Irish Blues said:
1. I'd ignore the "anti-Blues bias" comment.
2. Which weaknesses has he still not overcome in your opinion, aside from size?
1. Fair enough, I probably should ignore it, but it's one of my particular pet peeves.
2. Well, primarily it is size, and whether or not he has what it takes to overcome it and put up numbers in the pros. There are always guys that score well in college that aren't able to translate that to the NHL. There are of course, also guys like Marty St. Louis and Jason Blake who do. But look at the developmental paths of guys like them, and you get an idea of what I mean. Both of these guys weren't even drafted, and Marty had great numbers in college as a freshman. Jason Blake did also, but he was also a bit older by the time he was playing college hockey. But Jason Blake, even after putting up 69pts in 38 games for UND, was still traded by the team that signed him for a 5th rounder. Obviously a lot of teams are probably kicking themselves for not throwing at least a 9th rounder at these guys, but the point is that this is how teams and scouts tend to view undersized college players.
I'm not saying it's right or wrong, or who is the best prospect, or who will have the best career. I'm not a scout, nor do I presume to be. What I am saying is that Oshie's accomplishments, while impressive, have likely not proven enough for him to leapfrog players drafted ahead of him in the eyes of the scouts and GMs that picked ahead of St Louis. For the most part, ahead of him were guys who either play goal/defense, have a higher upside, or are also developing quite nicely. As for the goal/defense question, I think it'd take quite a bit to get a team to go forward when they have a goalie/defenseman they had their hearts set on. The guys that have not shown as much since being drafted, like Hanzal, Skille or Pokulok, were noted as projects with high upsides, and that they haven't developed as quickly is unlikely to be a reason for concern to the teams that drafted them. Then of course, there are a lot of guys that have shown they are at comparable levels of development, so there's no reason for Oshie to leapfrog them, as the teams that drafted them is likely still just as happy with the pick as they were on draft day.
Though, I suppose it depends on how we're framing the original question. If we're looking at it as how most people/teams had the players ranked before the draft, and now Oshie should be ranked higher, then sure I agree, he's moved up. At the time of the draft most thought he was taken too high and now he looks like a solid pick. But I've been looking at it as guys whose draft position would move up/down if the draft were redone today. And for someone who was viewed as being taken too high, it takes a lot for them to move up. Anything short of dominance (which Oshie has not done) is simply not enough to get a team to change it's mind a mere 6months after the draft.
Perhaps that ignores the intention of the thread, but I doubt there'd be much movement in the first round or two, the only significant movers would be guys taken in the later rounds who were less known and have since broken out. I suppose it's similar to Islanders prospect Blake Comeau, who at the draft was thought to be a third liner at best, and was generally viewed as a stretch when the Islanders drafted him early in the second round. Since the draft he's started putting up much better numbers in juniors, and was an alternate captain and the leading scorer for team Canada's gold medal this year, so he looks like a solid pick. But I suspect many teams still question his upside and whether or not he has the skills to be a scorer in the NHL. And if the draft were redone, I doubt he'd sneak into the first round. Similarly, Oshie looks like a solid pick, but I doubt he moves up.
Seph - outstanding post, I really appreciate it. Just a fantastic job of answering the question, I can't say much more. The only thing I can really throw back is that Oshie may get more out of his talent because of the intensity he plays with than guys ahead of him who may have more talent but don't make use of it all.
