2005 Draft Discussion

[Jeff Goldblum]

I will go on record now as saying I can't imagine a worse scenario for Caps fans than Crosby in Pittsburgh. Anywhere else, literally. I had my share of Mario and Jagr.

As a Pens fan, I'd also like to say that if we don't get Crosby, put him ANYWHERE except Washington. Anywhere. Ovechkin-Crosby would make our domination of the Caps in the playoffs that much harder.

I miss that rivalry. It'll be good to see these two teams back at eachother's throats in the playoffs in a few years.

 

[Old Hickory]

Hmmmmmmmmmm

 

[KallioWeHardlyKnewYe]

Yes, and I am pretty sure that all you experts were plugging Calgary at the beginning of last season.

Ah, you've found the occasional exception to the rule. I admit that I had no clue Calgary would do as well as they did.

But I had a pretty good feeling that, for instance, Detroit, Toronto, Dallas, Boston, Montreal, St. Louis, New Jersey, Colorado, Ottawa, Vancouver and Philadelphia would be playoff teams.

Also, I accurately guessed that Pittsburgh, Florida, Columbus, Atlanta, Carolina, Chicago, Buffalo, and the Rangers weren't going to be playoff teams.

In addition, I figured Edmonton, the Islanders, San Jose, Minnesota and Nashville would be right about in the middle.

By my count, I came pretty damn close to accurately placing 24 of the leagues 30 teams in the 03-04 season, with San Jose, Washington, Calgary, Tampa Bay, Pheonix and LA all doing better or worse than what I expected.

I'd like to think I'm Nostradamus, but I'm not. The difference between good and bad in the NHL isn't quite the crapshoot that some people want to portray it as.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

I hope they make it so any team can get the first pick and a team like the pens or caps can fall more then 2 spots.

 

[Morbo]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the big markets get more of a shot at Crosby than is expected at the moment.

 

[JR#9*]

I would be stunned if this weren't partially rigged to get Crosby to one of the big cities -- NYC, CHI, or LA.
.

It will be a tragedy for the NHL to have a kid who may be able to help restore the NHL to a large degree wind up in a Nashville or even a Washington or Pitt.

The NHL needs this kid in a big market in the worst way and I for one also hope Chicago doesn't get rewarded for running their franchise like they do.

 

[speeds]

I hope they make it so any team can get the first pick and a team like the pens or caps can fall more then 2 spots.

who knows what they'll do, but I don't have a problem with a system where any team can pick anywhere from 1st to 30th, with obviously the worse teams from 03/4 having a better chance of being drawn.

One thing I do think they could do though, to help balance it out, is perhaps snake the draft order?

IE. If you win the lottery you pick #1 and #60 (assuming for this that there are no compensatory picks), and if you are the unfortunate team picking 30th overall, then you also get to start the 2nd round at 31st overall.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Crosby in habland? That would be great.

 

[Cole Caulifield]

I'd like to think I'm Nostradamus, but I'm not. The difference between good and bad in the NHL isn't quite the crapshoot that some people want to portray it as.

No not really, but then factor in one NHL year of development lost for younsters like Ryder, Ribeiro, Raycroft, Kovalchuk, Malone, Spezza, etc

Factor in one more year of development for prospects who had yet to make the big show but who will most likely be ready come next season.

Factor in all the old vets retiring, aging one year.

Factor in teams that had the chance to build a winning/losing atmosphere and gain/lose confidence during the 03-04 season and who will have to start over again.

Factor in the completely insane amount of free agents that will be on the market when the NHL resumes.

Then for good mesure just add all the surprise teams in one regular year (6 by your count) and then yes it becomes a HUUUUUUGE crapshoot for you to guess who's who at this point.

It's one thing to be a blatant homer about what you wish to happen. 99% of us are, and hope the best option is chosen for their team. But don't go ahead trying to rationalize it.

 

[John Flyers Fan]

who knows what they'll do, but I don't have a problem with a system where any team can pick anywhere from 1st to 30th, with obviously the worse teams from 03/4 having a better chance of being drawn.

One thing I do think they could do though, to help balance it out, is perhaps snake the draft order?

IE. If you win the lottery you pick #1 and #60 (assuming for this that there are no compensatory picks), and if you are the unfortunate team picking 30th overall, then you also get to start the 2nd round at 31st overall.

IMO the fairest way to do it is to have a complete lottery, Tampa has equal chance as Pittsburgh to get Crosby ... but then have this draft snake .. 1-30, 30-1 etc.

