2005 Draft--McKenzie speculates

[hawksfan50]

See Bob McKenzie's comments on the 2004 draft crop not having as much leverage
to get the big bucks even though they are under the "old rules" and also his specualtion on what happens to the 2005 draft--it of course won't be held if no CBA in place prior to the scheduled draft date in Ottawa--BUT McKenzie finally states what I and others have posted on this board before--IF there is no upcoming season due to lock-out (entire season cancelled) AND if they get a new CBA done in time BEFORE the scheduled date for the 2005 draft,THEN we get the same draft order as for the 2004 draft based on the finnishes of 2003/02 (except for traded picks of course) AND unless changed by a new lotto draw --he states he thinks there will be a new lotto (WASH won't get the #1 again based on its lotto win for 2004 but only if it wins another lotto)...The same bottom 5 teams (PIT,CHI,WASH,NASH,PHX) get a shot at winning Crosby in this scenario........I of course live in Ottawa and would be in the stands anyway for this draft--nothing woud give greater pleasure than for SC to be a Blackhawks' player --but alas I know the hockey gods just will never let it be so...so I'm still prepared for a selection at #2 or cursed luck again #3 .......but we'll get sonmething very good anyway (Brule?)...HOWEVER ---more likely is that no CBA gets done and the draft is cancelled...McKenzie does not speculate on what happens in that event --but I will:

If they get a CBA done later than the scheduled time for the June 2005 draft,and they play either a full or partial season in 2005/06 --then the finishes of that full or partial season + a new lotto derived from it, set the order for the 2006 draft which will either be its normal separate entity or a "combo draft" inclusive of the post-poned 2005 draft;IF however it is a separate draft--the status of the post-poned 2005 draft would likely revert back to the draft order and new lotto as derived from the 2003/04 season ...the NHL has as yet made no definitive comment on which scenario (separate drafts or 1 combo draft) would apply.........in the event that a 2nd full season (2005/06) is locked out but a CBA gets done in time for the June 2006 draft date (whether 1 combo or 2 separate drafts go) --then again it would revert back to the order as derived from the 2003/04 finishes + new lotto.....

Another scenario is that the new CBA just scraps the draft altogether and allows a free for all --but if you sign any kid he's under your CAP --so probably no rush to sign any but a few kids at 18 --most teams will wait till 20 for Jrs or later for euros and NCAA guys ......it will be sign just those you are certain are ready to compete for an NHL or AHL job NOW --as you fit them into your CAP = a totally free-er market..

We will have to see how this all plays out....all I know is my Hawks won't get Crosby --either through lotto luck or in a free-for all bid...c'est la vie!

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[Juan]

In the absence of a CBA, I see absolutely nothing stopping NHL teams from signing whatever young players they want, whenever they want, on whatever terms they want. A "free-for-all", if you will.

As it is, the only thing that saves a pro sports draft from being a violation of anti-trust law is the fact that it is collectively bargained between labor and management. Any rule, by-law or agreement that the NHL teams might unilaterally put in place to prevent such a "free-for-all" would, on the surface, be illegal.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

See Bob McKenzie's comments on the 2004 draft crop not having as much leverage
to get the big bucks even though they are under the "old rules" and also his specualtion on what happens to the 2005 draft--it of course won't be held if no CBA in place prior to the scheduled draft date in Ottawa--BUT McKenzie finally states what I and others have posted on this board before--IF there is no upcoming season due to lock-out (entire season cancelled) AND if they get a new CBA done in time BEFORE the scheduled date for the 2005 draft,THEN we get the same draft order as for the 2004 draft based on the finnishes of 2003/02 (except for traded picks of course) AND unless changed by a new lotto draw --he states he thinks there will be a new lotto (WASH won't get the #1 again based on its lotto win for 2004 but only if it wins another lotto)...The same bottom 5 teams (PIT,CHI,WASH,NASH,PHX) get a shot at winning Crosby in this scenario........I of course live in Ottawa and would be in the stands anyway for this draft--nothing woud give greater pleasure than for SC to be a Blackhawks' player --but alas I know the hockey gods just will never let it be so...so I'm still prepared for a selection at #2 or cursed luck again #3 .......but we'll get sonmething very good anyway (Brule?)...HOWEVER ---more likely is that no CBA gets done and the draft is cancelled...McKenzie does not speculate on what happens in that event --but I will:

If they get a CBA done later than the scheduled time for the June 2005 draft,and they play either a full or partial season in 2005/06 --then the finishes of that full or partial season + a new lotto derived from it, set the order for the 2006 draft which will either be its normal separate entity or a "combo draft" inclusive of the post-poned 2005 draft;IF however it is a separate draft--the status of the post-poned 2005 draft would likely revert back to the draft order and new lotto as derived from the 2003/04 season ...the NHL has as yet made no definitive comment on which scenario (separate drafts or 1 combo draft) would apply.........in the event that a 2nd full season (2005/06) is locked out but a CBA gets done in time for the June 2006 draft date (whether 1 combo or 2 separate drafts go) --then again it would revert back to the order as derived from the 2003/04 finishes + new lotto.....

Another scenario is that the new CBA just scraps the draft altogether and allows a free for all --but if you sign any kid he's under your CAP --so probably no rush to sign any but a few kids at 18 --most teams will wait till 20 for Jrs or later for euros and NCAA guys ......it will be sign just those you are certain are ready to compete for an NHL or AHL job NOW --as you fit them into your CAP = a totally free-er market..

We will have to see how this all plays out....all I know is my Hawks won't get Crosby --either through lotto luck or in a free-for all bid...c'est la vie!

