⭐2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs Season Discussion Thread⭐

WTFMAN99

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Jun 17, 2009
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10gms in:

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Line 1: Matthews and Kappy have been dynamite offensively against super elite competition , but could do better possession wise. Marleau is starting to look more and more like a drag on this line.

Line 2: Tavares and Marner have been almost as explosive offensively as the top line, against elite but not quite as elite competition, and have been a bit better (but not great) possession wise. Hyman has been a good fit but he's also looking like an overall drag on this line.

Line 3: Has been a good but not great possession line relative to its average 3rd line competition. production hasn't been there yet but will likely come.

Line 4: decent 4th line against super soft competition. this is mostly thanks to leivo, who again deserves to be higher in the lineup. but at least he gets to play this year. baby steps. Johnsson should be in the lineup, too.


Pair 1: Have been excellent relative to their super elite quality of competition. A legit 1st pair.

Pair 2: The biggest issue on the team thus far. They are getting crushed in their 2nd tier quality of competition matchups. And for whatever reason, babs continues to play them more than anyone else. this has been a real problem so far.

Pair 3: Dermott is again making mincemeat out of his soft matchups, and Ozzy is doing pretty well too. They really should be getting heavier duty, especially in light of how badly the 2nd pair has struggled. Marty has been effective when he's played.


Goalies: Andy been a typically average starter so far, sparks 1 good 1 bad game I.e. typical backup.

I think I pretty much agree 100%.

3rd line with Kadri has been a bit disappointing, likely to be helped by Nylander returning and getting at least 1 upgrade at wing. Leivo at 4th line does well, he had his chance at line 3 though and didn't really do anything with it.

Pair 1, the concern will be Hainsey burning out later in the season. If we can make an acquisition that pushes him down in the line up that would likely be what is best.
 

SprDaVE

Moderator
Sep 20, 2008
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I love reading about Dubas travelling and going to games. Shows his work ethic. He doesn't have to watch the games live but it's the best way to scout and watch a game for obvious reasons.

It's no coincidence he's watching teams that are struggling and have had a lot of rumours about them though. Kings, Wild, Rangers, Flames... These are teams that definitely will have players that would bolster our quality and depth.
 

Guided by Veseys

Registered User
Nov 14, 2011
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Watching the Wild game last night it looked apparent to me that if Willy was added to their lineup he would instantly become their leading scorer and offensive leader. Dumba on defence for them is a quick thinking, all situations guy that seems like a young leader. It would be bittersweet probably for fans of both teams but a swap of those players would probably be a win/win
Gonna get flamed though because I know some people value Nylander extremely high and think Dumba is low iq.
 

SprDaVE

Moderator
Sep 20, 2008
51,546
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10gms in:

43725897_10161003139845029_2720177894373457920_n.jpg


Line 1: Matthews and Kappy have been dynamite offensively against super elite competition , but could do better possession wise. Marleau is starting to look more and more like a drag on this line.

Line 2: Tavares and Marner have been almost as explosive offensively as the top line, against elite but not quite as elite competition, and have been a bit better (but not great) possession wise. Hyman has been a good fit but he's also looking like an overall drag on this line.

Line 3: Has been a good but not great possession line relative to its average 3rd line competition. production hasn't been there yet but will likely come.

Line 4: decent 4th line against super soft competition. this is mostly thanks to leivo, who again deserves to be higher in the lineup. but at least he gets to play this year. baby steps. Johnsson should be in the lineup, too.


Pair 1: Have been excellent relative to their super elite quality of competition. A legit 1st pair.

Pair 2: The biggest issue on the team thus far. They are getting crushed in their 2nd tier quality of competition matchups. And for whatever reason, babs continues to play them more than anyone else. this has been a real problem so far.

Pair 3: Dermott is again making mincemeat out of his soft matchups, and Ozzy is doing pretty well too. They really should be getting heavier duty, especially in light of how badly the 2nd pair has struggled. Marty has been effective when he's played.