 

[Cole Caulifield]

IMO the fairest way to do it is to have a complete lottery, Tampa has equal chance as Pittsburgh to get Crosby ... but then have this draft snake .. 1-30, 30-1 etc.

I agree

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Crosby in (my town). That would be great.
Folks in 29 towns are gonna be pissed...

And the idea that it would be a shame if Crosby landed in Nashville or some other backwater NHL town is ridiculous. First, can we separate our opinions about how this next draft should be conducted from the fact that Sidney's in it? Doubtful. Second, is it possible that Crosby could build a market all by himself? The only place he could go that would generate mass appeal/broaden media support for the league is the Rangers. (And I'm pretty sure none of us wants to see that. )

Edit: "Backwater" used only for effect.

 

[A Good Flying Bird*]

Finally, some definitive word on the draft:

The draft

The cancellation of the season does not necessarily mean there won't be a draft in June. There is time to get a new CBA in place before then, which would allow the draft to go on as planned. However, there is little motivation to get a deal done by then, so the draft is unlikely to happen on schedule. Agents are gauging the legality of having their draft-eligible players declared unrestricted free agents if there isn't a draft. So, phenom Sidney Crosby, for example, could end up going to the highest bidder instead of the team with the top pick.


No matter the result of that legal wrangling, a draft must be held before the next NHL season begins. The NHL's Bill Daly has said the order of the draft would be decided in a 30-team lottery weighted on the results of the 2003-04 season.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nhl/story/3410810

As a ps, this does guarentee that my Pens have the best chance at Crosby, now all that is to be determined is how good that chance is. Anywhere close to the standard 48.5% chance or far lower? I would have to guess that it would have to be at least 25% chance or better and I can not imagine Tampa Bay for instance being given better than a token chance. But the final statement on the draft above opens a lot to speculation.



I am guessing that a few details have been left out of the above, and that they will not allow a team to rise or fall more than say 10 spaces as that would make sense. If not I am not especially happy. No matter the wieghting there is no way that having the bottom five teams potentially fall to 30 is anywhere near reflective of playing out a season. None of those teams would likely rise above bottom 10 status. And top five, six or seven teams? Ending up worst or anywhere near even middle of the pack? That is a joke. I have to believe that they will tier how far you can fall at least.

Why should the bottom team from 16 months ago get the best shot at Crosby?
Especially now that the top teams are going to have to shed all their salary.
They should put 30 balls in a machine and pull them out in order.
Pittsburg or Carolina shouldn't have a better chance at Crosby than Detroit or Toronto.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

No not really, but then factor in one NHL year of development lost for younsters like Ryder, Ribeiro, Raycroft, Kovalchuk, Malone, Spezza, etc

Factor in one more year of development for prospects who had yet to make the big show but who will most likely be ready come next season.

Factor in all the old vets retiring, aging one year.

Factor in teams that had the chance to build a winning/losing atmosphere and gain/lose confidence during the 03-04 season and who will have to start over again.

Factor in the completely insane amount of free agents that will be on the market when the NHL resumes.

Then for good mesure just add all the surprise teams in one regular year (6 by your count) and then yes it becomes a HUUUUUUGE crapshoot for you to guess who's who at this point.

It's one thing to be a blatant homer about what you wish to happen. 99% of us are, and hope the best option is chosen for their team. But don't go ahead trying to rationalize it.

The '06 draft will factor all of those things in. We're talking about the '05 draft. There's not going to be a season to base it on. All of a sudden, fans of recently-good teams figure "My team could have finished among the bottom teams in the league?" And with a straight face?

 

[NYIsles1*]

It will be a tragedy for the NHL to have a kid who may be able to help restore the NHL to a large degree wind up in a Nashville or even a Washington or Pitt.

Considering all that obscurity an 80 million dollar Ranger team and all it's star players have enjoyed why would Crosby be any more than superstar #25-30 in a market where the media pays little attention to hockey in the first place?

In a place like Nashville he would be the next Gretzky, in Pittsburgh he would be the next Mario.

Yorio's article used old quotes, even last weekend the formula being considered according to Michael Russo in the Florida press (much more credible journalist) is the last three years avg record combined with a weighted lottery that includes each team was what was going to be considered.

 

[A Good Flying Bird*]

IMO the fairest way to do it is to have a complete lottery, Tampa has equal chance as Pittsburgh to get Crosby ... but then have this draft snake .. 1-30, 30-1 etc.

