Speculation: Would Signing John tavares be a mistake?

HisNoodliness

The Karate Kid and ASP Kai
Jun 29, 2014
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Toronto
Unfortunately I think we're still looking at a rebuild even with Tavares... And he's certainly not of the ideal age for a rebuilding team as he'll probably be less effective by the time we have a good team. However, John Tavares is a phenomenal hockey player and we should sign him if we can; we'll have to make the cap work, but he's an elite player so you take them when you can. We're not competitive next year regardless but signing him solidifies C for us for years, Tavares-Larkin is a pretty good top 2 centers.
 

HIFE

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May 10, 2011
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Detroit, MI
I'm not sure why he would come here. That said, he's too old to dedicate 10 years at 7-10 mil. I know, he's only 27, but that's a lot of NHL miles. Now Barzal on the other hand...

I support a more aggressive rebuild but we've got to maintain some semblance of quality. If it means dumping Helm, Ericsson, ETC. to make room it could be a positive thing to run with more ELC's and a superstar.

With Tavares the timing is just off from where the Wings are at and my guess is he regresses quicker than people want to believe.
 

TheMule93

On a mule rides the swindler
May 26, 2015
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unless we added another elite piece along with him, i dont see what this would accomplish. We'd just finish in the middle of the pack every year instead of the bottom 5-10
 

Run the Jewels

Make Detroit Great Again
Jun 22, 2006
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If we didn't have so many shitty contracts it would be a no brainier. We'd probably have to sweeten the pot to trade a couple awful contracts in order to fit Tavarez under the cap which would be counter productive. We're just starting to get good draft picks and to stockpile draft picks by trading guys who have actual value. This is a big part of the reason I hated the trade of Pav's contact to Phoenix. It cost the Wings valuable draft position. They needed to move the contract in case Stamkos agreed to meet with them. It wouldn't have been an issue if they didn't have so many awful contracts.

So yes, in a vacuum you sign Tavares. Given our current situation you're probably going to have to do another crappy Datsyuk like deal to clear the cap space. In theory it sounds like a winner, I just think the end result is no Tavares and the "braintrust" uses the open cap space by overpaying a mediocre player and giving him a NTC as well.
 

Redder Winger

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May 4, 2017
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He is a bonafide star... But if he agreed to sign in Detroit, would it be a mistake?

Do we even have enough good players to compete with Jt on our team?

It depends.
If you land Dahlin and Rasmussen is read, maybe signing Tavares is something that makes sense.

But if we draft some kid who's 2 years away and there's no real guarantee... what does Tavares really do for you?

Say he costs close to $12M.
Over the last 5 years, he's 7th in 5 on 5 points.
He's 21st in P/60
He's 13th in primary points/60

He's 38th in 5 on 5 points this year.
58th in points/60
40th in primary points.

Here's the way his points/60 is tracking
12-13 2.09
13-14 2.33
14-15 2.15
15-16 2.23
16-17 1.84
17-18 2.11

He's bounced back this year, but he's still a bit short of where he was.
His primary points are similar.
12-13 2.01
13-14 1.94
14-15 1.87
15-16 2.08
16-17 1.28
17-18 1.80

His primary points didn't rebound as well.

If CF% matters, his 48.66 is the lowest in the last six years, by quite a ways.

His takeaways/60 are way down this year.

So... $12-13M?
Man, that's a big deal.
He's probably worth it, because he instantly shores up your top 9.
Down the middle, you're running a great group.
Tavares
Larkin
Nielsen
Glendening

Realistically, you've got to move Helm or Nielsen -- if that's possible.

On capfriendly, I signed Tavares to 13Mx7y
Franzen to LTIR

Now we have 14M to complete the roster, assuming an $81M cap.

Here are the RFAs to sign
Larkin
Bertuzzi
Frk
Athanasiou
Mantha

Let's play it short with AA and Mantha.
AA gets 2 years x $2.6M
Mantha gets 2x3.8M
Frk, gets $900000
Bert gets $900000
You've got $6M left for Larkin.

So here's your team
Abdelakder Tavares Mantha
Bertuzzi Larkin Athanasiou
Frk Zetterberg Nyquist
Svech Nielsen Helm
Glendening

Dekeyser Jensen
Ericsson Daley
XO Kronwall
Wikowski

Howard.

Lose Green with no replacement.
No backup goalie.
Only 13 forwards.
And you've only got $60,000.

So realistically, no. You can't afford to bid for Tavares.

IF there was some way to clear out Kronwall (with no penalty), if Z retired (with no penalty) and if we could move out Helm...
Then you could probably go hard after Tavares and Carlson or Johnson.
Though if I did move Kronner, Z and Helm out, and sign Tavares, I think I'd save the cap room for the trade deadline or for next year.
 
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kliq

Registered User
Dec 17, 2017
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On capfriendly, I signed Tavares to 13Mx7y
Franzen to LTIR

Now we have 14M to complete the roster, assuming an $81M cap.

Here are the RFAs to sign
Larkin
Bertuzzi
Frk
Athanasiou
Mantha

Let's play it short with AA and Mantha.
AA gets 2 years x $2.6M
Mantha gets 2x3.8M
Frk, gets $900000
Bert gets $900000
You've got $6M left for Larkin.