Goalies: Andy been a typically average starter so far, sparks 1 good 1 bad game I.e. typical backup.

Great stuff here. Most of these things matches the eye test.

Marleau hasn't looked good at all and isn't providing that line with much.
 

SprDaVE

Moderator
Sep 20, 2008
51,546
32,305
Watching the Wild game last night it looked apparent to me that if Willy was added to their lineup he would instantly become their leading scorer and offensive leader. Dumba on defence for them is a quick thinking, all situations guy that seems like a young leader. It would be bittersweet probably for fans of both teams but a swap of those players would probably be a win/win
Gonna get flamed though because I know some people value Nylander extremely high and think Dumba is low iq.

I think Dumba for Nylander is pretty fair on paper. I don't think the Wild have any interest in moving him though. Spurgeon and Brodin are probably on the block as attainable defenseman.

Spurgeon would be good but obviously not for Nylander straight up at all.
 

Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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A 7-3 record is good no matter how you slice it but holy crap is our division ever tough. To get to the 3rd round of the playoffs we most likely have to either beat both TB and Boston in the playoffs, or win the division and beat "only" one of these elite teams and one lesser team. I wonder which task is more daunting.

By PTS%, TB sits at 1st overall and we're in a 4-way tie for 4th with Boston and 2 other teams so tied for 2nd in our division.

It's a pretty sobering thought that we could be a very good team, have a very good season, play very well in the playoffs and still lose in the first round. Or maybe the 2nd round.

If we finish top 5 and have to play another top 5 team in the 1st round, I'm going to be pissed beyond words and would hope that the playoff format gest changed sooner as opposed to later.
 

Guided by Veseys

Registered User
Nov 14, 2011
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I think Dumba for Nylander is pretty fair on paper. I don't think the Wild have any interest in moving him though. Spurgeon and Brodin are probably on the block as attainable defenseman.

Spurgeon would be good but obviously not for Nylander straight up at all.
Yes Dumba seems like a major part of that team and is unlikely to be moved. I think it would be worth it for The Wild though, they are going nowhere, might as well get an offensive dynamo who can be the new face of the franchise. Sorry this has been off topic, meant to post it in the Nylander thread (where it would also be off topic but not quite to this extent)
 

Alerion

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Dec 24, 2012
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ESPN's Relative Power Index has us at 6th in the NHL right now... Anyone have opinions on the effectiveness of this metric?

NHL Relative Power Index - 2018-2019 - National Hockey League - ESPN

@zeke
It seems to rely entirely on win percentage and strength of schedule, without taking into account any sport specific factors because they use it for multiple sports. The fact that it has Edmonton ranked third overall even though they have a negative goal differential through 9 games probably tells you how valid it is in the NHL.
 

MyBudJT

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Mar 5, 2018
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It seems to rely entirely on win percentage and strength of schedule, without taking into account any sport specific factors because they use it for multiple sports. The fact that it has Edmonton ranked third overall even though they have a negative goal differential through 9 games probably tells you how valid it is in the NHL.

Well, Edmonton HAS had the hardest schedule so far... so I wouldn't write them off completely yet.
 

Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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It seems to rely entirely on win percentage and strength of schedule, without taking into account any sport specific factors because they use it for multiple sports. The fact that it has Edmonton ranked third overall even though they have a negative goal differential through 9 games probably tells you how valid it is in the NHL.

Yup.
 

Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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good stat. one of the only ones that considers strength of schedule, which is always crucial.

Measuring strength of schedule this early in the season is quite tricky. I have no idea how they're doing it but whatever their formula is, it would probably be pretty easy to poke holes in it.
 

