Would the Leafs be doing better right now if Babcock wasn’t the coach?

LeafFever

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No they just don't have a good defensive core at all. Haven't even been mildly impressed with Gardiner or Dermott.
I guess you only mean the playoffs. Dermott has been terrific and exceeded all expectations.
 

Daximus

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I guess you only mean the playoffs. Dermott has been terrific and exceeded all expectations.

Yeah I'm talking specifically in this series. I've watched every game so far and while they show some good flashes they make some really questionable choices that lead to goals. The Leafs are going to need some upgrades on their dcore if they want to go deep IMO.
 

LeafFever

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Yeah I'm talking specifically in this series. I've watched every game so far and while they show some good flashes they make some really questionable choices that lead to goals. The Leafs are going to need some upgrades on their dcore if they want to go deep IMO.
They need another 20+ minutes muncher. Hainsy needs less minutes. A big decision on Gardiner needs to be made. They should move him this summer if they don't want to pay him big bucks.
 

LeafFever

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BTW, i ranted about this on the Leafs board. Anyone tired of the big melodramatic turn on coaches/players when things go wrong? Did people really expect more out of this team?
Calm down and let the players develop.
 

Daximus

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BTW, i ranted about this on the Leafs board. Anyone tired of the big melodramatic turn on coaches/players when things go wrong? Did people really expect more out of this team?
Calm down and let the players develop.

After last years playoffs and the way Leafs fans said they could handle Boston I think Leafs fans expected more.
 

Sidney the Kidney

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but it's Babcock's decision to play Hainsey, Polak, and Zaitsev where he does. His transition schemes are also on him

What are his alternatives? The Leafs only have two good defensemen (Rielly and Gardiner), plus a promising rookie (Dermott). And Gardiner's also known for his weird blunders.

It's not like he's got all-star defenders available to him but decides he'd rather play Polak, Hainsey, and Zaitsev instead.
 

CantLoseWithMatthews

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What are his alternatives? The Leafs only have two good defensemen (Rielly and Gardiner), plus a promising rookie (Dermott). And Gardiner's also known for his weird blunders.

It's not like he's got all-star defenders available to him but decides he'd rather play Polak, Hainsey, and Zaitsev instead.
Well, Carrick is better than Polak so that switch is pretty obvious and easy to me. he also has great chemistry with Gardiner. Hainsey obviously got overused by Babcock and would be better off getting demoted. Overall, if Babcock really wanted he could easily have come up with a defensive scheme like Dallas did. He didn't want to go that route though
 

Sidney the Kidney

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Well, Carrick is better than Polak so that switch is pretty obvious and easy to me. he also has great chemistry with Gardiner. Hainsey obviously got overused by Babcock and would be better off getting demoted. Overall, if Babcock really wanted he could easily have come up with a defensive scheme like Dallas did. He didn't want to go that route though

But the ice time has to come from someone. If Hainsey's minutes are reduced (at RD), then who eats more minutes? Zaitsev is also struggling, and regardless of how much of an upgrade Carrick is over Polak, you don't want either guy getting 20+ minutes. I think that's the problem. Babcock's got very little available to him to change the fortunes of this defense.

As for changing the defensive scheme, again, he's probably limited by what he has available. I don't know if there's a scheme that can cover for some of the mental errors the Leaf defenders are making. I think at that point, it comes down to players executing.
 

CantLoseWithMatthews

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But the ice time has to come from someone. If Hainsey's minutes are reduced (at RD), then who eats more minutes? Zaitsev is also struggling, and regardless of how much of an upgrade Carrick is over Polak, you don't want either guy getting 20+ minutes. I think that's the problem. Babcock's got very little available to him to change the fortunes of this defense.

As for changing the defensive scheme, again, he's probably limited by what he has available. I don't know if there's a scheme that can cover for some of the mental errors the Leaf defenders are making. I think at that point, it comes down to players executing.
the whole thing it comes down to, imo, is finding a balance. Dallas is a good example of a team over-correcting their defensive issues and failing to improve as a team, and they missed the playoffs. Babcock wants his defense to be quick in transition and engaged offensively, and sometimes that leads to them getting burned. it happens. he's just willing to get burned that one time out of 10 for a successful play the other 9 times, or whatever.

I agree though, the personnel should be better and I hope it improves.
 

