GDT: 10/18/2019 Game 8: Detroit Red Wings @ Edmonton Oilers (9pm EST)

ArGarBarGar

What do we want!? Unfair!
Sep 8, 2008
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How can you justify Mantha making more than Larkin? You can't. Because he won't.
Larkin isn't Lidstrom. Also Larkin, if he continues to improve, is going to be worth way more than what he is being paid.

And if Mantha plays at least close to how he has been playing this season, you simply aren't getting Mantha for less than Larkin is being paid now. There is no conceivable way that will happen. So either pay him more than Larkin, or let him (and everyone else who actually deserves to get paid for being really good at hockey) walk. I would rather try to keep the good players we do have instead of throw them aside because they may get paid more than our potential captain.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

Opinions are share are my own personal opinions.
Jul 6, 2012
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Connor McDavid makes around twice as much as Wayne Gretzky made. How can you justify anyone making more than the greatest hockey player of all time?

That's needlessly hyperbolic the other way. I get what you're saying and support it for more than what TG2V is saying, but things like that aren't helpful.
Mantha and Larkin's contracts are simply not comparable. Larkin's buys out 1 year of UFA, I believe? Mantha's only covers 1 year of RFA. Larkin signed his as his second contract at 22? Mantha's soon to be contract is his 3rd that he's signing at between 25 and 26. Larkin is a C and his contract took him right to UFA and he's gonna cash in like nobody's business in a couple years.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

Opinions are share are my own personal opinions.
Jul 6, 2012
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Larkin isn't Lidstrom. Also Larkin, if he continues to improve, is going to be worth way more than what he is being paid.

And if Mantha plays at least close to how he has been playing this season, you simply aren't getting Mantha for less than Larkin is being paid now. There is no conceivable way that will happen. So either pay him more than Larkin, or let him (and everyone else who actually deserves to get paid for being really good at hockey) walk. I would rather try to keep the good players we do have instead of throw them aside because they may get paid more than our potential captain.

I mean, more so... Lidstrom's 7.5m back in the mid 2000s was 17.27% of the cap when signed in 2005-2006 and 14.81% of the cap when signed in 2008-2009.
Nicklas Lidström - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

So... realistically, that would be saying that nobody could make more than 13.8M for the 17.27% and 11.85M for the 14.81%.

That's a pretty ****ing far cry from nobody can make more than 6.1M

E: And hell, if Mantha makes less than 7.67% of the cap, his contract is actually for less pro rata than Larkin's. So Mantha could pretty easily make less % of the cap than Larkin did at signing his contract but make more in actual dollars.
 

Steve Yzerlland

Registered User
Jul 18, 2018
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I would struggle to do so right now, as Mantha hasn't passed 50 points yet. But you can justify paying him more by the following methods

a) Mantha has one year to RFA. For all intents and purposes, this is a UFA contract. His 3.3M contract is the comparable to Larkin's 6.1M. You're conflating two separate things in your dogmatic view that "nobody can make more than him".
b) Mantha if he puts up a 70-80 pt season will undoubtedly get a ~7-8M offer sheet if Yzerman makes it clear that he's not getting more than 6.1
c) Mantha signs for 7 or 8 years while Larkin signed for 5. So when Mantha is making 6-7M in years 5-8, Larkin is then going to be making 9-11.

But sure, let's hold to some stupid ass arbitrary rule that will basically price us out of acquiring any player of any worth for the next 3-4 years.
Mantha has never broken the 50 point barrier and you are saying he could get 6M+ per because he could eventually become a 70-80 player? I like Mantha but he is a top 9 guy on a Stanley cup contender.
 

Hen Kolland

Registered User
Feb 22, 2018
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Mantha has never broken the 50 point barrier and you are saying he could get 6M+ per because he could eventually become a 70-80 player? I like Mantha but he is a top 9 guy on a Stanley cup contender.

