1st round accuracy for THN, RLR, ISS, and me

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Jim Bob, Jul 7, 2004.

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  1. Jim Bob

    Jim Bob Now do we believe?

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    Here is how each of the three draft guides and my rankings did when you compare where each 1st round pick was taken and where they were ranked by each group.

    THN - 5 picks on the money - 9.167 average delta
    RLR - 3 picks on the money - 15.3 average delta
    ISS - 2 picks on the money - 8.73 average delta
    Me - 4 picks on the money - 9.367 average delta

    Biggest average deltas:

    Chucko - 60
    Wheeler - 45.25
    Fistric - 34.25
    Rogers - 24.25
    Zajac - 17

    Smallest average deltas:

    Ovechkin - 0
    Malkin - 0
    Barker - 0.75
    Olesz - 1.5
    Schultz - 2.25
     
  2. Moskau

    Moskau Registered User

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    If THN are all fools what does that make Woodlief?
     
  3. Flames Draft Watcher

    Flames Draft Watcher Registered User

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    Obviously you don't understand what their rankings are for. They explicity say they do not try and predict the draft. In fact any inside information on teams liking certain players is never taken into consideration. Their rankings are purely based on how they would have selected the players if they were a team in the draft.

    ISS, Redline and McKeens do not try and predict the draft. That's what THN and TSN.ca do. Surprised you didn't realize that.
     
  4. Moskau

    Moskau Registered User

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    You obviously don't see me joking about Woodlief. He's the one who seems to make it a competition.
     
  5. db23

    db23 Guest

    Now we know the reason that Woodlief only lasted 1 year as a PART TIME NHL scout.
     
  6. Old Hickory

    Old Hickory Guest

    It would be interesting to look at those lists 5 years after a draft and see who did the best job
     
  7. Vlad The Impaler

    Vlad The Impaler Registered User

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    Is that really what THN are doing? I am not under that impression at all. They do use the opinion of several scouts but I am never under the impression they try to "mock" the draft.

    TSN does both a mock draft and I think they also have rankings sometimes. Or maybe I don't remember well, very possible.

    But the point is, you are right that Woodlief (and you know I have the lowest opinion possible of that clown) should absolutely NOT be judged by draft results. At all. It's just dumb to do so.

    The quality of these publications will be based on how accurate their assessment of the players will be. It's weird how we constantly have to remind people of that.
     
  8. Vlad The Impaler

    Vlad The Impaler Registered User

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    I put my hands on the Redline guide of 2000 and I plan to do just that next year.
     
  9. rikker

    rikker Registered User

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    Good job Jim Bob. Can I get a copy of your next years rankings? :D
     
  10. Soyuz

    Soyuz Registered User

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    How about RussianProspects ;) - their projections were pretty accurate for most guys....and if the stupid NHL / IIHF agreement did not expire, I bet you most of the top 25 guys would have gotten drafted. They may not have been completely accurate, but they called Vorobiev's, Ogorodnikov's and Alexandrov's drops despite a lot of people slating Vorobiev being a second rounder and Ogordnikov being a second, or even a high first round. Alexandrov was another guy that they had ranked in mid second round, and even though he fell even further, they still had him lower than some other sources. How about that Semenov kid - someone saw that one coming right? ;) :handclap:

    Megalinsky was a total shocker - I don't get it why no one took that kid...well I am just pissed about only 18 russians being picked...last year it was 34, the year before that it was 32.......
     
  11. Flames Draft Watcher

    Flames Draft Watcher Registered User

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    Yeah technically I guess you're right. They aren't doing a "mock draft" so much as they are trying to get a "consensus" list based on the scouts and GM's they talk to. But that's a heck of a lot closer to what a "mock draft" is about than what ISS, Redline, McKeen's, etc are trying to do.
     
