIN C 5'10" 160 R Apr 16/91 USA18 NTDP
28. JOONAS NATTINEN C 6'2" 180 R Mar 03/91 Espoo FinJr
29. DMITRI ORLOV F 6'0" 197 L Jul 23/91 Novokuznetsk KHL
30. SIMON DESPRES LW 6'3" 205 L Jul 27/91 Saint John QMJHL


2009 NHL DRAFT RESULTS: JUNE

1 1 1 NYI John Tavares C CAN 6' 0" 202 OHL London
1 2 2 TBL Victor Hedman D SWE 6' 6" 229 SWEDEN Modo
1 3 3 COL Matt Duchene C CAN 5' 11" 200 OHL Brampton
1 4 4 ATL Evander Kane C CAN 6' 2" 195 WHL Vancouver
1 5 5 LAK Brayden Schenn C CAN 6' 1" 190 WHL Brandon
1 6 6 PHX Oliver Ekman-Larsson D SWE 6' 2" 190 SWEDEN-2 Leksand
1 7 7 TOR Nazem Kadri C CAN 6' 0" 188 OHL London
1 8 8 DAL Scott Glennie R CAN 6' 1" 185 WHL Brandon
1 9 9 OTT Jared Cowen D CAN 6' 5" 228 WHL Spokane
1 10 10 EDM Magnus Paajarvi L SWE 6' 3" 200 SWEDEN Timra
1 11 11 NSH Ryan Ellis D CAN 5' 10" 172 OHL Windsor
1 12 12 NYI Calvin de Haan D CAN 6' 1" 189 OHL Oshawa
1 13 13 BUF Zack Kassian R CAN 6' 3" 214 OHL Peterborough
1 14 14 FLA Dmitry Kulikov D RUS 6' 1" 183 QMJHL Drummondville
1 15 15 ANA Peter Holland C CAN 6' 2" 185 OHL Guelph
1 16 16 MIN Nick Leddy D USA 5' 11" 179 HIGH-MN Eden Prarie
1 17 17 STL David Rundblad D SWE 6' 2" 189 SWEDEN Skelleftea
1 18 18 MTL Louis Leblanc C CAN 6' 0" 178 USHL Omaha
1 19 19 NYR Chris Kreider C USA 6' 3" 217 HIGH-MA Andover
1 20 20 NJD Jacob Josefson C SWE 6' 1" 190 SWEDEN Djurgarden
1 21 21 CBJ John Moore D USA 6' 2" 189 USHL Chicago
1 22 22 VAN Jordan Schroeder C USA 5' 8" 175 WCHA U. of Minnesota
1 23 23 CGY Tim Erixon D USA 6' 2" 190 SWEDEN Skelleftea
1 24 24 WSH Marcus Johansson C SWE 5' 11" 189 SWEDEN Farjestad
1 25 25 BOS Jordan Caron R CAN 6' 2" 202 QMJHL Rimouski
1 26 26 ANA Kyle Palmieri F USA 5' 10" 191 USDP USA U-18
1 27 27 CAR Philippe Paradis C CAN 6' 2" 205 QMJHL Shawinigan
1 28 28 CHI Dylan Olsen D USA 6' 2" 206 AJHL Camrose
1 29 29 TBL Carter Ashton R CAN 6' 3" 215 WHL Lethbridge
1 30 30 PIT Simon Despres D CAN 6' 4" 205 QMJHL Saint John

