#156 overall, LD Kyle Aucoin

[Henkka]

5'11 Left-handed defenceman.

Kyle Aucoin - NHL - DraftSite.com

"Keith's son is a two-way defender with a ton of compete. He may develop after long term development."

Keith Aucoin was that former AHL-scoring machine?

Player comparison: "Jared Cowen."

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[PullHard]

This is Adrian's son, not Keith's

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

Reminds me of the 2017 draft where we seemingly drafted for organizational depth rather than people who could become impact NHLers

 

[Frk It]

Reminds me of the 2017 draft where we seemingly drafted for organizational depth rather than people who could become impact NHLers

This pick or this draft class?

This kid is super young and skates well with an NHL dad. We are in the 6th round... what do people want?

 

[Henkka]

. We are in the 6th round... what do people want?

At least 2 Datsyuks and 3 Zetterbergs.

Some realism!

 

[Tetsuo]

Reminds me of the 2017 draft where we seemingly drafted for organizational depth rather than people who could become impact NHLers

Aucoin is a pretty big reach IMO. Feels like a guy who would be available a few years from now as an undrafted pick up. But it's the 6th round so it doesn't matter.

 

[nbwingsfan]

At least 2 Datsyuks and 3 Zetterbergs.

Some realism!

Ill settle for one of each I suppose

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I like this gamble for them. July birthday his father was quite a bit bigger so maybe he still grows a little bit. Has plenty of time to develop at Harvard. Their are things to work with here, it is a long-rang deal so it reinforces you down the road maybe after we have evaluated other guys. We will see, fascinated to watch the Beanpot this year if it happens with us well represented.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

This pick or this draft class?

This kid is super young and skates well with an NHL dad. We are in the 6th round... what do people want?

If skating well is the only thing a player does well that doesn't bode well for there NHL future.

I'd prefer we go with any number of interesting forwards that were on the board at the time that have a chance to at least be impact players. Benjamin Baumgartner, Yevgeni Oksentyuk, Alexander Pashin, Samuel Johannesson, Rory Kerins, Veeti Miettinen, or Connor McClennon all have legitimate middle 6 or bottom pairing upside unlike Aucoin. If Aucoin makes it he's nothing more than a #7 and I'd be shocked if he even makes it above the AHL or even gets offered an ELC. Defenceman that look like him make the NHL about 3-6% of the time so he has an up hill battle ahead of him.

 

[Frk It]

If skating well is the only thing a player does well that doesn't bode well for there NHL future.

I'd prefer we go with any number of interesting forwards that were on the board at the time that have a chance to at least be impact players. Benjamin Baumgartner, Yevgeni Oksentyuk, Alexander Pashin, Samuel Johannesson, Rory Kerins, Veeti Miettinen, or Connor McClennon all have legitimate middle 6 or bottom pairing upside unlike Aucoin. If Aucoin makes it he's nothing more than a #7 and I'd be shocked if he even makes it above the AHL or even gets offered an ELC. Defenceman that look like him make the NHL about 3-6% of the time so he has an up hill battle ahead of him.

Have you ever seen Aucoin play? Every pick has to be someone you know about? I just think reading some of these comments, that the expectations are ridiculous, and I can give a little leniency once we get past the first 3-4 rounds to picks like this.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Have you ever seen Aucoin play? Every pick has to be someone you know about? I just think reading some of these comments, that the expectations are ridiculous, and I can give a little leniency once we get past the first 3-4 rounds to picks like this.

No, I haven't, but with a statistical profile like his he should be on every teams DND list. Until he shows that he has actual upside there are less risky picks to make. If you draft a player that has his profile, where say 95% of the time that player busts and doesn't make it to the NHL, you're wasting your pick. If you're picking someone with that sort of probability of success and their only claim is being a "great skater" I think you need to review your selection process. There is a happy medium where NHL prospect models and traditional scouting can co-exist and this would be one of those instances where your model should give you pause before you make the selection.

Expecting to select a player with middle 6 or bottom pairing upside with every pick isn't ridiculous and it's the standard we should hold the team to. Not every pick will develop into an NHLer, but by selecting someone like Aucoin you're relying almost entirely on luck getting him to the NHL.

 

[Dotter]

At 156th overall, all he has to do is play a handful of NHL game to be considered a "good use of the 156th overall pick".

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

This is Adrian's son, not Keith's

Correct.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

This pick or this draft class?

This kid is super young and skates well with an NHL dad. We are in the 6th round... what do people want?

This pick.

