Post-Game Talk: #18 | FLYERS (A) vs. Sabres (H) | Sun., Feb. 28, 2021 | Flyers win 3-0 (make team history)

[deadhead]

A weird thing with JVR is that a lot of the shooting percentage is driven by deflections and rebounds at the net, which are mega high quality. And he has the skill to do that nonsense nonstop. Always has.

The big difference is that he's been pretty dominant around the net. He's in position to use that skill more than usual. One of his biggest limitations in the past was being held to the perimeter, where that skill in close is neutralized.

Also encouraging is strong playmaking; he is overall more assertive and less passive.

So yeah I don't assume this is fully sustainable, but at the same time...it might be, and the basement for him this year might not be terrible low

He's in better shape this year, and he's going to the blue paint, instead of parking himself 5' away, using his size to establish position.
I think AV got his message to JVR, that he was out of shape in the bubble and he had little future here if it happened again.

At this point, JVR will be protected over Voracek in the ED, Farabee is a better player than Voracek right now with a lot more upside.
So Voracek has to beat out TK just to stay in the top six.
It's no so much that Voracek has slipped, but JVR and Farabee have pushed ahead.

 

[Rebels57]

He's in better shape this year, and he's going to the blue paint, instead of parking himself 5' away, using his size to establish position.
I think AV got his message to JVR, that he was out of shape in the bubble and he had little future here if it happened again.

At this point, JVR will be protected over Voracek in the ED, Farabee is a better player than Voracek right now with a lot more upside.
So Voracek has to beat out TK just to stay in the top six.
It's no so much that Voracek has slipped, but JVR and Farabee have pushed ahead.

This is starting to seem like a possibility but there's a lot of season left.

 

[Striiker]

A weird thing with JVR is that a lot of the shooting percentage is driven by deflections and rebounds at the net, which are mega high quality. And he has the skill to do that nonsense nonstop. Always has.

The big difference is that he's been pretty dominant around the net. He's in position to use that skill more than usual. One of his biggest limitations in the past was being held to the perimeter, where that skill in close is neutralized.

Also encouraging is strong playmaking; he is overall more assertive and less passive.

So yeah I don't assume this is fully sustainable, but at the same time...it might be, and the basement for him this year might not be terrible low

But he's always been the same kind of player (net-front, lots of deflections, primarily a goal scorer) and I was comparing his current shooting % (23.81%) to his own shooting % from previous years (12.58%, 16.17%, 14.52%), so I don't think that's the reason it's so high. Likewise for his on-ice shooting % (18.01% vs 10.36%, 11.03%, 10.97%).

I'm not trying to be a party pooper, I really like JVR and defended him constantly over the summer and previous years, but my point is that the good luck is going to end eventually and people need to keep that in mind when watching him. That way we don't see comments about JVR "disappearing" or have people go back to saying he's a "liability" when his actual quality of play is likely the same.

 

[Beef Invictus]

But he's always been the same kind of player (net-front, lots of deflections, primarily a goal scorer) and I was comparing his current shooting % (23.81%) to his own shooting % from previous years (12.58%, 16.17%, 14.52%), so I don't think that's the reason it's so high. Likewise for his on-ice shooting % (18.01% vs 10.36%, 11.03%, 10.97%).

I'm not trying to be a party pooper, I really like JVR and defended him constantly over the summer and previous years, but my point is that the good luck is going to end eventually and people need to keep that in mind when watching him. That way we don't see comments about JVR "disappearing" or have people go back to saying he's a "liability" when his actual quality of play is likely the same.

I covered that; he's way less of a passive perimeter player this year.

There's still plenty of time for that to change. But that's been my observation so far.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

At 5v5, shot maps don't back up the theory that he was a perimeter player and now isn't. The biggest jump in his percentage of overall shots from last year to this is wristers from the near half of the circles.

There is evidence that his tips have come from in closer, but that's not the same thing at all.

At 5v4, he has been more stationary in the net front. That's a complicated discussion.

 

[Magua]

It's not just the scoring, though. JVR's a completely different player this year in terms of how aggressively he forechecks and defends.