Oh man...we have seen this debate before. Mantha is a first line forward. Period. End of discussion
 
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Retire91

Stevey Y you our Guy
May 31, 2010
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This team has been a longtime victim of players getting paid for the role they are being played in becasue the team is so devoid of talent that players are playing minutes they wouldn't see on legit teams. Just because Mantha is our number 2 or number 1 offensive threat it doesn't mean he should automatically be paid the same amount as every other team's number 1 or number 2 offensive threat. If we let these contracts get out of hand its going to be hard to sign depth when we eventually need it. I don't want to see Mantha paid like a 70-80 point guy until he puts up some 70-80 point seasons.
 

MBH

Players Play
Jul 20, 2019
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Can people stop acting like it's 2007 and Lidstrom's salary sets the tone for all Red Wings salary requests...
If Mantha finishes with a bomb season, he's gonna get more than Larkin. Why? Because he's buying up UFA years. Plain and simple.
 
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deca guard

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Jun 22, 2019
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What "evidence" proves Mantha would be better than a top 9 guy on any contending team?
your not understanding that a gm has to gamble in this matter because if we dont offer a big contract now he might sign a bridge with thee intention of going ufa in 2 years . and a 6'4'' rugged power forward withgood wheels / ruggedness / smarts / hands / shot is the last guy you want to lose . obviously the big contracts are gambles , but this is thee exact type player you gamble on . your holland type logic offers him 3 years at 6 on a prove it contract and in 3 years he says get lost im outta here to highest bidder !
 

ArGarBarGar

What do we want!? Unfair!
Sep 8, 2008
44,017
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Mantha has never broken the 50 point barrier and you are saying he could get 6M+ per because he could eventually become a 70-80 player? I like Mantha but he is a top 9 guy on a Stanley cup contender.
You think that Mantha will not get paid 6M+ unless he breaks 70 points this season?

What do you think Mantha is worth now, and what do you think he could be worth if he scores 30+30 this year?
 

Winger98

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Last year JT Miller had the 9th highest IT among forwards on Tampa Bay. He put up 13 goals and 47 points. The three years prior to that he averaged roughly 22.5 goals and 53 points a season.

The forward with the 9th highest IT on last season's Cup Champion Blues was Oskar Sundquist. He had a career high 14 goals and 31 points last year.

Yeah, Mantha would pretty easily slot into the top9 of contending teams.
 

Winger98

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You think that Mantha will not get paid 6M+ unless he breaks 70 points this season?

What do you think Mantha is worth now, and what do you think he could be worth if he scores 30+30 this year?

As a partial addendum to my above post, JT Miller actually has similar production to Mantha so far, and signed a deal averaged $5.25m for five years. Mantha averages fewer points but more goals. A contract with a similar cap% under a $83.5m cap would be around $5.5m a season. However, as you point out, if Mantha puts up a 30+30 year or something, that cost is going to go up. Especially since Mantha has intangibles like size and physical play that GM's love.
 

Hen Kolland

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Feb 22, 2018
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What "evidence" proves Mantha would be better than a top 9 guy on any contending team?

You are literally asking “what makes Mantha more than a 4th liner on a contending team?” Do you understand how ludicrous that is?

Slow day at work, so here are statistics that tell me he’s a first liner. Not an elite one, but statistically a first liner. I went to Hockey-Reference and pulled 2018-19 season statistics into excel for the top 200 scorers. I filtered out all Centers and Defensemen and kept all wingers, left and right.

Mantha is the 45th ranked winger and 28th ranked right winger based on his gross point production last year.

He is 34th ranked winger and 19th ranked right winger based on his gross goal scoring last year.

He is the 36th ranked winger and 19th ranked right winger based on points per game played last year.

He is the 25th ranked winger and 13th ranked right winger in goals per game played last year.

He is the 41st ranked winger and 22nd ranked right winger in points per 60 minutes last year.

He is the 26th ranked winger and 13th ranked right winger in goals per 60 minutes last year.