Eb

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Feb 27, 2011
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Toronto
I love reading about Dubas travelling and going to games. Shows his work ethic. He doesn't have to watch the games live but it's the best way to scout and watch a game for obvious reasons
Lol. BargainBin has been praised for always being on his phone and always working. That has turned out well.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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Measuring strength of schedule this early in the season is quite tricky. I have no idea how they're doing it but whatever their formula is, it would probably be pretty easy to poke holes in it.

it's nice and simple:

Formula: 25% team winning percentage, 50% opponents' average winning percentage, and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage.
 

Melo Meds

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Jul 30, 2018
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With Matthews’s out I would put Marner with Kadri and Marleau and let Tavares drive his own line with Kappy and Hyman. We essentially become a 2 line team but that’s what happens with your missing two first line talents. We’ll be okay.
 

Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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it's nice and simple:

Formula: 25% team winning percentage, 50% opponents' average winning percentage, and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage.

Interesting, thanks. My first two thoughts would be:

1 - seems strange that opponents opponents W% is given the same weight as the teams W%.

2 - it's too early in the season for these W% to mean much.
 

Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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Andersen had a really good October yet we're only 19th overall in goals allowed per game. Not good at all. I've been insisting that we're a legit contender but it's hard to see this team going far unless we get much better at preventing goals.
 
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hockeywiz542

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May 26, 2008
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Burke proud of Leafs that remain from his tenure as GM
When Nazem Kadri and Morgan Rielly hit National Hockey League milestones on Monday night, Brian Burke couldn’t help but feel some satisfaction.

The 63-year-old Burke, now an analyst with Sportsnet, has been adamant that his days running an NHL club are over, reiterating during an interview that he is done with commuting and wants to be close to his two daughters in Toronto.

Left for Burke to ponder is what remains with the Maple Leafs from his time as general manager of the club, a tenure that started in November 2008 and ended in January 2013.

The Leafs didn’t earn a playoff berth under Burke’s watch, but several players — Kadri and Rielly especially — who became part of the organization when Burke was the GM are making a significant impact.
The list of players who became part of the Leafs organization under Burke includes defenceman Jake Gardiner (acquired from Anaheim in February 2011), winger Josh Leivo and goalie Garret Sparks (drafted 86th and 190th in 2011, respectively), and winger Connor Brown (drafted 156th in 2012).

“Your job is to leave building blocks even if you don’t have success,” Burke said. “I am proud of the guys we left here. They are all contributing.”
 

Critical13

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Feb 25, 2017
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A 7-3 record is good no matter how you slice it but holy crap is our division ever tough. To get to the 3rd round of the playoffs we most likely have to either beat both TB and Boston in the playoffs, or win the division and beat "only" one of these elite teams and one lesser team. I wonder which task is more daunting.

By PTS%, TB sits at 1st overall and we're in a 4-way tie for 4th with Boston and 2 other teams so tied for 2nd in our division.

It's a pretty sobering thought that we could be a very good team, have a very good season, play very well in the playoffs and still lose in the first round. Or maybe the 2nd round.

If we finish top 5 and have to play another top 5 team in the 1st round, I'm going to be pissed beyond words and would hope that the playoff format gest changed sooner as opposed to later.

We could miss the playoffs.
 

Critical13

Fear is the mind-killer.
Feb 25, 2017
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Sitting at a desk.
Andersen had a really good October yet we're only 19th overall in goals allowed per game. Not good at all. I've been insisting that we're a legit contender but it's hard to see this team going far unless we get much better at preventing goals.

And scoring them...how many do we have in our last 5 games? 7?

Our defensive woes are real but if we can’t be a top 5 offence, we might miss the playoffs.
 
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Gary Nylund

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We could miss the playoffs.

And scoring them...how many do we have in our last 5 games? 7?

Our defensive woes are real but if we can’t be a top 5 offence, we might miss the playoffs.

I'd say the chances of us missing the playoffs is quite slim but sure, anything's possible. At full strength we'd be close to a lock but if Nylander sits out the year, Matthews is out for a time and we can't be sure how long, if someone else gets hurt things could get iffy pretty quickly.
 

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