I know he's playing excellent all-around hockey, and my feeling is that he's been better this year. But I also know he actually led the Flyers in relTM stats last year -- essentially, his play driving was the least teammate driven of all the forwards. He's never really had a Couturier bump before because it's not a duo that's seen much ice time. Together, along with Farabee, there is obviously a metric ton of hockey sense and cycle ability playing off one another. As was pointed out by Striikey, his scoring is just not sustainable. But that doesn't mean his play hasn't been excellent. But he was excellent last year, and got the short end of the stick because his scoring was unsustainably low.

Without knowing the numbers (@JojoTheWhale ), I have a gut feeling he is generating more individual controlled entries this season than years prior. He's skating very well. As it usually goes, it's all a trick of the mind. But maybe!

 

[Striiker]

I covered that; he's way less of a passive perimeter player this year.

There's still plenty of time for that to change. But that's been my observation so far.

Oh, I see what you’re saying.

Not saying you’re wrong, but that’s not something that’s stood out to me. Although it’s not something I’ve been specifically looking for either. I’ve always thought his reputation as a soft/passive/perimeter/dumb player was exaggerated, so I’m never surprised to see him in front of the net and scoring deflections. I thought he was great last year and just continued that this year, plus a little good fortune.

Regardless, even if we assume you’re right, there’s still a hefty dose of luck involved in addition to his own high quality of play. I’d love to be wrong and see it continue though.

 

[Laveuglette]

A weird thing with JVR is that a lot of the shooting percentage is driven by deflections and rebounds at the net, which are mega high quality. And he has the skill to do that nonsense nonstop. Always has.

The big difference is that he's been pretty dominant around the net. He's in position to use that skill more than usual. One of his biggest limitations in the past was being held to the perimeter, where that skill in close is neutralized.

Also encouraging is strong playmaking; he is overall more assertive and less passive.

So yeah I don't assume this is fully sustainable, but at the same time...it might be, and the basement for him this year might not be terrible low

Agreed. It's not just random, he's getting very higher quality chances. The way they are playing is working very well with him. I don't think that JVR suddenly became one of the best players in the league, but whatever they are doing right now fits well with JVR and he could sustain a high pace (not the current one though, but a career high one)

 

[Striiker]

At 5v5, shot maps don't back up the theory that he was a perimeter player and now isn't. The biggest jump in his percentage of overall shots from last year to this is wristers from the near half of the circles.

There is evidence that his tips have come from in closer, but that's not the same thing at all.

At 5v4, he has been more stationary in the net front. That's a complicated discussion.

Two questions:

1) where can I find shot maps for individual players?

2) do deflections count as shots for a players shooting %? For some reason I've never even considered this...

 

[JojoTheWhale]

@Striiker PMing you.

I know he's playing excellent all-around hockey, and my feeling is that he's been better this year. But I also know he actually led the Flyers in relTM stats last year -- essentially, his play driving was the least teammate driven of all the forwards. He's never really had a Couturier bump before because it's not a duo that's seen much ice time. Together, along with Farabee, there is obviously a metric ton of hockey sense and cycle ability playing off one another. As was pointed out by Striikey, his scoring is just not sustainable. But that doesn't mean his play hasn't been excellent. But he was excellent last year, and got the short end of the stick because his scoring was unsustainably low.

Without knowing the numbers (@JojoTheWhale ), I have a gut feeling he is generating more individual controlled entries this season than years prior. He's skating very well. As it usually goes, it's all a trick of the mind. But maybe!

SSS caveat aside, he's currently a bit better than Voracek in transition in general, which is partially him being up a bit, partially Jake being down a bit, and entirely a foretelling of the apocalypse.

 

[Striiker]

@Striiker PMing you.

Awesome, thanks.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Two questions:

1) where can I find shot maps for individual players?

2) do deflections count as shots for a players shooting %? For some reason I've never even considered this...

I'm on the opposite end here, I've never even considered that they wouldn't count. Maybe they don't.

 

[Striiker]

I'm on the opposite end here, I've never even considered that they wouldn't count. Maybe they don't.

I just figured a shot was a shot. As in, the specific intentional action of shooting on net.

Getting hit by the puck, either intentionally or unintentionally didnt seem like the same thing so I never connected the two.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I just figured a shot was a shot. As in, the specific intentional action of shooting on net.

Getting hit by the puck, either intentionally or unintentionally didnt seem like the same thing so I never connected the two.

