Worst goal-scorer (and playmaker) among post-expansion HOF forwards

[Hockey Outsider]

In a recent thread, I made an offhand comment stating that Adam Oates was an "incredibly poor goal-scorer by the standards of HOF forwards". I wanted to see if I could quantify that.

Population - I'm looking at HOF forwards who had substantially all of their prime post-expansion. I excluded players who had most (or all) of their prime prior to the 1967-68 season (including, for example, Gordie Howe and Bobby Hull). This is because it was easier to get closer to the top of the scoring race pre-expansion. I also included players who are locks for the Hall and who have had careers that are 10+ years long (thereby excluding McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon, Kucherov, etc).

Method - I looked at where each of these players finished in goals in their top seven seasons in goal-scoring. (Why seven? Why not, seven?) The top seasons, as I've defined it, are based on where they ranked in goal-scoring (not raw totals). Therefore Steve Yzerman's 35 goal 2000 campaign (where he ranked 11th in goals) is included, but his 39 goal 1984 season (where he ranked 25th) isn't.

Example - Mats Sundin finished 2nd, 8th, 10th, 11th, 14th, 15th and 17th in goals in his seven best seasons. His "score" is 11.0.

Disclaimers - as is usually the case with big tables of statistics, there's important context that isn't necessarily captured in the numbers. This is based on scoring finishes; it doesn't take into account a player's innate talent, or artistry (hence Pavel Bure is ranked behind Jarome Iginla). There's also a margin of error that should be applied (nobody should argue that, say, Steve Shutt is better than Mark Messier because 13.3 < 13.9). Playoffs are excluded in this analysis.

Click to read more...

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	Average
Alex Ovechkin	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.0
Phil Esposito	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.1
Wayne Gretzky	1	1	1	1	1	4	4	1.9
Mike Bossy	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	2.0
Mario Lemieux	1	1	1	3	3	3	7	2.7
Steven Stamkos	1	1	2	2	2	4	7	2.7
Jaromir Jagr	2	2	2	2	3	4	6	3.0
Brett Hull	1	1	1	2	6	8	9	4.0
Marcel Dionne	2	2	3	4	5	5	8	4.1
Teemu Selanne	1	1	1	2	3	10	16	4.9
Steve Yzerman	2	2	3	6	6	6	11	5.1
Guy Lafleur	1	2	2	2	3	7	23	5.7
Luc Robitaille	4	4	6	7	7	9	9	6.6
Jarome Iginla	1	1	3	3	11	14	16	7.0
Michel Goulet	2	4	4	5	6	9	19	7.0
Pavel Bure	1	1	1	3	5	15	26	7.4
Yvan Cournoyer	4	6	7	7	8	9	12	7.6
Sidney Crosby	1	1	7	7	12	13	14	7.9
Jari Kurri	1	2	3	5	14	15	17	8.1
Joe Sakic	2	5	6	6	10	15	16	8.6
Brendan Shanahan	5	6	6	9	10	13	13	8.9
Rod Gilbert	4	7	8	9	10	11	17	9.4
Marian Hossa	4	5	5	6	12	16	19	9.6
Mike Gartner	5	9	9	9	10	11	14	9.6
Lanny McDonald	2	4	5	6	15	18	20	10.0
Jean Ratelle	5	6	7	11	13	15	17	10.6
Pat LaFontaine	5	5	11	11	12	13	17	10.6
Patrick Kane	2	5	5	10	11	19	22	10.6
Mats Sundin	2	8	10	11	14	15	17	11.0
Darryl Sittler	6	8	9	12	14	15	17	11.6
Evgeni Malkin	2	4	4	13	14	19	27	11.9
Eric Lindros	6	7	9	9	12	20	22	12.1
Joe Nieuwendyk	5	5	7	7	9	23	29	12.1
Dino Ciccarelli	4	5	13	14	15	16	21	12.6
Gilbert Perreault	6	7	7	9	11	18	32	12.9
Bill Barber	5	7	12	13	14	18	22	13.0
Cam Neely	2	3	8	9	19	24	26	13.0
Dale Hawerchuk	7	7	10	12	15	19	21	13.0
Steve Shutt	1	3	8	10	13	28	30	13.3
Joe Mullen	5	7	10	13	15	22	23	13.6
Jacques Lemaire	4	11	13	15	17	17	20	13.9
Mark Messier	8	9	9	9	14	21	27	13.9
Patrick Marleau	4	6	11	11	21	23	25	14.4
Bryan Trottier	5	5	8	14	19	26	27	14.9
Paul Kariya	4	7	9	10	19	26	31	15.1
Dave Andreychuk	4	9	12	17	18	22	30	16.0
Peter Stastny	11	11	11	13	18	20	30	16.3
Glenn Anderson	3	4	9	16	26	27	30	16.4
Mark Recchi	9	11	14	16	19	20	26	16.4
Mike Modano	8	8	15	16	18	25	26	16.6
Martin St. Louis	4	5	16	20	21	25	28	17.0
Sergei Fedorov	3	12	15	19	24	26	28	18.1
Jonathan Toews	5	14	16	19	21	26	31	18.9
Daniel Sedin	4	16	25	25	27	29	31	22.4
Daniel Alfredsson	9	9	9	12	39	41	43	23.1
Patrik Elias	4	10	11	27	33	33	45	23.3
Patrice Bergeron	14	15	16	19	32	33	35	23.4
Denis Savard	9	13	15	25	30	34	41	23.9
Bobby Clarke	12	13	16	24	40	41	47	27.6
Clark Gillies	15	17	20	23	27	39	59	28.6
Pavel Datsyuk	19	23	25	34	37	43	52	33.3
Henrik Zetterberg	5	12	27	27	54	71	71	38.1
Bernie Federko	15	26	28	37	44	49	69	38.3
Joe Thornton	12	16	29	48	49	60	60	39.1
Peter Forsberg	26	31	38	39	41	49	52	39.4
Ron Francis	37	39	39	43	44	45	54	43.0
Doug Gilmour	10	34	37	45	58	64	65	44.7
Ryan Getzlaf	15	41	43	60	64	70	107	57.1
Adam Oates	19	40	53	64	76	85	85	60.3
Guy Carbonneau	67	80	84	92	114	118	119	96.3
Henrik Sedin	25	87	93	103	107	130	138	97.6
Bob Gainey	84	100	112	114	121	124	135	112.9
Igor Larionov	88	94	130	134	141	161	180	132.6
Sergei Makarov	33	50	82	85	125	136	609	160.0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Commentary:

• The top of the list is a who's who of the greatest goal-scorers post expansion. Ovechkin gets 1.0, which is the highest possible score. Stamkos looks really good by this measure.
• 78% of the players (58 of 74) end up under with a result under 25. That's still a broad range (spanning everything from Ovechkin & Gretzky to Bergeron & Toews). After that, there are nine players in the range of 25 to 45. All of them can be described as pass-first players (except for Clarke Gillies, who's routinely considered one of the weakest HOF forwards post-expansion, and realistically isn't in the Hall for his regular season offense). Most of them were strong playoff performers (Thornton being the obvious exception) and most of them were good two-way players (Gillies, Federko and Thornton being the exceptions).
• The bottom seven players have scores over 45. I think four of them are "special cases". We should exclude Carbonneau and Gainey, who are in the Hall due to their defensive play and strong playoff resumes (nothing to do with regular season offense). We should also exclude Larionov and Makarov, who peaked in the Soviet leagues and only came to the NHL when they were clearly past their primes.
• That leaves us with three players (who spent virtually all of their careers in the NHL, and weren't defensive specialists) - Ryan Getzlaf, Adam Oates, and Henrik Sedin. I was surprised by how similar Getzlaf and Oates looked, according to this metric.
• I was surprised by how much weaker Henrik Sedin was than either of Oates and Getzlaf. In his 2nd best season (in terms of goal-scoring rank), he was only 87th in the NHL. Even Oates had seven years better than that. Of course, it's not even certain that Sedin will make the Hall (and, frankly, if it does, I think it will be partly due to the "story" of him and his twin having very good careers together). But it could be a very long time before we see another HOF forward with such a poor goal-scoring resume.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Here's a similar table, except for assists, looking at exactly the same players:

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	Average
Wayne Gretzky	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.0
Joe Thornton	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	1.6
Phil Esposito	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	1.6
Mario Lemieux	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	1.7
Adam Oates	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	1.9
Jaromir Jagr	1	1	1	3	3	3	5	2.4
Henrik Sedin	1	1	1	4	4	5	8	3.4
Sidney Crosby	1	2	2	2	3	7	7	3.4
Ron Francis	1	1	3	4	4	5	7	3.6
Bryan Trottier	1	1	4	5	5	5	5	3.7
Marcel Dionne	2	2	3	3	3	4	9	3.7
Bobby Clarke	1	1	3	4	5	6	8	4.0
Joe Sakic	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	4.3
Peter Stastny	2	3	4	4	6	6	9	4.9
Peter Forsberg	1	2	3	4	6	9	10	5.0
Martin St. Louis	1	1	2	5	7	9	11	5.1
Guy Lafleur	1	2	2	3	3	5	21	5.3
Ryan Getzlaf	3	3	4	5	7	7	8	5.3
Mark Messier	2	3	5	6	6	8	11	5.9
Bernie Federko	4	5	6	7	7	7	8	6.3
Rod Gilbert	2	6	6	6	7	9	9	6.4
Doug Gilmour	2	2	5	6	8	11	12	6.6
Jean Ratelle	3	3	5	7	9	10	11	6.9
Patrick Kane	3	3	5	6	8	9	14	6.9
Denis Savard	2	3	3	6	7	12	18	7.3
Dale Hawerchuk	4	4	5	6	8	13	13	7.6
Steve Yzerman	3	3	7	7	10	11	13	7.7
Gilbert Perreault	3	4	5	8	9	11	15	7.9
Evgeni Malkin	1	3	6	10	11	14	16	8.7
Mark Recchi	1	4	7	9	12	15	17	9.3
Pavel Datsyuk	2	5	8	8	9	14	31	11.0
Henrik Zetterberg	4	5	7	7	16	20	21	11.4
Mike Bossy	4	6	9	11	13	13	24	11.4
Darryl Sittler	2	8	11	14	15	15	19	12.0
Jari Kurri	9	9	10	13	13	15	17	12.3
Daniel Alfredsson	8	11	13	13	13	17	21	13.7
Paul Kariya	3	8	12	18	19	20	21	14.4
Teemu Selanne	4	7	9	9	10	31	33	14.7
Daniel Sedin	3	3	11	14	20	32	34	16.7
Mike Modano	4	13	17	17	21	23	23	16.9
Mats Sundin	10	14	15	18	23	24	25	18.4
Eric Lindros	4	6	9	21	23	25	51	19.9
Alex Ovechkin	6	6	10	20	29	35	39	20.7
Jacques Lemaire	6	12	13	16	31	34	35	21.0
Luc Robitaille	10	13	13	20	23	33	39	21.6
Sergei Fedorov	9	11	19	21	24	30	38	21.7
Patrik Elias	7	9	19	26	32	32	47	24.6
Yvan Cournoyer	13	20	25	27	32	33	35	26.4
Steven Stamkos	9	19	20	22	26	42	49	26.7
Marian Hossa	12	14	15	23	37	38	54	27.6
Pat LaFontaine	2	28	28	31	32	38	42	28.7
Jarome Iginla	10	17	18	27	27	50	58	29.6
Jonathan Toews	22	25	29	31	32	38	45	31.7
Glenn Anderson	9	17	29	34	36	41	63	32.7
Michel Goulet	8	13	30	31	36	55	60	33.3
Brett Hull	11	19	36	41	42	50	57	36.6
Igor Larionov	14	28	28	32	41	41	73	36.7
Dave Andreychuk	25	28	29	34	39	53	53	37.3
Lanny McDonald	13	26	33	34	37	55	64	37.4
Dino Ciccarelli	21	30	30	33	38	46	65	37.6
Joe Mullen	12	27	37	44	45	50	54	38.4
Brendan Shanahan	30	31	33	41	45	47	53	40.0
Bill Barber	9	23	41	50	54	55	55	41.0
Patrice Bergeron	28	32	35	47	50	56	59	43.9
Patrick Marleau	25	39	44	45	49	55	69	46.6
Mike Gartner	27	37	41	51	55	58	72	48.7
Pavel Bure	32	35	48	52	54	57	72	50.0
Steve Shutt	24	40	46	48	61	71	75	52.1
Joe Nieuwendyk	22	29	52	54	69	70	71	52.4
Clark Gillies	12	13	43	70	77	109	142	66.6
Cam Neely	54	72	74	86	136	143	178	106.1
Guy Carbonneau	93	99	103	121	133	135	142	118.0
Sergei Makarov	13	28	29	73	96	143	681	151.9
Bob Gainey	153	167	172	179	187	193	201	178.9

