Prospect Info: #13 Nico Hischier: "I love to hockey" Part II

[Classic Devil]

it gives him a 72% chance. he's in the 100th percentile (rounded up you can't be in the 100th percentile)

Ah, so I see. My mistake.

 

[HBK27]

it gives him a 72% chance. he's in the 100th percentile (rounded up you can't be in the 100th percentile)

Might as well be close to 100% though, when you consider a bust like Yakupov has already played 292 games in the NHL.

 

[MartyOwns]

https://www.nhl.com/flyers/news/fly...mer-showcase--philadelphia-flyers/c-290528098



Sounds like he's not out of the woods yet with his latest surgery. He might be fine, like you say, but I don't think it's unfair to bring it up as a concern. It's not a risk we could afford to take.

i think that particular injury was well-known. but yes, i agree that there are probably some justified concerns there, i would just hesitate to say we dodged a bullet when both of their nhl careers are in the infancy stage. or the fertilization stage even i guess

 

[ChicoEatsNachos]

If you go to twitter.com/devilsinsiders they have a teespring link for their own "I love to hockey" t-shirts and hoodies that they're selling. They look quite different from the official Devils shirts, and are available until Friday

 

[glenwo2]

Im sure a lot of fans we're in the same boat as you. Initially I had zero problem if we went with him, but the more I read up on his injury history, it scared me away.

Philly fans are already going a little nuts about it and I even read an article from one Philly paper the other day about how one of his recent injuries could've been career ending.

Never something you want to see about an 18 year old, especially if he was wearing a Devils uni.

Too bad for the flyers. I feel sooo bad for them.

(of course NP could recover and be the beast he's expected to be but as of right now, Nico turned out to not only be the best choice.....but the wisest choice as well. IN SHERO WE TRUST.)

 

[BenTGrieco]

Nico Hischier: The New...Jersey Devil

Hi everyone!

Nico Hischier is one of the newest Devils for New Jersey. He made history as the first Swiss-born first overall pick. But, will he make an immediate impact? Will he be a Swiss-Hit, or a Swiss-Miss? I hope you enjoy my article. Thanks for the look!

http://wincolumnsports.ca/nico-hischier-predictions/

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Mr. Fantasy Football, Trevor Eliott*“Hischier is a decent player, but I think he’s going to disappoint. Especially in the Devils’ slow style game, he’ll be lucky to score 15 [goals] with a 40 point total. He’s the NHL’s next Yakupov.”

That guy should stick to fantasy football.

Also, I wouldn't call Zajac a "strong offensive player".

 

[HBK27]

Mr. Fantasy Football, Trevor Eliott*“Hischier is a decent player, but I think he’s going to disappoint. Especially in the Devils’ slow style game, he’ll be lucky to score 15 [goals] with a 40 point total. He’s the NHL’s next Yakupov.â€

That guy should stick to fantasy football.

Also, I wouldn't call Zajac a "strong offensive player".

Yeah, Mr. Fantasy Football is really on the mark with this team - Shero and Hynes have really been pushing the slow style game these past two seasons.

This is honestly one of the worst written articles I've seen in a long time.

From getting basic facts wrong (Devils play in Metro division, not Atlantic), to calling out Hall and Zajac as our "strong offensive players", to somehow deciding that Stafford, Butcher and Lovejoy are the 3 players (in addition to the obvious Hall) that the article should focus on when looking at the rest of the team and how they could support Hischier. Ben ****ing Lovejoy.

But the worst part is just the overall grammar and writing. I didn't start this post wanting to totally rip this article since this kid (there's no way this can come from a professional writer) came on to these boards to present his work and I don't just want to be an *******, but this is truly a steaming pile of ****. The more I go back and read it, the worse it gets. Hopefully the writer is like Mirco Mueller - in case he happens to read this post, let me explain who that is since you may not be familiar with Devils players beyond the stars like Hall, Zajac and Lovejoy. He's a guy that has some potential (which hopefully you have as well as a writer), but hasn't shown a lick of it so far in the NHL (i.e. this steaming pile of trash that your keyboard threw up). Maybe Les Nunes believes in you (i.e. Shero giving up a 2nd round pick) and it'll pay off. Hang in there and keep writing as that's the only way to get better, but I would hope you would focus on trying to become a better writer versus just hammering out content for page clicks. Even with that though, there are enough grammatical mistakes in this article that I wonder if you even went back and read it once to fix them before publishing this.

