Some of you may remember my 2017-18 WAR leaders thread last fall. I have been tinkering with the formula and values all season. One of the major differences is the incorporation of XG. Pretty happy with the formula for forwards now. Plugged the stats from this season in ( all data via Corsica) and these are the results. Keep in mind these are wins over an AVERAGE forward.... I haven't factored in replacement level yet. I added in the players points at time of data retrieval and the difference between their point rank and WAA rank for comparison. Let me know any questions you have over the formula or feel free to ask for a specific player or teams WAA. Without further ado, here are the top 50 forwards in WAA so far this season:
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Player | WAA | WAA RANK | P | P RANK | DIFF |
JOHNNY.GAUDREAU | 6.128512221 | 1 | 67 | 4 | 3 |
SIDNEY.CROSBY | 5.362945161 | 2 | 60 | 13 | 11 |
NIKITA.KUCHEROV | 5.280678949 | 3 | 80 | 1 | -2 |
JOHN.TAVARES | 5.064644295 | 4 | 54 | 19 | 15 |
ARTEMI.PANARIN | 4.861820101 | 5 | 61 | 9 | 4 |
BRAYDEN.POINT | 4.515709673 | 6 | 65 | 5 | -1 |
CONNOR.MCDAVID | 4.492383551 | 7 | 72 | 2 | -5 |
DAVID.PASTRNAK | 4.22800545 | 8 | 61 | 10 | 2 |
JAKE.GUENTZEL | 4.152420139 | 9 | 50 | 28 | 19 |
SEAN.MONAHAN | 4.035372228 | 10 | 56 | 17 | 7 |
MITCH.MARNER | 4.008122613 | 11 | 60 | 12 | 1 |
STEVEN.STAMKOS | 3.949058578 | 12 | 61 | 11 | -1 |
AUSTON.MATTHEWS | 3.869812092 | 13 | 45 | 48 | 35 |
PATRICE.BERGERON | 3.523106519 | 14 | 46 | 47 | 33 |
ELIAS.PETTERSSON | 3.477212845 | 15 | 48 | 37 | 22 |
MARK.STONE | 3.390702975 | 16 | 50 | 30 | 14 |
RYAN.O'REILLY | 3.38217774 | 17 | 50 | 32 | 15 |
TIMO.MEIER | 3.31813091 | 18 | 42 | 61 | 43 |
LEON.DRAISAITL | 3.25986298 | 19 | 63 | 6 | -13 |
NATHAN.MACKINNON | 3.242308186 | 20 | 63 | 8 | -12 |
BRAD.MARCHAND | 3.193304987 | 21 | 57 | 15 | -6 |
EVANDER.KANE | 3.17269938 | 22 | 47 | 39 | 17 |
JOE.PAVELSKI | 3.150342164 | 23 | 46 | 45 | 22 |
SEBASTIAN.AHO | 3.147294103 | 24 | 52 | 22 | -2 |
TOMAS.HERTL | 3.065915985 | 25 | 45 | 51 | 26 |
MATT.DUCHENE | 3.059592806 | 26 | 45 | 50 | 24 |
JEFF.SKINNER | 3.030674388 | 27 | 46 | 44 | 17 |
PATRICK.KANE | 2.951518802 | 28 | 68 | 3 | -25 |
CAM.ATKINSON | 2.907013342 | 29 | 50 | 27 | -2 |
ELIAS.LINDHOLM | 2.776049336 | 30 | 51 | 23 | -7 |
JACK.EICHEL | 2.703082453 | 31 | 51 | 26 | -5 |
TYLER.SEGUIN | 2.573144023 | 32 | 49 | 35 | 3 |
VIKTOR.ARVIDSSON | 2.541931647 | 33 | 28 | 122 | 89 |
TOMAS.TATAR | 2.504676418 | 34 | 39 | 70 | 36 |
BRENDAN.GALLAGHER | 2.376538312 | 35 | 34 | 88 | 53 |
MATTHEW.TKACHUK | 2.374989921 | 36 | 48 | 38 | 2 |
LOGAN.COUTURE | 2.363713866 | 37 | 47 | 40 | 3 |
PHILLIP.DANAULT | 2.361665416 | 38 | 36 | 82 | 44 |
MIKKO.RANTANEN | 2.313485943 | 39 | 63 | 7 | -32 |
GUSTAV.NYQUIST | 2.269899893 | 40 | 44 | 52 | 12 |
ALEX.OVECHKIN | 2.239740593 | 41 | 57 | 14 | -27 |
DYLAN.LARKIN | 2.161235373 | 42 | 43 | 57 | 15 |
RYAN.JOHANSEN | 2.145086411 | 43 | 44 | 54 | 11 |
ALEX.TUCH | 2.11802883 | 44 | 38 | 72 | 28 |
CLAUDE.GIROUX | 2.087347078 | 45 | 53 | 21 | -24 |
MATHEW.BARZAL | 2.072003948 | 46 | 47 | 41 | -5 |
FILIP.FORSBERG | 2.071046599 | 47 | 28 | 116 | 69 |
MARK.SCHEIFELE | 1.965360429 | 48 | 54 | 20 | -28 |
CHRIS.KREIDER | 1.934799052 | 49 | 42 | 60 | 11 |
PIERRE-LUC.DUBOIS | 1.910724547 | 50 | 43 | 58 | 8 |