Hunter368

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Andersen has been awful though, no question. .880 vs .926 (Rask) is absolutely glaring, especially when the microstats through 4 games show it's been very close (we actually had far better posession, scoring chances, and superior expected goals in game 2- I know it's not a solace at all but 4 goals in 5 shots, with at least 3-4 of the goals being questionable gives you no chance from the get-go). Eye-test for me matches as well. Leafs outplayed the Bruins over the course of last night, you just get zero margin of error when the goaltending matchup is that one-sided.....I think the D is passable->good against lesser teams but it doesn't stand a chance against the top teams in the league- and the Bruins are that (called them as the best team entering the playoffs, few times over, even before the matchups were set).

I think the team has gotten exposed in some ways because Boston has an elite-top end, are an elite-team, and don't have many weaknesses at all. The Leafs have the team to compete with that, but they have minor holes, top to bottom.

As for the D culprits who have been underwhelming, I think you nailed them Hunter. Though I think Z has been solid in the playoffs, just made 1 bad read on an odd-man rush. Hainsey as your top-pairing D is not good enough though.....only looks passable out there because of Rielly. With Gardiner, I think he's fine.....he's a risk-reward player, you just need to shelter him with better stability and Z isn't that yet (still think it has potential). This team desperately needs a higher-end #1/#2 that provides stability and someone like Polak, but better, who plays the shooting/passing lanes better. Gardiner is a guy you can perpetually look to upgrade on, but I don't think he's nearly the fundamental problem some fans suggest.

Dermott has been fine->good, should be a staple in the lineup for a while. Gardiner is what he is, he's good enough to be worked around. The issue is we don't have the proper pieces to shelter them, particularly on the right side. You have the right idea about what the problem is- relative to being a cup contender, but picked the wrong culprits, IMO.

I agree with most of your post, but my main point was I’ve seen too many Leaf posters totally throwing Andersen under the bus like he’s been the only issue. Don’t get me wrong, Andersen hasn’t been great.....but not a single player (arguably) on the team can say they’ve performed significantly better then Andersen has (one exception is Marner).

I stated last summer to Leaf fans they need to limit their expectations on Hainsey he isn’t as good as some have stated.....he has a very limited skill set. He’s good at a select number of things and bad at others so don’t expect much overall....he’s being played too long above his level and it shows.

I don’t have any big issues with Rielly or Gardiner, they haven’t been perfect or game breakers but few dman are....they’ve been good enough.

Polak is bad....not much to say there. Carrick is better at some things and worse at others.....guessing Babs is using what he views as the least of two evils.

Z is good at puck moving and offence but not very physical and not as good as you need in the defensive zone. Z is a fine top 4 D IF pairing up with a another D where they can complement each other’s strengths and cover up each other’s weaknesses.

Dermott isn’t flashy or sexy D man.....he’s exactly what you need more of. A guy who does everything ok to good....isn’t a superstar but also doesn’t appear to have big brain farts either. This is only my opinion viewing him in smaller samples and I might be wrong but I like him. He’s “steady” and I love that in Dman.

Forwards need to be more responsible defensively imo and help out their D. AM line is good in this way. Kadri line is ok at it.....Bozak line is not good. Your 4th line needs to be better but it’s not bad as long as they play the skilled guys over Martin. You need to dump the dead wood in Martin, Leo, Bozak, Moore.....play guys who are good at something while not hurting you defensively.

Leafs have a very good core of forwards, D and goalie. Plus you have some nice support guys like Brown and Hyman. But you need to turn over and dump about 4-5 players imo and add a different style of player on D to compliment Rielly and Z strengths. Not sure if I would say so much as a 1D is required bc they cost so much but you do need a different style of guy with Rielly (top pairing) and Z (2nd pairing). Gardiner and Z have too many of the same weaknesses imo to be a good pairing. Rielly needs a good partner to take on other teams top lines and log big mins.

My hot take....but it is a thought out hot take. Haha

Sorry for long reply and any rambling, I wrote it over a few hours at work when I had time on my cell
 

Mad Dog Tannen

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LOL if Babcock get's fired almost every team would be lining up to hire.

We've been without Kadri and Nylander all series. Anderssen hasn't even been average.

No different than Carlyle and Maurice....both were run out of town erroneously, both found homes relatively quickly and rebounded without permanent damage from Toronto, despite best efforts of the fan base.
 