 

[Better Call Sal]

I think the less I say about that article, the better.

Glad we got input from the wrestling fanatic and Mr. Fantasy Football, though.

 

[ForeverJerseyGirl]

There are some good points in the article, but I think they kind of get overshadowed by the fact that there doesn't seem to be that much knowledge of the Devils in it (which is fine to an extent, I get that the Devils have been bad since circa 2012 and are seen as not exciting, but such instances will be jarring for Devils fans who are more familiar with the team than this article seems to be).

-The article talks about Nico needing support from the team to help him be successful, and I would agree with that. The article does talk about the forward support of Taylor Hall but seems to think that there is nobody else to provide any offensive support on the Devils besides Hall and Zajac. That's really not true there are also guys like Kyle Palmieri and Adam Henrique and the newly acquired Johansson. I don't know why the article mentions Drew Stafford over Johansson, Palmieri, and Henrique. Those guys are going to be more important offensively to the Devils than someone like Stafford, who is probably just going to be used in more of a depth role. With Nico and with Zacha hopefully taking a step forward this year, I actually think that the Devils forward corps should be fine this year, and even with Zajac out, Nico should have a good amount of veteran support from forwards.

-The article talks about the Devils defense and brings up Lovejoy rather than Andy Greene (Greene is a far superior player than Lovejoy). Overall the Devils defense corps is fairly weak this year, so that is a true concern (more of a concern for me than the forwards, to be honest) but Greene definitely deserves a mention over Lovejoy.

-"Hischier is a decent player, but I think he’s going to disappoint. Especially in the Devils’ slow style game, he’ll be lucky to score 15 [goals] with a 40 point total. He’s the NHL’s next Yakupov." Couple of problems with this. The Devils are moving to a faster style of play, and have acquired players much more conducive to quick playing (including Nico). Is the 15 goals with 40 points a prediction for next season? If so, that might be fair or even a bit high. Is it a prediction for a career high? If that's the case, it's pretty ridiculous given that players like Henrique and Palmieri have hit thirty goal milestones here. And what's with the Yakupov comparison? In terms of style of play, they don't seem to have much in common--Nail relied on his shot, while Nico is more of a playmaker--and Nico's hockey IQ is described as much higher than Nail's.

-I would agree that Nico does not compare to Matthews or McDavid but I think that more proves that those two (Matthews and McDavid) are exceptional talents than that Nico is disappointing. I suppose that's a matter of perspective. If you expect every draft class to yield a Matthews or a McDavid, then, yeah, Nico is a disappointment, but I'm not convinced that expecting every first overall pick to be Matthews or McDavid is fair. I guess I believe there is a lot of middle ground between McDavid or Matthews and bust.

Bottom line is I think the article had some good points and questions but the writing was held back by a lack of research into the Devils and by a lack of clarity. Maybe a bit more editing and expanding on ideas would help

 

[Tretyak 20]

The Devils have an excellent forward core if you look at guys 26 and under. Hall, Henrique, Palmieri, Johansson, Hischier, Zacha. Assuming both Hischier and Zacha come close to hitting their ceilings, that's an incredibly talented, smart and fast top 6. It's also a way above average two-way group who will support their D.

Behind those guys we have a huge group of solid prospects to challenge that group, provide depth and maybe facilitate future trades. McLeod, Anderson, Boqvist, Bastian, Zetterlund, Popugayev, Gignac, Speers, Blandisi, Bratt, etc... That's enough solid prospects that we're all but guaranteed a couple will work out. Not sure why anyone would choose to focus on Stafford and Lovejoy instead.

