Zach Bogosians contract - are we undervaluing him?

[allan5oh]

I guess some people missed that game vs. the Islanders at the end of the year when Bogosian completely shut down Tavares, and scored a goal to boot. Tavares was -2 IIRC.

 

[allan5oh]

We keep talking about the term as being very likely in the 5+ years range. Just a crazy thought here but what if TNSE tries to negotiate with a bridge contract a la Subban, with a lower AAV but padded with bonuses. If he continues his progression and realizes some of that potential then he gets his payday. The mutual commitment on the part of the Jets and Bogosian to him being here long term might guard against him walking away afterward.

What players may earn in performance bonuses?

Performance bonuses will only be permissible for the following types of players: (1) players on entry-level contracts; (2) players signing one-year contracts after returning from long-term injuries (players with 400 or more games who spent 100 or more days on injured reserve in the last year of their most recent contract); and senior veteran players who sign a one-year contract after the age of 35.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26366

 

[Positive]

I guess some people missed that game vs. the Islanders at the end of the year when Bogosian completely shut down Tavares, and scored a goal to boot. Tavares was -2 IIRC.

One game does not a 6 million dollar contract make. Howabout the game against a Crosby-less Pens last year where he was -3, worst of the Jets D and was 4th in minutes, not shutting down Pascal Dupuis, etc. etc.

 

[bazaaa*]

I guess some people missed that game vs. the Islanders at the end of the year when Bogosian completely shut down Tavares, and scored a goal to boot. Tavares was -2 IIRC.

Yes, for that one game alone we should give him whatever he wants!

I remember a game Mittens got a goal, but I wouldn't pay him as if he was an 82 goal scorer.

That being said, I hope we lock Bogo up 6-8 years, he is my favorite player, and I think he's going to get better and better. On top of that, he seems like he wants to be here long term, which is gerat. See him in the news often for appearnces even in the off season.

Some of us may over rate him, but he has too much potential to simply ignore it.

PS, I'm going to wake up to this being a done deal tomorrow!

 

[allan5oh]

One game does not a 6 million dollar contract make. Howabout the game against a Crosby-less Pens last year where he was -3, worst of the Jets D and was 4th in minutes, not shutting down Pascal Dupuis, etc. etc.

Oh I couldn't agree more, but there's value when a guy can shut down an elite center when we're in a playoff race with his team. The guy is getting better. I still think he'll sign for a hair below $5 million due to the contracts to Hamonic, Smid, and Mcdonagh. I think 6 years $4.5 million could be expected. However given the couple of surprises lately, I decided to start this thread and stir the pot. It worked.

 

[Unholy goalie]

TNSE is one step ahead of you. Bogosian just finished his 2 year bridge contract a la Subban. It was a 2 year deal for a less than $3M. He becomes a UFA in 2 years.

Gotcha. That's a bit stickier than I had originally understood it. Also thanks to allan5oh for the contract clarification.

So yeah.. Bogo's contract becomes a bit of a wild card. Does TNSE shell out for potential (5.5-6mil AAV) or stick to market value (~5mil AAV)? I can't see term being any longer than 6 years if they are going to pay top dollar.

 

[Bob E]

Bogo should come in around $5 mill, I could see up to $5.5, but I haven't been right this off-season, yet.

We should find out by Wednesday, I'm thinking.

 

[KingBogo]

At the end of the day I am a Zach Bogosian fanboy so I should probably defer to others. Good thing for the Jets I'm not the GM

I don't know Jet, I think your prediction will be closer than all those using recent comparables. If Bogo goes to arbitration Chevy's offseason strategy will take a huge blow. He is signing his core to slightly inflated contracts, but they like it in Winnipeg and want to stay. Chevy is showing loyalty and his players are showing it back. Unless we become a contender UFA's won't be identifying us a destination of choice. This organization is absolutely ****** if our top players start wanting out as they start hitting their primes and UFA years.

Now it is Bogo's turn, which IMO is the trickiest for Chevy. He hasn't proven quite as much as he would like. But no one on the current roster has more potential and no one has shown more of a commitment to the city than Bogo. Consequently he has become a fan favorite. How much is that worth to Chevy and True North? How much will Bogo's Winnipeg loyalty premium be worth? So far with Little and Wheeler it seems the going rate is approx 1/2 million. IMO True North sees this as money well spent. The long term financial damage would be far greater if guys like Toby, Little, Wheeler, Bogo, Ladd start walking in UFA years. Over time the Jets would become a perennial bottom dweller and feeder team for the rest of the league. After the honeymoon period ends in Winnipeg it needs to be replaced by contender period and part of that price is paying top $ now to keep the talent you already have.

IMO recent RFA signings can't account for that. While the RFA market seems a little depressed at the moment you change that R to a U and the world throws cash at a d-man with Bogo's potential.

 

[PhilJets]

8 years
1st 4 years cap hit.... 5.0M
last 4 years cap hit... 6.0M

4.5
5.0
5.0
5.5
5.5
6.0
6.0
6.5

is that possible?

 

[King Woodballs]

8 years
1st 4 years cap hit.... 5.0M
last 4 years cap hit... 6.0M

4.5
5.0
5.0
5.5
5.5
6.0
6.0
6.5

is that possible?

No it isnt, in the sense that the cap hit doesnt change over the length of the contract.
So in your scenario, the actual cap hit will be 5.5.

 

[PhilJets]

ok thanks! Go Jets Go

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

8 years
1st 4 years cap hit.... 5.0M
last 4 years cap hit... 6.0M

4.5
5.0
5.0
5.5
5.5
6.0
6.0
6.5

is that possible?

Total cap hit of 5.5 mill over 8 years ......I would do this contract........ if it is a 6 yr deal, cap hit should be closer to 5 mill.

 

[Huffer]

My question is don't you think McDonaugh and Hamonic's agents did the exact same thing when sitting down with the GM's of both the Rangers and Islanders? Why is it that those players were able to come to long term deals under 5 Mil but Bogosian's camp will come in closer to 6? I would agree that Bogosian might have higher upside then McDanaugh and Hamonic but it imo it isn't 1.3 and 2.3 million more respectively. He also hasn't proven he is worth as much as OEL who signed his deal when the cap was higher. I really think a 6 year 30 to 31.5 million deal is more than fair for what he has proven to date while also accounting for untapped potential.

Heh, I don't think I've made a single prediction on salaries this off-season.

6 years/$29.7M (4.95 AAV). At this point, I can't see how Bogosian's camp can make a case for over $5.0M when you look at what McDonagh got paid this off-season. They have similar production at even strength, they both play hard minutes, McDonagh does a better job possession-wise, Bogo can play the PP and probably has a slightly higher offensive ceiling.

My thoughts as well. I really want to see Bogo locked up for 6+ years, but if we are paying 1.5 to 2.5 million more per year than McDonnagh and Hammonic, that is not a good thing.

 

[Dascow]

If Enstrom makes 5.7 mil a year, shouldn't Bogosian be close to that?

 

[surixon]

If Enstrom makes 5.7 mil a year, shouldn't Bogosian be close to that?

Enstrom's Resume was superior at the time of signing as well all the years purchased in his contract were UFA years. Bogo will have 2 RFA years on his next contract.

 

[Dascow]

Enstrom's Resume was superior at the time of signing as well all the years purchased in his contract were UFA years. Bogo will have 2 RFA years on his next contract.

At this point, who do you think is the better defenceman?

 

[surixon]

If Enstrom makes 5.7 mil a year, shouldn't Bogosian be close to that?

Enstrom's Resume was superior at the time of signing as well all the years purchased in his contract were UFA years. Bogo will have 2 RFA years on his next contract.

 

[Shakey Rustie]

August 2nd is Bogo's arbitration day, no?

 

[Positive]

At this point, who do you think is the better defenceman?

Injuries (or theories of being 'injury-prone') notwithstanding? Bogo is more athletic and physical. Enstrom is a better PMD and PP QB while still being defensively solid. I would take Enstrom. Ask me again in a year or two...

 

[GoJetsGo55]

Listened to Lawless (ugh) this morning and he said that Bogo's camp was looking for Doughty money again on this contract.