Basically what the statistics tell me is that he’s a top 20 right winger in hockey. And that doesn’t even begin to factor in the fact that he missed a chunk of the season to injury as he was heating up. The fact that he’s been statistically one of the best hockey players in the league since March of last year.
 

deca guard

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Jun 22, 2019
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You are literally asking “what makes Mantha more than a 4th liner on a contending team?” Do you understand how ludicrous that is?

Slow day at work, so here are statistics that tell me he’s a first liner. Not an elite one, but statistically a first liner. I went to Hockey-Reference and pulled 2018-19 season statistics into excel for the top 200 scorers. I filtered out all Centers and Defensemen and kept all wingers, left and right.

Mantha is the 45th ranked winger and 28th ranked right winger based on his gross point production last year.

He is 34th ranked winger and 19th ranked right winger based on his gross goal scoring last year.

He is the 36th ranked winger and 19th ranked right winger based on points per game played last year.

He is the 25th ranked winger and 13th ranked right winger in goals per game played last year.

He is the 41st ranked winger and 22nd ranked right winger in points per 60 minutes last year.

He is the 26th ranked winger and 13th ranked right winger in goals per 60 minutes last year.

Basically what the statistics tell me is that he’s a top 20 right winger in hockey. And that doesn’t even begin to factor in the fact that he missed a chunk of the season to injury as he was heating up. The fact that he’s been statistically one of the best hockey players in the league since March of last year.
and the largest aspect that needs be considered if your a gm looking at a contract offer is the junk dmen hes played with . aint nobody there hauling the mail or making excellent passes setting him up with good shot opportunitys = has a huge negative affect upon his point totals
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

Opinions are share are my own personal opinions.
Jul 6, 2012
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What "evidence" proves Mantha would be better than a top 9 guy on any contending team?

The fact that on a bottom feeder, as you say, he's gotten 24 and 25 goals and not been a huge negative in doing so.
The fact that when he played in the international tournament last year when he wasn't burdened by being on a weak roster, he was still one of the more noticeable players on the roster.
The fact that on a rate basis if you dropped Mantha who plays with much lesser players onto the Tampa Bay Lightning (and kept his statline) that he'd be the #4 point getter on their roster and that he did it in either equivalent ice time or less? Mantha got 48 points in 1194 minutes. Tyler Johnson had 47 in 1297. JT Miller 47 in 1100. Yanni Gorde 48 in 1267.

Or are none of those three top 9 forwards on a contending team either?

As a partial addendum to my above post, JT Miller actually has similar production to Mantha so far, and signed a deal averaged $5.25m for five years. Mantha averages fewer points but more goals. A contract with a similar cap% under a $83.5m cap would be around $5.5m a season. However, as you point out, if Mantha puts up a 30+30 year or something, that cost is going to go up. Especially since Mantha has intangibles like size and physical play that GM's love.

JT Miller signed that deal in Tampa, though, right? It's not entirely relevant that he signed for 5x5.25 compared to Mantha because on that roster, you had Nikita Kucherov sign his second deal for some paltry amount. You had Steven Stamkos sign for 8.5, when he's routinely going off for 85-90+ points when he's not got a broken leg. Tampa now is what Detroit was in the 90s. Guys will take a good deal less to stick with a great roster. The bigger thing is that you had Nikita Kucherov who had pretty much already broken out huge by 15-16 sign a 3 year contract with a 4.75 AAV. That type of deal plus Stamkos going 8.5x8 are going to deflate any contract demand from any other player on the roster. Your two best basically take 2-4M less than they're probably worth, you're gonna get told to pound sand if you dig in to get an overpayment. Big difference here. You've got Larkin who's on a reasonable deal, but that's it. And that reasonable deal was one that only covers one UFA year for Larkin.
 

