18/19 MGMT Thread X: This is the song that never ends, it just goes on and on my friends...

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timw33

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Nov 18, 2007
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I made a simulator for playing out the rest of the season given schedule, and assuming current scoring rates. I did 10,000 sims and the Canucks made the playoffs around 18% of the time.

This feels about right. Although it doesn't take into account injuries to tanev, Edler, etc.

So what's the plan? Do you go for it? They aren't likely to be able to make the playoffs with an 85 point team next year. As discussed, this might be their best chance.

I would be honoured to be swept by, called soft, and then have more reactionary moves to make us "tougher" instead of better.
 
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Bleach Clean

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Aug 9, 2006
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I made a simulator for playing out the rest of the season given schedule, and assuming current scoring rates. I did 10,000 sims and the Canucks made the playoffs around 18% of the time.

This feels about right. Although it doesn't take into account injuries to tanev, Edler, etc.

So what's the plan? Do you go for it? They aren't likely to be able to make the playoffs with an 85 point team next year. As discussed, this might be their best chance.


Did this team overachieve this year or is this their true talent baseline? I think answering that question answers your question.

Further, I’m not sure how they can go for it if they refuse to give up 2019 picks and have roster players on bad contracts?
 
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Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
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Did this team overachieve this year or is this their true talent baseline? I think answering that question answers your question.

Further, I’m not sure how they can go for it if they refuse to give up 2019 picks and have roster players on bad contracts?

I don't think they've overachieved. I think this is fairly representative of what they are.

They are in a unique position because of the terrible play of the rest of the West. They will need to improve a fair bit to be in the race next season, and I don't see that happening.

I probably do whatever I can to make it this year then hope for Markstrom to catch fire again in the playoffs.
 

Jay Cee

P4G
May 8, 2007
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Did this team overachieve this year or is this their true talent baseline? I think answering that question answers your question.

Further, I’m not sure how they can go for it if they refuse to give up 2019 picks and have roster players on bad contracts?

I like to temper my own expectations, but with Petey in the lineup it makes any game winnable and I don't feel like we have had that energy and high end skill for some time.

I am thinking a healthy 82 games we would see some real fireworks, success and stats wise.
 

Pastor Of Muppetz

Registered User
Oct 1, 2017
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I like to temper my own expectations, but with Petey in the lineup it makes any game winnable and I don't feel like we have had that energy and high end skill for some time.

I am thinking a healthy 82 games we would see some real fireworks, success and stats wise.
Agreed ..Pete is a 'game breaker' for sure, and a hot goalie can pull the rabbit out of the hat....

I am more looking towards next season where I believe we will be a legit playoff team..Again,a lot of the teams in the Western Conference are in their 'down' cycle, which will open the door a bit wider for the Canucks.
 

TruKnyte

On the wagon
Jan 1, 2012
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I don't think they've overachieved. I think this is fairly representative of what they are.

They are in a unique position because of the terrible play of the rest of the West. They will need to improve a fair bit to be in the race next season, and I don't see that happening.

I probably do whatever I can to make it this year then hope for Markstrom to catch fire again in the playoffs.

To clarify, would this include having future assets (e.g. draft picks, prospects) on the table? If so what would you consider to be acceptable value for those trades.
 

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
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To clarify, would this include having future assets (e.g. draft picks, prospects) on the table? If so what would you consider to be acceptable value for those trades.

Wouldn't want a pending Ufa. Would want someone for at least next season too. Would trade Hughes or Woo.
 

Hockeyphysio

Registered User
Jul 2, 2018
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Not sure if anyone else was listening team 1040 today but Botchford was saying they are asking for a top 4d + for Gudbranson.....
He was also talking how Dave Babych was bragging how he had recommended Gudbranson to Gillis.

I don't understand how you can look at a player who always always always is on for (a lot) more goals against than for and conclude ah must have because he is sort of tough and big
 

clunk

Registered User
Dec 10, 2015
11,343
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I'm gonna..
Not sure if anyone else was listening team 1040 today but Botchford was saying they are asking for a top 4d + for Gudbranson.....
He was also talking how Dave Babych was bragging how he had recommended Gudbranson to Gillis.

