Would you trade a Selke Winner for a Non-Generational 1st OA?

djpatm

Registered User
Feb 2, 2010
2,525
929
Calgary
This came up as a hypothetical situation in the Flames forum that I thought was interesting.

Essentially, the question was would you trade a Selke winner in the middle of their prime (late 20's) for 1st overall in a draft year where there isn't a generational/elite talent available?

For sake of discussion, I'd label the last 5 1st OA like so:

1. Mackinnon (Not elite)
2. Ekblad (Not elite)
3. McDavid (Generational/Elite)
4. Matthews (Generational/Elite)
5. Hischier (Not elite)

So like last year, would you trade a selke calibre player for 1st overall?
 
Last edited:

BruinLVGA

CZ Shadow 2 Compact coming my way!
Dec 15, 2013
15,187
7,325
Switzerland
This came up as a hypothetical situation in the Flames forum that I thought was interesting.

Essentially, the question was would you trade a Selke winner for 1st overall in a draft year where there isn't a generational/elite talent available?

For sake of discussion, I'd label the last 5 1st OA like so:

1. Mackinnon (Not elite)
2. Ekblad (Not elite)
3. McDavid (Generational/Elite)
4. Matthews (Generational/Elite)
5. Hirscher (Not elite)

So like last year, would you trade a selke calibre player for 1st overall?

Who's Hirscher?
 

Laineux

Registered User
Aug 1, 2011
5,267
2,826
No.

Let's look at 1st overalls since Crosby. If you include Matthews in the group that doesn't count, we should probably also include Tavares, Stamkos and Kane.

The players we are left with are Johnson, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Jakupov, MacKinnon, Ekblad and Hischier. I wouldn't trade a selke winner for any of those players.
 

Ducks in a row

Go Ducks Quack Quack
Dec 17, 2013
18,004
4,356
U.S.A.
I would rather have Matthews (who isn't generational) then Kesler so I would trade Kesler for Matthews I could. I would only take that non-generation 1st overall over Kesler if I know what specific player it is rather then just gambling because I wouldn't want to risk getting a Yakupov.
 

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,078
14,588
Depends on the player? I voted yes. But it really depends on the specific player
 

Voodoo Child

Registered User
Jun 16, 2009
6,317
2,408
Whoa whoa whoa...

You label Matthews the same way you labelled McDavid?!

You're gonna get it now.

Anyways the answer to this question is yes. A Selke winner is a Selke winner but looking back 20 years (to 1996) you have 10 franchise players (Thornton, Lecavalier, Kovalchuk, Ovie, Sid, Kane, Stamkos, Tavares, McDavid and Matthews) as well as MacKinnon and Ekblad (too early) and Nash, also MAF...

50% shot at a superstar, 70% at a difference maker mang...
 

Aceboogie

Registered User
Aug 25, 2012
32,649
3,896
No way. If you are late 20s and winning a selke you are probably make ~8 million per year. A non gen 1st overall is cost controlled for 3 years and even 5 years if you play it safe. Just from that value alone id do it
 

ESH

Registered User
Jun 19, 2011
5,294
3,394
Would I trade Jere Lehtinen for a first overall pick? Yeah probably
 

93LEAFS

Registered User
Nov 7, 2009
33,841
20,900
Toronto
For a Matthews, Tavares, Stamkos or Eichel level center prospect, I would absolutely consider it, and I wouldn't label those guys generational. You also have to factor in age. Would I trade the guaranteed return of Kopitar and Bergeron if I got them at say 22? I'd have serious qualms. Now, if we are talking of a 29 or so guy leaving his prime (like most guys who win the Selke) for a 18-year-old Eichel or Matthews, I probably would if my team wasn't a cup contender.

Now, I wouldn't trade him for guys from the EJ, Hall, Kane, Yakupov, and RNH tier. I would have ended up seriously regretting it on Kane, but the others it looks like your decision is comfortable. Mackinnon is the most debatable one, as he's between those two groups in my eyes. He was expected to be better than he was, and if you swapped him with Barkov in this question, many would seriously consider it due to Barkov likely being a future Selke candidate if he can stay healthy, and younger than most established Selke winners.
 

93LEAFS

Registered User
Nov 7, 2009
33,841
20,900
Toronto
no you cant.

theres nothing generational about 0.84 ppg
You can cherry pick arguments both ways. I don't think he is, but what about finishing 2nd in goals as a D+1 rookie and being the best player on a playoff team as a D+1 rookie (Can't remember the last time this has happened)? Many would think that is generational.
 

The Nuge

Some say…
Jan 26, 2011
27,330
7,241
British Columbia
Would I trade a 26 year old Kesler, coming off a 41 goal campaign, or a 26 year old Bergeron, coming off a 64 point campaign, for Nico Hischier? Hell no. A prime aged Selke winner is usually a 60+ point #1 center. Why trade the guarantee for someone who MIGHT be as good?
 

CokenoPepsi

Registered User
Oct 28, 2016
4,746
2,221
Gretzky, Hull, Orr, Howe, Lemieux, Crosby, Ovechkin.

Those are the generational guys... don't think I'm putting Matthews with them
 

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