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Commentary:

• We're talking about playmaking, so obviously Gretzky is first. The table doesn't consider the degree of domination, so Gretzky doesn't look that far ahead of Thornton, Oates, etc - but make no mistake, he's vastly ahead of them by any reasonable definition.
• Between 30 and 45 (an arbitrary range, but similar to what I looked at for goal-scoring), we have a mixed bag. Some are two-way stars with strong playoff resumes (Bergeron and Toews). Many of the rest are shoot-first players, ranging from one of the greatest goal-scorers ever (Hull), an all-time great power forward (Shanahan), and a bunch of players who are generally considered lower-tier HOF'ers (Andreychuk, McDonald, Ciccarelli - even Anderson and Mullen are close to that border).
• At the bottom off the list, we have ten players under 45. Again, there's a mixed bag. We have the same two defensive specialists who were also near the bottom of the previous list (Gainey and Carbonneau). We have Makarov, who spent most of his best years in the Soviet leagues (though note that Larinov does much better here). Gartner and especially Marleau will make the Hall due to longevity (I don't think Marleau deserves a spot, but it feels like the media has already anointed him). Shutt and Nieuwendyk were also shoot-first players; both were supporting players who played on a bunch of winning teams. Then there's Bure, who was a better passer than the numbers here suggest, but his career was plagued by injuries (he only played in 70+ games five times), and he had so little offensive talent around him during his time in Florida.
• Clark Gillies is near the bottom of this list. Given the amount of ice time he received playing with Trottier, Bossy and Potvin, it's surprising that his numbers are so poor. His top two seasons are quite good (roughly on par with Goulet, Hossa and Iginla), but there's a fast drop-off. He had 10 seasons of 70+ games, so I don't think it's fair to attribute that to injuries. Only topping the relatively pedestrian 40 assist mark three times, spending his entire career in the high-scoring late 1970's to late 1980's, getting significant ice time on one of the greatest teams ever - Gillies really should have been able to garner more assists.
• Cam Neely is last by a wide margin (excluding the defensive specialists and Makarov). His poor showing makes more sense to me than Gillies'. Neely spent most of his best years next to Adam Oates, one of the purest playmakers in NHL history (so it makes sense that Neely would focus more on shooting than Gillies - who got significant ice time with Mike Bossy). Neely only had five seasons with 70+ games (and two more of exactly 69) - and two of those were in Vancouver, before he was a star. Statistically, Neely is the worst playmaking forward in the HOF (post expansion), but I think given the length of his career and role on the team, Gillies' numbers are more disappointing.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Love when you do these deep dives, @Hockey Outsider!

 

[Hockey Outsider]

This is a comparison of where the players rank on both lists:

HOF forwards most skewed towards goal-scoring

Player	Goals	Assists	"Balance"
Pavel Bure	16	67	-51
Brett Hull	8	56	-48
Steven Stamkos	5	49	-44
Mike Gartner	23	66	-43
Alex Ovechkin	1	43	-42
Michel Goulet	14	55	-41
Brendan Shanahan	21	62	-41
Jarome Iginla	14	52	-38
Joe Nieuwendyk	32	69	-37
Cam Neely	36	71	-35

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

HOF forwards most skewed towards assists

Player	Goals	Assists	Balance
Adam Oates	69	5	64
Henrik Sedin	71	7	64
Joe Thornton	64	2	62
Ron Francis	66	9	57
Ryan Getzlaf	68	17	51
Peter Forsberg	65	15	50
Bobby Clarke	59	12	47
Doug Gilmour	67	22	45
Bernie Federko	63	20	43
Martin St. Louis	51	16	35

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Most balanced HOF forwards

Player	Goals	Assists	Balance
Wayne Gretzky	3	1	2
Evgeni Malkin	31	29	2
Mario Lemieux	5	4	1
Jaromir Jagr	7	6	1
Rod Gilbert	22	21	1
Sergei Makarov	74	73	1
Phil Esposito	2	2	0
Jonathan Toews	53	53	0
Marcel Dionne	9	10	-1
Guy Carbonneau	70	72	-2
Bob Gainey	72	74	-2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There you have it - proof that Bob Gainey gave us pretty much the same level of offensive balance as Marcel Dionne.

