Discussion in 'Fugu's Business of Hockey Forum' started by Cropduster, Apr 4, 2005.
I think the number is a bit higher than that
Id agree with that guess
Please change the title of this thread to "some dude thinks 1/3 of players will cross". This is from Kevin Dupont, the same guy who is getting shot down on another thread about the NHLPA's supposed proposal. I could write an article saying I think 98% of players will cross, it's just as un-legitimate and inaccurate.
to be fair Dupont clearly states that it is just pure speculation.
Even though its speculation, I'd pretty much agree with that number. I believe that the 4th liners along with marginal 3rd liners will cross, as well as some 5th most of the 6th and for teams that carry 7 defenseman will cross, as well as marginal goalies. That's apprx 1/3 of the league.
Regardless, I personally, am not going to spend $80 or more to watch the lower teir NHL players, so until the REAL players are playing again I will not go to another NHL game. I am perfectly happy for now spending $8-$15 on ECHL or AHL games.
Actually, if you read the article, Dupont thinks a third would have crossed this spring. By the time a new season opens in the fall, he think it will be up to half. All of which is merely speculation as stated repeatedly by the author.
There are so many ifs ands or buts behind that guesstimate. We definitely can all do the same, but the number does come from some bit of ration. If they were in the legal position to, it is not unreasonable to guess that on average the 4th/healthy scratches plus a D from each team would cross. There are 3 healthy scratch players per team which if usually are the AHL callup guys. Anyway, it is then reasonable to think that about 5 guys per 2003-04 pro-roster would cross. 150 guys as a starting point is a decent guess using Dupont's logic.
However there is a HUGE flaw in his thinking. "Small" players, as in 4th liners or the lower paid guys does not equal, players most likely to cross. Why can't a 4th liner making $450,000 a year be a diehard union thumper? There are way too many variables. The player's personal assessment of the circumstance matters most. Does the player judge it to be in his best interest to cross? That is all that matters, regardless of how much he gets paid or whether he is a small, medium or large.
Yes more small players may think that it is better to cross then big players do, but that is not to say that Mike Modano doesn't see his poor dog starving and decides he has to play to keep it alive.
Mike Modano will be one of the first to cross, irregardless of the status of his dog.
Nice post. Just like most of your others.
I think more players than PA supporters think will cross. Just as an example (obviously not representitive of the whole PA), I know 2 NHLPA members fairly well and speak with them both on a weekly basis. One is a #5-7 defenseman, 26yrs old and says he will cross if it comes down to it. The other is a star, 1st liner and point-per-game player, 24 yrs old that also said he WILL be in camp on day 1 if the NHL comes to accepting replacement players. I garauntee they aren't the only ones. And he won't be the only 'star' player either that is sick of this and will be in an NHL team camp on day 1.
he's just as bad as brooks and strach you guys whine about so much - we'll see what happens when it happens - i'm sure there will be some guys crossing - happy now
name the players eh? i know some too
Guessing? Dany Heatley and Lance Ward.
Peter Sidorkiewicz would cross for sure.
If 1/3 of the players cross(approx) 250...then shortly after that...about 350-400 would be sure to follow...hopefully McCabe and Pronger stay true to their word and stay home...
Sidorkiewicz would then be elected to the NHL replacement allstar game and earn his second NHL allstar appearance of all time. It would be breathtaking.
Peter Sidorkiewicz, would then have his name legally changed to Golden Palace. com, as it would be much easier to spell.
I'm sure you do. Why don't you go and ask them their feelings.
As per the 2 guys I know, out of respect for their privacy, I obviously don't want to name names.
i know - just goating you - carry on
It's clear who's wearing the horns.
75% here.....no way people making the salaries these guys take home p+ss away two years!
Are you Eklund?
You know Brad Richards?
About a pt per game and 24 y/o
Would anyone really be shocked if the North American players who spent last year in Russia/Europe wanted to resume their NHL careers?
to everyone predicting how many players will cross, what percentage, etc...
can you give me some winning lottery numbers cuz you *must* have some kind of magical crystal ball that allows you to see into the future...or maybe you can read hundreds of minds and know what all the NHLPA members think. either way, I want me some of that!
seriously...it makes me laugh when people firmly state that X amount of players will cross, blah blah blah. You have no clue how many would and how many wouldn't, not even a tiny clue.
Separate names with a comma.