12 games in, what's your guess about where we'll end up

  • Thread starter BiggestLeafsFanEVER*
  • Start date

pucci2001

Registered User
Jun 3, 2012
1,607
30
I put leafs win the cup because I think we have a chance to win it, I wouldn't say we are favorites but never count us out so why limit hopes/expectations. I also don't doubt Nonis might have a trick or two up his sleeve going forward. I can't wait to see our actual team and not a patched up one lol.
 

ponder

Registered User
Jul 11, 2007
16,928
6,217
Vancouver
As good as we've been, it will still be *somewhat* of a challenge to make the playoffs. In the Atlantic there are 6 potential playoff teams (Toronto, Boston, Detroit, Tampa, Montreal and Ottawa), but 1-2 will have to miss the playoffs, I don't think anyone is a true lock to make the playoffs in the Atlantic.

With that being said, if I had to guess I'd have us finishing 2nd-3rd in our division, with Boston and Detroit occupying the other 2 top 3 spots. We'd then face either Boston or Detroit in the 1st round, and could definitely beat either one, though I think we'd be slight underdogs against either of those teams. We're good enough to have at least a decent chance against any team in the league though, so as long as we make the playoffs, who knows how far we go!

If you assume we have a 90% chance to make the playoffs, then a 45% chance to win any given series, this would be the probabilities of each of the OP's options:

3.7% - Leafs win the cup
4.5% - Leafs lose in the stanley cup final
10.0% - Leafs lose in the eastern conference final
22.3% - Leafs lose in the second round of the playoffs
49.5% - Leafs lose in the first round of the playoffs
10.0% - Leafs miss the playoffs

Based on this I voted "Leafs lose in the first round of the playoffs", but really we could end up anywhere if we make the playoffs.
 
Last edited:

ponder

Registered User
Jul 11, 2007
16,928
6,217
Vancouver
Note that even if you were going to be very optimistic, and say that we have a 99% chance to make the playoffs, and a 65% chance to win any given round, these would be the odds:

17.7% - Leafs win the cup
9.5% - Leafs lose in the stanley cup final
14.6% - Leafs lose in the eastern conference final
22.5% - Leafs lose in the second round of the playoffs
34.7% - Leafs lose in the first round of the playoffs
1.0% - Leafs miss the playoffs

Our most likely finish would still be a 1st round loss, because that's simply the most likely finish for pretty much any playoff team. Once you make the playoffs you will have somewhere around a 50% chance of losing in round 1, but only around 25% chance of losing in round 2 (50% chance of winning in round 1 times a 50% chance of losing in round 2).

So, based simply on the way the poll was written, the logical choice is "losing in round 1," but virtually nobody is voting for it. For losing in round 2 to be most likely, you have to be a major favourite in round 1 AND a major underdog in round 2.
 

mikebel111*

Guest
Anything can happen but plz dont say we are playoffs lock. There are still a number of things that need to be worked on, ofcourse should get better but we are not a lock IMO
 

phillycheesekessel

Registered User
Jan 16, 2012
76
0
Toronto, Ontario
Note that even if you were going to be very optimistic, and say that we have a 99% chance to make the playoffs, and a 65% chance to win any given round, these would be the odds:

17.7% - Leafs win the cup
9.5% - Leafs lose in the stanley cup final
14.6% - Leafs lose in the eastern conference final
22.5% - Leafs lose in the second round of the playoffs
34.7% - Leafs lose in the first round of the playoffs
1.0% - Leafs miss the playoffs

Our most likely finish would still be a 1st round loss, because that's simply the most likely finish for pretty much any playoff team. Once you make the playoffs you will have somewhere around a 50% chance of losing in round 1, but only around 25% chance of losing in round 2 (50% chance of winning in round 1 times a 50% chance of losing in round 2).

So, based simply on the way the poll was written, the logical choice is "losing in round 1," but virtually nobody is voting for it. For losing in round 2 to be most likely, you have to be a major favourite in round 1 AND a major underdog in round 2.

LOL where did you pull those numbers from?
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
As good as we've been, it will still be *somewhat* of a challenge to make the playoffs. In the Atlantic there are 6 potential playoff teams (Toronto, Boston, Detroit, Tampa, Montreal and Ottawa), but 1-2 will have to miss the playoffs, I don't think anyone is a true lock to make the playoffs in the Atlantic.

With that being said, if I had to guess I'd have us finishing 2nd-3rd in our division, with Boston and Detroit occupying the other 2 top 3 spots. We'd then face either Boston or Detroit in the 1st round, and could definitely beat either one, though I think we'd be slight underdogs against either of those teams. We're good enough to have at least a decent chance against any team in the league though, so as long as we make the playoffs, who knows how far we go!

I still don't get the people who are handing Detroit an automatic top spot in the conference.
 

Kingstonian84*

Registered User
Sep 23, 2012
2,388
0
If we keep playing like we have for 12 out of the 15 games like we have been this season I think we sink to the bottom of the conference. You cannot expect your goalies to stop 95% of their shots, even a .920% is a bit above average, lets say we continue giving up 40 shots a game even if Reimer and Bernier muster up a .920% we're still giving up 3 goals a game and really its hard to score 4 plus a night, so yea the losses will start piling up.

Now, if we can somehow smarten up and lower the shots against to the high 20's, and we continue getting timely scoring from our key cogs plus solid goaltending I see us fighting for the division lead.

Really it could go both ways right about now.
 

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