Golf: 149th Open Championship - July 15-July 18

[Say Hey Kid]

Morikawa in the catbird seat as Azinger would say. Louis playing some truly terrible golf right now.

Agreed. He has a lot left, but Collin is playing well.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

Bad miss for Morikawa on one of the hardest holes.

After that drive on 17, Rahm going 3-3 to finish seems very possible, and a little bit worrisome for the leaders.

 

[BMOK33]

Bad miss for Morikawa on one of the hardest holes.

After that drive on 17, Rahm going 3-3 to finish seems very possible, and a little bit worrisome for the leaders.

If he somehow saves this one, its just his day, he ain't being caught. He bogeys it as I would say its 90-95% he does then yeah this may be interesting

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Huge save from Morikawa. That might have just put it away for him.

The last 3 holes aren't very difficult.

 

[GKJ]

Two different majors in your first shot at them is nuts. Especially when one is the Open. Asserted himself as a high-level name now.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

I've always figured Hovland was the new guy with the highest ceiling because of how good his driving is, but Morikawa's iron play seemingly just keeps getting better. Generational stuff.

 

[Maestro84]

Great to see Spieth back in contention, what a charge he made today but those two lousy bogeys yesterday really cost him. Another tough one for Louis as well, so many close calls but still can’t become a multi time champ

With that said, the young man Morikawa is an absolute machine. When the going gets tough he gets tougher and he played some of the best links golf we’ve seen in quite some time. Crazy he’s already won 2 majors!!

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Morikawa is really a class act. Wonderful speech for a 24 year old. Still would rather have seen Speith win but quite a worthy winner.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Morikawa is in the ‘if his putter is decent he will win’ territory.

Ballstriking is out of this world good.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Congrats to Morikawa. He made putts when he had to today. I agree with the above comment that its really hard for him to not win when he makes putts. #1 all week in putting. His iron game this year has been absolutely insane. He's destroying everyone else in SG Approach this year.

I'm unconvinced he's going to be able to be that much better than everyone with his irons every year going forward. I simply don't think that level of iron play is sustainable. It's never been sustained and he's not exactly a good putter or a long hitter, but he'll stick around as one of the better players in the game over the upcoming years. Great iron player, accurate off the tee, good around the greens, and a very good golf IQ. Is he ever going to be one of the absolute top few guys? No, I don't think so because I don't think he plays a high ceiling game without great length or putting, but I can see him winning another few majors and playing another 20 years as a real top level golfer. It's very hard to think he won't win a lot with as well as he hits it.

It was predictable Louis wouldn't win, but I didn't think he'd be that uncompetitive. He was brutal today. I just can't get worked up feeling bad for a guy who never wins.

Jordan put himself in too much of an early hole today and gave himself no margin for error after the bad ending yesterday. Good fight back, but thats now four runners up in majors. 11 top 4's in majors. No majors this year. Sorry, but I don't look for the moral victories in all of it. It's frustrating. He's played great golf this year and is back to being the best in the world, in my opinion, but when it matters he hasn't putted well enough this year. He putted well today under pressure, but the putting in big spots, including the first three rounds, has hurt him all year. Hopefully next year is different. I don't think his game is all the way there yet.

 

[DueDiligence]

I'm unconvinced he's going to be able to be that much better than everyone with his irons every year going forward. I simply don't think that level of iron play is sustainable. It's never been sustained and he's not exactly a good putter or a long hitter, but he'll stick around as one of the better players in the game over the upcoming years. Great iron player, accurate off the tee, good around the greens, and a very good golf IQ. Is he ever going to be one of the absolute top few guys? No, I don't think so because I don't think he plays a high ceiling game without great length or putting, but I can see him winning another few majors and playing another 20 years as a real top level golfer. It's very hard to think he won't win a lot with as well as he hits it

So winning 2 majors and 2 other tournaments in the last calendar year doesn't make you one of the top guys??? I think your man crush on Speith is clouding your judgement.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

The NLU guys asked this question in their post-round, and I thought it was fun, so I'll ask it here: who of Morikawa, Rory, Spieth, or Brooks (or Phil, if we are to be truly fair) is the most likely to complete the career grand slam?

Keeping in mind that only 5 guys have ever done it with the modern definition of majors, my instinct is to say that none of them do, and I think that's probably going to be the case. That being said, if I had to pick one, it's actually more tough than I expected. My first thought was that it's obviously Spieth or Rory simply because they need 1 instead of 2. But Rory is just not doing it for me anymore, and I seriously wonder if he's ever going to win one again. Like it's one thing to play well in majors, which he certainly has, but it's another thing to put yourself in position to win them on Sunday, which he hasn't. Then, with Spieth, there's always the problem of his style of play. He's not dominating with the driver like most top guys do, and that's the direction the game is headed and has been heading for the past decade. We've already seen the downside of that with how he's slumped way harder than any of Collin, Rory, or Brooks the past three years, although with Collin and to a lesser extent Brooks they haven't been around the top level as long which means they've had less opportunity to enter into a slump. You only get one chance every year to complete the career grand slam, so it's not at all unreasonable to think that with a game that may not be geared towards consistency, that the stars might just not ever align for him there.