Hen Kolland

Registered User
Feb 22, 2018
9,470
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The fact that on a bottom feeder, as you say, he's gotten 24 and 25 goals and not been a huge negative in doing so.
The fact that when he played in the international tournament last year when he wasn't burdened by being on a weak roster, he was still one of the more noticeable players on the roster.
The fact that on a rate basis if you dropped Mantha who plays with much lesser players onto the Tampa Bay Lightning (and kept his statline) that he'd be the #4 point getter on their roster and that he did it in either equivalent ice time or less? Mantha got 48 points in 1194 minutes. Tyler Johnson had 47 in 1297. JT Miller 47 in 1100. Yanni Gorde 48 in 1267.

Or are none of those three top 9 forwards on a contending team either?



JT Miller signed that deal in Tampa, though, right? It's not entirely relevant that he signed for 5x5.25 compared to Mantha because on that roster, you had Nikita Kucherov sign his second deal for some paltry amount. You had Steven Stamkos sign for 8.5, when he's routinely going off for 85-90+ points when he's not got a broken leg. Tampa now is what Detroit was in the 90s. Guys will take a good deal less to stick with a great roster. The bigger thing is that you had Nikita Kucherov who had pretty much already broken out huge by 15-16 sign a 3 year contract with a 4.75 AAV. That type of deal plus Stamkos going 8.5x8 are going to deflate any contract demand from any other player on the roster. Your two best basically take 2-4M less than they're probably worth, you're gonna get told to pound sand if you dig in to get an overpayment. Big difference here. You've got Larkin who's on a reasonable deal, but that's it. And that reasonable deal was one that only covers one UFA year for Larkin.

And you have to imagine that state income tax factors in to this as well. It won't be super significant, but it is definitely a factor.
 

Steve Yzerlland

Registered User
Jul 18, 2018
7,885
3,784
You think that Mantha will not get paid 6M+ unless he breaks 70 points this season?

What do you think Mantha is worth now, and what do you think he could be worth if he scores 30+30 this year?
I think he scores the same points as last year and will get 5M per max. Yzerman isn't paying a premium for his own players like Holland did. And Mantha is far from scoring 70 points so that part is not even worth discussing
 

Steve Yzerlland

Registered User
Jul 18, 2018
7,885
3,784
You are literally asking “what makes Mantha more than a 4th liner on a contending team?” Do you understand how ludicrous that is?

Slow day at work, so here are statistics that tell me he’s a first liner. Not an elite one, but statistically a first liner. I went to Hockey-Reference and pulled 2018-19 season statistics into excel for the top 200 scorers. I filtered out all Centers and Defensemen and kept all wingers, left and right.

Mantha is the 45th ranked winger and 28th ranked right winger based on his gross point production last year.

He is 34th ranked winger and 19th ranked right winger based on his gross goal scoring last year.

He is the 36th ranked winger and 19th ranked right winger based on points per game played last year.

He is the 25th ranked winger and 13th ranked right winger in goals per game played last year.

He is the 41st ranked winger and 22nd ranked right winger in points per 60 minutes last year.

He is the 26th ranked winger and 13th ranked right winger in goals per 60 minutes last year.

Basically what the statistics tell me is that he’s a top 20 right winger in hockey. And that doesn’t even begin to factor in the fact that he missed a chunk of the season to injury as he was heating up. The fact that he’s been statistically one of the best hockey players in the league since March of last year.
Top 9 is not a "4th liner" wtf??? And two most of his March points were when we were eliminated from playoff contention thus less pressure....
 

Steve Yzerlland

Registered User
Jul 18, 2018
7,885
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your not understanding that a gm has to gamble in this matter because if we dont offer a big contract now he might sign a bridge with thee intention of going ufa in 2 years . and a 6'4'' rugged power forward withgood wheels / ruggedness / smarts / hands / shot is the last guy you want to lose . obviously the big contracts are gambles , but this is thee exact type player you gamble on . your holland type logic offers him 3 years at 6 on a prove it contract and in 3 years he says get lost im outta here to highest bidder !
Yzerman doesn't "have to gamble" on Mantha. That's why he continues to preach PATIENCE because he knows the rebuild will be long and not to put a lot of big money into a relatively unproven player on any real sample size like Mantha.
 