2008 ISS FINAL RANKINGS: JUNE

1 Stamkos, Steven C 2/7/1990 R 5.11.7 176 Sarnia OHL
2 Bogosian, Zach RD 7/15/1990 R 6.02 197 Peterborough OHL
3 Filatov, Nikita LW 5/25/1990 R 6.00 172 Moscow CSKA-2 RusDi
4 Doughty, Drew RD 12/8/1989 R 6.00.5 219 Guelph OHL
5 Pietrangelo, Alex RD 1/18/1990 R 6.03.2 206 Niagara OHL
6 Schenn, Luke RD 11/2/1989 R 6.02.2 216 Kelowna WHL
7 Boedker, Mikkel LW 12/16/1989 L 5.11.2 195 Kitchener OHL
8 Wilson, Colin (Fr.) C 10/20/1989 L 6.01 215 Boston Univ H.E.
9 Hodgson, Cody C 2/18/1990 R 5.11.5 185 Brampton OHL
10 Bailey, Joshua C 10/2/1989 L 6.00.5 188 Windsor OHL
11 Sbisa, Luca LD 1/30/1990 L 6.01.7 190 Lethbridge WHL
12 Boychuk, Zac C 10/4/1989 L 5.09.5 175 Lethbridge WHL
13 Beach, Kyle C 1/13/1990 R 6.03 203 Everett WHL
14 Tedenby, Mattias LW 2/21/1990 L 5.10 176 HV71 SweJE
15 Myers, Tyler RD 2/1/1990 R 6.07.2 204 Kelowna WHL
16 Colborne, Joe LW 1/30/1990 L 6.05 190 Camrose AJHL
17 Petrov, Kirill LW 4/13/1990 L 6.03 198 Kazan RusDi
18 Teubert, Colten RD 3/8/1990 R 6.03.5 185 Regina WHL
19 Robak, Colby LD 4/24/1990 L 6.03 194 Brandon WHL
20 Dalpe, Zac C 11/1/1989 R 6.00.5 170 Penticton BCHL
21 Carlson, John RD 1/10/1990 R 6.02.2 212 Indiana USHL
22 Karlsson, Erik RD 5/31/1990 R 5.11 165 V. Frolunda SweJE
23 Del Zotto, Michael LD 6/24/1990 L 5.11.7 211 Oshawa OHL
24 Grachev, Evgeny C 2/21/1990 R 6.03 202 Yaroslavl RusDi
25 Deschamps, Nicolas C 1/6/1990 L 6.00.2 173 Chicoutimi QMJHL
26 Trivino, Corey C 1/12/1990 L 6.01 170 Stouffville OPJHL
27 Toews, David LW 6/7/1990 R 5.10 175 Shattuck-St. MN-HS
28 Nemisz, Greg C 6/5/1990 R 6.03 197 Windsor OHL
29 Ness, Aaron LD 5/18/1990 L 5.09.5 157 Roseau MN-HS
30 Eberle, Jordan C 5/15/1990 R 5.10 174 Regina WHL

2008 NHL DRAFT RESULTS

1 1 1 TBL Steven Stamkos C CAN 6' 1" 188 OHL Sarnia
1 2 2 LAK Drew Doughty D CAN 6' 0" 212 OHL Guelph
1 3 3 ATL Zach Bogosian D USA 6' 3" 215 OHL Peterborough
1 4 4 STL Alex Pietrangelo D CAN 6' 3" 206 OHL Niagara
1 5 5 TOR Luke Schenn D CAN 6' 2" 229 WHL Kelowna
1 6 6 CBJ Nikita Filatov L RUS 6' 0" 190 RUSSIA-3 CSKA 2
1 7 7 NSH Colin Wilson C USA 6' 1" 214 H-EAST Boston University
1 8 8 PHX Mikkel Boedker L DNK 5' 11" 202 OHL Kitchener
1 9 9 NYI Josh Bailey C CAN 6' 1" 201 OHL Windsor
1 10 10 VAN Cody Hodgson C CAN 6' 0" 185 OHL Brampton
1 11 11 CHI Kyle Beach C CAN 6' 3" 202 WHL Everett
1 12 12 BUF Tyler Myers D USA 6' 8" 227 WHL Kelowna
1 13 13 LAK Colten Teubert D CAN 6' 4" 195 WHL Regina
1 14 14 CAR Zach Boychuk C CAN 5' 10" 185 WHL Lethbridge
1 15 15 OTT Erik Karlsson D SWE 6' 0" 175 SWE-JR. Frolunda Jr.
1 16 16 BOS Joe Colborne C CAN 6' 5" 190 AJHL Camrose
1 17 17 ANA Jake Gardiner D USA 6' 1" 173 HIGH-MN Minnetonka
1 18 18 NSH Chet Pickard G CAN 6' 2" 213 WHL Tri-City
1 19 19 PHI Luca Sbisa D ITA 6' 2" 204 WHL Lethbridge
1 20 20 NYR Michael Del Zotto D CAN 6' 0" 193 OHL Oshawa
1 21 21 WSH Anton Gustafsson C SWE 6' 2" 193 SWE-JR. Frolunda Jr.
1 22 22 EDM Jordan Eberle C CAN 6' 0" 185 WHL Regina
1 23 23 MIN Tyler Cuma D CAN 6' 2" 180 OHL Ottawa
1 24 24 NJD Mattias Tedenby L SWE 5' 10" 175 SWEDEN HV 71
1 25 25 CGY Greg Nemisz C CAN 6' 3" 197 OHL Windsor
1 26 26 BUF Tyler Ennis C CAN 5' 9" 157 WHL Medicine Hat
1 27 27 WSH John Carlson D USA 6' 3" 208 USHL Indiana
1 28 28 PHX Viktor Tikhonov F LVA 6' 2" 190 RUSSIA Cherepovets
1 29 29 ATL Daultan Leveille C CAN 6' 0" 172 GHL St. Catharine's
1 30 30 DET Thomas McCollum G USA 6' 2" 205 OHL Guelph