  12. Slats432

    Slats432 Registered User

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    NHL VS HF STAFF

    1. WASHINGTON -- ALEXANDER OVECHKIN, LW, DYNAMO MOSCOW
    Alexander Ovechkin
    2. PITTSBURGH -- EVGENI MALKIN, C, MAGNITOGORSK
    Evgeni Malkin
    3. CHICAGO -- CAM BARKER, D, MEDICINE HAT
    Rostislav Olesz
    4. CAROLINA (FROM COLUMBUS) -- ANDREW LADD, LW, CALGARY
    Cam Barker
    5. PHOENIX -- BLAKE WHEELER, RW, BRECK HS
    Andrew Ladd
    6. NY RANGERS -- AL MONTOYA, G, MICHIGAN
    AJ Thelen
    7. FLORIDA -- ROSTISLAV OLESZ, C, HC VITKOVICE
    Rob Schremp
    8. COLUMBUS (FROM CAROLINA) -- ALEXANDRE PICARD, LW, LEWISTON
    Lauri Tukonen
    9. ANAHEIM -- LADISLAV SMID, D, LIBEREC
    Andrej Meszaros
    10. ATLANTA -- BORIS VALABIK, D, KITCHENER
    Wojtech Wolski
    11. LOS ANGELES -- LAURI TUKONEN, RW, ESPOO
    Marek Schwarz
    12. MINNESOTA -- A.J. THELEN, D, MICHIGAN STATE
    Drew Stafford
    13. BUFFALO -- DREW STAFFORD, RW, NORTH DAKOTA
    Boris Valabik
    14. EDMONTON -- DEVAN DUBNYK, G, KAMLOOPS
    Alexander Picard
    15. NASHVILLE -- ALEXANDER RADULOV, RW, TVER
    Bruce Graham
    16. NY ISLANDERS -- PETTERI NOKELAINEN, C, SAIPA
    Kyle Chipchura
    17. ST. LOUIS -- MAREK SCHWARZ, G, SPARTA PRAGUE
    Alexander Radulov
    18. MONTREAL -- KYLE CHIPCHURA, C, PRINCE ALBERT
    Johan Fransson
    19. NY RANGERS (FROM CALGARY) -- LAURI KORPIKOSKI, LW, TPS TURKU
    Enver Lisin
    20. NEW JERSEY (FROM DALLAS) -- TRAVIS ZAJAC, C, SALMON ARM
    Ladislav Smid
    21. COLORADO -- WOJTEK WOLSKI, LW, BRAMPTON
    Al Montoya
    22. SAN JOSE (FROM DAL/NJ) -- LUKAS KASPAR, RW, LITVINOV
    Mike Green
    23. OTTAWA -- ANDREJ MESZAROS, D, TRENCIN
    Dave Bollan
    24. CALGARY (FROM NYR/TOR) -- KRIS CHUCKO, LW, SALMON ARM
    Petteri Nokelainen
    25. EDMONTON (FROM PHILADELPHIA) -- ROBBIE SCHREMP, C, LONDON
    Lauri Korpikoski
    26. VANCOUVER -- CORY SCHNEIDER, G, ANDOVER
    Travis Zajac
    27. WASHINGTON (FROM BOSTON) -- JEFF SCHULTZ, D, CALGARY
    Wes O’Neill
    28. DALLAS (FROM SAN JOSE) -- MARK FISTRIC, D, VANCOUVER
    Victor Alexandrov
    29. WASHINGTON -- MIKE GREEN, D, SASKATOON
    Oscar Hedman
    30. TAMPA BAY -- ANDY ROGERS, D, CALGARY
    Devan Dubnyk

    At HF, the picks that killed....Wes O'Neill, Oscar Hedman, Victor Alexandrov, and Bruce Graham. The delta for HF Staff is 16.17, but without those 4 picks comes in at a very respectable 10.85.

    Of the 30 players selected in the first round , HF had 25 of them. I don't know what the others had.
     
  13. Jason MacIsaac

    Jason MacIsaac Registered User

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    What about McKeens.
     
  14. Marshall

    Marshall Hi beat writers!

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    McKeen's has a top 100 prospects list and a mock draft.
     
  15. Dr.Sens(e)

    Dr.Sens(e) Registered User

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    Well, at least we haven't seen anybody slamming Woodlief for not having Schremp in his top 10.

    I think Redline deserves at least a little credit, as they were really the first to go on record of dropping Schremp so low, even after the CHL allstar game, and everyone on this board slammed Woodlief relentlessly for not having the audacity to not have Schremp in his "rightful position" within the top 5.

    Fast forward 6 months or so, and we haven't seen too many of those posts of late given well over 20 NHL teams passed on Schremp come draft day. In fact, Woodlief would have taken Schremp ahead of many of those players taken in the top 20 based on Redline's rankings. It seems Redline over-rated Schremp if anything...

    And it will be fun to look back at these draft guides a few years down the road. I've asked McKeens if they can start archiving past years' Draft reports for such nostalgic purposes, but haven't heard whether they will or not. It seems like any easy way to add value to their subsciption.
     
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