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Mickey Marner

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I don't care for how he preaches defensive play while employing a stretch-pass breakout system, but he hasn't done anything to justify terminating 5 more years of service.
 

firstemperor

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I agree with most of your post, but my main point was I’ve seen too many Leaf posters totally throwing Andersen under the bus like he’s been the only issue. Don’t get me wrong, Andersen hasn’t been great.....but not a single player (arguably) on the team can say they’ve performed significantly better then Andersen has (one exception is Marner).

I stated last summer to Leaf fans they need to limit their expectations on Hainsey he isn’t as good as some have stated.....he has a very limited skill set. He’s good at a select number of things and bad at others so don’t expect much overall....he’s being played too long above his level and it shows.

I don’t have any big issues with Rielly or Gardiner, they haven’t been perfect or game breakers but few dman are....they’ve been good enough.

Polak is bad....not much to say there. Carrick is better at some things and worse at others.....guessing Babs is using what he views as the least of two evils.

Z is good at puck moving and offence but not very physical and not as good as you need in the defensive zone. Z is a fine top 4 D IF pairing up with a another D where they can complement each other’s strengths and cover up each other’s weaknesses.

Dermott isn’t flashy or sexy D man.....he’s exactly what you need more of. A guy who does everything ok to good....isn’t a superstar but also doesn’t appear to have big brain farts either. This is only my opinion viewing him in smaller samples and I might be wrong but I like him. He’s “steady” and I love that in Dman.

Forwards need to be more responsible defensively imo and help out their D. AM line is good in this way. Kadri line is ok at it.....Bozak line is not good. Your 4th line needs to be better but it’s not bad as long as they play the skilled guys over Martin. You need to dump the dead wood in Martin, Leo, Bozak, Moore.....play guys who are good at something while not hurting you defensively.

Leafs have a very good core of forwards, D and goalie. Plus you have some nice support guys like Brown and Hyman. But you need to turn over and dump about 4-5 players imo and add a different style of player on D to compliment Rielly and Z strengths. Not sure if I would say so much as a 1D is required bc they cost so much but you do need a different style of guy with Rielly (top pairing) and Z (2nd pairing). Gardiner and Z have too many of the same weaknesses imo to be a good pairing. Rielly needs a good partner to take on other teams top lines and log big mins.

My hot take....but it is a thought out hot take. Haha

Sorry for long reply and any rambling, I wrote it over a few hours at work when I had time on my cell

Appreciate the analysis Hunter, your a good poster and reasonably objective guy from the neutral perspective.

Good analysis on Hainsey, I'm not sure why the vocal Leaf fans made you think he was a top-pairing caliber defensive partner but a number of us on the Leafs board have noted he's been in poor form for a while now. He's not top-pairing caliber on any team wanting to challenge for the cup and my take is, his adequacy there has as much to do with Rielly's leap forward more than anything. Yes, he won a cup last year with the Pens, but they have two generational/near-generational ~top 5 players in any given year, up the middle in Malkin/Crosby. The only point I disagree on about the D is that Rielly has been lights out for most of the year....Gardiner is a sheltered #3 higher-end PMD at best.....I think Rielly played like a mid->low tier #1 this year....he was the best player in game 3 on the Leafs end and should have got 1st star IMO.

Z had a bipolar past 2 years. People forget it's his sophomore year, older player or not. Great underlying stats and productivity last year, poorer form this year....but also had some circumstantial issues (broken foot, pregnant wife/baby, sophmore year, taken off the PP and had to anchor the PK- same wheelhouse Rielly went through in years past under Babs). I think he has potential, or it could go south (like Brodie) but the problems are exacerbated- like you said, because Gardiner and Zaitsev have overlapping weaknesses.

Last point- I was very pro Anderson, even when he was a Duck- and was very pro-Leafs acquiring him. But he just hasn't been good enough in the playoffs, he hasn't made the saves Rask has or the series is either a lot closer, or 2-2. He was a good #1 over the regular season but you need goaltending to win in the playoffs, and most teams that win cups will peak with goalies that routinely steal games (see Quick, Thomas, Fleury/Murray recently). I said this on the Leafs board.......I think if Andersen just plays "adequately" like an Osgoode, Crawford...this team will have some severe trouble ever winning, if the expectation is a cup......those teams were the closest things to dynasties in the modern era. That's the uncertainty about goaltending IMO....you need them to peak when it matters and it's hard to project goalies in big game situations....some rise, and some falter. Honestly, he's been our worst player by a fair margin, given the importance of his role. I'm still optimistic about him moving forward (and because the series isn't over yet) because I don't think his play this season defines his career moving forward...but he has been in pretty poor form.
 