Shit, I never paused to consider what it's tallied as if someone bounces a puck on net off one's face.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

2) do deflections count as shots for a players shooting %? For some reason I've never even considered this...

Usually only if they score, as they would get credit for the goal and, subsequently, the shot.

Most deflections that aren't goals are credited as shots for the shooter because the scorekeepers honestly wouldn't care to get that close to the data in real time and wouldn't bother to correct it after the fact.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Tips are shot attempts, yes. They can just be pulled out separately, as can deflections. As with any other type, they don't count as a Box Score Shot unless they're on net. If a Tip hits the Post, it's still off target.

The trick is that determining what is/isn't a tip is up for debate. Some teams like Minnesota, Tampa, and NYR are notorious for providing less accurate shot data. Some models now adjust for this in metrics like xG.

 

[Striiker]

Shit, I never paused to consider what it's tallied as if someone bounces a puck on net off one's face.

Wasn’t it Jake who scored a goal off his nose like 8 years back?

Usually only if they score, as they would get credit for the goal and, subsequently, the shot.

Most deflections that aren't goals are credited as shots for the shooter because the scorekeepers honestly wouldn't care to get that close to the data in real time and wouldn't bother to correct it after the fact.

This is basically what I subconsciously assumed.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

I know he's playing excellent all-around hockey, and my feeling is that he's been better this year. But I also know he actually led the Flyers in relTM stats last year -- essentially, his play driving was the least teammate driven of all the forwards. He's never really had a Couturier bump before because it's not a duo that's seen much ice time. Together, along with Farabee, there is obviously a metric ton of hockey sense and cycle ability playing off one another. As was pointed out by Striikey, his scoring is just not sustainable. But that doesn't mean his play hasn't been excellent. But he was excellent last year, and got the short end of the stick because his scoring was unsustainably low.

Without knowing the numbers (@JojoTheWhale ), I have a gut feeling he is generating more individual controlled entries this season than years prior. He's skating very well. As it usually goes, it's all a trick of the mind. But maybe!

Yeah, I'm with you here, but it's his play without the puck that I think has fundamentally changed this year in my eyes, particularly on the back check.

His play with the puck I think has been a bit better, too (more patience on controlled puck entries, more aggressive on dump in entries), but I don't have the data on that to compare to previous years.

 

[Striiker]

Tips are shot attempts, yes. They can just be pulled out separately, as can deflections. As with any other type, they don't count as a Box Score Shot unless they're on net. If a Tip hits the Post, it's still off target.

The trick is that determining what is/isn't a tip is up for debate. Some teams like Minnesota, Tampa, and NYR are notorious for providing less accurate shot data. Some models now adjust for this in metrics like xG.

Well damn, now I know. Thanks.

I’m now just slightly less stupid than I was 10 minutes ago. Progress.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Wasn’t it Jake who scored a goal off his nose like 8 years back?

I do recall Wayne Simmonds scoring off his face.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Tips are shot attempts, yes. They can just be pulled out separately, as can deflections. As with any other type, they don't count as a Box Score Shot unless they're on net. If a Tip hits the Post, it's still off target.

The trick is that determining what is/isn't a tip is up for debate. Some teams like Minnesota, Tampa, and NYR are notorious for providing less accurate shot data. Some models now adjust for this in metrics like xG.

Hmm, are in game statisticians actually counting tips as shots across the board now? That would be news to me because I don't know when it changed, if so.

I have been living in ignorance.

 

[Striiker]

I do recall Wayne Simmonds scoring off his face.

Oh yup, that’s who I was thinking of.



Got the 8 year part right though!

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Oh yup, that’s who I was thinking of.

And of course a puck crying in terror after Thor! neutralized it. Did I tell you that is the greatest play in hockey history?

 

[Striiker]

And of course a puck crying in terror after Thor! neutralized it. Did I tell you that is the greatest play in hockey history?

I have absolutely no idea what you’re referring to

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

I have absolutely no idea what you’re referring to

@CanadianFlyer88

Who is this charlatan?

------------------

We had a humorous exchange at the time. Thor! his super human name after blocking a shot in a rather inappropriate location and many who witnessed it grimaced simultaneously. The puck ended up the loser.