So here's your team
Abdelakder Tavares Mantha
Bertuzzi Larkin Athanasiou
Frk Zetterberg Nyquist
Svech Nielsen Helm
Glendening

Dekeyser Jensen
Ericsson Daley
XO Kronwall
Wikowski

Howard.

Lose Green with no replacement.
No backup goalie.
Only 13 forwards.
And you've only got $60,000.

So realistically, no. You can't afford to bid for Tavares.

If Holland did land JT, I would guess its almost a sure thing that certain players are moved/bought out. I would guess Helm is traded with 1mil retained, Glendening possibly traded to TO, and I could see Nyquist being moved. You can still role with JT-Larkin-Z-Nielsen down the middle and look just fine. Or throw Z or Nielsen on the wing and bring up a guy like Turgeon.

There is no doubt that Holland doesn't like to move certain guys, but if he has to I'm sure he would if it meant finally acquiring an elite talent. Or if Draper/Other is the GM, I'm sure they would have no problem moving people.
 

Redder Winger

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May 4, 2017
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If Holland did land JT, I would guess its almost a sure thing that certain players are moved/bought out. I would guess Helm is traded with 1mil retained, Glendening possibly traded to TO, and I could see Nyquist being moved. You can still role with JT-Larkin-Z-Nielsen down the middle and look just fine. Or throw Z or Nielsen on the wing and bring up a guy like Turgeon.

There is no doubt that Holland doesn't like to move certain guys, but if he has to I'm sure he would if it meant finally acquiring an elite talent. Or if Draper/Other is the GM, I'm sure they would have no problem moving people.

If Z retires, I expect the Red Wings to go hard after JT.
And I'd put Z retiring at over 60 percent right now.
If they can find an LTIR for him and Kronwall (is it even legal to have 3 guys like Franzen, Kronner and Z on LTIR?), then the coast is clear.
 

kliq

Registered User
Dec 17, 2017
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If Z retires, I expect the Red Wings to go hard after JT.
And I'd put Z retiring at over 60 percent right now.
If they can find an LTIR for him and Kronwall (is it even legal to have 3 guys like Franzen, Kronner and Z on LTIR?), then the coast is clear.

There is a limit, but I'm not sure what it is. Franzen's contract is easy to move though. Its a 4mil caphit, with 1 mil in salary. I'm sure Detroit could move it to a team like Arizona.
 
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Pavels Dog

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Feb 18, 2013
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I'm not sure why he would come here. That said, he's too old to dedicate 10 years at 7-10 mil. I know, he's only 27, but that's a lot of NHL miles. Now Barzal on the other hand...

I support a more aggressive rebuild but we've got to maintain some semblance of quality. If it means dumping Helm, Ericsson, ETC. to make room it could be a positive thing to run with more ELC's and a superstar.

With Tavares the timing is just off from where the Wings are at and my guess is he regresses quicker than people want to believe.
We could only do 7 years max, no?

I’d be open to it. I think we’ll have tons of cheap talent hitting the roster in the next 4-5 years, and RFA years beyond. With Z, Kronner, E, Howard etc etc going off the books cap space should be no problem.

If he wants to come here, go for it.
 

kliq

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Dec 17, 2017
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Would be more entertaining thats for sure, but this team isn't going anywhere without some better defensemen

That's why this draft lottery next month is the most important draft lottery of for us since the 80's. We land Dahlin, I really do think that is the first major domino to fall in our resurgence.

I don't think we get him, but I will be glued to my TV when they announce it.
 

kliq

Registered User
Dec 17, 2017
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We could only do 7 years max, no?

I’d be open to it. I think we’ll have tons of cheap talent hitting the roster in the next 4-5 years, and RFA years beyond. With Z, Kronner, E, Howard etc etc going off the books cap space should be no problem.

If he wants to come here, go for it.

I think so, unless NYI "trade him" to us just before July 1st.
 

Pavels Dog

Registered User
Feb 18, 2013
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Sweden
I don't understand, why would Tavares come to Detroit?

Detroit is dead in the water the next few years until they (hopefully) hit on these next few drafts where they've stockpiled early picks and will be picking top 5 to top 10 in the draft.
What contender can afford him?
 

FMichael

Registered User
Dec 22, 2010
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That's why this draft lottery next month is the most important draft lottery of for us since the 80's. We land Dahlin, I really do think that is the first major domino to fall in our resurgence.

I don't think we get him, but I will be glued to my TV when they announce it.
Agreed.

This is gonna be 1 of the most interesting spring/summers in years concerning the NHL.

Tavares - a legit All-Star calibre center is certainly gonna entertain offers from rival clubs...A draft that not only boasts a wealth of talent, but it's #1 prospect is in the likes of a Lidstrom/Karlsson mold...And speaking of Karlsson - we all know he'll be on the market since Melnyk wants to summon the spirits of 'Dollar' Bill Wirtz.

What really makes me salivate most - is the thought of winning the lottery, and making a trade for Karlsson...Nuthin against Tavares, but is there anyone elese other than me that wouldn't love the dynamic Swedes on our blueline?

But signing Tavares would be nothing less than awesome...He'd instantly makes our craptacular wingers better.
 
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WingedWheel1987

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Jan 11, 2011
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It would be a mistake. Before offering any long term contract to anyone, the Wings should be asking themselves, "Will this player still be worth it 5-7 years from now." Cause that's when we can expect the Wings to finish their rebuild.
 
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