10 Questions to consider for draft geeks

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Hiishawk, Jun 21, 2011.

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  1. Hiishawk

    Hiishawk Registered User

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    Long time, no post.

    Some people might remeember me as a poster who used to draw up a late season top 60, based on a combination of my own observations (as an ex-NHL sout) and a number of insider chats with scouts and other in-the-pocket hockey people. Now that there are seemingly dozens of scouting sites and services I don't think I can add much to what most draft fans already know or can soon find out.

    Instead I offer ten questions. Feel free to post your answers...

    1. Who goes #10? Just about everyone seems to agree (and this has been confirmed by Bob Mackenzie) that nine players stand out above the others. So- who goes right after that?

    2. Who will be the 2nd goalie taken (assuming that J. Gibson goes first)? My pick: Magnus Hellberg

    3. Which REAL sleepers will move up into the top 60 (I mean players you haven't seen ranked in anyone's top 60 yet). My answer: Brennan Serville, from Stouffville (OPJHL) (Ok- Bobby M stole a bit of my thunder by making him the 60th ranked player on TSN's very recent list). Watch for non-American USHSers Eddie Wittchow, Peter Placek and Mike McKee to possibly surprise too.

    4. Who are the first round sleepers (not yet on anyone's top 30 picks)? My picks: Philip Danault and, a real outsider, Gregory Hofmann.

    5. Who will be the 8th Swede taken? Almost everyone assumes that Larsson, Landeskog, Brodin, Klefbom, Rask, Zibanejad, and Rackell will be the top 7. Who's next?

    6. Who will be the 8th WHLer taken? Most people have RNH, McNeill, Rattie, Bartschi, Musil, Morrow, and Siemens as the 7 best. Who goes 8th? My pick: I thought Bob M's Edmundson choice was a good one (damn, I should have posted this message a few days earlier!). Myles Bell would have been this player a month back but...

    7. Who will be the first re-entry player taken? It looks to be a toss up between Noebels, Hellberg, or Kichton. Outside shots come from Dahlberg and, as a reach, Notre Dame's Tynan. My pick is Hellberg.

    8. Who will be the 2nd NCAA player taken? Oleksiak is pretty much a sure thing for the first round but who goes next? And will any other NCAAers make it into the first round?

    9. What are the chances of no Russian, Czech or Slovak players taken in the first round? I'd say it reasonable- Jurco, Musil and Jaskin could each conceivably drop out of the top 30. As for the Russians, Kucherov is a top 10 talent but with the combination of size and grit/effort issues plus the fact that he has no N. American timetable makes him unlikely as a first round pick- unless somebody has some real inside track on his intentions. As for Khoklachev and Namestnikov, they both sit around the end of the first round under normal circumstances. However, with any Russians, if you don't project the player to be a top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman, there's a very good chance he'll be plying his trade in the KHL- reducing their draft value.

    10. What are the chances of no USHL, USHS, or USNDTP players being taken in the first round? The first set (USHL) seems quite plausible, the second (USHS) seems probable, but is there any chance of USNTDP players all dropping to round two? Unlikely to be sure, BUT- all the prime suspects have issues. Biggs lacks high end skill. Miller may look more like an up 'n down north-south plugger than a typical first round pick, Murphy has injury issues, Grimaldi has the size thing, and Gibson- well, it's not a great year for goalies.
     
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2011
  2. cheerupmurray

    cheerupmurray Registered User

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    5. Max Friberg, Jeremy Boyce or Rasmus Bengtsson perhaps? All of them have a outside chance to be drafted in the second round. My vote goes to Rasmus Bengtsson since his potential is great. Joachim Nermark could have been the answer, but his poor performance in u-18wc will make him drop. Magnus Hellberg might go surprisingly high if some team like him enough. A real outsider is Västerås William Karlsson, he has developed tremendously this season, maybe some team see even more potential here.
     
  3. MS

    MS 1%er

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    My bet would be Adam Lowry.

    Size, skating ability, hugely projectable frame, scored 40 points in his last 45 games after an awful start to the season. Moreover, teams love bloodline picks and this is the kid of a hugely respected character NHLer, was the WHL Scholastic Player of the Year, and seems to have the pedigree to make the most of his talent when he fills out.

    Might not have massive upside but will be the sort of guy to sneak into the top 50 picks.

    That said, I've seen less WHL hockey this year than any year since maybe about 1996, so ... my opinion comes with a grain of salt.
     
  4. FrankTheTank

    FrankTheTank Registered User

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    C. Gibson absolutely. He might be even first rounder.
     
  5. hototogisu

    hototogisu Poked the bear!!!!!

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    Good questions. It's early so I'll do my best.

    I'm still a big fan of Beaulieu. I think he's a guy teams will be kicking themselves for passing on, if he's on the board for too long.

    That's a tough one. C. Gibson, Perhonen and Hellberg are all candidates, and now McKenzie's throwing out Honzik (which I didn't see coming) and Binnington's playoffs have really boosted his stock. I'm going to say Perhonen.

