NHL Entry Draft #19 overall

[Micklebot]

Phillip Tomasnio sticks out immediately, imo. Not quite as defensively reponsible as the other two guys, but still brings a solid two-way game while flashing lots of speed. I've been selling myself on him recently, and I can't help but shake the feeling it's because he's who I think the Sens will end up with. Just seems to fit their recent drafting MO better than other guys in that range.

He is one of a couple i would be choosing from if my top 18 choices are all off the board. I like him but as a consolation prize.

 

[stempniaksen]

He is one of a couple i would be choosing from if my top 18 choices are all off the board. I like him but as a consolation prize.

I'm in the exact same boat. I consider him to be among the "best of the rest" but I'm still holding out hope one of the guys I like falls to #19 (or the PD goes out an secures a higher pick).

 

[Dingleberry]

Sens draft MO in recent years:

1. Draft from CHL, USHL, USNDTP, Canadian or US Junior A, Sweden. Probably not from Finland or Russia
2. Projectable frame - not necessarily big and tall, but "thick" players with good lower body strenght and room to grow
3. Don't draft if character concerns - doesn't mean they target high character players with limited skill
4. Good progession - player needs to show marked improvement during their draft year, aka "risers"
5. Not afraid to take overagers early and often - but needs to show #4.

For pick #32:

#27. Tobias Bjornfot - Sweden
#28. Connor McMichael - OHL
#32. Jamieson Rees - OHL
#33. Ryan Johnson - USHL
#36. Brayden Tracey - WHL

For pick #44:

#39. Vladislav Kolyachonok - OHL
#41. John Beecher - USNDTP
#43. Simon Holmstrom - Sweden
#51. Robert Mastrosimone - USHL
#56. Samuel Fagemo - Sweden

 

[MatchesMalone]

Sens draft MO in recent years:

1. Draft from CHL, USHL, USNDTP, Canadian or US Junior A, Sweden. Probably not from Finland or Russia
2. Projectable frame - not necessarily big and tall, but "thick" players with good lower body strenght and room to grow
3. Don't draft if character concerns - doesn't mean they target high character players with limited skill
4. Good progession - player needs to show marked improvement during their draft year, aka "risers"
5. Not afraid to take overagers early and often - but needs to show #4.

From Bob's list I think these could be realistic targets (including trade-up) that check every box

#13. Alex Newhook - BCHL
#14. Victor Soderstrom - Sweden
#17. Thomas Harley - OHL
#18. Cam York - USNDPT
#20. Ryan Suzuki - OHL
#22. Philip Tomasino - OHL
#24. Samuel Poulin - QMJHL

While this is all correct and I like your thought process, I would add some caveats.

You mention Sweden as a draft tendency, but the last good-looking picks out of Sweden, Jaros and Dahlen, were made while Vaclav Burda was still Director of European scouting. As I mentioned elsewhere, we haven't made a single pick out of Europe in the two drafts since he left. We've hired two new European scouts in the past two years, so I expect some European picks in this draft, i doubt they'll be in the first round.

The rest of the tendencies you mentioned are correct, but for CHL, I wouldn't expect a WHL pick in the first round (you dont have any on your list there anyway, but I just want to put it out there).

Our two Western Canadian scouts right now are George Fargher and Bobby Strumm. Fargher was involved in both the Cowen and Lazar picks, and the rest of his record over the past ten years looks pretty miserable. Bob Lowes, now with Vegas, gets the credit for late picks Stone and Zach Smith.

Bobby Strumm was just hired in 2017 and the only name to his credit so far is Angus Crookshank, who is looking like maybe a gem, so perhaps Strumm will be the one to return credibility to our Western Canadian scouting, but I doubt they use a first rounder there this year. I'd be curious how involved he was on Tychonick and JBD, but I haven't been able to find any information on this.

Dorion's most trusted eyes right now are head scout Trent Mann, Don Boyd and Bob Janecyk, so most likely destinations would be QMJHL, USNTDP, OHL. But also as you mentioned, Dorion doesnt mind turning to junior A leagues for high picks.

 

[Dingleberry]

While this is all correct and I like your thought process, I would add some caveats.

You mention Sweden as a draft tendency, but the last good-looking picks out of Sweden, Jaros and Dahlen, were made while Vaclav Burda was still Director of European scouting. As I mentioned elsewhere, we haven't made a single pick out of Europe in the two drafts since he left. We've hired two new European scouts in the past two years, so I expect some European picks in this draft, i doubt they'll be in the first round.

