LeBrun: “I think there are guys that won’t be qualified that may shock you”

[TomasHertlsRooster]

His QO is not the problem. It's the arbitration award he may get. Up to ~$4.5 mil and a team is just stuck with it. Higher and a team can walk away, but he would literally have provided nothing to an acquiring organization. The risk may render him worthless to everyone.

Do you really think Edmonton would have traded two 2nd round picks for him if they weren’t even willing to spend $4.5M on him? I realize that the flat cap has changed things, but not that much.

 

[johnnybbadd]

I think that the flat cap will have a much greater effect on the UFA market than with this. Usually GMs get in their own way by signing big long term contracts to older players that have not played in a certain teams system or are on the verge of breaking down because the mileage just gets to them. If I were a GM I would make a QO and be willing to gamble on the arbitration process unless the player is complete garbage. If they are to pay too much at least it is short term on homegrown talent.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Do you really think Edmonton would have traded two 2nd round picks for him if they weren’t even willing to spend $4.5M on him? I realize that the flat cap has changed things, but not that much.

The cap was estimated to be in the $84 mil-$88 mil range for 20-21. That's a massive shortfall. The internal logic may require a change.

The Oilers didn't give up that much for him, either. 2nd round picks are moved for rentals often. Dzingel got the same return a year prior and walked that Summer.

 

[SwedishFire]

With AA , this was one of those times where a fan would be better than s real GM. A proper fan could see that there is problem behind his only asset, close to McDavid speed. What was Holland holdingbin his mind there??

 

[Fatass]

I think that the flat cap will have a much greater effect on the UFA market than with this. Usually GMs get in their own way by signing big long term contracts to older players that have not played in a certain teams system or are on the verge of breaking down because the mileage just gets to them. If I were a GM I would make a QO and be willing to gamble on the arbitration process unless the player is complete garbage. If they are to pay too much at least it is short term on homegrown talent.

Makes no sense to walk away before arbitration, no? Can’t a team walk after arbitration, or are they stuck with that player (at the arbitration number) for the year?

 

[Asymmetric Solution]

This Montour shit is comical. He’s absolutely getting a QO. Some Toronto based reporter came up with this theory to draw up controversy.

 

[explore]

Montour not getting qualified would be a disaster. They traded a 1st and a good prospect for him just a year ago, and then they spent the last year playing him on his off side with a rotating group of d-partners. They pretty much set him up to fail.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Do you really think Edmonton would have traded two 2nd round picks for him if they weren’t even willing to spend $4.5M on him? I realize that the flat cap has changed things, but not that much.

If you chasing after sunk cost that makes things worse not better. Bottom line is do you think there will be a better free agent willing to go to EDM for 4.5m?

 

[TheNewEra]

if montour isnt qualified wouldnt he be one of the top 5 best dmen available in FA?

Pietrangelo, Krug, Barrie....and

 

[doomscroll]

I’m willing to bet the the qualifier of “may” is in accordance with a more general NHL fanbase than those (myself included) who spend so many hours a week on this site. Not to say none of us will be ‘surprised’ but I doubt that a significant number of notable RFAs would be prioritized behind would-be UFAs.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

If you chasing after sunk cost that makes things worse not better. Bottom line is do you think there will be a better free agent willing to go to EDM for 4.5m?

I wouldn't have touched Athanasiou with a ten foot pole at that price in the first place but I'm not Ken Holland.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

This Montour shit is comical. He’s absolutely getting a QO. Some Toronto based reporter came up with this theory to draw up controversy.

Yeah I really can't see it, flat cap or not, Montour is worth the 3.5M investment. Someone would give up an asset for him if they really do want to cut ties.

 

[Richard88]

Yeah I really can't see it, flat cap or not, Montour is worth the 3.5M investment. Someone would give up an asset for him if they really do want to cut ties.

Depending on how ready/healthy Byram/Timmins are I'd gladly acquire Montour, as he'd be a nice fit on our 3rd pairing.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

if montour isnt qualified wouldnt he be one of the top 5 best dmen available in FA?

Pietrangelo, Krug, Barrie....and

Tanev

 

[ConnorMcNugesaitl]

With AA , this was one of those times where a fan would be better than s real GM. A proper fan could see that there is problem behind his only asset, close to McDavid speed. What was Holland holdingbin his mind there??

AA has more than speed, he's also got a pretty good shot.

Of course he also has zero hockey IQ and refuses to work hard with any consistency or even pretend to care about the puck aside from when it finds its way to his stick.

He plays a lot like a beer leaguer, only willing to work if the puck is on his stick otherwise he has no interest in the play.

 

[Stephen]

In a pandemic economy, I could see some of those names not getting qualified. Millions are worth more to businesses than hockey players.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Isnt it super dumbass from EDM perspective not to qualify AA? I mean try to at least obtain assets for him, no?? He still has value doesn't he...?

I think push comes to shove they’d qualify him, they have the space. But likely the hopes they can forego a one year qualifying offer and get him signed for 2-3 years at a cheaper cap hit then 3M. This way he gets more guaranteed money and some security. Because if he has a bad year next season he could be in a spot where next season he’s signing a 1yr/1m or less.