Then there's the other two. Morikawa is the flavour of the month and it's easy to say that he's just gonna win in bunches, but he also has the most glaring weakness to his game of any of them with his putting. We just saw this week what happens when his balky putter suddenly turns into Tiger's Scotty Cameron from 2000, but the vast majority of the time that's not going to happen for him. Plus, there's the obvious fact that he's the freshest on the scene and thus the least proven. Lastly, Brooks checks a lot of boxes for me but that health scares me a lot. He's by far the most frequently injured golfer of any of the top guys - unless you're still counting Tiger, or maybe Jason Day if you really want to stretch it - and that's the top way to lose elite form. I think you also have to wonder if he's really interested in investing himself to playing into his 40s. I think he cares more about golf than he wants everyone to think, but I do wonder if there's a hypothetical scenario where a decade or so from now, Brooks has suffered some injuries, lost a bit of form, and he just says he's had enough.

If I had to rank them by likelihood of winning the career grand slam, I'd probably go Brooks > Spieth > Rory > Morikawa. I think Morikawa wins a couple more majors but not the grand slam, I think Rory comes close but doesn't win any more majors, Spieth comes close as well but wins multiple majors aside from the PGA, and Brooks just keeps putting himself in position to win enough that he has the best chance to get it done. With all that in mind, I might as well start preparing myself for Phil to go ahead and win the US Open before any of these guys do it.

 

[Maestro84]

The NLU guys asked this question in their post-round, and I thought it was fun, so I'll ask it here: who of Morikawa, Rory, Spieth, or Brooks (or Phil, if we are to be truly fair) is the most likely to complete the career grand slam?

Keeping in mind that only 5 guys have ever done it with the modern definition of majors, my instinct is to say that none of them do, and I think that's probably going to be the case. That being said, if I had to pick one, it's actually more tough than I expected. My first thought was that it's obviously Spieth or Rory simply because they need 1 instead of 2. But Rory is just not doing it for me anymore, and I seriously wonder if he's ever going to win one again. Like it's one thing to play well in majors, which he certainly has, but it's another thing to put yourself in position to win them on Sunday, which he hasn't. Then, with Spieth, there's always the problem of his style of play. He's not dominating with the driver like most top guys do, and that's the direction the game is headed and has been heading for the past decade. We've already seen the downside of that with how he's slumped way harder than any of Collin, Rory, or Brooks the past three years, although with Collin and to a lesser extent Brooks they haven't been around the top level as long which means they've had less opportunity to enter into a slump. You only get one chance every year to complete the career grand slam, so it's not at all unreasonable to think that with a game that may not be geared towards consistency, that the stars might just not ever align for him there.

Then there's the other two. Morikawa is the flavour of the month and it's easy to say that he's just gonna win in bunches, but he also has the most glaring weakness to his game of any of them with his putting. We just saw this week what happens when his balky putter suddenly turns into Tiger's Scotty Cameron from 2000, but the vast majority of the time that's not going to happen for him. Plus, there's the obvious fact that he's the freshest on the scene and thus the least proven. Lastly, Brooks checks a lot of boxes for me but that health scares me a lot. He's by far the most frequently injured golfer of any of the top guys - unless you're still counting Tiger, or maybe Jason Day if you really want to stretch it - and that's the top way to lose elite form. I think you also have to wonder if he's really interested in investing himself to playing into his 40s. I think he cares more about golf than he wants everyone to think, but I do wonder if there's a hypothetical scenario where a decade or so from now, Brooks has suffered some injuries, lost a bit of form, and he just says he's had enough.

If I had to rank them by likelihood of winning the career grand slam, I'd probably go Brooks > Spieth > Rory > Morikawa. I think Morikawa wins a couple more majors but not the grand slam, I think Rory comes close but doesn't win any more majors, Spieth comes close as well but wins multiple majors aside from the PGA, and Brooks just keeps putting himself in position to win enough that he has the best chance to get it done. With all that in mind, I might as well start preparing myself for Phil to go ahead and win the US Open before any of these guys do it.

It’s gotta be Spieth. Only 27/28 years old and the PGA course changes every year, hard to imagine him not eventually winning one. As long as he doesn’t fall off for a few years again like he did from 2018-2020, it’s difficult to see Jordan not winning a bunch of more majors.

I know Phil just won a major but let’s face it, that’s almost certainly not happening again at his age especially not an event he’s never won and always has the pressure to. He’s 51 guys cmon now lol

Rory probably isn’t winning a masters either. He had two hacks at it within 5 months and was never even close. He’ll still win more majors but I think he’s gonna end up like Phil at USO

Brooks probably can to if he stays healthy and motivated. When you’re always putting yourself in contention eventually wins are going to be come along. I put him below Spieth though because he still has 2 more legs to go and he’s 3 years older.