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Nothingbutglass

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I agree with most of your post, but my main point was I’ve seen too many Leaf posters totally throwing Andersen under the bus like he’s been the only issue. Don’t get me wrong, Andersen hasn’t been great.....but not a single player (arguably) on the team can say they’ve performed significantly better then Andersen has (one exception is Marner).

I stated last summer to Leaf fans they need to limit their expectations on Hainsey he isn’t as good as some have stated.....he has a very limited skill set. He’s good at a select number of things and bad at others so don’t expect much overall....he’s being played too long above his level and it shows.

I don’t have any big issues with Rielly or Gardiner, they haven’t been perfect or game breakers but few dman are....they’ve been good enough.

Polak is bad....not much to say there. Carrick is better at some things and worse at others.....guessing Babs is using what he views as the least of two evils.

Z is good at puck moving and offence but not very physical and not as good as you need in the defensive zone. Z is a fine top 4 D IF pairing up with a another D where they can complement each other’s strengths and cover up each other’s weaknesses.

Dermott isn’t flashy or sexy D man.....he’s exactly what you need more of. A guy who does everything ok to good....isn’t a superstar but also doesn’t appear to have big brain farts either. This is only my opinion viewing him in smaller samples and I might be wrong but I like him. He’s “steady” and I love that in Dman.

Forwards need to be more responsible defensively imo and help out their D. AM line is good in this way. Kadri line is ok at it.....Bozak line is not good. Your 4th line needs to be better but it’s not bad as long as they play the skilled guys over Martin. You need to dump the dead wood in Martin, Leo, Bozak, Moore.....play guys who are good at something while not hurting you defensively.

Leafs have a very good core of forwards, D and goalie. Plus you have some nice support guys like Brown and Hyman. But you need to turn over and dump about 4-5 players imo and add a different style of player on D to compliment Rielly and Z strengths. Not sure if I would say so much as a 1D is required bc they cost so much but you do need a different style of guy with Rielly (top pairing) and Z (2nd pairing). Gardiner and Z have too many of the same weaknesses imo to be a good pairing. Rielly needs a good partner to take on other teams top lines and log big mins.

My hot take....but it is a thought out hot take. Haha

Sorry for long reply and any rambling, I wrote it over a few hours at work when I had time on my cell
I agree with this. I think the D can be fixed in the off-season though. They have good pieces just bad mix. Get a Hainsey+ type to play with Reilly, get a Dermott partner, and then buy a defensively solid, mobile 3rd pair with the JVR free agent money. Not sure what happened with Zaitsev and if hes part of the future. I dont know why people keep posting about year 2 of 4 year rebuild plan, you can win next year or two if you draft and spend well. Bruins have like six rookies on the team. They've gotten lots of mileage out of drafting college players who are older when they get them but can plug in faster. I would dump Gardiner. He's a good player but he's not young anymore and still makes game losing plays consistently.
 
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Martin Skoula

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No different than Carlyle and Maurice....both were run out of town erroneously, both found homes relatively quickly and rebounded without permanent damage from Toronto, despite best efforts of the fan base.

Yeah Anaheim fans sure love Carlyle. How long did it take Maurice to have a season that mattered after Toronto?
 

MadLuke

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Wonder how much head coach can have an significant impact on a team performance at that level (has long has they have control of the team), I would imagine that in part because normally you do not have one bad coach working:
2013-14Detroit Red WingsNHLAtlantic823928069930.56722223072522150Mike BabcockLost in round 1
2014-15Detroit Red WingsNHLAtlantic82432504101000.610235221020027Mike BabcockLost in round 1
2015-16Detroit Red WingsNHLAtlantic824130065930.567211224020027Jeff BlashillLost in round 1
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Wings post Babcock did almost exactly the same has 2013-2014 wings for an example.

It is not obvious that changing coach can impact performance of a team:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2012.00929.x
We find that for particularly poorly performing teams, coach replacements have little effect on team performance as measured against comparable teams that did not replace their coach. However, for teams with middling records—that is, teams where entry conditions for a new coach appear to be more favorable—replacing the head coach appears to result in worse performance over subsequent years than comparable teams who retained their coach.

http://daveberri.weebly.com/uploads/6/1/3/8/61387427/2009berrileedsleedsmondelloijsf.pdf
Our most surprising finding was that most of the coaches in our data set did not have a statistically significant impact on player performance relative to a generic coach. Even the most successful coaches by our metric—Jackson, Popovich, and Fitzsimmons— were statistically discernable only from the very worst-rated coaches. We therefore find little evidence that most coaches in the NBA are more than the “principal clerks” that Adam Smith claimed managers were more than 200 years ago.