 

[morehockeystats]

How about to do the same per game?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

How about to do the same per game?

A good idea - but will save that one for another day.

 

[spcastlemagic]

As a Pens fan, love to see how "balanced" Lemieux, Malkin, and Jagr are. Truly special offensive talents that could beat you any way.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Outstanding work again. I have about a dozen of your threads bookmarked for reference, so might as well make this one more.

When I think of balanced forwards, Esposito always comes to mind, largely based on his 76 G and 76 A season. Interesting that my assumption isn't too far off.

Iginla stands out to me. I always viewed him as a goal-scorer, but also a good playmaker. I guess he wasn't quite the playmaker of my memory.

Stamkos, as a goal-scorer, continues to stand out. We focus a lot on Ovechkin, rightly so, but Stamkos has an argument for the second best goal-scorer of the last 20 years.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Outstanding work again. I have about a dozen of your threads bookmarked for reference, so might as well make this one more.

When I think of balanced forwards, Esposito always comes to mind, largely based on his 76 G and 76 A season. Interesting that my assumption isn't too far off.

Iginla stands out to me. I always viewed him as a goal-scorer, but also a good playmaker. I guess he wasn't quite the playmaker of my memory.

Stamkos, as a goal-scorer, continues to stand out. We focus a lot on Ovechkin, rightly so, but Stamkos has an argument for the second best goal-scorer of the last 20 years.

Thanks! Most people generally don't think about Esposito when the "greatest playmaker" question comes up, but his numbers are really impressive.

Iginla's assist totals aren't as good as expected. But he's had one of the very worst supporting casts for a HOF forward over the past ~50 years. It makes sense for him to be the finisher rather than, say Kristian Huselius, Daymond Langkow, or Craig Conroy.

 

[NigerianNightmare]

A very interesting method.

Ovechkin and Gretzky got that perfect 1.0 score.

Does that mean these two are the most dominant and consistent forwards in the post-expansion NHL?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

A very interesting method.

Ovechkin and Gretzky got that perfect 1.0 score.

Does that mean these two are the most dominant and consistent forwards in the post-expansion NHL?

It doesn't necessarily reflect dominance (since a player gets credit for finishing 1st in either category whether they tie for the lead, or are 50 points ahead of 2nd place). But yes, it reflects consistency over the player's best seven years. Ovechkin's perfect score reflects the fact that he led the league in goals in all of his seven best seasons (he doesn't even get credit for his two additional goal-scoring titles). Same with Gretzky for assists (he gets the max score here, but that still doesn't give him full credit since he led the league in assists more than 7 times).

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Outstanding work again. I have about a dozen of your threads bookmarked for reference, so might as well make this one more.

When I think of balanced forwards, Esposito always comes to mind, largely based on his 76 G and 76 A season. Interesting that my assumption isn't too far off.

Iginla stands out to me. I always viewed him as a goal-scorer, but also a good playmaker. I guess he wasn't quite the playmaker of my memory.

Stamkos, as a goal-scorer, continues to stand out. We focus a lot on Ovechkin, rightly so, but Stamkos has an argument for the second best goal-scorer of the last 20 years.

Sorry I seem to have missed this message.

Yes, I think if you're going back 20 years, Stamkos has a good case for being the 2nd greatest goal-scorer during that time. Assuming we include the 2001-02 seasons, obviously Ovechkin is first, and then probably you'd have some combination of Stamkos, Kovalchuk, Crosby and Iginla rounding out the top five. (Matthews could end up 2nd on that list, but he's not there yet).

As for Esposito - people tend not to think of him as a great playmaker, at least in a traditional sense, but his numbers are really impressive. I think there's a middle ground with him. On the one hand, he's not as good as his assist totals make him look (there's some boost due to him playing 25 minutes per game with peak Bobby Orr). On the other hand, I think people unfairly judge him based on his style (you tend not to associate a slow, hulking player with great passing). He couldn't make a play out of nothing the way that Oates, Jagr or Crosby could (all of whom are ranked lower by this metric) but he was still a very effective passer.

 

[GRob83]

Based on this method of averaging the 7 best goal scoring finishes, Peter Bondra would be 13th with a score of 6.43 yet he didn't even come close to the Hall of Fame. I've long thought he should be there, this list confirms it.