LeBrun: “I think there are guys that won’t be qualified that may shock you”

[Big Daddy Cane]

~21:00 --> Leafs Lunch: September 10, 2020 - Hour 2

LeBrun made this prediction in the context of a point about arbitration, the flat cap and constrained internal budgets. Are the likes of Anthanasiou and Montour, speculated by Friedman earlier in the Summer, shocking or could he be referencing bigger names?

Click to read more...

 

[A Loyal Dog]

Barzal, Mathew		NYI	23	C	Right		85	24	50	74	10	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Burakovsky, André		COL	25	LW, RW	Left		73	27	35	62	18	-	-	-	-		$3,250,000
Strome, Ryan		NYR	27	C, RW	Right		73	18	43	61	18	-	-	-	-		$3,100,000
Dubois, Pierre-Luc		CBJ	22	C, LW	Left		80	22	37	59	1	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Deangelo, Anthony		NYR	24	RD	Right		71	15	39	54	6	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Kubalik, Dominik		CHI	25	LW	Left		77	34	20	54	0	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Reinhart, Sam		BUF	24	RW, C	Right		69	22	28	50	-15	-	-	-	-		$3,650,000
Cirelli, Anthony		TBL	23	C	Left		82	18	31	49	27	-	-	-	-		$717,500
Bertuzzi, Tyler		DET	25	LW, RW	Left		71	21	27	48	-23	-	-	-	-		$1,400,000
Domi, Max		MTL	25	C, LW	Left		81	17	30	47	-5	-	-	-	-		$3,150,000
Gurianov, Denis		DAL	23	LW	Left		82	28	16	44	6	-	-	-	-		$894,166
Brown, Connor		OTT	26	LW, RW	Right		71	16	27	43	-6	-	-	-	-		$2,100,000
Hintz, Roope		DAL	23	C, LW	Left		78	21	22	43	2	-	-	-	-		$811,667
Pulock, Ryan		NYI	25	RD	Right		85	11	32	43	9	-	-	-	-		$2,000,000
Olofsson, Victor		BUF	25	LW, RW	Left		54	20	22	42	-1	-	-	-	-		$767,500
Strome, Dylan		CHI	23	C	Left		67	14	27	41	-2	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Duclair, Anthony		OTT	25	LW, RW	Left		66	23	17	40	-5	-	-	-	-		$1,650,000
DeBrusk, Jake		BOS	23	LW	Left		78	23	16	39	-4	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Sergachev, Mikhail		TBL	22	LD	Left		84	11	28	39	20	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Mantha, Anthony		DET	25	RW, LW	Left		43	16	22	38	-7	-	-	-	-		$3,300,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

These are the 20 "bigger name" RFAs. Which of these won't be getting QO?

 

[trick9]

All of them will be getting QO. He propably means that someone other than waiver fodder won't get QO. I would guess Athanasiou.

 

[Evergreen]

^^^ I doubt any of those guys isn't qualified. I'm thinking guys like Montour, Tierney, Athanasiou, Evan Rodrigues, Jankowski are potentially not getting qualified.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Barzal, Mathew		NYI	23	C	Right		85	24	50	74	10	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Burakovsky, André		COL	25	LW, RW	Left		73	27	35	62	18	-	-	-	-		$3,250,000
Strome, Ryan		NYR	27	C, RW	Right		73	18	43	61	18	-	-	-	-		$3,100,000
Dubois, Pierre-Luc		CBJ	22	C, LW	Left		80	22	37	59	1	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Deangelo, Anthony		NYR	24	RD	Right		71	15	39	54	6	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Kubalik, Dominik		CHI	25	LW	Left		77	34	20	54	0	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Reinhart, Sam		BUF	24	RW, C	Right		69	22	28	50	-15	-	-	-	-		$3,650,000
Cirelli, Anthony		TBL	23	C	Left		82	18	31	49	27	-	-	-	-		$717,500
Bertuzzi, Tyler		DET	25	LW, RW	Left		71	21	27	48	-23	-	-	-	-		$1,400,000
Domi, Max		MTL	25	C, LW	Left		81	17	30	47	-5	-	-	-	-		$3,150,000
Gurianov, Denis		DAL	23	LW	Left		82	28	16	44	6	-	-	-	-		$894,166
Brown, Connor		OTT	26	LW, RW	Right		71	16	27	43	-6	-	-	-	-		$2,100,000
Hintz, Roope		DAL	23	C, LW	Left		78	21	22	43	2	-	-	-	-		$811,667
Pulock, Ryan		NYI	25	RD	Right		85	11	32	43	9	-	-	-	-		$2,000,000
Olofsson, Victor		BUF	25	LW, RW	Left		54	20	22	42	-1	-	-	-	-		$767,500
Strome, Dylan		CHI	23	C	Left		67	14	27	41	-2	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Duclair, Anthony		OTT	25	LW, RW	Left		66	23	17	40	-5	-	-	-	-		$1,650,000
DeBrusk, Jake		BOS	23	LW	Left		78	23	16	39	-4	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Sergachev, Mikhail		TBL	22	LD	Left		84	11	28	39	20	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Mantha, Anthony		DET	25	RW, LW	Left		43	16	22	38	-7	-	-	-	-		$3,300,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

These are the top 20 RFAs. Which of these won't be getting QO?