And the comparison of Hischier to Yakupov is laughable. I assume he cherry-picked that simply because Yakupov is the ONLY significant 1st overall bust in the last 17 years? Before the draft I actually went and compared Yakupov's pre-draft write-ups to Hischier's. Yak was widely praised for his work ethic and skills, but that was it. Hischier got most of the same kind of accolades, but was also always very highly praised for an amazing hockey IQ. All his coaches (including Marc Crawford - a multiple Cup winner) went out of their way to say how smart a player his was. Players with sky-high hockey IQ simply aren't high bust risks. In the modern NHL a player with excellent IQ and above-average mobility is virtually bust-proof. I highly doubt Hischier will ever be on the level of Matthews or McDavid, but Yakupov? Laughable.

 

[FooteBahl]

The Devils have an excellent forward core if you look at guys 26 and under. Hall, Henrique, Palmieri, Johansson, Hischier, Zacha. Assuming both Hischier and Zacha come close to hitting their ceilings, that's an incredibly talented, smart and fast top 6. It's also a way above average two-way group who will support their D.

Behind those guys we have a huge group of solid prospects to challenge that group, provide depth and maybe facilitate future trades. McLeod, Anderson, Boqvist, Bastian, Zetterlund, Popugayev, Gignac, Speers, Blandisi, Bratt, etc... That's enough solid prospects that we're all but guaranteed a couple will work out. Not sure why anyone would choose to focus on Stafford and Lovejoy instead.

And the comparison of Hischier to Yakupov is laughable. I assume he cherry-picked that simply because Yakupov is the ONLY significant 1st overall bust in the last 17 years? Before the draft I actually went and compared Yakupov's pre-draft write-ups to Hischier's. Yak was widely praised for his work ethic and skills, but that was it. Hischier got most of the same kind of accolades, but was also always very highly praised for an amazing hockey IQ. All his coaches (including Marc Crawford - a multiple Cup winner) went out of their way to say how smart a player his was. Players with sky-high hockey IQ simply aren't high bust risks. In the modern NHL a player with excellent IQ and above-average mobility is virtually bust-proof. I highly doubt Hischier will ever be on the level of Matthews or McDavid, but Yakupov? Laughable.

I agree that he will not reach McDavid levels, but what about a Tavares-like career. Is that too outlandish?

 

[Tretyak 20]

I agree that he will not reach McDavid levels, but what about a Tavares-like career. Is that too outlandish?

I don't think that's outlandish. I personally think Nico will put up consistent 70-80 pts seasons in his prime, which is just a little shy of Tavares' level. The big difference is that Nico will likely get consistent Selke consideration throughout his prime.

 

[Devils731]

I agree that he will not reach McDavid levels, but what about a Tavares-like career. Is that too outlandish?

While we never know how good prospects will become or not become; I think it unlikely that Hischier reaches Tavares levels, of course I also think Tavares is one of the best players in the league.

Also, look at how Tavares destroyed juniors when he played. Tavares would easily be drafted ahead of Hischier if in the same draft.

 

[FooteBahl]

I don't think that's outlandish. I personally think Nico will put up consistent 70-80 pts seasons in his prime, which is just a little shy of Tavares' level. The big difference is that Nico will likely get consistent Selke consideration throughout his prime.

I'll take just shy of Tavares because I think Nico will be surrounded by a much better supporting cast than what the Islanders have given him.

 

[JimEIV]

I'd sign up for 15 goals and 40 points right now!

 

[None Shall Pass]

I'd sign up for 15 goals and 40 points right now!

Seriously, same here.

I'll be happy if he breaks 35 points this year. That's not a knock on him, we're just not a very good team.

 

[VoidCreature]

Seriously, same here.

I'll be happy if he breaks 35 points this year. That's not a knock on him, we're just not a very good team.

That's absolutely a knock, if that's what you expect. The last 1st overall forward to score at a 35 point pace or lower in his rookie season was Patrik Stefan. The last 1st overall to score at a lower than 45 point pace was Rick Nash.

Now, obviously Joe Thornton only had 7 points his first year, so it's not the end of the world if Nico has a disastrous first season, but it is historically very unlikely that will happen.

