LeBrun: “I think there are guys that won’t be qualified that may shock you”

Oddbob

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Jan 21, 2016
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Isnt it super dumbass from EDM perspective not to qualify AA? I mean try to at least obtain assets for him, no?? He still has value doesn't he...?

Do you watch him play? He is in the Top 5 most frustrating players to watch in the entire NHL. One second he has elite hands and speed and you get all excited, but the other 95% of the time he dogs it out there with very poor defensive coverage, read and effort. He also has an aversion to even looking for teammates to pass to and loves failing at skating through 1 on 3 and 4s. He still thinks he can do the junior stuff and just skate through everyone, but he fails virtually every time.
 

Go Wings

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Sep 26, 2009
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Oh please. All of you were insisting he’d garner a 1st rd pick.

With the season he was having we were hoping someone would be dumb enough to give us a first for him. But most of us didn't expect. Then again I don't think anyone expected Tampa give a first for Coleman and Goodrow. But that is working out for them so far lol
 
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BurgoShark

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Jul 1, 2004
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Virtually all of these are locks to get qualified. Connor Brown and Anthony Duclair are the least likely of the group but even they get a QO in my opinion. None of these guys are making so much that qualifying them hurts you.
Brown and Duclair will be qualified. Same as Tierney. While there is some chance one or more of these players is traded, there is no reason to let them walk for nothing when their QO’s are so low.
 

Number 57

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Dec 21, 2004
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Timashov isn't a bum though, he gets little TOI however.

Svech in AHL if there is one, but we resigned him on a 1yr "last chance to prove it after 2 injuries " type contract, so he still has a shot.

Hirose may not be a fit for our team, just needs to add strength & improve skating a bit & another 10lbs+ of muscle wouldn't hurt either.

Perlini is the dud.

Most prospects go to NCAA because they have more free time to train, practice and work out. After 3 years, Hirose still needs to add 10 lbs of muscle and work on his skating? At 24 years of age? Are you kidding me?
 

McSuper

5-14-6-1
Jun 16, 2012
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While I agree AA may not be qualified . He will get an offer from Edmonton . In the play in round , the last two games he was driving the play .

Honest question as I never followed him when he was on the Wings . Is that typical of him ? Does he look very good for a few games then disappear again ? Hopefully the Oilers Trade him to recoup something
 

Leafmealone11

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Aug 7, 2020
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Brown and Duclair will be qualified. Same as Tierney. While there is some chance one or more of these players is traded, there is no reason to let them walk for nothing when their QO’s are so low.

Depends how the budget is, arbitration can make a guy look a little pricey so its not just the low offer in play. Some of these teams are in danger of loosing boatloads of money
 

Legion34

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Jan 24, 2006
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Brown and Duclair will be qualified. Same as Tierney. While there is some chance one or more of these players is traded, there is no reason to let them walk for nothing when their QO’s are so low.

isn’t the issue that the arbitrator could provide a contract that teams aren’t allowed to walk away from?

I don’t know the number but I’m pretty sure under a certain threshold the team can’t say no
 

The Podium

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Feb 19, 2010
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isn’t the issue that the arbitrator could provide a contract that teams aren’t allowed to walk away from?

I don’t know the number but I’m pretty sure under a certain threshold the team can’t say no

Youre correct, I dont know the exact number either but I believe its if a contract is awarded that is more than ~4 mill
 

StreetHawk

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Sep 30, 2017
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Brown and Duclair will be qualified. Same as Tierney. While there is some chance one or more of these players is traded, there is no reason to let them walk for nothing when their QO’s are so low.
It depends on whether the player has arbitration rights. Guys coming off elc generally don’t unless they are like 24 or something when they come off elc. These guys will all get qualified.

Gaudette will for sure. It would be Stecher and Virtanen. Stecher is at $2.235 mill for his cap hit while Virtanen is at $1.25 mill. Actual salary may be higher thus the QO would be their salary.

Stecher because he was behind Tanev and Myers who were able to remain in the lineup virtually all season won’t have top 4 Dman Minutes to use in his arbitration case. He’s a 3rd pairing Dman who can move into the top 4 to cover injuries. But he’s not a guy you want in the top 4 if you are a quality playoff team.

Virtanen is in that group of guys that would seem like a no brainer to qualify but that’s where you would need to project his arbitration award. Going around the nhl, it will likely take around $3 mill to get him signed. It’s cases like this that you could see teams walk away but based on age they may be able to find a taker via trade.

the ones where you can see teams walk away are similar to Burkovsky who was due $3.25 mill in a QO. If you qualify him you have to be prepared to absorb that cap charge or at least be confident about trading him.

even last season Ben Hutton didn’t get his QO at $2.8 mill because the Canucks didn’t think he was going to be worth an arbitration award of around $3.5 mill or more. he ended up with a 1 year deal for $1.5 mill in LA a week before camp opened.
 

SwedishFire

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Mar 3, 2011
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Shock me? Ok, in my world that means profiler to the club type of player, 22 year players out of their ELC, 1 - 3 rounders. Not 33 year olds with injury history
 

SimonEdvinssonAtSix

It's possible to commit no mistakes and still lose
Nov 2, 2018
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While I agree AA may not be qualified . He will get an offer from Edmonton . In the play in round , the last two games he was driving the play .

Honest question as I never followed him when he was on the Wings . Is that typical of him ? Does he look very good for a few games then disappear again ? Hopefully the Oilers Trade him to recoup something

Yes.

AA will look like a straight superstar for 2-5 games and then disappear for 10-15.
He tries to play like he can do it all alone and once in a blue moon it works. The problem is the 95% of the time that it fails and when it fails he is not even trying to use his teammates, just doubling down on going it alone.

He shows enough flashes of being great that you'll hold out hope forever. You won't want to trade him for less than a kings ransom. If I'm being honest here, the two 2nds was an overpayment.

Unless AA changes his attitude, self reflects and develops a team first game style he will never achieve being more than a 3rd line scorer.
 

Djp

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Jul 28, 2012
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~21:00 --> Leafs Lunch: September 10, 2020 - Hour 2

LeBrun made this prediction in the context of a point about arbitration, the flat cap and constrained internal budgets. Are the likes of Anthanasiou and Montour, speculated by Friedman earlier in the Summer, shocking or could he be referencing bigger names?
~21:00 --> Leafs Lunch: September 10, 2020 - Hour 2

LeBrun made this prediction in the context of a point about arbitration, the flat cap and constrained internal budgets. Are the likes of Anthanasiou and Montour, speculated by Friedman earlier in the Summer, shocking or could he be referencing bigger names?

They can still QO Montour and decide not to accept an arbitration ruling.

Montour doesnt have a leg to stand on to get anything more than say $4M

a story came out about the own wanting to be close to a $70M budget in actual salary. Buffalo can keep Montour and still be in the low $70s wuihtout any UFA signings beyond space dillers for 1 yr deals.
 

Djp

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Honestly, I don't see a single one of these guys not being qualified...

Half of these guys are on teams who have more than enough cap space to keep them. (Columbus, Buffalo, Detroit, Ottawa, and probably Dallas)

The other half are either dirt cheap coming off an ELC, or are way too good to not at least qualify at $2M - $3M and trade rather than release for free.

columbus doesnt have the cap space

the big names will be kept. It will be the secondary players affected.

You have seen this in free agency in other sports like baseball and football where the avg joe player who makes $2.5M-$5M likely loses a roster spot to a younger ELC player replacing him or if other teams collude to do this then they pick off the table scraps at a 50% markdown.

In NFL first 4 yrs under team control, then UFA so you see many veterans bounce around getting low money to just get a job where a team needs him to fill a position. The vets they keep on high salries (about 10) , used half their roster on draft picks of 4 yrs or younger, then fill the rest with lower cost free agents.

In basball same thing occurs. you dont see the avg joe 15 yr major leaguer anymore. in the 80s there wre many of these that only the home town knew them because they were around 15 yrs but nobody knows them outside the city. Now they might be with the big club 3-4 years then hit free agency age and move on to other teams or quit.

Another big factor in boith is the QO formula they have causes some of this
 

Djp

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Jul 28, 2012
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something folks might forget. I dont recall the finer points in this rule

You have a second buy out window post arbitration if you have 2 cases or more.

What i dont know if you only match the two awards can you buy out other players
 

Oddbob

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Jan 21, 2016
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Brown and Duclair will be qualified. Same as Tierney. While there is some chance one or more of these players is traded, there is no reason to let them walk for nothing when their QO’s are so low.

I know that. Which is what I said, they were just the most likely of that far fetched group, especially cause of Brown's 2 mil and Melnyk being a cheap idiot.
 

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