All of those will. I don't think it's these levels of players that have to worry about not getting a QO. Maybe someone like Montour or Athanasiou. I don't think there will be that many real NHL'ers that are let to walk.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

These are the top 20 RFAs. Which of these won't be getting QO?

A lot of the sexier names on that list aren't eligible for arbitration. LeBrun got on this point after talking about Murray's arbitration risk being a potential area of concern for Edmonton in trade talks.

Arbitration Calculator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[xECK29x]

Ho-Sang 100% isn't going to be qualified

 

[Canada4Gold]

The only guys on that list I even had to think twice about were Duclair and Brown and that's only because Melnyk is cheap.

 

[Sam Pollock]

I can see Jankowski not getting a QO from Calgary.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

The only guys on that list I even had to think twice about were Duclair and Brown and that's only because Melnyk is cheap.

Lmao. Zero percent chance Brown isnt QO'd, and pretty damn close to zero for Duclair. Pretty bad take.

 

[Habs Halifax]

^^^ I doubt any of those guys isn't qualified. I'm thinking guys like Montour, Tierney, Athanasiou, Evan Rodrigues, Jankowski are potentially not getting qualified.

AA is the correct answer.

 

[FedorTyutin]

Isnt it super dumbass from EDM perspective not to qualify AA? I mean try to at least obtain assets for him, no?? He still has value doesn't he...?

 

[PensandCaps]

Isnt it super dumbass from EDM perspective not to qualify AA? I mean try to at least obtain assets for him, no?? He still has value doesn't he...?

Idk. There is a reason why they played him so little. His game aside from scoring goals is terrible

 

[GoldiFox]

Isnt it super dumbass from EDM perspective not to qualify AA? I mean try to at least obtain assets for him, no?? He still has value doesn't he...?

Two 2nd round picks traded to end up not qualifying AA. Rough for Edmonton.

Maybe there is just no market for him going into arbitration.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

The only guys on that list I even had to think twice about were Duclair and Brown and that's only because Melnyk is cheap.

Lol true. They both hold pretty good trade value, if they weren't getting qualified they'd already be traded to somewhere they would be (literally any team).

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Isnt it super dumbass from EDM perspective not to qualify AA? I mean try to at least obtain assets for him, no?? He still has value doesn't he...?

I'm not sure how effective trading out an arbitration risk will be. The bulk of the league is feeling a squeeze in some way. AA's open market value will depend on cap space and broader market conditions. An arbitrator's decision will not.

 

[tenken00]

All of those will. I don't think it's these levels of players that have to worry about not getting a QO. Maybe someone like Montour or Athanasiou. I don't think there will be that many real NHL'ers that are let to walk.

But neither would be ultimately shocking. LeBrun also mentioned that teams are imposing their own internal salary cap on themselves, below the NHL salary cap. I think some teams probably are in dire straights financially, critical dire straights even, due to no attendance revenue. Things might be less about winning a Cup and more about surviving for next year.

 

[joestevens29]

Isnt it super dumbass from EDM perspective not to qualify AA? I mean try to at least obtain assets for him, no?? He still has value doesn't he...?

Here's the problem. If Tippett doesn't really see a player there and is going to use him in the bottom six or as a healthy scratch does it make sense to invest 3mil in the guy? Or do you cut your losses?

It sucks and at the time of the deal we thought we'd see an increase in the salary cap which should've made it quite easy for us to re-sign him.

I could see them talking to Buffalo about Montour though. Try a different piece in another area of need.

Ideally I'd like to give him another shot, but the tight cap may dictate otherwise.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

But neither would be ultimately shocking. LeBrun also mentioned that teams are imposing their own internal salary cap on themselves, below the NHL salary cap. I think some teams probably are in dire straights financially, critical dire straights even, due to no attendance revenue. It might be now less about winning a Cup and all about surviving. Things might be less about winning a Cup and more about surviving for next year.

Of course Montour and Athanasiou would still be shocking even if there is some expectation of it. It's not normal for those types of players, warts and all, to not get a QO.

 

[LeonDraisaitl]

Ho-Sang 100% isn't going to be qualified

“Shock you”

