GDT: #14| Montreal Canadiens @ New York Islanders | November 5th | 7:00 PM | F/4-3 SOL

gadiamon72

Registered User
Jun 13, 2013
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Beau needs a kick start. Better happen quick. With the numbers Barzal has been putting up in Bridgeport, there could be a swap in the near future.

I see tonight as a low scoring game. 3-2 Isles.
 

crasherino

Registered User
May 9, 2013
7,333
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Beau needs a kick start. Better happen quick. With the numbers Barzal has been putting up in Bridgeport, there could be a swap in the near future.

I see tonight as a low scoring game. 3-2 Isles.

Not sure who you meant to put there....MDC?
 

danteipp

Registered User
Aug 3, 2005
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i woudlnt bring up MDC any time soon - let him keep doing this for 40 games before we even think about it - 3 weeks ago we wanted to trade him for a 5th rounder...

Agreed. Let him keep playing well and (hopefully) build confidence in the AHL for a while longer. And I think that applies for any of MDC, Bellows, Toews, Aho, JHS, etc. That way when they are really needed, due to injury or long-term struggles at the NHL level, they are ready to step in and blend in seamlessly.

Having quality young players at the AHL level is a luxury and should hopefully help the Isles ride out the marathon that is an NHL season. The Isles finally have a nice blend of top-six forwards (including three playing for contracts), solid vet depth on the bottom six and young players who should be ready to slot in soon.

That said, this seems like a prime game for Beauvillier to break out. Hopefully he plays well against Montreal and can get untracked.
 

13th Floor

Registered User
Oct 10, 2008
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What's bizarre is that we have a reason to root against JT, given his bull story and actions. They really have no reason to pray for our downfall - who knew a little Isles success could get them so riled up. Perhaps the onset buyers remorse?

It's because some of our fans are just as annoying when they troll Leaf fans about JT.
 
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danteipp

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Aug 3, 2005
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What's bizarre is that we have a reason to root against JT, given his bull story and actions. They really have no reason to pray for our downfall - who knew a little Isles success could get them so riled up. Perhaps the onset buyers remorse?

I assume the juxtaposition between all of the chatter about how great and important their franchise is by the local talking heads, contrasted by the fact that they haven't won since 1967, has caused quite a few to become unhinged.

They will lash out anyone/anything that enters their orbit. It is probably a kind of Stockholm syndrome for many of them.
 
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doublechili

For all intensive purposes, your nuts
Apr 11, 2006
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With all of this PDO crap, our alternate post-win song could be "Unforgettable", but with "Unsustainable" substituted as the lyric.
 
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Islanders4Cups

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May 4, 2002
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Do this board actually understand what PDO is though?

Yes. What I don’t understand is the Isles are at the top of the league for team PDO which is supposed to be some measurement of luck? Why does this apply to the Islanders but not league leading Nashville?

The Isles are at the bottom of the league in Corsi and Fenwick though.

My sense is there is not enough data early in the season. It is too early to rush to judgements on the outcome of the season based on a dozen or so games.

I also know you can’t rely on stats alone.

I understand we see what we see, a team that is more defensively responsible which is giving their goalies a better chance of making saves. There is an air of confidence with our goaltenders and I think confidence was low last year.
No one has shown me a stat on confidence level yet.

Also we see 4 lines contributing, meaning the Isles have only one guy in the top 30 in scoring yet are harder to play against as their third and fourth lines are cashing in with points every night. That is my assessment. No guarantees, just that they are a better team now than they were for the majority of last season.
 
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crasherino

Registered User
May 9, 2013
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I fully expect a trip back down to earth and a 5-1 habs win. I also expected that vs NJ on Saturday so....

Letdown game incoming. Greiss getting 3 in a row smells like we'll be getting a stinker from him.

5-1 Frogs

I'm a fan of the reverse jinx too. We do this for the next 65 games or so, we're like a shoo-in for first place.
 

doublechili

For all intensive purposes, your nuts
Apr 11, 2006
18,433
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rice%20mice%20vanilla%20lemon%20cookies-250x250.jpg
 

Frankie41987

Registered User
Feb 1, 2007
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Kings Park
Yes. What I don’t understand is the Isles are at the top of the league for team PDO which is supposed to be some measurement of luck? Why does this apply to the Islanders but not league leading Nashville?

The Isles are at the bottom of the league in Corsi and Fenwick though.

My sense is there is not enough data early in the season. It is too early to rush to judgements on the outcome of the season based on a dozen or so games.

I also know you can’t rely on stats alone.

I understand we see what we see, a team that is more defensively responsible which is giving their goalies a better chance of making saves. There is an air of confidence with our goaltenders and I think confidence was low last year.
No one has shown me a stat on confidence level yet.

Also we see 4 lines contributing, meaning the Isles have only one guy in the top 30 in scoring yet are harder to play against as their third and fourth lines are cashing in with points every night. That is my assessment. No guarantees, just that they are a better team now than they were for the majority of last season.

Because PDO itself doesn't mean that you are playing bad, only that it tends to regress at a pretty remarkably reliable rate. Every single year in the last 10 seasons the range of PDO by the end of the season for the worst team to the best team was 97 - 102, +/- .5. Every season, it's always that range. The only team to finish outside that range was Washington in 2009 with a PDO of 103. So if you are above or below that range, it's almost definite that you will regress back into that range. The isles are at 105 currently, so it's very likely by the end of the season they will regress into that range.

If your success is largely explained by your shooting percentage or sv% (so very bad shot differentials or very bad high quality shot differentials) then it's a fair argument that you will not sustain your success once your PDO starts regressing. Nashville has much better shot differentials and high quality scoring differentials compared to NYI. We are ranked 2nd to last in both those categories. That said, the islanders play has been improving this year as time goes on according to both corsi and HD shot differential.
 

doublechili

For all intensive purposes, your nuts
Apr 11, 2006
18,433
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I'm not too worried about this PDO thing. I'm sure Trotz will hold a team meeting and tell the boys that even though they're winning they need to improve their PDO numbers to quell the resistance on the HF main board.
 

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