Click to read more...

 

[J17 Vs Proclamation]

The main message here is that ISS is actually pretty acurrate (In these years) of who the likely Top 10 guys are. Not in the correct order per say, but the Top ten rankings and Top ten picks aren't that far out of sync.

What becomes obvious is the further into the 1st you go, the way more unpredictable it becomes (Pretty obvious).

 

[AmericanDream]

2007 FINAL ISS RANKINGS: JUNE

1 Kane, Patrick RW 11/19/1988 L 5.09.5 160 London OHL
2 vanRiemsdyk, James LW 5/4/1989 L 6.03 200 USA Under-18 NTDP
3 Turris, Kyle C 8/14/1989 R 6.00.5 170 Burnaby BCHL
4 Cherepanov, Alexei RW 1/15/1989 L 6.00 183 Omsk RusE
5 Voracek, Jakub RW 8/15/1989 L 6.01.5 187 Halifax QMJHL
6 Alzner, Karl LD 9/24/1988 L 6.02 206 Calgary WHL
7 Gagner, Sam C 8/10/1989 R 5.11 191 London OHL
8. Mayorov, Maxim LW 3/26/1989 L 6.02 187 Leninogorsk RusS
9 Ellerby, Keaton LD 11/5/1988 L 6.04.5 186 Kamloops WHL
10 Backlund, Mikael C 3/17/1989 L 6.00 194 Vasteras SweAl
11 Esposito, Angelo C 2/20/1989 L 6.01 180 Quebec QMJHL
12 Gillies, Colto C 2/12/1989 L 6.03.5 189 Saskatoon WHL
13 Couture, Logan C 3/28/1989 L 6.00.5 195 Ottawa OHL
14 Petrecki, Nicholas LD 7/11/1989 L 6.03 213 Omaha USHL
15 Perron, David RW 5/28/1988 R 5.11.5 180 Lewiston QMJHL
16 Hamill, Zach C 9/23/1988 R 5.10.5 180 Everett WHL
17 Hickey, Thomas LD 2/8/1989 L 5.11 182 Seattle WHL
18 Eller, Lars LW 5/8/1989 L 6.00 198 V. Frolunda SweJE
19 McDonagh, Ryan LD 6/13/1989 L 6.01 200 Cretin-Derham USHSW
20 Blum, Jon RD 1/30/1989 R 6.00.5 160 Vancouver WHL
21 MacLean, Brett LW 12/24/198 R 6.01.5 196 Oshawa OHL
22 O'Brien, Jim C 1/29/1989 R 6.02 184 Minnesota WCHA
23 White, Pat C 1/20/1989 R 6.00.5 186 Grand Rapids USHSW
24 MacMillan, Logan 7/5/1989 L 6.01 172 Halifax QMJHL
25 Moller, Oscar RW 1/22/1989 R 5.11 179 Chilliwack WHL
26 Repik, Michal RW 12/31/1988 R 5.10.5 180 Vancouver WHL
27 Shattenkirk, Kevin RD 1/29/1989 R 5.11 193 USA Under-18 NTDP
28 Plante, Alex RD 5/9/1989 R 6.03.5 225 Calgary WHL
29 Cross, Tommy LD 9/12/1989 L6.03 195 Westminster USHSE
30 Sutter, Brandon c 2/14/1989 R 6.03 170 Red Deer WHL