Hen Kolland

Registered User
Feb 22, 2018
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Top 9 is not a "4th liner" wtf??? And two most of his March points were when we were eliminated from playoff contention thus less pressure....

"Better than a top 9 player on another team." That means you are saying Mantha is NOT better than anyone in their top 9. Meaning the only place he could fit on the team is outside of the top 9...aka the fourth line. Your words, not mine.

You ignored every ounce of context I provided in that post I made just to come back with some contentious response. Why don't you address the stats? Is it because you have no leg to stand on?
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
22,756
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Cleveland
JT Miller signed that deal in Tampa, though, right? It's not entirely relevant that he signed for 5x5.25 compared to Mantha because on that roster, you had Nikita Kucherov sign his second deal for some paltry amount. You had Steven Stamkos sign for 8.5, when he's routinely going off for 85-90+ points when he's not got a broken leg. Tampa now is what Detroit was in the 90s. Guys will take a good deal less to stick with a great roster. The bigger thing is that you had Nikita Kucherov who had pretty much already broken out huge by 15-16 sign a 3 year contract with a 4.75 AAV. That type of deal plus Stamkos going 8.5x8 are going to deflate any contract demand from any other player on the roster. Your two best basically take 2-4M less than they're probably worth, you're gonna get told to pound sand if you dig in to get an overpayment. Big difference here. You've got Larkin who's on a reasonable deal, but that's it. And that reasonable deal was one that only covers one UFA year for Larkin.

Miller's cap hit % isn't crazy low, though, at 6.6% at the time of his signing. It doesn't look way off these comps I pulled up on capfriendly. Even if I bump Mantha up to 7.5% of a $83.5m cap, that's only ~$6.26m per season, and that's a lower percentage than Larkin's contract. I once advocated for a higher cap hit for Mantha, but the more I look at this...I'm not sure how justified it will be to go over that cap hit percentage of 7.5%

If Mantha goes off and has a crazy year, yeah, that could push the number up. but it could also push towards a much shorter deal to see if a big year this year isn't an anomaly.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

Opinions are share are my own personal opinions.
Jul 6, 2012
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Miller's cap hit % isn't crazy low, though, at 6.6% at the time of his signing. It doesn't look way off these comps I pulled up on capfriendly. Even if I bump Mantha up to 7.5% of a $83.5m cap, that's only ~$6.26m per season, and that's a lower percentage than Larkin's contract. I once advocated for a higher cap hit for Mantha, but the more I look at this...I'm not sure how justified it will be to go over that cap hit percentage of 7.5%

If Mantha goes off and has a crazy year, yeah, that could push the number up. but it could also push towards a much shorter deal to see if a big year this year isn't an anomaly.

I see what you're saying. I think when I'm saying he could get in the 6s, I'm talking 8 years. That Mantha could get 8x6.5 and it wouldn't be unreasonable. The way I could see it, if you wanted to go shorter, 4-5 years, the number would be closer to 5. (5-5.5M) If you want to eat more UFA years, salary has to go up per year too. 8x6.5 gives him 52.5M total. If you got him on the JT Miller deal 5x5.25, he'd have to be looking for 8.5M in those next three years to get there. If I can lock him in at 6.5, I'm getting a discount on those last couple years when we should finally be really really good.

But all of this is secondary to the fact that Larkin's contract should not be a "barrier" upon which Mantha cannot pass. That was the argument we were having. I would think that Mantha's team could argue strongly that he's trending up in a way that he could get very expensive, very quickly if the Wings don't lock him in at a little bit of an overpayment now. Also, I think Mantha is one of those guys who is ripe for a deal like this. Because he could still very well explode and become a 75-80 point winger or he could stick as being the 25g, 25a winger he's been and absolutely be worth 5.5-6M If you could get him to sign 8x6.5, I don't see much downside and I see a lot of potential upside in that you'd get a bargain not just market value.
 
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