    Mike Reilly (maybe not much of a sleeper) and Mike McKee are definitely the first to come to mind, I'm a big fan of both. Also I wonder if a GM in the post-Big Bad Bruins Cup world is going to fall in love with Kale Kessy and take a reach.

    Seeing Scott Mayfield ranked so low on McKenzie's list surprised me because I could easily see him being snapped up at the bottom of the first. But no one ever talks about a goalie going in the first round, so maybe John Gibson?

    Rasmus Bengtsson. I think he'll go in the late 2nd.

    If not Edmundson, then Travis Ewanyk.

    Definitely Noebels IMO.

    Like I said before, I think Mayfield has a realistic shot.

    Very good. In my mock I have the 3 Russians, Jurco and Musil all outside the top 30 (but just barely, in some cases)

    Slim to none. Biggs has too many things about him that scouts and GMs love, Murphy is picking up steam in spite of his injuries, and some team is getting the steal of the year if Grimaldi drops all the way to round 2.
     
  6. joe89

    joe89 #5

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    5. Who will be the 8th Swede taken? Almost everyone assumes that Larsson, Landeskog, Brodin, Klefbom, Rask, Zibanejad, and Rackell will be the top 7. Who's next?

    Tough one for sure, but I'll say Bengtsson.
     
  7. Canuck71*

    Canuck71* Guest

    Mayfield plays for Youngstown of the USHL, not in the NCAA.
     
  8. hototogisu

    hototogisu Poked the bear!!!!!

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    You're very right, I knew I wasn't going to get through that without at least one screw-up.
     
  9. projexns

    projexns Matchups Matter

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    I wouldn't be surprised to see Washington draft him. Possibly the only home-run pick available for a team drafting as low as the Caps, and you leverage the "Ovechkin factor" when a talented nation of hockey prospects are out of favour primarily because of the lack of a transfer agreement.
     
  10. AmericanDream

    AmericanDream Adopted Canadian

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    question #7 - my answer is Chase Balisy from Western Michigan. Passed over last years draft, that will not happen this year. has an outside shot as a top 60 pick if some teams think this kid is starting to put it all together.

    question #8 - after Oleksiak I see Matt Nieto going next from the college route. Not sure if he cracks the top 30, but I would be shocked if it was anything after #35. Also Nick Shore and Adam Clendening should be mentioned as well, as either could be top 30-40 picks as well. Should be a solid draft from the NCAA this year.

    question #10 - from the USHS I will now say that Joseph LaBate is my sleeper first round pick for this draft. The 6'4 190lb center is being compared to Nick Bjugstad in his overall game and size. Not exactly apples to apples, but a kid like LaBate will go higher then ranked imo because of his huge upside and ability. I also love the fact that he is going to Wisconsin and not Minnesota, and that may boost his stock even higher. After LaBate, it is Mario Lucia who could be easily swapped with LaBate as a first round option as well. Both players should be gone by #45, but either could be a top 30 pick in this wide open draft.

    as for non USNDP players from the USHL, I only see one player as a legit top 30 pick and that is Scott Mayfield. He might not go top 30, but I think he is one of those kids that many will later say he should have gone top 30. Going to Denver is going to help him as well. Also dont be surprised if someone still takes Seth Ambroz very high. He has dropped from a top 10 spot a year ago, but he is still a player that has upside and size that teams covet.

    not a chance with no USNDP players going in the first round. I easily see 4 USNDP going in the top 30 : Biggs, Murphy, Grimaldi, and Miller; with three more in John Gibson, Robbie Russo, and Reid Boucher all going top 45 as well. It will be a very highend draft for the USNDP again.
     
  11. Jamie Benn

    Jamie Benn NHL Draft Enthusiast

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    I'll give this a go
    I'm guessing by that you mean RNH, Larsson, Landeskog, Cotourier, Huburdeau, Hamilton, Strome, Murphy, Zibinejad

    But anyways, my guess for 10th overall will be either Duncan Siemens or Jamieson Olesksiak. Someone off the board like a Matt Puempel would not surprise me one bit, High risk, high reward type of player.

    Christopher Gibson

    3.
    I do agree that because of the fact that some high school players aren't getting the praise because they aren't playing Junior A, Major Junior, NCAA etc. But some guys like Phillipe Hudon, Joseph Labatte, Mike Rielly could be picked higher then many expected, honestly I have no idea how these guys play, so I'm not sure of their skill level.

    Shane McColgan I could see getting picked up there, this year's Joey Hishon belongs to Sproul or Robbie Russo.

    Either Jeremy Boyce Rotevall or Rasmus Bengtsson.

    A couple guys that could shoot up in the rankings, Joel Edmundson, Tyler Wotherspoon, Adam Lowry, one guy I am keen on is Marcel Noebels.

    I want to say Noebels, but my gut feeling is saying Hellberg.

    Adam Clendening followed up shortly by Matthew Nieto.

    Jurco is the only guy I can see going first round.