Seems like we've been conditioned to expect the worst of our young players.

 

[NJDevs26]

We're conditioned to expect the worst from forwards period

 

[Triumph]

That's absolutely a knock, if that's what you expect. The last 1st overall forward to score at a 35 point pace or lower in his rookie season was Patrik Stefan. The last 1st overall to score at a lower than 45 point pace was Rick Nash.

Now, obviously Joe Thornton only had 7 points his first year, so it's not the end of the world if Nico has a disastrous first season, but it is historically very unlikely that will happen.

Seems like we've been conditioned to expect the worst of our young players.

Hischier's junior numbers are worse than most 1st overall picks and so I feel like anyone who's expecting him to jump in and be a definite 1st line/2nd line player right away in Year 1 will end up disappointed. Comparing him to forwards who had his junior numbers is a much more sensible thing than comparing him to 1st overall picks.

 

[Zippy316]

I'm hoping for a Datsyuk/Elias career from him. More Elias-tier than Datsyuk.

Nothing too earth shattering, but a solid first liner who does everything right with some skill added in there. He may put up 80-95 points for a couple years, but will always be a guarantee for 60-65 points.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Yeah, I'd be happy with a Parise like player at the center position. That is to say Parise type production. The fact is this was a weak draft and there was no great talent in this draft. I do believe we got the best player, but I don't believe we got a guy in the Tavares or Stamkos realm. And that's fine. We got a very good player that will certainly be a key piece.

 

[VoidCreature]

Hischier's junior numbers are worse than most 1st overall picks and so I feel like anyone who's expecting him to jump in and be a definite 1st line/2nd line player right away in Year 1 will end up disappointed. Comparing him to forwards who had his junior numbers is a much more sensible thing than comparing him to 1st overall picks.

This presumes pure math expresses where a player can or should be taken in the draft. Jonathan Drouin (2.14) had a significantly higher points per game than Nathan Mackinnon (1.70), yet Mackinnon went first. And Duchene, who is better than both of them, only put up 1.37 in his draft year. In 2011, Gabriel Landeskog (1.24) went ahead of Jonathan Huberdeau (1.56). Both of them went ahead of Sean Couturier (1.65).

We can put together a range of outcomes using PPG, but I don't think a .2 or .3 difference in draft years between prospects can adequately predict a particular player's trajectory. That's why we have scouting teams.

What we can tell for certain is where Hischier went in the draft, and how that position relates to history. Only one forward chosen first overall in the last 18 years produced lower than .5 in his first NHL season.

 

[Triumph]

This presumes pure math expresses where a player can or should be taken in the draft. Jonathan Drouin (2.14) had a significantly higher points per game than Nathan Mackinnon (1.70), yet Mackinnon went first. And Duchene, who is better than both of them, only put up 1.37 in his draft year. In 2011, Gabriel Landeskog (1.24) went ahead of Jonathan Huberdeau (1.56). Both of them went ahead of Sean Couturier (1.65).

We can put together a range of outcomes using PPG, but I don't think a .2 or .3 difference in draft years between prospects can adequately predict a particular player's trajectory. That's why we have scouting teams.

What we can tell for certain is where Hischier went in the draft, and how that position relates to history. Only one forward chosen first overall in the last 18 years produced lower than .5 in his first NHL season.

This is some fine research, but it's missing the central point - yeah, teams don't just go down the list of top PPG players and pick the best guy, but Hischier wasn't competing against other 1st overall picks to be selected this year, and thus there's no reason to compare them to him - he was the 1st overall pick in 2017. Given the enormous range of outcomes for 1st overall picks - while most are superstars, some have had average to above average careers and some have had far worse than that - I don't really think it's a fair comparison. Some years there just isn't really a star player taken high.

Looking at that list is just setting yourself up for disappointment because Hischier doesn't quite have the resume that a lot of these other guys did. He is simply not a player on the level of a Stamkos or Tavares, not yet.

 

[NJDevs26]

Roger Federer commenting on Nico in this: