Your team under a $36 million cap

[King_Brown]

Revenue sharing in the NFL is 32% of all gate tickets into a pool divided evenly.

THe NHL should adpot a 40% of all ticket sales are put into a pool divided evenly at the end of the year. Also luxury suites should not be included, and either should other concessions and so on. THis should ease the disparity.

 

[Hatter]

This is what the Kings current roster looks like with the 24% rollback

Aaron Miller $2.7 million
Mattias Norstrom $2.7 million
Craig Conroy $2.4 million
Lubomir Visnovsky $1.5 million
Mathieu Garon $1.2 million
Nathan Dempsey $912,000
Dustin Brown $912,000
Denis Grebeshkov $912,000
Trent Klatt $912,000
Derek Armstrong $760,000
Tim Gleason $646,000
Sean Avery $532,000
Jeff Cowan $532,000

13 Players $16,618,000

And No Deadmarsh, Allison, or possibly (though I would scream! Palffy(we better f'n sign ZIGGY?!?!? And I wouldnt mind getting rid of the most injury prone player on our team, our own china boy Aarron Miller. Damn we have all kinds of space for the rest of the team lol

 

[King_Brown]

I cant belive the players would allow the 24% rollback to be included. Bob Goodenow really screwed them.

 

[HockeyMan9]

And No Deadmarsh, Allison, or possibly (though I would scream! Palffy(we better f'n sign ZIGGY?!?!? And I wouldnt mind getting rid of the most injury prone player on our team, our own china boy Aarron Miller. Damn we have all kinds of space for the rest of the team lol

What's the situation with Straka, is he RFA or UFA?

 

[BurgoShark]

Here's the Sharks after a rollback (if they honour 2004-2005 contracts). IMO honouring these contracts is something the owners may have to do to get the Cap accepted.

Cheechoo $608,000.00
Davison $342,000.00
Dimitrakos $342,000.00
Ekman $912,000.00
Fahey $342,000.00
Hannan $1,938,000.00
Korolyuk $988,000.00
Marleau $1,862,000.00
McCauley $1,007,000.00
McLaren $1,900,000.00
Nabokov $3,363,000.00
Parker $532,000.00
Preissing $380,000.00
Primeau $798,000.00
Rathje $1,672,000.00
Smith $406,600.00
Stuart $1,900,000.00
Sturm $1,520,000.00
Thornton $1,710,000.00
Toskala $646,000.00
Ehrhoff $494,000.00
Michalek $646,000.00
Zelesak $342,000.00
Goc $342,000.00

$24,992,600.00

I'm not sure on the last 3 guys. I know Goc has a standard rookie contract ($450k?) so I've put Zelesak in there for the same and Michalek for a bit higher ($850k).

This gives them something like:

Sturm-Marleau-Korulyuk
Michalek-McCauley-Cheechoo
Ekman-Goc-Demitrakos
Thornton-Smith-Primeau (Parker, Zelesak)

McLaren-Stuart
Hannan-Ehrhoff
Rathje-Preissing (Fahey, Davison)

Nabokov-Toskala

Even if the 2004-2005 contracts aren't honoured the only UFA for SJ is Rathje. There is a thread on the SJ board about re-signing him (yes or no?). All of the Sharks fans on the board want Rathje re-signed long term.

The Sharks come in well under the $29m Cap with their entire team intact. Even with raises for RFAs Stuart, Marleau and Cheechoo among others. I'd say Marleau and Stuart both go to about $2.2m and Cheechoo to about $1.8m. You'd be looking at about $27m.

 

[jamiebez]

No one's done Ottawa yet. Here's who's under contract for 05/06, post-rollback:

Daniel Alfredsson $4.7 million
Zdeno Chara $3.7 million
Wade Redden $3.7 million
Dominik Hasek $2.3 million
Greg de Vries $2.3 million
Bryan Smolinski $2.3 million
Chris Phillips $2 million
Vaclav Varada $1.2 million
Peter Schaefer $988,000
Brian Pothier $532,000
Brandon Bochenski $513,000
Jan Platil $356,000
Chris Kelly $323,000
Total: $24,812,000

Here's what everyone else made last year, followed by what they're likely to get in a new deal
Hossa $2,600,000 - up to $4.5 (just below Alfredsson)
Havlat $1,750,000 - up to $3.5
Fisher $1,021,000 - up to $2.0
White $988,000 - up to $1.5M
Volchenkov $760,000 - up to $1.5M
Prusek $710,000 - up to $1M
Vermette $570,000 - same
Neil $532,000 - same
Spezza $565,000 - up to $2M
Langfeld $360,000 - same

(I'm assuming Bondra and Leschyshyn will walk and Van Allen and Ray will retire).

The total for these guys (with raises) is about $17M, putting Ottawa about $6M over a $36M cap.

The guys that they would most likely let go are White and possibly Prusek (as UFAs) or DeVries and Smolinski (buyouts since they're both overpaid relative to their value) - whatever combination adds up to $6M.

The other option is to let Havlat walk. That saves you a lot of money that could potentially be used to shore up other areas.

In any case, Ottawa will likely lose at least two, probably three players from their core of last year. Not bad, but not great.

Edit: totally forgot Spezza! Naturally, that makes things worse...

 

[SENSible1*]

No one's done Ottawa yet. Here's who's under contract for 05/06, post-rollback:

Daniel Alfredsson $4.7 million
Zdeno Chara $3.7 million
Wade Redden $3.7 million
Dominik Hasek $2.3 million
Greg de Vries $2.3 million
Bryan Smolinski $2.3 million
Chris Phillips $2 million
Vaclav Varada $1.2 million
Peter Schaefer $988,000
Brian Pothier $532,000
Brandon Bochenski $513,000
Jan Platil $356,000
Chris Kelly $323,000
Total: $24,812,000

Here's what everyone else made last year, followed by what they're likely to get in a new deal
Hossa $2,600,000 - up to $4.5 (just below Alfredsson)
Havlat $1,750,000 - up to $3.5
Fisher $1,021,000 - up to $2.0
White $988,000 - up to $1.5M
Volchenkov $760,000 - up to $1.5M
Prusek $710,000 - up to $1M
Vermette $570,000 - same
Neil $532,000 - same
Spezza $565,000 - up to $2M
Langfeld $360,000 - same

(I'm assuming Bondra and Leschyshyn will walk and Van Allen and Ray will retire).

The total for these guys (with raises) is about $17M, putting Ottawa about $6M over a $36M cap.

The guys that they would most likely let go are White and possibly Prusek (as UFAs) or DeVries and Smolinski (buyouts since they're both overpaid relative to their value) - whatever combination adds up to $6M.

The other option is to let Havlat walk. That saves you a lot of money that could potentially be used to shore up other areas.

In any case, Ottawa will likely lose at least two, probably three players from their core of last year. Not bad, but not great.

Edit: totally forgot Spezza! Naturally, that makes things worse...

Why would you assume that White, Fisher, Volchenkov, Prusek etc would get raises while the league is in the process of a massive salary deflation?
They will get their QO's and be glad to sign them. (White should be released outright.)

Hossa, Havlat and Spezza may be able to get a small raise over last years salaries, but the picture isn't nearly as difficult for the Sens in year 1 as you are painting.

I can see them buying out/renegotiating deVries and Smoliski to get some cap room, but I don't see them losing a single core player.

 

[jamiebez]

Why would you assume that White, Fisher, Volchenkov, Prusek etc would get raises while the league is in the process of a massive salary deflation?
They will get their QO's and be glad to sign them. (White should be released outright.)

Hossa, Havlat and Spezza may be able to get a small raise over last years salaries, but the picture isn't nearly as difficult for the Sens in year 1 as you are painting.

I can see them buying out/renegotiating deVries and Smoliski to get some cap room, but I don't see them losing a single core player.

I'm not so sure...

I agree about White and Prusek not getting substantial money (if they get signed at all). I didn't really give them substantial increases in my previous post.

But, as far as Hossa, Havlat, Fisher, Spezza, and Volchenkov - I put in what these guys can expect to get based on their market value, even post-rollback. I'm not assuming anyone will just sign their QOs and be happy to do so - not as long as arbitration is still an option for them. If you look at the comparables for these guys in arbitration, I believe these numbers are pretty accurate. Hossa, for example, doesn't have to look far for a comparable - there's one on his own team (Alfredsson). I may have inflated the numbers a bit, but I wanted to err on the side of caution.

Even if I'm off by like 50%, they will still be looking at losing at least one or two players who were with the team last year. Fortunately, I think the organizational depth puts Ottawa in better shape than most teams, but there will still be some (hopefully insignificant) losses.

 

[SENSible1*]

I'm not so sure...

I agree about White and Prusek not getting substantial money (if they get signed at all). I didn't really give them substantial increases in my previous post.

But, as far as Hossa, Havlat, Fisher, Spezza, and Volchenkov - I put in what these guys can expect to get based on their market value, even post-rollback. I'm not assuming anyone will just sign their QOs and be happy to do so - not as long as arbitration is still an option for them. If you look at the comparables for these guys in arbitration, I believe these numbers are pretty accurate.

The comparables will be based on the 24% rollback so expecting them to make more than last year is questionable in all but the exceptional cases.

Hossa, for example, doesn't have to look far for a comparable - there's one on his own team (Alfredsson).

Alfie, as a UFA, is NOT a comparable. Hossa will have some good comparables, but Alfie is not one of them.

I may have inflated the numbers a bit, but I wanted to err on the side of caution.

Even if I'm off by like 50%, they will still be looking at losing at least one or two players who were with the team last year. Fortunately, I think the organizational depth puts Ottawa in better shape than most teams, but there will still be some (hopefully insignificant) losses.

I'm probably missing on the low side, but I think you are more than 50% off.

Still I agree that the Sens will likely need to drop some non-essential players and replace them with some farmhands/drafted players.

 

[BLONG7]

Revenue sharing in the NFL is 32% of all gate tickets into a pool divided evenly.

THe NHL should adpot a 40% of all ticket sales are put into a pool divided evenly at the end of the year. Also luxury suites should not be included, and either should other concessions and so on. THis should ease the disparity.

I thought the NFL had a 60-40 split on the gate, and that was their whole revenue sharing thing?

 

[nikolai19]

Need to resign Frolov, Cammalleri, and Lehoux, I believe...Other than that Kings have a lot of room to work with.

Burgess, San Jose looks good for a long time. They are going to continually win the Pacific with the Kings close behind them for at least the next 5 years.

 

[HockeyCritter]

I cant belive the players would allow the 24% rollback to be included. Bob Goodenow really screwed them.

I would think the 24% rollback means less guys being cut lose which means the market isn’t saturated.

 

[Egil]

I disagree with Ottawa, here is my take:

Daniel Alfredsson $4.7 million
Zdeno Chara $3.7 million
Wade Redden $3.7 million
Dominik Hasek $2.3 million *
Greg de Vries $2.3 million
Bryan Smolinski $2.3 million
Chris Phillips $2 million
Vaclav Varada $1.2 million
Peter Schaefer $988,000
Brian Pothier $532,000
Brandon Bochenski $513,000
Jan Platil $356,000
Chris Kelly $323,000
Total: $24,812,000

*The Hasek number is wrong, he will only make $1.5 mil next year, so that brings us down to $24.062 Mil. I assume the numbers you use below are after rollback:

Now, for next year:
Hossa $2,600,000 - up to $3.7 (Redden and Chara)
Havlat $1,750,000 - QO - $1.75 Mil
Fisher $1,021,000 - QO - $1.021 Mil
White $988,000 - QO - $1 Mil
Volchenkov $760,000 - QO - $836k
Prusek $710,000 - QO - $781k
Vermette $570,000 - QO - $627k
Neil $532,000 - QO - $585k
Spezza $565,000 - no more than $1.5 mil
Langfeld $360,000 - QO - $396k

Now, that puts us at: 12.196 Mil for these guys, leaving us at $36 Million. By defering even a tiny fraction of Hossa's money to next year (when DeVries and Smolinski's contracts will go down), we shouldn't have a problem. Thats 23 players at a total payroll of $36.258 million. So if we work Hossa's deal to move more money to next season (so say he make $3 mil this year), were all set.

 

[jamiebez]

The comparables will be based on the 24% rollback so expecting them to make more than last year is questionable in all but the exceptional cases.

Alfie, as a UFA, is NOT a comparable. Hossa will have some good comparables, but Alfie is not one of them.

Good point on Alfie, but Hossa was Top 10 in scoring last year, and this is going to be his third contract. He will get a significant raise if he goes to arbitration - even when compared to rolled back, RFA contracts. Same for Havlat - his comparables are probably going to be Richards and Gaborik (those were who he used when negotiating his last deal with Muckler).

Still I agree that the Sens will likely need to drop some non-essential players and replace them with some farmhands/drafted players.

On that we can agree!

Really, that's all I'm saying anyway - White and Smolinski are gone (for instance), DeVries takes a pay cut and Meszaros, Eaves, Kaigordorov, Bochenski, whoever are in the lineup next year.

 

[jamiebez]

I disagree with Ottawa, here is my take:

<snip>

*The Hasek number is wrong, he will only make $1.5 mil next year, so that brings us down to $24.062 Mil. I assume the numbers you use below are after rollback:

Now, for next year:
Hossa $2,600,000 - up to $3.7 (Redden and Chara)
Havlat $1,750,000 - QO - $1.75 Mil
Fisher $1,021,000 - QO - $1.021 Mil
White $988,000 - QO - $1 Mil
Volchenkov $760,000 - QO - $836k
Prusek $710,000 - QO - $781k
Vermette $570,000 - QO - $627k
Neil $532,000 - QO - $585k
Spezza $565,000 - no more than $1.5 mil
Langfeld $360,000 - QO - $396k

Now, that puts us at: 12.196 Mil for these guys, leaving us at $36 Million. By defering even a tiny fraction of Hossa's money to next year (when DeVries and Smolinski's contracts will go down), we shouldn't have a problem. Thats 23 players at a total payroll of $36.258 million. So if we work Hossa's deal to move more money to next season (so say he make $3 mil this year), were all set.

My bad on Hasek - I got the numbers from TSN's page (which they've since taken down. Hmmmmm... ). And, yes, all the numbers were post-rollback. I just noticed Simpson isn't on there either, so we only have 6 defencemen....

I guess my numbers were on the high side, but as far as Hossa and Havlat go, I don't think we should underestimate the raises they'll get in arbitration, even post-rollback. Gaborik (a good comparable to Havlat, IMO) will make $2.2M, post-rollback, for example.

edit: Spezza isn't eligible for arbitration.

 

[Egil]

Havlat signed a 1 year deal before the lockout, which of course never paid him a cent. But he isn't going to command more than he did before, hence the QO. I doubt he will be elegible for Arbitration, as he has only played 4 NHL seasons.

Hossa will make quite a bit, but 5 mil pre rollback would have been about right, and that only puts him at about $3.7 mil, so that is all good.

Spezza is coming off his entry deal were he only played 1 full season in the NHL. He won't be getting a monster raise, that is for sure.

 

[jamiebez]

Havlat signed a 1 year deal before the lockout, which of course never paid him a cent. But he isn't going to command more than he did before, hence the QO. I doubt he will be elegible for Arbitration, as he has only played 4 NHL seasons.

He is barely eligible, if they count last year - which I guess is something else they need to sort out in the new CBA. That would give him exactly the five years he needs. If not, then you are right - I guess he gets his QO and likes it. I've also edited my previous post since I forgot Spezza isn't near eligible yet.

I'm grateful for the discussion with you and Thunderstruck. I'll sleep better tonight

 

[Egil]

If he needs 5 years, last year wasn't a year, so my guess is we are good. But you are right, he could become elegible for arbitration, which would allow him to make more money.

 

[kdb209]

Originally Posted by King_Brown
Revenue sharing in the NFL is 32% of all gate tickets into a pool divided evenly.

THe NHL should adpot a 40% of all ticket sales are put into a pool divided evenly at the end of the year. Also luxury suites should not be included, and either should other concessions and so on. THis should ease the disparity.

I thought the NFL had a 60-40 split on the gate, and that was their whole revenue sharing thing?

That and the minor detail of a $2.2B TV deal (Going up to $3B+ in 2006) split equally among the teams.

 

[me2]

If he needs 5 years, last year wasn't a year, so my guess is we are good. But you are right, he could become elegible for arbitration, which would allow him to make more money.

I like your numbers, I don't think they are far off. Players are not going to get big raises this year, its just going to be too chaotic with too many UFAs and too few buyers. RFAs won't have enough leverage to force teams to spend. Just buy out Devries if you have to and that'll save a bunch, especially if you factor in Devries could cost $4.6m in real money ($2.3m salary/cap + $2.3m in taxes).