Prospect Info: #20 Dennis Cholowski, D-Chilliwack, BCHL

Claypool

Registered User
Jan 12, 2009
13,670
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Then what are the Red Wings doing wrong?

Drafting the wrong guy? Pretty simple. There were 68 defenseman taken in 2010 and only 10 of them played over 100 NHL games so far. We're talking about 15% of defenseman drafted become NHL-caliber players, and maybe 2 or 3 of them are considered stars (Faulk, Fowler, Klingberg). So the Red Wings had a 4% chance of drafting a star defenseman. Good luck.
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
22,756
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Cleveland
My opinion: the Wings have developed a weird habit of drafting guys specifically because they don't have to be signed for a long time. They've started to do this even if it involves passing up a superior talent who would have to be signed in 2 years. I think the logic is: that college or European guy has extra years to develop, so he could potentially have a higher ceiling because of the extra development time. But I'm not sure it's the brilliant plan they think it is, because they end up drafting guys much further from the NHL.

Having to sign a guy in two years instead of four would also really screw up the development paths planned out for all of those kids we've already lined up who are knocking on the door. /sarcasm

yeah, I'm just tired of/don't like the sarcasm smilie much.

Drafting the wrong guy? Pretty simple. There were 68 defenseman taken in 2010 and only 10 of them played over 100 NHL games so far. We're talking about 15% of defenseman drafted become NHL-caliber players, and maybe 2 or 3 of them are considered stars (Faulk, Fowler, Klingberg). So the Red Wings had a 4% chance of drafting a star defenseman. Good luck.

All the more reason to recognize that ufa to be like Quincey and Helm would have had more value in the picks they would have brought back in deals at the deadline than in whatever they gave us in the drubbing we took from Tampa. Give the kids 3/4 of the season to eat ice time in GR, then deal some vets at the deadline to make room for them to play in Detroit down the stretch while putting some extra bullets in the clip to try to hit the target on draft day.

I'm still hoping we deal some of Smith, Miller, Ott, and Vanek off next February to get what we can. I know it won't happen, but I'll be cheering it if it does.
 

BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
6,160
1,377
London, ON
My opinion: the Wings have developed a weird habit of drafting guys specifically because they don't have to be signed for a long time. They've started to do this even if it involves passing up a superior talent who would have to be signed in 2 years. I think the logic is: that college or European guy has extra years to develop, so he could potentially have a higher ceiling because of the extra development time. But I'm not sure it's the brilliant plan they think it is, because they end up drafting guys much further from the NHL.

Again low draft position = worse pick.

You make it seem like we are passing on sure things.
 

Rzombo4 prez

Registered User
May 17, 2012
5,980
2,698
My opinion: the Wings have developed a weird habit of drafting guys specifically because they don't have to be signed for a long time. They've started to do this even if it involves passing up a superior talent who would have to be signed in 2 years. I think the logic is: that college or European guy has extra years to develop, so he could potentially have a higher ceiling because of the extra development time. But I'm not sure it's the brilliant plan they think it is, because they end up drafting guys much further from the NHL.

Who specifically are you thinking about? In terms of drafting defensemen, I feel as if we have taken a lot of CHL guys.

I do feel that we take a lot of guys outside of the CHL who are physically immature. I personally have no issue with this though.
 
Jul 30, 2005
17,660
4,588
I mean, what is location, really
Who specifically are you thinking about? In terms of drafting defensemen, I feel as if we have taken a lot of CHL guys.

I do feel that we take a lot of guys outside of the CHL who are physically immature. I personally have no issue with this though.
I think they do it pretty consistently if you look at not just guys taken in that same round, but guys taken slightly later. They pass up a ton of 2nd/3rd/4th round skilled guys like Cam Dineen several times for total projects.
 

izlez

We need more toe-drags/60
Feb 28, 2012
4,576
3,462
All the more reason to recognize that ufa to be like Quincey and Helm would have had more value in the picks they would have brought back in deals at the deadline than in whatever they gave us in the drubbing we took from Tampa. Give the kids 3/4 of the season to eat ice time in GR, then deal some vets at the deadline to make room for them to play in Detroit down the stretch while putting some extra bullets in the clip to try to hit the target on draft day.