The rest of the tendencies you mentioned are correct, but for CHL, I wouldn't expect a WHL pick in the first round (you dont have any on your list there anyway, but I just want to put it out there).

Our two Western Canadian scouts right now are George Fargher and Bobby Strumm. Fargher was involved in both the Cowen and Lazar picks, and the rest of his record over the past ten years looks pretty miserable. Bob Lowes, now with Vegas, gets the credit for late picks Stone and Zach Smith.

Bobby Strumm was just hired in 2017 and the only name to his credit so far is Angus Crookshank, who is looking like maybe a gem, so perhaps Strumm will be the one to return credibility to our Western Canadian scouting, but I doubt they use a first rounder there this year. I'd be curious how involved he was on Tychonick and JBD, but I haven't been able to find any information on this.

Dorion's most trusted eyes right now are head scout Trent Mann, Don Boyd and Bob Janecyk, so most likely destinations would be QMJHL, USNTDP, OHL. But also as you mentioned, Dorion doesnt mind turning to junior A leagues for high picks.

All good points. Striking the first two names from my list (who won't be there at #19 anyway), the five remaining should give a pretty good indication of who they will pick.

 

[GoodGoodnotBad]

TSN's latest mock has us taking Victor Soderstrom
https://www.tsn.ca/trouba-trade-adds-canadian-content-to-tsn-hockey-s-mock-draft-5-0-1.1321746

 

[OD99]

Doesn't really seem like the type of guy who fits the Sens MO. Personally I've got him ranked between 18-24 (in my 4th tier) so would have no issues taking a flyer on him at #19. That being said, I wouldn't blame the org in the least for going with a perceived "safer" option like Soderstrom, Heinola or Tomasino.

Really doubt he drops as far as #32, so it becomes a bit of a moot point if the team passes on him at #19.

Thanks for the feedback everyone.

So I am reading that a few of you echo the Senators thought process in looking at work ethic and character and while I would typically agree when I hear about the upside here it seems so tempting to throw caution to the wind and look to snag a dynamic goal scorer in the 2nd half of the 1st round.

I like his size but I have zero idea about how he scores...is he just bulling his way to the net? Seems he has a pretty good shot and maybe foot speed is a bit of an issue but man...we could use a pure sniper.

Think I have convinced myself to hope we are surprised and we take him.

 

[Samboni]

If that Kaliyev (sp) kid is available would you all take him?

When I read about him being the best goal scorer but maybe has attitude or work ethic issues I don't see the Sens picking him but seems like a guy to take a flyer on with all that natural talent?

IIRC, pre draft, there was some concerns about Marion Hossa, but he turned out to be a great pick. I know nothing about any of these kids, but pure goal scorers catch my attention.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

TSN's latest mock has us taking Victor Soderstrom
https://www.tsn.ca/trouba-trade-adds-canadian-content-to-tsn-hockey-s-mock-draft-5-0-1.1321746

I am fairly positive we are going to move up

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

TSN's latest mock has us taking Victor Soderstrom
https://www.tsn.ca/trouba-trade-adds-canadian-content-to-tsn-hockey-s-mock-draft-5-0-1.1321746

I'd be happy with that pick

 

[Six Assets]

TSN's latest mock has us taking Victor Soderstrom
https://www.tsn.ca/trouba-trade-adds-canadian-content-to-tsn-hockey-s-mock-draft-5-0-1.1321746

decent mock

 

[MatchesMalone]

Looks like a few people here saying Sens move up. My initial thought was they'd probably move up or down, but after further inspection, it seems unlikely. Every team from 10 to 16 already has a surplus of picks in this draft, so they doubt need to trade down to add more. And almost every team from 20 to 30 has a deficit of picks.

Anaheim and Edmonton at eight and nine look like the most likely candidates to move back, and that is a bit of a reach to move to from 19.

Most likely we pick at 19, and then maybe package a couple of seconds for a late first.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Looks like a few people here saying Sens move up. My initial thought was they'd probably move up or down, but after further inspection, it seems unlikely. Every team from 10 to 16 already has a surplus of picks in this draft, so they doubt need to trade down to add more. And almost every team from 20 to 30 has a deficit of picks.

Anaheim and Edmonton at eight and nine look like the most likely candidates to move back, and that is a bit of a reach to move to from 19.

Most likely we pick at 19, and then maybe package a couple of seconds for a late first.