A bit like the difficulty to find a relationship with win's and faceoff win %, we would see one if there was a terrible team at faceoff playing against really good one, but there is usually none.

Being an Habs fans make that not surprising, in recent year's they had a great season under coach like Guy Carbonneau/Michel Terrien and a terrible record under a Claude Julien.

Safe guess is that they would be quite similar with any NHL level coach, they are filled with talents but a little green to face a team that had quite the dominating run that Boston had.
 
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BigGulpsEh

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Feb 20, 2017
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After last years playoffs and the way Leafs fans said they could handle Boston I think Leafs fans expected more.

Ya some leaf fans did expect more. Most I know were realistic about leafs chances against bruins. I expected abetter out of certain players but bruins Have proven to the superior team
 

hector morrison

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Apr 1, 2018
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He is a very good coach. Cannot practice what he preaches in regard to players trying to make the team,probably because of existing contracts,waiver issues ,etc. However,despite the regular season success,I don't like his line-up strategy ,with a 'grinder' on top offensive lines. But I have stated my preferences before.
 

Mackiaveli

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I’d like to get other fans’ opinions on him.


The problem is there is no system in Toronto. That’s on Babcock.

I'm confused, why ask a question just to argue with everyone's responses if you have already come to your own conclusion?

To answer the "question":

No. Babcock is far from the problem in Toronto. Their defense is abysmal, their young guns have struggled immensely, and Matthews/Nylander with the last change couldn't even take advantage of the god awful bottom 6 that Boston was icing considering Nash had to be bumped up in place of Bergeron.

No Kadri hurts, but that's what happens when you act like a schmuck in the playoffs.

Matthews - 1 point
Nylander - 1 point
JVR - 2 Goals
Plekanec -2 points
Bozak -2 points

You don't win when:

1/6 - Suspended
4/6 - Less than 2 points in 4 games

The only player on the top 6 deserving of a better look is Marner, kid is carrying the rest of the offensive load.

Babcock is one of the best coaches in the modern NHL. He has a god awful defensive core to work with; arguably the worst defensive core he has EVER worked with. Toronto was doomed to start with; the two teams they were destined to play against just outmatch them. Boston is bigger, has way more depth, and has a solid defensive core. Tampa is just as fast, with infinitely better defense, and a lot deeper offensively.

Toronto only won this series if Freddie played out of his mind, which was evident in their Game 3 victory. Toronto is a few pieces away from being an actual contender, and while everyone seems to think it will be Liljegren that saves their defensive corps; it just won't happen.

Babcock was also the coach when the team was in last place.

Weird, almost as if the argument that Babcock isn't the problem stands up even better when you consider that when he had a dogshit roster, they had dogshit results, and with a good roster they produce good results.

The Leafs need a true #1 D-Man that is right-handed. They also need to stop giving away draft picks, because when Marner and Matthews are up for this big extensions, you can't be having an expensive bottom 6.

The RHD that we can assume would be available, and could fill that role in Toronto:

Erik Karlsson: Leafs wont like the price, and Sens would surely make them overpay to move E.K to a rival.
Doughty: You MAY be able to get him in free agency, but you're looking at 11m + a year, good luck fitting that in with Matthews/Nylander/Marner. Kings wouldn't move him early without Nylander++
Weber: Leafs fans will say that "they would never take that contract" (as if it is actually THAT bad) but I imagine if Weber gets moved, its to Toronto or Edmonton ultimately.
Carlson: He will be a free-agent this season, so the Leafs definitely need to be throwing all the money at him and hoping it sticks.
Faulk: Definitely doesn't fill the bill perfectly, but he is the cheapest option of those above. You could likely get him without giving up one of the kids or Lilly
 
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LeafFever

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No different than Carlyle and Maurice....both were run out of town erroneously, both found homes relatively quickly and rebounded without permanent damage from Toronto, despite best efforts of the fan base.
I dunno. It took Maurice awhile to have any succes. Ducks fans want Carlyle gone.
 

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