As a Pittsburgh fan this would guarentee no less than the second pick (after taking Malkin and Fleury the two years before) and a 50/50 chance at Crosby. I would not mind at all losing the entire season, we would be loaded once hockey started up again. Add a hard or even soft cap and revenue sharing and Lord Stanley is well within reach. Gooooooooooooooo lockout.

Picture this down the middle:

Fleury
Malkin
Crosby
Mario

geeeeeeeeeeez.

 

[NYR469]

it would surprise me if they used the same draft order considering my stupid effing rangers won the final game of the year to finish 1 point out the #5 spot...so instead of just blowing your own nuts off with a shotgun, they might get a chance to reattach them and blow them off again...great

 

[YellHockey*]

If there's no season, there's no draft.

There's little chance a CBA would be worked out before fall 2005 if next season is cancelled. Why would one season cave in the late spring? There's no incentive for either side to do anything until the fall because there's no benefit to give in and then wait three/four months for next season.

 

[Sticky*]

If there's no season, there's no draft.

There's little chance a CBA would be worked out before fall 2005 if next season is cancelled. Why would one season cave in the late spring? There's no incentive for either side to do anything until the fall because there's no benefit to give in and then wait three/four months for next season.

That's not true, just because there might not be an NHL season, the junior leagues will be in full swing, and if an agreement is worked out before the draft is scheduled to take place, then I would imagine that the draft will still take place.

 

[NYR469]

If there's no season, there's no draft.

There's little chance a CBA would be worked out before fall 2005 if next season is cancelled. Why would one season cave in the late spring? There's no incentive for either side to do anything until the fall because there's no benefit to give in and then wait three/four months for next season.

during the last lockout, the cutoff date was set sometime in december as the absolutely latest date to reach a deal for a partial season to be played...that would mean that there would be a full 6 months between the cancelation of the season and the draft...

and the benefit of reaching a deal during that period is to avoid a potential workstoppage into the following year

 

[YellHockey*]

and the benefit of reaching a deal during that period is to avoid a potential workstoppage into the following year

The CBA negotiations are like a game of chicken. Both sides are trying to see who will blink first. If it becomes apparent that there will be no season next year, no one has any reason to give in until there is something else to lose (i.e. a second lost season). If one side was going to give in, they would do so just before a season would be lost. Otherwise, they just wait until the fall to give in.

 

[Chyzowski]

But if there's no NHL season, its because there isn't an agreement. Without an agreement, there's no draft.

Deadline pressure seems to be a major catalyst in contract negotations. The next deadline is settling early enough to salvage a meaningful season, which is probably January. If they can't save the season, there's no longer any deadline pressure on either side to cause either side to cave in and unless they are close, negotations would likley slow down as they move toward the next deadline (the start of the following season). Whether the juniors are still playing or not won't have a bearing on the negotations.

Without a CBA, there's no season, so the "free-for-all" scenario shouldn't be able to happen either. Also if the owners are trying to restrain each other's spending and establish "cost certainty", why would they open things up to a systems where the wealthiest teams would bid against each other for the best players and thereby raise salaries. The draft prevents bidding and constrains team spending.

 

[capman29]

One thing you people fail to grasp is that the new CBA could happen and there could be no draft. Talent then would go to the highest bidder and then where will ownership be with cost containment. This fact alone will in the end make sure that there is no hard cap that is wanted by the owners. They try to play to much hardball and see where it gets them.In the end both sides will agree that a soft cap and a tax is the only way out of this mess created by ownership.

 

[Juan]

But if there's no NHL season, its because there isn't an agreement. Without an agreement, there's no draft.

Deadline pressure seems to be a major catalyst in contract negotations. The next deadline is settling early enough to salvage a meaningful season, which is probably January. If they can't save the season, there's no longer any deadline pressure on either side to cause either side to cave in and unless they are close, negotations would likley slow down as they move toward the next deadline (the start of the following season). Whether the juniors are still playing or not won't have a bearing on the negotations.

Without a CBA, there's no season, so the "free-for-all" scenario shouldn't be able to happen either. Also if the owners are trying to restrain each other's spending and establish "cost certainty", why would they open things up to a systems where the wealthiest teams would bid against each other for the best players and thereby raise salaries. The draft prevents bidding and constrains team spending.

Read my post again.

BUT FOR collective bargaining, the draft is illegal. So the owners unilaterally colluding to "restrain each other's spending" without a CBA in place would invite hundreds of anti-trust suits that they would surely lose.

So unless the owners can make a non-verbal agreement by way of ESP, there would be NOTHING stopping an NHL team from signing the best undrafted junior it can find on September 16.

 

[Chyzowski]

Juan -

I agree with you completely that in the absence of a CBA, a draft woud be illegal. The players agree to the draft as part of that agreement. Without an agreement, its just illegal restraint of free trade by the owners. My point is that if there's no prospect of a season on the horizon (and uncertainty over whether the eventual settlement will include payroll restraints on the pro roster), I don't see owners racing out to incur additional salary liabilities. I guess if they can get the junior cheap enough, it's worth the gamble/investment, though.

 

[Sammy*]

One thing you people fail to grasp is that the new CBA could happen and there could be no draft. Talent then would go to the highest bidder and then where will ownership be with cost containment. This fact alone will in the end make sure that there is no hard cap that is wanted by the owners. They try to play to much hardball and see where it gets them.In the end both sides will agree that a soft cap and a tax is the only way out of this mess created by ownership.

\Theres about as much chance of this scenario happening as there is of me getting drafted #1 next year.