Yep. Fantasy style.

The NHL landscape has changed immensely.
Detroit had the best regular season record last year. But IMO, they'd be battling for a playoff spot this year.
And now, with some of the top teams being forced to cut budgets, much of the advantage they enjoyed several seasons ago is gone.

 

[Garp]

I think the best way to do it is a weighted, but open lottery. You can move up and down 30 ranks, but Teams like pitts get more chances than teams like Tampa

 

[FlyersGuy69]

I would be stunned if this weren't partially rigged to get Crosby to one of the big cities -- NYC, CHI, or LA.

or Philly?

that would be sweet! Crosby, Carter and Richards down the middle...WOW!

 

[JR#9*]

And the idea that it would be a shame if Crosby landed in Nashville or some other backwater NHL town is ridiculous.
league is the Rangers. (And I'm pretty sure none of us wants to see that. )

.

So you think Crosby landing in Nashville wouldn'y be a shame or a terrible thing for the NHL???

At this point in time where the NHL is at it would be a disaster to waste the most anticipated phenom since Mario/Lindros to wind up a a market such as a Nashville just as it's a watse to have Kovalchuk/Heatley in Atlanta.

These are not and NEVER will be strong hockey markets and with the league in dire need of something positive this would be nothing short of a catastrophe.

 

[FREE DENTAL CARE]

Isn't draft part of the (now defunct) CBA?

Isn't the draft a part of the "defunct" CBA? What would give the league the "authority" to conduct a draft? Would the NHLPA recognize the legitimacy of such a draft if conducted by the NHL? Just asking?

 

[John Flyers Fan]

Isn't the draft a part of the "defunct" CBA? What would give the league the "authority" to conduct a draft? Would the NHLPA recognize the legitimacy of such a draft if conducted by the NHL? Just asking?

Yes, that's why no draft will be held until a new CBA is signed.

 

[txpd]

It will be a tragedy for the NHL to have a kid who may be able to help restore the NHL to a large degree wind up in a Nashville or even a Washington or Pitt.

The NHL needs this kid in a big market in the worst way and I for one also hope Chicago doesn't get rewarded for running their franchise like they do.

I think you need to face the likelyhood that Crosby will end up on a very bad hockey team. Or at least a team that was very bad in 2003-04. That means that the Blackhawks and the Rangers will have a reasonable chance to get the guy.

On the otherhand I don't think that having Kovulchuk and Heatley(pre accident) in Atlanta was a tragedy for the NHL in anyway. They are huge NHL names and fans want to see them play. With Bob Hartley as coach and a new CBA allowing for so much more player movement, that could be a headline making team next year.
At this point I don't think its a tragedy for the NHL that Vinny Lecavalier is in Tampa Bay, do you? I think that has worked out well.

Frankly the idea of Crosby and Ovechkin on the same team, like Heatley and Kovulchuk would do something that the league desperately needs. It would drive interest in the 15 or 20 NHL teams that fall off the national radar. Because they have no identity they have no drawing ability on tv and create stars much slower
because of their lack of attention. People will watch the Flyers regardless. The Thrashers and Capitals with two superstars each will create the kind of market throught the league that the entire NHL needs from teams like Washington, Tampa, Atlanta, Pheonix.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Isn't the draft a part of the "defunct" CBA? What would give the league the "authority" to conduct a draft? Would the NHLPA recognize the legitimacy of such a draft if conducted by the NHL? Just asking?

The draft will not take place until the new CBA is signed. If after June it would happen soon after. The speculation above and elsewhere in other threads presumes a new CBA, and speculates 'then what?'

 

[FREE DENTAL CARE]

I guess my question was how the NHL can make a declaration about how the draft will be conducted in the absence of a new CBA. Assuming that the draft will be part of the new CBA. Won't the "draft clause" in the new CBA determine how this draft will be conducted? Is that clear?

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Completly agree. Without an actual quote from Daly, this is pure speculation.

Take the article with whatever grain of salt you wish to, just like any other articles and/or quotes. I remember some that said that a new CBA was a done deal not too long ago, widely reported.

However this is not 'pure speculation', she quotes Daly in the article as having 'said' the above. Pure speculation is different than what you claim, that she is wrong.

BTW, I have seen in the recent past past the NHL saying that the options considered included three that they mentioned, including averaging over several years and the option in this thread. I need to find the quote though and do not currently have the time.