2007 NHL DRAFT RESULTS

Rnd Pick Overall Team Player Pos Country Ht Wt Amateur League Amateur Team
1 1 1 CHI Patrick Kane R USA 5' 10" 178 OHL London
1 2 2 PHI James van Riemsdyk L USA 6' 3" 200 USDP USA U-18
1 3 3 PHX Kyle Turris C CAN 6' 1" 185 BCHL Burnaby
1 4 4 LAK Thomas Hickey D CAN 5' 11" 184 WHL Seattle
1 5 5 WSH Karl Alzner D CAN 6' 3" 206 WHL Calgary
1 6 6 EDM Sam Gagner F CAN 5' 11" 191 OHL London
1 7 7 CBJ Jakub Voracek R CZE 6' 2" 214 QMJHL Halifax
1 8 8 BOS Zach Hamill C CAN 5' 11" 180 WHL Everett
1 9 9 SJS Logan Couture C CAN 6' 1" 195 OHL Ottawa
1 10 10 FLA Keaton Ellerby D CAN 6' 4" 186 WHL Kamloops
1 11 11 CAR Brandon Sutter F USA 6' 3" 183 WHL Red Deer
1 12 12 MTL Ryan McDonagh D USA 6' 1" 213 HIGH-MN Cretin-Derham
1 13 13 STL Lars Eller F DNK 6' 2" 198 SWE-JR. Frolunda Jr.
1 14 14 COL Kevin Shattenkirk D USA 5' 11" 193 USDP USA U-18
1 15 15 EDM Alex Plante D CAN 6' 4" 230 WHL Calgary
1 16 16 MIN Colton Gillies C CAN 6' 4" 189 WHL Saskatoon
1 17 17 NYR Alexei Cherepanov R RUS 6' 1" 187 RUSSIA Omsk
1 18 18 STL Ian Cole D USA 6' 1" 221 USDP USA U-18
1 19 19 ANA Logan Macmillan C CAN 6' 1" 172 QMJHL Halifax
1 20 20 PIT Angelo Esposito C CAN 6' 2" 190 QMJHL Quebec
1 21 21 EDM Riley Nash C CAN 6' 1" 191 BCHL Salmon Arm
1 22 22 MTL Max Pacioretty L USA 6' 2" 196 USHL Sioux City
1 23 23 NSH Jonathon Blum D USA 6' 1" 178 WHL Vancouver
1 24 24 CGY Mikael Backlund C SWE 6' 0" 196 SWEDEN-2 Vasteras
1 25 25 VAN Patrick White C USA 6' 1" 190 USHL Tri-City
1 26 26 STL David Perron L CAN 6' 0" 200 QMJHL Lewiston
1 27 27 DET Brendan Smith D CAN 6' 1" 170 OPJRA St. Michael's
1 28 28 SJS Nick Petrecki D USA 6' 3" 230 USHL Omaha
1 29 29 OTT Jim O'Brien C USA 6' 2" 200 WCHA U. of Minnesota
1 30 30 PHX Nick Ross D CAN 6' 1" 196 WHL Regina


So, how close have they been these past 4 years??

 

[AmericanDream]

The main message here is that ISS is actually pretty acurrate (In these years) of who the likely Top 10 guys are. Not in the correct order per say, but the Top ten rankings and Top ten picks aren't that far out of sync.

What becomes obvious is the further into the 1st you go, the way more unpredictable it becomes (Pretty obvious).

then why even make a top 30 list if you can only look good for the top 10 picks? Gee, I think we all can do that.

the point of this is to see just how accurate they have been for the entire top 30, something that is justifiable and is an honest question.