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Barzal, Mathew		NYI	23	C	Right		85	24	50	74	10	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Burakovsky, André		COL	25	LW, RW	Left		73	27	35	62	18	-	-	-	-		$3,250,000
Strome, Ryan		NYR	27	C, RW	Right		73	18	43	61	18	-	-	-	-		$3,100,000
Dubois, Pierre-Luc		CBJ	22	C, LW	Left		80	22	37	59	1	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Deangelo, Anthony		NYR	24	RD	Right		71	15	39	54	6	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Kubalik, Dominik		CHI	25	LW	Left		77	34	20	54	0	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Reinhart, Sam		BUF	24	RW, C	Right		69	22	28	50	-15	-	-	-	-		$3,650,000
Cirelli, Anthony		TBL	23	C	Left		82	18	31	49	27	-	-	-	-		$717,500
Bertuzzi, Tyler		DET	25	LW, RW	Left		71	21	27	48	-23	-	-	-	-		$1,400,000
Domi, Max		MTL	25	C, LW	Left		81	17	30	47	-5	-	-	-	-		$3,150,000
Gurianov, Denis		DAL	23	LW	Left		82	28	16	44	6	-	-	-	-		$894,166
Brown, Connor		OTT	26	LW, RW	Right		71	16	27	43	-6	-	-	-	-		$2,100,000
Hintz, Roope		DAL	23	C, LW	Left		78	21	22	43	2	-	-	-	-		$811,667
Pulock, Ryan		NYI	25	RD	Right		85	11	32	43	9	-	-	-	-		$2,000,000
Olofsson, Victor		BUF	25	LW, RW	Left		54	20	22	42	-1	-	-	-	-		$767,500
Strome, Dylan		CHI	23	C	Left		67	14	27	41	-2	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Duclair, Anthony		OTT	25	LW, RW	Left		66	23	17	40	-5	-	-	-	-		$1,650,000
DeBrusk, Jake		BOS	23	LW	Left		78	23	16	39	-4	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Sergachev, Mikhail		TBL	22	LD	Left		84	11	28	39	20	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Mantha, Anthony		DET	25	RW, LW	Left		43	16	22	38	-7	-	-	-	-		$3,300,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

These are the 20 "bigger name" RFAs. Which of these won't be getting QO?

Honestly, I don't see a single one of these guys not being qualified...

Half of these guys are on teams who have more than enough cap space to keep them. (Columbus, Buffalo, Detroit, Ottawa, and probably Dallas)

The other half are either dirt cheap coming off an ELC, or are way too good to not at least qualify at $2M - $3M and trade rather than release for free.

 

[tenken00]

Of course Montour and Athanasiou would still be shocking even if there is some expectation of it. It's not normal for those types of players, warts and all, to not get a QO.

Maybe. It could be how you interpret the word, but I think if you kind of expect something, it's not really shocking. Surprising maybe.. but shocking? Who knows?

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Isnt it super dumbass from EDM perspective not to qualify AA? I mean try to at least obtain assets for him, no?? He still has value doesn't he...?

How f***ing hilarious would it be if Stevie traded AA for two 2nd rounders, only saw him play 13 games in Edmonton, and then signed him back.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Spitballing here, but what about AA for Montour? 2 players that could benefit the other team...

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Barzal, Mathew		NYI	23	C	Right		85	24	50	74	10	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Burakovsky, André		COL	25	LW, RW	Left		73	27	35	62	18	-	-	-	-		$3,250,000
Strome, Ryan		NYR	27	C, RW	Right		73	18	43	61	18	-	-	-	-		$3,100,000
Dubois, Pierre-Luc		CBJ	22	C, LW	Left		80	22	37	59	1	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Deangelo, Anthony		NYR	24	RD	Right		71	15	39	54	6	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Kubalik, Dominik		CHI	25	LW	Left		77	34	20	54	0	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Reinhart, Sam		BUF	24	RW, C	Right		69	22	28	50	-15	-	-	-	-		$3,650,000
Cirelli, Anthony		TBL	23	C	Left		82	18	31	49	27	-	-	-	-		$717,500
Bertuzzi, Tyler		DET	25	LW, RW	Left		71	21	27	48	-23	-	-	-	-		$1,400,000
Domi, Max		MTL	25	C, LW	Left		81	17	30	47	-5	-	-	-	-		$3,150,000
Gurianov, Denis		DAL	23	LW	Left		82	28	16	44	6	-	-	-	-		$894,166
Brown, Connor		OTT	26	LW, RW	Right		71	16	27	43	-6	-	-	-	-		$2,100,000
Hintz, Roope		DAL	23	C, LW	Left		78	21	22	43	2	-	-	-	-		$811,667
Pulock, Ryan		NYI	25	RD	Right		85	11	32	43	9	-	-	-	-		$2,000,000
Olofsson, Victor		BUF	25	LW, RW	Left		54	20	22	42	-1	-	-	-	-		$767,500
Strome, Dylan		CHI	23	C	Left		67	14	27	41	-2	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Duclair, Anthony		OTT	25	LW, RW	Left		66	23	17	40	-5	-	-	-	-		$1,650,000
DeBrusk, Jake		BOS	23	LW	Left		78	23	16	39	-4	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Sergachev, Mikhail		TBL	22	LD	Left		84	11	28	39	20	-	-	-	-		$925,000
Mantha, Anthony		DET	25	RW, LW	Left		43	16	22	38	-7	-	-	-	-		$3,300,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

These are the 20 "bigger name" RFAs. Which of these won't be getting QO?

He's talking more like Montour and Athanasiou guys like that. Not any of these players all will easily be qualified. As far as Detroit is concerned maybe guys like Erne, Perlini and Bowey don't get qualified but that's no big deal. Bertuzzi and Mantha will be signed Detroit has no cap issues and a owner that's not affraid to spend.