Also, PD would be scared of messing up the pick for this draft. I hope we stick to 19.... nuh, nuh, nuh, nuh, nineteen

 

[Acidrain66]

So who is this year's Brandon Point? Speed and high hockey I.Q

 

[Johnny Hanson]

So who is this year's Brandon Point? Speed and high hockey I.Q

Tomasino might fit the bill

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

So who is this year's Brandon Point? Speed and high hockey I.Q

Brayden. but... no idea .. pick a player in the 3rd round that turns into Brayden Point and you should be getting paid well for that kind of insight. In the 1st round there may be a couple like Newhook or Turcotte that will hit that ceiling.

 

[Micklebot]

Looks like a few people here saying Sens move up. My initial thought was they'd probably move up or down, but after further inspection, it seems unlikely. Every team from 10 to 16 already has a surplus of picks in this draft, so they doubt need to trade down to add more. And almost every team from 20 to 30 has a deficit of picks.

Anaheim and Edmonton at eight and nine look like the most likely candidates to move back, and that is a bit of a reach to move to from 19.

Most likely we pick at 19, and then maybe package a couple of seconds for a late first.

That's why a pick swap with Vegas and/or Florida makes sens. Take on bad contract in Clarkson and in return move up a couple spots to 17. Arizona is looking to add to it's roster, maybe they are ready to shed a bad contract to make room for more than one add or want to be proactive about making room for a couple RFA signings they need to do next season.

 

[benjiv1]

Looks like a few people here saying Sens move up. My initial thought was they'd probably move up or down, but after further inspection, it seems unlikely. Every team from 10 to 16 already has a surplus of picks in this draft, so they doubt need to trade down to add more. And almost every team from 20 to 30 has a deficit of picks.

Anaheim and Edmonton at eight and nine look like the most likely candidates to move back, and that is a bit of a reach to move to from 19.

Most likely we pick at 19, and then maybe package a couple of seconds for a late first.

Florida doesn’t have their 2nd or 3rd Rd picks.

Also, Dorion has already said he has had multiple conversations about moving up.

Almost a 0% chance we move into the top 10, but lots of teams are happy to move back and collect another asset if they can still get their player.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

So who is this year's Brandon Point? Speed and high hockey I.Q

I see Newhook as Point comparable, and Tomasino as a Barzal comparable. I'd be absolutely thrilled with either, with preference obviously going to Newhook.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Florida doesn’t have their 2nd or 3rd Rd picks.

Also, Dorion has already said he has had multiple conversations about moving up.

Almost a 0% chance we move into the top 10, but lots of teams are happy to move back and collect another asset if they can still get their player.

Ok but Florida does have Pittsburgh's second and Edmonton's third. And nine picks in the draft in total.

Of course it is possible, but it makes it more difficult when they're not negotiating from a position of need or deficit.

But maybe all it means is that it if we're going to move up we're more likely to include one of our 2020 seconds than a 2019.

 

[MatchesMalone]

That's why a pick swap with Vegas and/or Florida makes sens. Take on bad contract in Clarkson and in return move up a couple spots to 17. Arizona is looking to add to it's roster, maybe they are ready to shed a bad contract to make room for more than one add or want to be proactive about making room for a couple RFA signings they need to do next season.

Decent point. But is Melnyk willing to take on empty contracts like that? I could see it if they need to hit the cap floor.

 

[Icelevel]

This pick(as well as the 2nd rounders) is absolutely huge for the rebuild.
I know..quite obvious but it just hit me how very important it is.

 

[Sen sational]

Decent point. But is Melnyk willing to take on empty contracts like that? I could see it if they need to hit the cap floor.

In a number of the possible trades, the contracts are insured (Arizona, Vegas) and you are looking at paying $200,000 per year. Yes it is Melnyk, so money will also be taken into consideration but then he has to look at the value of a faster re-build/better player for minimal compensation. On top of that danielpalfreddson and ouroboros have provided examples of net trades that benefit Ottawa in real dollars. For example,

Boston- we take Backes after his bonus is paid, Ottawa takes on $5 million in cash and trades Zack Smith which costs Boston $6.5. Ottawa saves $1.5 and gets a pick out of it. Or Ottawa sends Condon, buried, to Boston. It costs Boston $1.4 to buy out, Ottawa would have had to pay Condon $3 million, so Ottawa takes Backes and a pick for $2 million more in cash over 2 years.

Ouroboros did a nice job analyzing taking on Marleau to buyout and trade to SJ, net neutral cash with a pick.

Are we keeping Condon as a goalie or as a trade piece to save Melnyk real cash?

 

[pzeeman]

Also, PD would be scared of messing up the pick for this draft. I hope we stick to 19.... nuh, nuh, nuh, nuh, nineteen

 

[Grizz MacArthur]

I think the Sens would love to trade up and take Newhook...we shall see.