A couple things. Theres only an average 18GP elapsed so its too little to extrapolate too much on that. Factor in that there was no exhibition season and the first 5 games of the season were pretty random tosses. Any game could go anyway.
That's certainly a fair point but it's got to be balanced with reality. I agree the first 5 games didn't tell a lot but they weren't irrelevant either. We've seen some consistent themes. I agree things can change but when you are essentially a 3rd into the season it's reasonable to start looking at these things. They have been the worst teams, it's a fact. I'm not saying the playoffs are set or for sure the other 3 will get worse and Edmonton better but common sense based on the current reality suggests it's likely. At this point we all know Tor, Mtl, Win are harder outs than Van, Ott. Calgary has been garbage but it's early and they've played the least. I'm not writing them off. Like I said they affect the results the least other than in relation to Winnipeg who we should all have a solid grasp on (we're better but goaltending evens it out).
Nucks have also played the most games in the NHL. While this doesn't help their positioning it sucks for them that they started out without JT Miller. They've had a tough schedule, a ton of travel. For the Nucks its the most GP, and the most travel miles. Even in an all Canada conference a ton of travel. Far more than any club if you happen to be the Nucks.
It's a tough break but the Oilers have played all of two less games. One of the inverse truths you could also take from this is that Ottawa and Vancouver have had tough schedules, and that's fair, but that's the reality of the North division and you need to survive in those games like the Oilers have (and without their co-starter or a viable backup). Vancouver is way down and they are 37.5% of the way through the season, it's a massive hill to climb. They've got the chance to go hard after us with the games remaining but with their goaltending being no better now and our team being quite frankly better everywhere else I don't see them as a massive threat. They could be, but I've seen nothing to make me think the loss of Markstrom can be filled by Demko and Holtby nor is Schmidt on his off hand as good as a HEALTHY Tanev, which he was last year. The scenario of pity you are describing only goes to show that you too agree that playing them early has been an advantage for the teams doing so.
The comparison isn't proof of anything being predictable but it is a direct correlation to actuality and that represents the best chance of providing future predictability. It's a good indication that Toronto getting to play Ottawa 7 times and Vancouver 3 is likely helping them in establishing themselves at the top. I don't know about you but I'd rather play Ottawa-Vancouver-Calgary a combined 12 times than Toronto-Winnipeg-Montreal a combined 11. That would have been true in the offseason too and that would still be true if Calgary was fighting for the division lead.
As for Calgary to me it looks like Giordano has taken a big step back and they can't replace him internally as much as they keep hoping Andersson will. They lack the star power to thrive in a division with elite talent up front as they can't shut them down nor match them offensively. I do think they've got excellent depth up front and some good players that could give them more so I am in no way stating they will certainly struggle going forward but thus far they unquestionably have. It might even get the coach fired or a big name traded here soon.