    Slim, I think Gibson, Biggs, Grimaldi and Miller have a great chance of getting taken in the first round, with Gibson not likely, unless a team pulls a Jack Campbell and takes him early, either that or he's not taken at all in the first round. For high schools, Mario Lucia imo is a high second rounder, and for the USHL, Ambroz, Mayfeild have a chance to crack the first round, but not as likely.
     
  12. Hiishawk

    Hiishawk Registered User

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    MS- Did you manage to see Destry Straight (Coquitlam) this year? I only caught him once- where he was dancing with the puck and spriniging his teammates all night, top 60 stuff- but I've heard from others that his flash vs. substance ratio is held in some doubt.

    I wonder where you weigh in...
     
  13. MS

    MS 1%er

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    No, saw almost zero BCHL action this year. Have heard good things about his vision and playmaking ability and he's obviously headed to a good school ... but that's about all I know.
     
  14. pokerface1

    pokerface1 Registered User

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    What is your take on Lucia, skill-wise? and also how do u think his future plans will/might impact his development?
     
  15. Jayevs

    Jayevs Formerly avsman

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    3. McColgan
    6. McColgan
    9. McColgan
     
  16. The Saw Is the Law

    The Saw Is the Law Registered User

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    Minnesota is picking 10th? Well they like Finns but... I dunno... Armia or Beaulieu

    2nd goalie will be J. Gibson. Christopher goes before John.

    I took a lottery ball and it shows Konstantin Komarek

    Homer pick Miikka Salomäki

    Bengtsson

    Me likes lottery; Wotherspoon

    Jokipakka...

    Somebody will be in TOP30.
     
  17. hawksfan50

    hawksfan50 Registered User

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    I think both Gibsons are the first 2 goalies taken --both in round two...HELLBERG probably goes in the first ten picks of round 3 --IF he is the 3rd goalie taken then he'llprobably go #61,#62 or #63 --if he is the 4th goalie taken he will last to pick 69 (Blackhawks)...

    NOW Bob McKenzie via his poll of 10 NHL team scouts has PERHONEN HONZIK and BINNINGTON going at #51 #55 and #58 respectively ---that means HELLBERG is only going to be the 6th goalie taken -but with NHL teams piling up the other 5 all off the board earlier than some teams thought--there willbe a scramble by other teams to get in on HELLBERG ASAP--so he willthen go at #61,62 or 63 for sure with some team trading up to get him ,,


    I originally targeted Hellberg at #43 (CHI"s 2nd of their 2 2ndrounders) BUT STAN BOWMAN gave an opinion about a relatively weak and not deep goalie crop --hinting that perhaps none would go in round one,few in round two --and that from this hint that he probably would not risk on any goalie in the first 2 rounds...IF other GM's agree with that view then indeed maybe only the 2 GIBSON's are off the board by pick 60 ...THEN in round three other goalies start getting picked but at a more spread out pace ..IN that case maybe Hellberg does get picked as the 4th goalie taken and willlast to pick 69..
     
  18. AmericanDream

    AmericanDream Adopted Canadian

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    Lucia is a budding power forward type player. The kid has the size already to be a strong player in the NHL, but he also has some weaknesses as well. I think his skating is a bit behind, but that is common for young big forwards. I dont think he tops out as a high goal scorer, so you have to wonder how high of an offensive ceiling he will have. I see Lucia as an almost certain NHL player, probably toping out as a 2nd-3rd liner imo.

    As for LaBate, I think he could be the gem of the first round. He has plenty of flaws as well, but his size, skills, and skating for a 6'4 kid are all very much positives. I think he is going to be a very solid scorer and all around player. He is a big home run swing who could flop completely, but if he does put it all together he is a 1st-2nd line player imo.


    With Lucia still undecided with college and apparently the BCHL (which is pointless imo), I hope he takes his time and decides on the school that will allow him to be the player he can be without a lot of pressure from the program or its coach who happens to be your father.

    I personally hope Lucia decides to go to Notre Dame as it would be a wiser career move for him imo. The Minnesota program is under some adversity, and though they keep getting top players (Bjugstad, Ambroz, Budish, etc) they still struggle. I just think the kid would be able to play better without all the pressure that would come along with him going to Minnesota.

    As for LaBate going to Wisconsin, I absolutely love it. I think Mike Eaves is seriously in the top 2-3 coaches in the country, and he actually developes players to their utmost potential. Next to going to North Dakota, I think Wisconsin is starting to produce some legit talents. That is why I have high hopes for LaBate, because he is going to a program that is showing continual results with positive progressions of its players to the pro ranks.

    I know a bit off topic, but I hope I answered your question.
     
  19. pokerface1

    pokerface1 Registered User

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    you certainly answered my question, thanks for such a detailed response about LaBate and Lucia.....did not realize that Lucia was considering the BCHL for next year
     
  20. doublechili

    doublechili Registered User

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    Question #1: Trick question - one of the "top 9" will drop to #10.

    Actually kind of kidding there, so to answer the question asked I'll say Siemens based partly on his late birthday and partly on the fact that he's big and hits and fights and has a bit of skill - those kinds of d-men always seem to move up the charts on draft day.
     

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