I don't understand how you can look at a player who always always always is on for (a lot) more goals against than for and conclude ah must have because he is sort of tough and big
Just take a ****ing pick and be thankful someone took him off your hands.
 

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
28,055
Montreal, QC
Not sure if anyone else was listening team 1040 today but Botchford was saying they are asking for a top 4d + for Gudbranson.....
He was also talking how Dave Babych was bragging how he had recommended Gudbranson to Gillis.

I don't understand how you can look at a player who always always always is on for (a lot) more goals against than for and conclude ah must have because he is sort of tough and big

Imbeciles.
 

Jyrki21

2021-12-05
Sponsor
Haha yes. I was waiting for this one. You got something special planned for the 100th?
I have been gradually working on something a little different that was originally intended to either serve as the 100th or to accompany it... but I haven't made as much progress as I wanted, so it probably won't be ready in time. I was thinking of doing some kind of contest where anyone who retweets it becomes eligible for a prize or something.

All that said, it may be a little while before that 100th hits the shelves – I'm leaving on vacation for a bit tomorrow and work has been really busy of late.
 

I in the Eye

Drop a ball it falls
Dec 14, 2002
6,371
2,327
If I'm in charge, I don't go for it this year... If we make it, next year and beyond will be seen as a regress. Expectations will be higher for progress by the casuals. The casuals are right now a sleeping bear... Don't poke a stick, let the bear sleep. Besides, chances are good, even if going for it, not going to make it.
 
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The Drop

Rain Drop, Drop Top
Jul 12, 2015
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Agreed ..Pete is a 'game breaker' for sure, and a hot goalie can pull the rabbit out of the hat....

I am more looking towards next season where I believe we will be a legit playoff team..Again,a lot of the teams in the Western Conference are in their 'down' cycle, which will open the door a bit wider for the Canucks.
Depends what your definition of legit is.

They’ll only be a playoff contender if the rest of the teams round them suck like this year.

Pettersson, bo, Boeser up front and then a whole lot of junk.

Defense has a couple of 2/3rd pairing dmen in Hutton and Stecher and a elite prospect in Hughes.

Markstrom playing like he has in December would help.

Elder and Tanev a year older.

I think they’re closer to the oilers than the playoffs
 

Jack Burton

Pro Tank Since 13
Oct 27, 2016
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Benning and the D

















giphy.gif
 

me2

Go ahead foot
Jun 28, 2002
37,903
5,595
Make my day.
It seems the plan is wait long enough and Benning's bad trades and bad signings will go away and somehow never have counted. Or how a missed opportunity doesn't have consequences.

If you look a Benning's work (A-F grades)

UFAs: D-
Trades: D
Contracts internal: C
planning & execution: D
Team roadmap: F
Scouting: B+


"So long and thanks for the prospects." should be the words on the owner's lips.
 

Peen

Rejoicing in a Benning-free world
Oct 6, 2013
29,640
24,984
We sit in the exact same place as we did coming into the season.

We need two more bonafide top six scorers and two more bonafide NHL caliber defensemen. At least one of those being 25 minute capable.

Ready for another offseason of more Granlunds, Erikssons, and Del Zottos!

Woo!
 

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
28,055
Montreal, QC
I think if they don't make it this year, when every team sucks, it's going to be three or four more years.

Edler will decline, and soon after will Tanev and Markstrom. Pettersson is not going to be enough. They will waste his early years the same way Edmonton wastes McDavid.

A GM taking over should probably be shopping those three, in addition to getting whatever he can for overpaid junk like gudbranson, Sutter, Beagle etc. Should probably be looking to move Boeser for a top defender too if you can.

If Benning isn't fired, I don't think the dark times have really even started. I can see this team missing the playoffs for another five years after this one.
 

MarkMM

Registered User
Jan 30, 2010
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I think if they don't make it this year, when every team sucks, it's going to be three or four more years.