And I would have liked someone like Gogolev or Kittemaki. If they’re unlikely to be a NHLer anyways, I’d personally prefer someone who at least has the tools to maybe become a middle 6/bottom 4 D player.

basically I’d rather have a free .1% lotto ticket potentially worth $10 than find a guaranteed penny. I doubt this guy even sniffs the NHL.

 

[jkutswings]

No, I haven't, but with a statistical profile like his he should be on every teams DND list. Until he shows that he has actual upside there are less risky picks to make. If you draft a player that has his profile, where say 95% of the time that player busts and doesn't make it to the NHL, you're wasting your pick. If you're picking someone with that sort of probability of success and their only claim is being a "great skater" I think you need to review your selection process. There is a happy medium where NHL prospect models and traditional scouting can co-exist and this would be one of those instances where your model should give you pause before you make the selection.

Expecting to select a player with middle 6 or bottom pairing upside with every pick isn't ridiculous and it's the standard we should hold the team to. Not every pick will develop into an NHLer, but by selecting someone like Aucoin you're relying almost entirely on luck getting him to the NHL.

OK. But if the type of player you describe has a 5 percent chance of making the NHL, what percent chance to other 6th rounders have? 7 percent? Maybe 10?

I understand the logic, but we're talking about splitting hairs over guys that are inherently long shots to begin with.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

OK. But if the type of player you describe has a 5 percent chance of making the NHL, what percent chance to other 6th rounders have? 7 percent? Maybe 10?

I understand the logic, but we're talking about splitting hairs over guys that are inherently long shots to begin with.

It depends on the player. Someone like Pashin for example makes it to the NHL about 50% of the, Rory Kerins was about 45%, and someone like Yevgeni Oksentyuk was about 35%. While you're correct the average 6th rounder is at about 7%, the individual players that are available are sometimes much higher than their draft slot.

 

[Astyanax]

It depends on the player. Someone like Pashin for example makes it to the NHL about 50% of the, Rory Kerins was about 45%, and someone like Yevgeni Oksentyuk was about 35%. While you're correct the average 6th rounder is at about 7%, the individual players that are available are sometimes much higher than their draft slot.

6th rounders are all long shot to make it, granted. So the question is why not swing big.
If aucion makes it, he is 3rd pair but if pashin manages to crack the nhl it will be as a 2nd line dynamic playmaker.

 

[raymond23]

If a late round pick isn’t a small European winger with a hard to pronounce name, it usually gets criticized

 

[TheOtherOne]

It depends on the player. Someone like Pashin for example makes it to the NHL about 50% of the, Rory Kerins was about 45%, and someone like Yevgeni Oksentyuk was about 35%. While you're correct the average 6th rounder is at about 7%, the individual players that are available are sometimes much higher than their draft slot.

lol where are all these fantasy numbers coming from? Half of all the Pashins in the multiverse are NHL players?

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

lol where are all these fantasy numbers coming from? Half of all the Pashins in the multiverse are NHL players?

Spoiler: Pashin Chart

They're not fantasy numbers by any stretch, but feel free to "lol" at them. By most models Pashin was looking like an NHLer in most of them. In the one I've linked to players that follow his NHLe progression develop into NHLers, in this case defined as > 100 gp, 68% of the time and in 25% of the cases they've developed into start players, defined as > 0.70 points per game at the NHL. My own simple model had him ranked as a 25th overall pick and players in that ranking developed into an NHLer in about 50% of the cases.

 

[Oddbob]

This is Adrian's son, not Keith's

That makes it a little more exciting!

 

[Oddbob]

At least 2 Datsyuks and 3 Zetterbergs.

Some realism!

If we don't get at least half a Datsyuk at this point, we may as well fold up shop!

 

[Oddbob]

At 156th overall, all he has to do is play a handful of NHL game to be considered a "good use of the 156th overall pick".

Heck, if he even gets signed that is an accomplishment.

 

[WaW]

Weird pick because he's going to Harvard. You don't go to Harvard if you intend to turn pro at 19 or 20. He's gonna spend all 4 years there then be a free agent. Kinda feels like if he proves to be great value it won't matter because he'll choose where he plays after his senior year is done.

 

[Henkka]

Weird pick because he's going to Harvard. You don't go to Harvard if you intend to turn pro at 19 or 20. He's gonna spend all 4 years there then be a free agent. Kinda feels like if he proves to be great value it won't matter because he'll choose where he plays after his senior year is done.

Usually these guys will get signed earlier, like after 3 years, if the college hockey career goes well. Then they only have the one year to complete after a hockey career.