Post-Game Talk: #10 - 10/29/19 | lightning @ RANGERS

3 Stars of the Game


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Shesterkybomb

Registered User
Dec 30, 2016
15,589
16,377
Ryan strome has played 73 games with us a lot of that on the 3rd line and has 58 points, not sure where the hate comes from, he isnt as bad as everyone makes him out to be. People were clamoring to give Hayes a 7 year 42-50 mill deal with those numbers.
 

egelband

Registered User
Sep 6, 2008
15,852
14,386
The real truth about the analytics is it's just more bull**** for fans to waste too much time on.
My only issue with stats in general, advanced or other, is that they’re backward looking. Which can be predictive when referring to a player with a substantial history to analyze. Like, a five or six year vet. But stats aren’t terribly substantial when a player is developing. Predicting how a player will develop is more of an art, in my opinion. I’m sure many of you agree. My point is the sample size issue.
 
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ReggieDunlop68

hey hanrahan!
Oct 4, 2008
14,441
4,434
It’s a rebuild.
Whipping boy to me means disproportionate or undeserved critisisms i.e. Roszival.

Staal gets critiqued because his performance to contract ratio is bottom five in the league

I think whipping boy has more to do with the undeserving admiration or evisceration of certain players over the years.


And for Ranger fans, if your name isn’t Brian Leetch, yet you are a more defensive minded defensemen, your days are numbered for evisceration by many regardless of actual play.

I’m talking all the way back to Howell.


It’s the anti-thesis of the “great flashes that are witnessed” in fairly awful one way forwards. If they have an exotic foreign name, the leash is even longer.
 

ReggieDunlop68

hey hanrahan!
Oct 4, 2008
14,441
4,434
It’s a rebuild.
My only issue with stats in general, advanced or other, is that they’re backward looking. Which can be predictive when referring to a player with a substantial history to analyze. Like, a five or six year vet. But stats aren’t terribly substantial when a player is developing. Predicting how a player will develop is more of an art, in my opinion. I’m sure many of you agree. My point is the sample size issue.

My issue with the stats is the presentation.

Some of those who post them , @aufheben , show them in a way that adds to my appreciation of the game. He tends to show heat maps and other material that are more macro in nature and I find they follow the flow and outcome of the game very well.

Others, seem to use it to sort of bully other posters or just to harp on things “sucking”. Most of that data is focused on the micro of the game, and tends to be much less relevant and far more self -serving
 
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ohbaby

Registered User
Apr 4, 2007
3,206
3,203
I guess I would say if it's not a "good" scoring chance then I personally would not consider it a scoring chance. To me HDCF is more of actual scoring chances and SCF is basically just shots excluding dmen shooting from far out.
This all came up with someone saying Buffalo had 23 scoring chances. When I think of scoring chances, I think of quality scoring chances. The kind that the coaches and Vallie talk about. Those are generally shots within the dots. Those what the coaches and analysts refer to as good opportunities. So I have no idea what other reference people are using to describe scoring chances,... cause Buffalo did not have 23 quality scoring chances.
 

Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
Jan 17, 2014
22,580
12,822
This all came up with someone saying Buffalo had 23 scoring chances. When I think of scoring chances, I think of quality scoring chances. The kind that the coaches and Vallie talk about. Those are generally shots within the dots. Those what the coaches and analysts refer to as good opportunities. So I have no idea what other reference people are using to describe scoring chances,... cause Buffalo did not have 23 quality scoring chances.
If you want to dive deeper into that game, the high-danger shot attempts at 5v5 were 8-5 in favor of the Rangers. This is probably the stat you're trying to describe and is labeled as HDCF (high-danger corsi for) on naturalstattrick.com

There is another metric called xGF (expected goals for) which factors in the probability for each shot attempt to result in a goal. These probabilities are determined based on data from previous goals scored over the last decade. The current data is limited, but still very useful, because it's based on shot type and location and doesn't factor in pre-puck movement and manual puck tracking like Valliquette's analysis. However, those types of models will eventually be built and become public once the NHL starts to collect and release tracking data.

If you have questions about it, just ask rather than writing it all off because you don't understand it. It's still a rapidly evolving field and even the people heavily invested in analytics are learning more about it every day. We all understand that it's a tool that still cannot fully encompass everything that goes on in the game, but it still provides plenty of insight.
 
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ReggieDunlop68

hey hanrahan!
Oct 4, 2008
14,441
4,434
It’s a rebuild.
If you want to dive deeper into that game, the high-danger shot attempts at 5v5 were 8-5 in favor of the Rangers. This is probably the stat you're trying to describe and is labeled as HDCF (high-danger corsi for) on naturalstattrick.com

There is another metric called xGF (expected goals for) which factors in the probability for each shot attempt to result in a goal. These probabilities are determined based on data from previous goals scored over the last decade. The current data is limited, but still very useful, because it's based on shot type and location and doesn't factor in pre-puck movement and manual puck tracking like Valliquette's analysis. However, those types of models will eventually be built and become public once the NHL starts to collect and release tracking data.

If you have questions about it, just ask rather than writing it all off because you don't understand it. It's still a rapidly evolving field and even the people heavily invested in analytics are learning more about it every day. We all understand that it's a tool that still cannot fully encompass everything that goes on in the thing, but it still provides plenty of insight.

Does the data provide the discrepancy [high danger vs. standard attempt] by period? That would be pretty cool to see changes in momentum.