There is no way in hell he gets close to that amount. I love the guy and think that he will be our best D-man in the next few years. That being said, he should be in the 5 to 5.5 range for the next 6 to 8 years. As it's been said, lower pay in the beginning that will increase towards the end.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I think he should get more than Kane. $5.5m per year over 6 years seems reasonable.

 

[SCP Guy]

8 year 40.8 mil........Not a penny more as with the term its very fair


He has not been "the man" yet....so he can't get paid like "the man".

I think he could be great but you know what they say about ifs and buts

 

[garret9]

At this point, who do you think is the better defenceman?

Are you including potential or not?

Remember potential and style are part of the reason why we like Bogo a lot. But one only affects contract value a tiny bit and the other not at all.

 

[surixon]

Listened to Lawless (ugh) this morning and he said that Bogo's camp was looking for Doughty money again on this contract.

There is no way in hell he gets close to that amount. I love the guy and think that he will be our best D-man in the next few years. That being said, he should be in the 5 to 5.5 range for the next 6 to 8 years. As it's been said, lower pay in the beginning that will increase towards the end.

Well if that's what he's looking for and isn't willing to take fair value then you take him to arbitration get the one year deal and move him next year! I'm not a fan of people substantially overestimating their worth if that is what's going on here.

 

[Guerzy]

I was pretty close on Little. I estimated we'd have to pay him a minimum of 4.5, but in buying his UFA years we may have to push the envelope to 4.8 (similar to the Gagner deal), they settled on 4.7. I figured he'd get 4 years and he got 5. Had Little hit UFA next July, I figured a team would easily pony up 4.5-5 million per season for his services.

For Wheeler, I estimated 5 years and he got 6. Salary wise, I figured this season being his last as RFA status may have dipped on the cheaper side of the deal in actual dollars as Bryan Little did, but as far as buying his UFA years, that was coming at a price and I estimated 5.5 million through those UFA years, he got 5.6. Had Wheeler hit UFA next July, I figured a team would easily pony up 5.5-6 million per season for his services.


Not to toot my own horn p, but I'll put my track record here on the line and estimate what I believe Bogosian will get.

Bogosian has 2 more seasons as RFA years/contractual status, so they'll come a little cheaper, in my opinion. But after that, the price tag will rise accordingly for a mid-twenties defenceman in his prime years, with the draft status Zach has (3rd overall) and being en route to fulfilling his potential in which we've seen and been very happy with over the last 2 years in Winnipeg. His injury history won't effect the price that much, in my opinion. Whether we pay Zach or not, another team will, he knows it and Chevy knows it.

Here is my estimated guess for Zach Bogosian.

7 years, 36.5 million. AAV of about = 5.2 million per season.

Year 1 (RFA status) - 4.5 million
Year 2 (RFA status) - 4.5 million
Year 3 (UFA status) - 5.5 million
Year 4 (UFA status) - 5.5 million
year 5 (UFA status) - 5.5 million
Year 6 (UFA status) - 5.5 million
Year 7 (UFA status) - 5.5 million

So we would lock Zach Bogosian up through the ages of 23-30. Leaving both sides open for another solid deal, or Zach could sign elsewhere and still be in a position to land a really good last contract as he will be 29 turning 30 when this 7 year deal expires.

Also, by going 7 years, it staggers the contracts of our core. You don't want them all UFA at once, and with the staggering effect it can work nicely as if you're doing well as a team, these guys may want to stay since the others are already here. And we already know how well this core group enjoys being together as we've heard all of Little, Wheeler and Bogosian have been in communication over their negotiations. It can be a positive domino effect when it comes to re-signing these players. Chevy has set this up so Ladd and Byfuglien are UFA in 2016, Pavelec in 2017, Kane, Little and Enstrom in 2018, Wheeler in 2019. So I think Bogosian's contract runs to at least 6 years bringing us to 2019 with Wheeler. I can't see it being a 5 year deal and expiring in 2018 with all of Kane, Little and Enstrom that summer, and it surely won't be a 4 year deal (too short). In summary, 4 years is too short, 5 years clashes with other big UFA's, 6 years fits with Wheeler, 7 years would bring Bogosian the year after Wheeler. 6-7 years would be ideal for both the team and player.