 

[CupofOil]

I would assume that there are a lot of inaccuracies because the order of their lists are based on the potential of the prospects as opposed to who the team will draft at that spot so in other words, i'm pretty sure that if every team drafted based on BPA that their lists would be more accurate.

 

[AmericanDream]

I would assume that there are a lot of inaccuracies because the order of their lists are based on the potential of the prospects as opposed to who the team will draft at that spot so in other words, i'm pretty sure that if every team drafted based on BPA that their lists would be more accurate.

I would agree to this, but BPA should usually win out no matter the positional need. If ISS says this is the top 30 players talent wise, then the NHL draft should mirror it closely.

Again, this isnt anything that is going to make the ISS look good or bad, it is just something to look at and see how their top 30 stacked up against the actual top 30 of the draft.

 

[AmericanDream]

this isnt just about a player being ranked #3 by ISS but gets drafted at #6 to an NHL team, I am not looking at it being that accurate, I gues I am more interested in guys in their top 30 that didnt go top 30, or guys in their top 15 that went towards number 30 and vice versa.

 

[arsmaster*]

To me the issue isnt whether they predict the 1st round properly, its if they determined the top 30 players from a draft class.

These recent draft years are too early to tell how accurately ISS ranked the top players for drafts....I like the 5 year rule ie. judge the 2007 draft in 2012 etc.

Even in a draft like 2003 (arguably the best draft ever) the top 30 picks arent the top 30 NHLers 8 years later.

 

[Tormentor]

The following blog touches the topic closely: LINK (Bruins 2011 Draft Watch)

2008:
THN: 24/30
RLR: 21/30
ISS: 22/30
FC: 24/30
McKeen's: 24/30

Naturally this number has very little to do with the actual quality of the draft guide.

 

[AmericanDream]

To me the issue isnt whether they predict the 1st round properly, its if they determined the top 30 players from a draft class.

These recent draft years are too early to tell how accurately ISS ranked the top players for drafts....I like the 5 year rule ie. judge the 2007 draft in 2012 etc.

Even in a draft like 2003 (arguably the best draft ever) the top 30 picks arent the top 30 NHLers 8 years later.

this was an issue I was thinking about, but it is beside the point. I am not looking for who turned out better, I am looking for what ISS had ranked at the time, and how the draft played out. that is all. I dont want to turn this into something it isnt..

the thread is about what the final ISS rankings where in the past 4 years, and how close they were to predicting the top 30 players with regards to the actual NHL selections.

 

[ponder]

Some pretty crazy picks considering these are their final rankings released within a couple weeks of the draft. Obviously as you get into the mid/late 1st round its understandable how they can be so far off, the draft is quite unpredictable the further you go down, but even some of their top 4 picks were pretty nuts. They had Gormley and Tarasenko at 3 and 4 in 2010 when they actually went 13 and 16, that is WAY off. I remember right before the draft many people had Gormley quite high, but nobody had Tarasenko in the top 4 except homers and the ISS. And in 2008 everyone and their mother saw it as the Stamkos and Doughty draft, yet they had Doughty at 4th behind Bogo and Filatov.

Still a pretty good list, a lot better than Central Scouting's for example (didn't they have Jeff Skinner out of the 1st round in their final rankings last year?), but there are some head scratchers.

 

[AmericanDream]

Some pretty crazy picks considering these are their final rankings released within a couple weeks of the draft. Obviously as you get into the mid/late 1st round its understandable how they can be so far off, the draft is quite unpredictable the further you go down, but even some of their top 4 picks were pretty nuts. They had Gormley and Tarasenko at 3 and 4 in 2010 when they actually went 13 and 16, that is WAY off. I remember right before the draft many people had Gormley quite high, but nobody had Tarasenko in the top 4 except homers and the ISS. And in 2008 everyone and their mother saw it as the Stamkos and Doughty draft, yet they had Doughty at 4th behind Bogo and Filatov.

Still a pretty good list, a lot better than Central Scouting's for example (didn't they have Jeff Skinner out of the 1st round in their final rankings last year?), but there are some head scratchers.

I guess that is the point of this....to see how close or far off they actually where..