 

[Chayos]

If Edmonton doesn't qualify AA it will be because they need to spend that money on something else like a Goalie or defence man upgrade in UFA. That player or those players have no asset cost , so giving up 2 seconds to sign Hall, Krug, Barrie or Petro is still good value. I really wish an Oiler Gm would win a trade once in a while though.

 

[Legion34]

It’s only arb eligible players I believe that are at real risk.


The team can’t risk being taken to arb

 

[Go Wings]

How f***ing hilarious would it be if Stevie traded AA for two 2nd rounders, only saw him play 13 games in Edmonton, and then signed him back.

No Red Wings fan would be laughing. Most of us were happy to get rid of him.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

No Red Wings fan would be laughing. Most of us were happy to get rid of him.

And I'll be happy to get rid of him again, for more picks.

 

[biotk]

if montour isnt qualified wouldnt he be one of the top 5 best dmen available in FA?

Pietrangelo, Krug, Barrie....and

Tanev, Brodie, Vatanen, Buff, etc. (Personally I would rather have Hamonic, Gudas, Dillon, Demelo, Braun, Shattenkirk, Borowiecki and Edmundson, but most of those would depend on team needs - I wouldn't for instance take Barrie for league min).

The reality is that Montour is fairly one-dimensional, so his value on the market would depend on what teams are looking for what he brings. Would he get more than his 3.525M QO? I have my doubts.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Barzal, Mathew		NYI	23	C	Right		85	24	50	74	10	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Burakovsky, André		COL	25	LW, RW	Left		73	27	35	62	18	-	-	-	-		$3,250,000
Strome, Ryan		NYR	27	C, RW	Right		73	18	43	61	18	-	-	-	-		$3,100,000
Dubois, Pierre-Luc		CBJ	22	C, LW	Left		80	22	37	59	1	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Deangelo, Anthony		NYR	24	RD	Right		71	15	39	54	6	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Kubalik, Dominik		CHI	25	LW	Left		77	34	20	54	0	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Reinhart, Sam		BUF	24	RW, C	Right		69	22	28	50	-15	-	-	-	-		$3,650,000
Cirelli, Anthony		TBL	23	C	Left		82	18	31	49	27	-	-	-	-		$717,500
Bertuzzi, Tyler		DET	25	LW, RW	Left		71	21	27	48	-23	-	-	-	-		$1,400,000
Domi, Max		MTL	25	C, LW	Left		81	17	30	47	-5	-	-	-	-		$3,150,000
Gurianov, Denis		DAL	23	LW	Left		82	28	16	44	6	-	-	-	-		$894,166
Brown, Connor		OTT	26	LW, RW	Right		71	16	27	43	-6	-	-	-	-		$2,100,000
Hintz, Roope		DAL	23	C, LW	Left		78	21	22	43	2	-	-	-	-		$811,667
Pulock, Ryan		NYI	25	RD	Right		85	11	32	43	9	-	-	-	-		$2,000,000
Olofsson, Victor		BUF	25	LW, RW	Left		54	20	22	42	-1	-	-	-	-		$767,500
Strome, Dylan		CHI	23	C	Left		67	14	27	41	-2	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Duclair, Anthony		OTT	25	LW, RW	Left		66	23	17	40	-5	-	-	-	-		$1,650,000
DeBrusk, Jake		BOS	23	LW	Left		78	23	16	39	-4	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Sergachev, Mikhail		TBL	22	LD	Left		84	11	28	39	20	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Mantha, Anthony		DET	25	RW, LW	Left		43	16	22	38	-7	-	-	-	-		$3,300,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

These are the 20 "bigger name" RFAs. Which of these won't be getting QO?

I didn't check them all, but the qualifying offer is based on their base salary in the last year of their deal so Ryan Pulock for example would need to be qualified at $2.65M, the fact that his cap-hit is $2M is irrelevant. I'm sure it won't change the fact that nearly all these players will receive the QO's, but it might make the decision a bit tougher in some cases.

 

[StreetHawk]

I think that the flat cap will have a much greater effect on the UFA market than with this. Usually GMs get in their own way by signing big long term contracts to older players that have not played in a certain teams system or are on the verge of breaking down because the mileage just gets to them. If I were a GM I would make a QO and be willing to gamble on the arbitration process unless the player is complete garbage. If they are to pay too much at least it is short term on homegrown talent.

The other aspect are guys in their mid 20’s who do make $2.3-$3 mill on their bridge deals. That’s why Burkovsky got traded as the capitals were not going to want him on the roster at his QO. Once you make the QO you can’t walk away unless the player goes to arbitration and gets an awards something in the $4 mill odd range where a team can walk away otherwise they have to take the player if he signs the QO and you have your hands tied being at or near the cap with someone you don’t really want for the number.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

With AA , this was one of those times where a fan would be better than s real GM. A proper fan could see that there is problem behind his only asset, close to McDavid speed. What was Holland holdingbin his mind there??

I won't disagree that it probably wasn't the wisest move, but speed is not his only asset, he is a talented player and no one gets 30 goals from speed alone, he has a knack for scoring goals and is one of the deadlier players in the league on a breakaway. Though I will fully admit he is deficient in multiple other aspects of his game.