I'm still hoping we deal some of Smith, Miller, Ott, and Vanek off next February to get what we can. I know it won't happen, but I'll be cheering it if it does.

Wait....

You see a statistic that says there's a 15% chance your draft pick turns into an NHL player, and your response is "See, you have to trade your NHL players for draft picks....one of them might even turn into an NHL player!"?
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
14,683
I think they do it pretty consistently if you look at not just guys taken in that same round, but guys taken slightly later. They pass up a ton of 2nd/3rd/4th round skilled guys like Cam Dineen several times for total projects.

I'd say a lot of those skilled guys are projects as well though, just maybe in different ways.

I don't know that we are entirely averse to drafting skill guys, or offense only guys. Saarijarvi just last year is literally that to a T.

And what would you describe Hronek as? I'm optimistic about the kid, and I think he is in a nice situation with Saginaw where he may put up some numbers.

Edit -- Back on topic to Cholowski, I like him better than the defenseman taken before him, and the next one taken after him. Not sure that Stanley or Johansen have the offensive upside I think Cholowski could hit. I know we were rumored to like Stanley, not sure more than Cholowski though. May have just been their guy regardless.
 
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pierre gagnon*

Registered User
Mar 15, 2013
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2
St. Catharines
I know how tall his brother is, you've said that several times by now.

You think Cholowski is better right now? Ok, well I think you would be in the minority there. Fabbro has probably 25 lbs on him, he is playing top pair on Canada for a reason. Better suited right now to face 18-19 year old players. I understand that Chychrun fell, but Fabbro rose because of his WJC performance.

Though I agree with you, all that really matters is who develops more at the end of the day. And that is still to be determined.

Not too many people have seen them play head to head all year. I have been told Cholo is better by someone I trust, who has seen it first hand. We do not know who will be Canada's top pair as the team is not picked, he may well be. I watched those recent games and his play was nothing but average on a losing team.

Canada usually picks players based on the past performances. That team he was on was not the World Junior Championship team but the Under 18 team, that's a bit different. He peaked earlier on a stacked Penticton team which helped his case.

This era does not have a Doughty, Seabrook, Keith playing in major junior so the door is wide open. Shows with how they did last year placing 6th in the Worlds and not winning one game in this recent showcase. Sure he is talented and he will be good for BU and the preds but forget him, Cholo is the Wings guy.

Like I said Cholo ouplayed him in the playoffs when it mattered and out produced him. Lets see in a few years when Cholo gets bigger, Fabbro is 6 feet and 189lbs, Cholo is 6 feet and 170lbs thats 19 lbs difference according to Hockey DB. The average NHL deeman is 6'2 and 209. I hedge my bet on the guy that is a late riser. Its a wait and see game and will be played out over 2 to 4 years. Skill wise I would not worry about the difference, size wise it will even out or be better.
 

Rzombo4 prez

Registered User
May 17, 2012
5,980
2,698
I think they do it pretty consistently if you look at not just guys taken in that same round, but guys taken slightly later. They pass up a ton of 2nd/3rd/4th round skilled guys like Cam Dineen several times for total projects.

I can't buy what you are trying to sell. If you want the Wings to draft more CHL players just state that you want the Wings to draft more CHL players. No offense but there is no obvious superior skill in the mid rounds. Everyone outside of the first round projects as a bottom 6 forward or 4-6 defensemen. Now players certainly have the right to develop beyond their projected ability, but it is very inaccurate to suggest that there is a ton of obvious skill just floating around in the mid to late rounds of the draft every year. Cam Dineen is also every bit as much of a project as anyone else we have taken in the 3rd-7th rounds.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
14,683
We do not know who will be Canada's top pair as the team is not picked, he may well be. I watched those recent games and his play was nothing but average on a losing team.

Sheet on the left is Team Canada. Fabbro is #8.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
14,683
Possibly. Are you saying that nothing can change in the next 4.5 months?

He seems to have the inside track to the top pairing for Team Canada. I don't think they just randomly picked lines and pairings for the showcase.
 