Collin it’s still too early to tell. Hopefully he doesn’t experience a major slump like Jordan did but his game does seem significantly more steady than Spieth’s. The Masters will be the hardest event for Collin to win since he doesn’t quite have the distance in his drives or putting prowess that’s required to win a green jacket.

 

[Maestro84]

Here's a crazy realization.

Despite only being pro for less than 2 years, Morikawa has already won more majors than JT, Rahm, Day, Couples, DeChambeau, Garcia, Rose, Scott, Reed, Duval, Furyk, Stenson, and Louis O.

He's also now won the same number of majors as DJ, Norman, Langer, Crenshaw, Goosen, B. Watson, Olazabal, Daly, Miller, Strange, and his mentor, O'Meara.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think you have to go with the guys with 3 majors as the most likely to be the first to the career grand slam. Even Phil is probably more likely to win the US Open than Morikawa and Koepka winning two other majors. Not only do they have to win two more majors, but they have to win two different majors.

And I don't buy this idea that the reason Rory and Jordan aren't yet at the career grand slam is due to those majors being harder for them to win. Rory's troubles right now are in every major. They could be said to be in every tournament. The McIlroy we are seeing now, in all tournaments, is a different golfer. He doesn't seem to have the same level of desire to be the best as he had 10 years ago. It may be burnout, it may be that his life priorities are now different, or it could be something else. We don't know, but Rory's problem is not Augusta.

I'm not sure there is a real problem with Jordan at the PGA. You can't really ask why he didn't win the PGA in 2018-2020, considering his golf game was the problem then. It wasn't a problem that only applied to this tournament. Now he's back to a very high level of golf, and should have a better chance to win this tournament over the upcoming years. These top players can win on any course on any given week, even if it doesn't suit their game. He's also statistically been better at the PGA as opposed to a major like the US Open with the noticeable difference being that no one played the week of their career at the 2015 US Open and someone did at the 2015 PGA. Sometimes that happens, just as it did last week with him putting up the second best losing 72 hole Open score ever. It's just how it is. This era of golf is completely different than any era we've seen.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'm expanding a little on my point above.

Majors are just harder to win in general now, and this is something I've started to revise my opinion on. I think five years ago I would've said that the top players are going to be a very stable group of 4-5 players who are able to put up the stats of the top players of the 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's, 00's, regardless of that there is more depth now. My thinking was that they'd still get their wins and rise to the occasion for the simple fact that they were the best talents, and they'd put a gap between themselves and the next best in the biggest events when it matters. However, we are starting to see that this era of gap is more about parity and a product that is week to week better because you see someone different putting up their A game as opposed to Player or Mickelson grinding out a win with their B- game.

There may still be a similar top group of the best talents, but it's not showing out consistently in who wins what tournament and who places where in the World Rankings. I think a small part of that is that there's less motivation now than there might've been 30 or 40 years ago. None of these guys are paying to put food on the table for their family. They may be consumed with other things outside of golf, which leads to the musical chairs at the top of the rankings. At the same time, it may be that the baseline for each level of golfer is higher now than before. People marvel at that run of Open finishes Nicklaus had in his prime where he went 18 years with only 2 finishes outside the top 5 with the worst being T12. But how many people could actually beat him back then? He was playing a different game than almost the whole field. It's impressive, but how impressive, considering he faced like 1/3 of the talent that the top players face now?

I think we need to revise how we look at expectations for these players. If 30-35 players show up at these majors with a chance to win, is it really so improbable that Rory goes 27 majors without winning one? Statistically speaking, he's simply probably reverting more to an expected percentage after having a great early run. I think the days of anyone sustaining a historic pace are probably over. Too much depth. For all the talk about how many majors Morikawa may win, this may be it. He may be a two major win player that gets his two in his first two years, and thats it. He may have had the breaks go his way his first two years, and maybe he won't have them go his way the next 20 years.

I'm not sure I've completely decided how I should look at this, but I don't think these great all-time players we talk about have the same totals playing in this era. They might go through some of the exact problems the best players of the current era go through, if they had to face the challenges that the current players face. I'm usually someone that doesn't like the answers when people say you can't compare across eras. I still don't like it applying it to golf, but I think there's some merit to the idea that we are in an era where the bigger picture is that there are 2-3 times as many top level players as there ever has been and it leads to a better quality of golf that we are seeing on a weekly basis and in the biggest moments, so the individual plight of certain golfers may more be a footnote than the main storyline. The bigger picture is the depth of the sport, and the smaller picture is probably that these top names that we talk about what's wrong with them at any particular point probably are just facing normal challenges of being a top player in this era.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Don't compare CM or anyone with the ballstriking of Tiger. There's no one in the history of the game that could miss fairways this badly and shoot a 64 on Sunday at a Major.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Tiger is the best ball striker to ever live.

Colin is the best on tour by a significant margin right now. Putting at the PGA level is so finnicky, anyone can get hot for a week. If I had to choose one or the other it is ballstriking every time.

2/8 in majors is damn impressive. Best young guy out there right now imo. A level up from Wolff/Hovland/Niemann.