1-0 lead

[Bookman]

What is the percentage of teams who went up 1-0 who won the series, especially when game 1 was one on home ice?

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[Cynick]

This year, it's 75.0% so far. Of the six teams that won the first game and went onto win the series, three did it on home ice.

 

[Sojourn]

Going up 1-0 on home ice means you're the higher seeded team.

I'd wager the numbers are pretty good.

 

[Sadekuuro]

Teams that take a 1-0 lead in a 7 game series are 426-195 (.686) all-time. Home teams are 303-99 (.754) in such series.

 

[PrototypeX85]

Game 2 winners actually have the highest series win percentage in NHL playoff history.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

Going up 1-0 on home ice means you're the higher seeded team.

I'd wager the numbers are pretty good.

That's a good point. I'd be more interested to see the lower seeded numbers after taking game 1.

 

[The Macho King]

I'd also be more interested in seeing a disparity between first and second round.

 

[Machinehead]

Teams that take a 1-0 lead in a 7 game series are 426-195 (.686) all-time. Home teams are 303-99 (.754) in such series.

I'd be interested to see how much closer that gets to .500 after the series is tied, because I'm sure it skyrockets at 2-0.

 

[Sadekuuro]

That's a good point. I'd be more interested to see the lower seeded numbers after taking game 1.

Subtract the home numbers from the total above; teams that win Game 1 on the road are 123-96 (.562) in the series.

I'd also be more interested in seeing a disparity between first and second round.

Teams winning Game 1 in the first round [four round era] are 136-80 (.630), with home G1 winners going 91-38 (.705); teams winning Game 1 in the conference semis are 129-55 (.701), with home G1 winners going 93-31 (.750).

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

I'd be interested in seeing my team win the next three games

 

[The Macho King]

Subtract the home numbers from the total above; teams that win Game 1 on the road are 123-96 (.562) in the series.



Teams winning Game 1 in the first round [four round era] are 136-80 (.630), with home G1 winners going 91-38 (.705); teams winning Game 1 in the conference semis are 129-55 (.701), with home G1 winners going 93-31 (.750).

Awesome - thanks.

 

[SotasicA]

Thank you, Sadekuuro.

/thread

Though source would be nice, so we know where to go the next time. I'm sure you didn't just tally everything yourself?

 

[NotYou]

Game 2 winners actually have the highest series win percentage in NHL playoff history.

Just might be game seven actually

 

[Baruch]

Just might be game seven actually

Darn you, was going to post the same thing!

 

[Sadekuuro]

Though source would be nice, so we know where to go the next time. I'm sure you didn't just tally everything yourself?

www.whowins.com

I'd be interested to see how much closer that gets to .500 after the series is tied, because I'm sure it skyrockets at 2-0.

As you can see from the link, they don't appear to have data for tied series, just ones where one team is ahead. I think that's because if you added everyone's numbers together you'd get exactly .500, since each 1-1 series has two teams in that situation and invariably one wins and the other loses. (The numbers are indeed brutal for teams down 0-2, though.)

I do have some team data of my own but I'd have to add them up team by team and it would probably just come out .500 anyway.

But you might be interested to know that the Rangers specifically are 12-36 (.250) in series in which they trail 0-1, but 23-21 (.523) in series tied 1-1.

 

[slappipappi]

Game 2 winners actually have the highest series win percentage in NHL playoff history.

Higher than game 7 winners? (100%)

I think what you meant, is that between game 1 winners and game 2 winners, game 2 winners have the higher win %.

 

[Not So Mighty]

Game 2 winners actually have the highest series win percentage in NHL playoff history.

I used to like that fact but having thought about it more, it's not that surprising.

If you won the second game you are either tied or winning 2-0. Being up 2-0 implies you're most probably the better team and you definitely have a much easier road to advancing. Tying the series 1-1 gains you momentum, confidence, and puts a lot of pressure on the opponent.

It makes perfect sense that history supports Game 2 winners.

 

[SavedByRoy]

If you won the second game you are either tied or winning 2-0. Being up 2-0 implies you're most probably the better team and you definitely have a much easier road to advancing. Tying the series 1-1 gains you momentum, confidence, and puts a lot of pressure on the opponent.

It makes perfect sense that history supports Game 2 winners.

Doesn't winning game 1 also gain you momentum, confidence, and puts a lot of pressure on your opponent?

 

[Tawnos]

Doesn't winning game 1 also gain you momentum, confidence, and puts a lot of pressure on your opponent?

The general impression I get is that game 1s are much more highly influenced by adrenaline. In game 2, the relative ability of the teams is more apparent.

 

[The Macho King]

The general impression I get is that game 1s are much more highly influenced by adrenaline. In game 2, the relative ability of the teams is more apparent.

That's totally baseless.

 

[Tawnos]

That's totally baseless.

Just based on watching hockey for nearly 30 years. It doesn't indicate anything about who had the edge in game 1, the favorite or the underdog.

 

[The Macho King]

Just based on watching hockey for nearly 30 years. It doesn't indicate anything about who had the edge in game 1, the favorite or the underdog.

Anecdata is the best data.

 

[Tawnos]

Anecdata is the best data.

What I said is not a quantifiable observation. Data has nothing to do with it, other than possibly giving a partial explanation for why the data looks like it does.

Data also isn't the only basis for analysis. Just one of many.

 

[Homerhawk]

I'd be interested to see how much closer that gets to .500 after the series is tied, because I'm sure it skyrockets at 2-0.

Not in DC.

 

[SladeWilson23]

Teams that take a 1-0 lead in a 7 game series are 426-195 (.686) all-time. Home teams are 303-99 (.754) in such series.

The team with the visiting ice disadvantage are 123-96 which is still pretty good. Also, home teams win game 1's 65% of the time.