Edler will decline, and soon after will Tanev and Markstrom. Pettersson is not going to be enough. They will waste his early years the same way Edmonton wastes McDavid.

A GM taking over should probably be shopping those three, in addition to getting whatever he can for overpaid junk like gudbranson, Sutter, Beagle etc. Should probably be looking to move Boeser for a top defender too if you can.

If Benning isn't fired, I don't think the dark times have really even started. I can see this team missing the playoffs for another five years after this one.

And by then we've run out of RFA years for EP and Boeser.

Yup.

On the other hand...

"...but Gillis..."
 

Phenomenon13

Registered User
Oct 10, 2011
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In an attempt to participate in some actual discussion regarding management's performance, I think one aspect of their performance here that isn't discussed enough is the impact their pro scouting and acquisitions have had on this rebuild. Sure, Benning's pro-scouting has been rightfully criticized on here, but I don't think the effect of that pro-scouting has been discussed enough in terms of its effect on this rebuild.

Contracts, the cap and the trade deadline essentially result in a sellers market every year at the deadline. While prices will change from deadline to deadline, there will always be competitive teams that are willing to trade draft picks and prospects for players that will help them compete for the playoffs, but also in the playoffs. So if you are a perennially poor team like the Canucks have been over the past four years, you will naturally be in a position of strength to acquire picks and prospects at the deadline, unless, of course, your pro-player acquisitions are terrible.

Essentially, if you are able to acquire average pro-players, on average contract terms, you will be able to trade these players at the deadline for picks and prospects. We see this every year. For example, look at the transactions of the Maple Leafs at the 2016 trade deadline:
  1. Leafs acquire Morin (prospect) for Panik;
  2. Leafs acquire a 4th round pick and Smith (prospect) for Matthias;
  3. Leafs acquire two 2nd Round Picks and a cap dump in Torres for Polak and Spaling
  4. Leafs acquire Ben Smith, Stalock and a 4th round pick for Morin and Reimer and Morin
  5. Leafs acquire a 2nd round pick, Carrick (prospect) and Laich (a cap dump) for Winnik
Compare this to Jim Benning and the contrast is incredible. Basically all the decent picks and prospect acquired by Jim Benning were acquired for players that were signed or acquired by previous management (e.g., Kesler, Bieksa, Hansen and Garrison). Jim Benning has almost entirely failed to acquire anything of any value for players he has acquired. It's unbelievable.

After each trade deadline he essentially whines to the media that "picks are hard to acquire". Which isn't true. Picks are quite easy to acquire at the deadline if you don't sign bad players, or decent players to bad terms. Its why pro-scouting is so important even when rebuilding, and also why signing players to reasonable contracts is also important. The notion that contract terms are not important to a rebuilding team (see Beagle and Roussel) is absolutely not true. And the above proves that so easily. Cap space is important so that you can take on cap dumps, and having players sign to reasonable contracts is also important because it makes them more attractive to competitive teams at the deadline.

I didn't realize that Benning hasn't been able to acquire anything of significant value for his signed players. I thought about Sutter but it does branch down from the Kesler trade so I don't know if you would consider that part of it.

Our pro scouting is poor and it really shows. Does Benning scout these players before acquiring or is it solely on the pro scouting staff? Right now, the information given to Benning is really bad and the valuations of the players being scouted are way off. Benning isn't about to acquire picks at the deadline is because he has tunnel vision. He's too focused on getting a specific piece that he views as important which leads to him losing leverage in deals when it becomes apparent. It's clear in his negotiation with free agents that this happens. Negotiations are being difficult with other teams? Throw in a pick! Negotiations being difficult with free agents? Throw in more money and term. Cap doesn't matter cause we got lots. It's just an awful precedent.
 
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Bubbles

Die Hard for Bedard 2023
Apr 16, 2004
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Mark my words, Benning is going to be throwing stupid money at Adam McQuaid. Former Benning-era Bruin, UFA, and marginal player. That fits his checklist to a tee. Watch him get $5 million a year contract.
 
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