Edit: OOO it does

Edit: @ohbaby was correct
 
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Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
Jan 17, 2014
22,580
12,822
Does the data provide the discrepancy [high danger vs. standard attempt] by period? That would be pretty cool to see changes in momentum.
Yep, they break it down period-by-period for every game. For example, he's the game log from the Tampa game:

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers, 2019-10-29

It's obviously lacking the nuance of certain things like Strome's turnover leading to that brutal shift before the 1st TB goal. There's also game flow charts to see it plotted out against time. There's other charts out there too that show "shot pressure" over the flow of a game, but they're normally behind a paywall. Here's an example of what I mean from the TB-NJ game yesterday:

 
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Ori

#Connor Bedard 2023 1st, Chicago Blackhawks
Nov 7, 2014
11,578
2,173
Norway
We can`t lose em all, but Buffalo & Tampa Clearwater beach is a good performance and quite happy, so I don`t mind going on a new losing streak here. :)
 

egelband

Registered User
Sep 6, 2008
15,852
14,386
Yeh i don’t get the Strome hate - the first few games he was a little slow and took some sloppy penalties but he is pretty reliable production wise for what he is paid.

Totally get the Staal hate tho.
I saw Strome outrace a guy to the puck easily in the last game. Toasted him. I was surprised to see number 16. He’s maybe not a hopeless skater as we’ve been led to believe.
 

Blue Blooded

Most people rejected his message
Oct 25, 2010
4,524
2,435
Stockholm
Ryan strome has played 73 games with us a lot of that on the 3rd line and has 58 points, not sure where the hate comes from, he isnt as bad as everyone makes him out to be. People were clamoring to give Hayes a 7 year 42-50 mill deal with those numbers.

He has 43 points in 73 games as a Ranger, 33 in 63 last year and 10 in 10 this year. That is a significant difference to 58.

Furthermore, as an advocate of re-signing Hayes to a UFA contract within those parameters (before the Trouba trade made him and Panarin mutually exclusive) I will say that it wasn't down to the points total and if he had the same impacts as Strome outside of his superior point production I would've wanted to stay well clear of him.
 

egelband

Registered User
Sep 6, 2008
15,852
14,386
You think Tampa routinely came out flat last season? ******Edit: Just realized you meant against Columbus. I didn't see those games, but I bet Columbus and St.L to win the Cup, so I liked it.

Just looked. Tampa scored first 3 goals in Game 1. That's not coming out flat.

AV isn't a better or worse coach then he was 5 seasons ago. At least there is no way to quantify a coach's impact that I know of.

Once in a while you get a truly horrible coach like Trottier. Those are easy to identify, but they are rare.

In the end it's always about the quality of personnel, health, and luck in the playoffs. Coach is by far the least important part of the equation. If this wasn't so coaches wouldn't be on an endless merry-go-round from team to team.

The one thing a coach can do is instill a defensive conscience and get the players to obey. Trotz is good at that.
Wish you’d post more. This is an excellent point.
 

GAGLine

Registered User
Sep 17, 2007
23,120
18,667
Simply because he was not drafted here, and plays on a line above a player that was.

I think it's more because his points last year were dependent on a higher than average shooting percentage, so a lot of people were expecting him to revert to norm. The problem with that line of thinking is that it ignores all the other variables in the equation, like shot volume, role, linemates, system.

Last year in 63 games with the Rangers, Strome had 18 goals on 80 shots, a 22.5 shooting percentage.

In 10 games this year, Strome has 3 goals on 13 shots, a 23.1 shooting percentage. It's a smaller sample size, but thus far he's getting roughly the same number of shots per game and scoring at the same rate.

Of note is that he has 7 assists in 10 games, where last year he had 15 in 63 games. Is that the result of more top 6 minutes? Is it the result of more time spent at center or with better linemates? Maybe he's just an all around more confident player and it's showing in his game.

I'd like to see him shoot more--he had 179 shots in 80 games with the Islanders in his 2nd season--but as long as he's getting assists, it's fine. Maybe he has found his groove and he's right where he needs to be.
 

Leetch3

Registered User
Jul 14, 2009
12,932
10,648
ryan strome has been excellent imo, you couldn't ask for more...and it has NOTHING to do with his points or high shooting percentage. You need to have veterans. strome has been bounced around the line, center, wing, all 4 lines and he never sulks he just goes out there and does his job.
he's been a good veteran to help any kid he's played with...seems like a good guy in the locker room that everyone on the team likes. as a former high 1st round pick he knows what all the kids are going thru to help them off the ice, etc.

is he a great player? no but we are a rebuilding team and he's been a good veteran to help during the transition process...

and I'll be honest, much like jesper fast, I'm not sure we can keep him cause his next salary might price him out for his role given our extreme cap crunch for next year, but if the cap #s can work I would absolutely love to keep strome & fast for the next few years as veteran depth guys
 

Oscar Lindberg

Registered User
Dec 14, 2015
15,597
14,381
CA
Strome is fine for what he is

The question is whether or not the front office likes him so much that they extend him. He strikes me as one of these guys the team loves. Fast is in the same boat, although he's probably more likely to be extended of the two

He could be a useful piece next year, but I would trade him if the offers are good.
 

will1066

Fonz Drury
Oct 12, 2008
43,139
58,714
Simply because he was not drafted here, and plays on a line above a player that was.
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