I was going to include Central Scouting as well, but I figured that would be a bit confusing as well, and yes they had Skinner in the mid 30's to 40's I believe, that is crazy.

 

[arsmaster*]

this was an issue I was thinking about, but it is beside the point. I am not looking for who turned out better, I am looking for what ISS had ranked at the time, and how the draft played out. that is all. I dont want to turn this into something it isnt..

the thread is about what the final ISS rankings where in the past 4 years, and how close they were to predicting the top 30 players with regards to the actual NHL selections.

That is fair AD, but I think its unfair to rate the ISS based on the top 30 picks. For example, say they had 25 out of their top 30 drafted in the 1st round, and the other 5 ranked in their top 30 picks went 31-35, I would say that is about as good as you can get, but your point is that they can be wrong, and shouldnt be accepted as the gold standard for rankings, which is perfectly fair, but hard to judge just based on draft position.

I understand why you brought this up, but I believe you need to rank the players by how "you" think they will turn out 5 years down the line, not based on draft position.

I mean the best way to judge the accuracy of these top 30's is provide a +/- for each pick, like if they had Gormley 3 and he went 13 they get a -10...but this doesnt really say anything, because ISS isnt predicting draft position.

Even with Tarasenko last year....he would be a -12 on ISS, but he could be a top 5 player from that draft.

Definately an interesting subject, thanks for posting....it should generate some really good conversation, which is the purpose of this forum, right?

 

[massivegoonery]

I would agree to this, but BPA should usually win out no matter the positional need. If ISS says this is the top 30 players talent wise, then the NHL draft should mirror it closely.

This is a really weird statement full of all kinds of assumptions and over-simplifications.

 

[S E P H]

No Hishon in the top 30?

I gotta admit that their top 10s is very accurate.

 

[Kevin Forbes]

the thread is about what the final ISS rankings where in the past 4 years, and how close they were to predicting the top 30 players with regards to the actual NHL selections.

If that's the case, I think you're reading ISS's rankings incorrectly. They're not in the business of trying to predict the draft.

 

[Tigers1992]

If that's the case, I think you're reading ISS's rankings incorrectly. They're not in the business of trying to predict the draft.

Exactly.

Most scouting companies rank who they think will be the top players in the NHL. They dont mock or make assumptions as to who will go where. They are ranking who they think will be the best NHLer's.

Now I have no love for ISS since Hyman bought it to push his kid, but they still are a fairly accurate group with a smart, hard working staff.

As someone who scouts 15 year olds, I can say, its extremely difficult to project out where players will be in 4-5 years.

 

[Granlund2Pulkkinen*]

ISS is rankings not predictions... there's a difference.

 

[leoleo3535]

People are confused at what various services provide.

Some rank players with numbers....1 thru 100 etc to indicate where they believe the player will be drafted.
Some rank (with numbers) who they believe will be the best NHL player....2, 3, 5 years down the road.

ie- I believe Joe Blow will be the best player 5 years from now....I rank him #1.
I fully realize he will likely be drafted 15-20.
I am not attempting to predict who EDM will select....I am ranking who I believe will be the best pro.

 

[Tigers1992]

People are confused at what various services provide.

Some rank players with numbers....1 thru 100 etc to indicate where they believe the player will be drafted.
Some rank (with numbers) who they believe will be the best NHL player....2, 3, 5 years down the road.

ie- I believe Joe Blow will be the best player 5 years from now....I rank him #1.
I fully realize he will likely be drafted 15-20.
I am not attempting to predict who EDM will select....I am ranking who I believe will be the best pro.

In my mind thats what it should be. I think some companies loose sight that its about projecting who will be the best player in the NHL, not trying to perdict who will be picked in the top 30.

 

[Brock Anton]

Wow had no idea Brandon Sutter was #30 in their final rankings....