Jul 30, 2005
17,660
4,588
I mean, what is location, really
I can't buy what you are trying to sell. If you want the Wings to draft more CHL players just state that you want the Wings to draft more CHL players. No offense but there is no obvious superior skill in the mid rounds. Everyone outside of the first round projects as a bottom 6 forward or 4-6 defensemen. Now players certainly have the right to develop beyond their projected ability, but it is very inaccurate to suggest that there is a ton of obvious skill just floating around in the mid to late rounds of the draft every year. Cam Dineen is also every bit as much of a project as anyone else we have taken in the 3rd-7th rounds.
I think the Wings draft super raw guys and hope they develop skill. I want them to draft skilled guys and work on rounding them out. Dineen is really skilled, but needs help physically and defensively.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
14,683
Well they are kind of sucking so they should probably change things up lol

Maybe. After the 1st line though, those forwards look waaaaaaaaay worse than usual. Lines 2-4 are pretty pedestrian by Team Canada's standards.

On a side note- Brock Boeser is a beast.
 

Vatican Roulette

Baile de Los Locos
Feb 28, 2002
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Having to sign a guy in two years instead of four would also really screw up the development paths planned out for all of those kids we've already lined up who are knocking on the door. /sarcasm

yeah, I'm just tired of/don't like the sarcasm smilie much.



All the more reason to recognize that ufa to be like Quincey and Helm would have had more value in the picks they would have brought back in deals at the deadline than in whatever they gave us in the drubbing we took from Tampa. Give the kids 3/4 of the season to eat ice time in GR, then deal some vets at the deadline to make room for them to play in Detroit down the stretch while putting some extra bullets in the clip to try to hit the target on draft day.

I'm still hoping we deal some of Smith, Miller, Ott, and Vanek off next February to get what we can. I know it won't happen, but I'll be cheering it if it does.

I'm with ya. I just don't see Holland "throwing in the towel" by trading UFA's.

Young assets or draft picks? That'd be moving forward. Rather make the playoffs, get embarrassed, and sign other vets.

Repeat.
 

Pavels Dog

Registered User
Feb 18, 2013
19,738
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Sweden
I think the Wings draft super raw guys and hope they develop skill. I want them to draft skilled guys and work on rounding them out. Dineen is really skilled, but needs help physically and defensively.
Almost everyone drafted late in the 1st or beyond the 1st round could be categorized as a "super raw guy". But the Wings have never been drafting much with the hope that guys will "develop skill", they've usually gone more for those that have skill but are undersized or lacking in areas such as skating that might be improved by gaining strength.
Cholowski and Hronek for example fit very much the Wings drafting profile. Skilled guys with high ceilings if their physical development goes well.
 

Shaman464

No u
May 1, 2009
10,212
4,422
Boston, MA
Almost everyone drafted late in the 1st or beyond the 1st round could be categorized as a "super raw guy". But the Wings have never been drafting much with the hope that guys will "develop skill", they've usually gone more for those that have skill but are undersized or lacking in areas such as skating that might be improved by gaining strength.
Cholowski and Hronek for example fit very much the Wings drafting profile. Skilled guys with high ceilings if their physical development goes well.

The problem is that Detroit hasn't been able to develop super raw defensemen into anything but bottom pairing guys. Kronwall is the best defeneman to come out of Detroit's system in nearly 2 decades and, coincidentally, was also not a raw talent.

So I won't believe that they can develop a raw defenseman until I see it. And this is why, I believe, a lot of people wanted the players whose ceilings were lower, but floors were much higher. They are harder to screw up.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
14,683
Almost everyone drafted late in the 1st or beyond the 1st round could be categorized as a "super raw guy". But the Wings have never been drafting much with the hope that guys will "develop skill", they've usually gone more for those that have skill but are undersized or lacking in areas such as skating that might be improved by gaining strength.
Cholowski and Hronek for example fit very much the Wings drafting profile. Skilled guys with high ceilings if their physical development goes well.

And I think that's the right approach for where we draft. We just don't draft the right skilled guys on the back end.
 

OgeeOgelthorpe

Baldina
Feb 29, 2020
17,008
17,993
the one thing that makes me iffy about this pick is his name. Someone by the name of cholowski will never be a star in any sports league.

Facts

Signed with NYI, 2 yr 2 way

Last chance at an NHL career, after this it's AHL journeyman or Europe

He’s not cracking the Islanders top 6 unless things go catastrophically wrong. He’s not even that great in the AHL.
 

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