 

[Pulkkinen]

Pos | Name | ISS Rank | Dif
1| Taylor Hall |1|-
2| Tyler Seguin |2|-
3| Erik Gudbranson |7| +4
4| Ryan Johansen |8| +4
5| Nino Niederreiter |6| +1
6| Brett Connolly |13| +7
7| Jeff Skinner |9| +2
8| Alexander Burmistrov |14| +6
9| Mikael Granlund |15| +6
10| Dylan McIlrath |NR| NR

Pos | Name | ISS Rank | Dif
1| John Tavares |1|-
2| Victor Hedman |3| +1
3| Matt Duchene |2| -1
4| Evander Kane |5| +1
5| Brayden Schenn |6| +1
6| Oliver Ekman Larsson |9| +3
7| Nazem Kadri |8| +1
8| Scott Glennie |19| +11
9| Jared Cowen |7| -2
10| Magnus Paajarvi |4| -6

Pos | Name | ISS Rank | Dif
1| Steven Stamkos |1|-
2| Drew Doughty |4| +2
3| Zach Bogosian |2| -1
4| Alex Pietrangelo |5| +1
5| Luke Schenn |6| +1
6| Nikita Filatov |3| -3
7| Colin Wilson |8| +1
8| Mikkel Boedker |7| -1
9| Josh Bailey |10| +1
10| Cody Hodgson |9| -1

Pos | Name | ISS Rank | Dif
1| Patrick Kane |1|-
2| James Van Riemsdyk |2|-
3| Kyle Turris |3|-
4| Thomas Hickey |17| +13
5| Karl Alzner |6| +1
6| Sam Gagner |7| +1
7| Jakub Voracek |5| -2
8| Zach Hamill |16| +8
9| Logan Couture |13| +4
10| Keaton Ellerby |9| -1

It seems that 2008 was the most accurate year. All the players that ISS Ranked at his Top 10, went at Top 10 at the NHL Draft, despite some minor variations at the order. 2009 was close, with Scott Glennie as the only suprise. At 2010, Dylan McIlrath made his way to the Top 10 despite being unranked, and 2007 was the opposite way, as Maksim Mayorov went outside the Top 30, before being ranked at Top 10 by ISS.

If we take in consideration the risers (Hickey, Couture, Hamill, Glennie, Connolly, Burmistrov, Granlund, McIlrath) in comparation with the players who went outside (Mayorov, Backlund, Kulikov, Tarasenko, Gormley, Fowler) who was right? Maybe it's too early to determine the 2010 promotion, but Granlund and Tarasenko made a great progression, Fowler and Kulikov became NHL Regulars, Couture is in the race for the Calder and Burmistrov is making his way in Atlanta.
​

 

[Qvist]

then why even make a top 30 list if you can only look good for the top 10 picks? Gee, I think we all can do that.

the point of this is to see just how accurate they have been for the entire top 30, something that is justifiable and is an honest question.

The ISS Top 30 isn't an attempt to guess how the draft will turn out. It is ISS' opinion of how that year's prospects rank against each other. Every other scouting organisation will have a different opinion, and a different list. Hence, ISS' list does not, cannot and should not correspond to the outcome of the draft. Which means that the whole premiss of this thread is ludicruous, and as a consequence the discussion is pointless. The "accuracy" you're trying to investigate is a non-existing issue.

 

[CoolburnIsGone]

The ISS Top 30 isn't an attempt to guess how the draft will turn out. It is ISS' opinion of how that year's prospects rank against each other. Every other scouting organisation will have a different opinion, and a different list. Hence, ISS' list does not, cannot and should not correspond to the outcome of the draft. Which means that the whole premiss of this thread is ludicruous, and as a consequence the discussion is pointless. The "accuracy" you're trying to investigate is a non-existing issue.

Well the thread itself was an interesting look but you're right. The scouting services aren't doing a "mock" of the 1st round. They're ranking the prospects according to their opinions. Heck you dont need to look at ISS or any scouting service to see that drafting in the 1st round can go wrong when compared to the rankings. I can remember guys like Benoit Pouliot, Gilbert Brule, Kyle Turris, etc were ranked high by everyone and we're still waiting for them to produce while guys like Statsny, Krejci, Weber, etc are drafted in the 2nd round and are franchise-type players. The only thing this thread did for me was to highlight the fact that....

RANKINGS =/= MOCK DRAFT

 

[Andrew Knoll]

It's pretty impressive that a rankings list performs on par with draft prognostications, at least in the 2008 example above.